Tuesday, January 1, 2019

Welcome to the year in which Nicola Sturgeon will *probably* renew her demand for a Section 30 order

As I've said a number of times, political prediction is usually a mug's game, and that could hardly be more true than at this exact moment.  Britain might be about to leave the European Union, or to remain in the European Union for good, or various options in between.  Anybody who says they know for sure what the first three months of this year will bring is deluding themselves.

If most of us had the chance to know just one thing, it would be whether 2019 will be the year in which an independence referendum is called.  But that's the wrong question as far as any hope of making a meaningful prediction is concerned.  There are too many imponderables once the indyref ball is set rolling.  Will London's "now is not the time" line hold?  If it does hold, will the SNP leadership take decisive action to break the logjam, or will we go round in perpetual circles for years to come as we repeatedly secure new mandates for a referendum which are repeatedly ignored?

None of us can know exactly how it will play out, but we'll never get a chance to find out unless Nicola Sturgeon first of all renews her demand for a Section 30 order.  So for now, the most interesting and straightforward question is whether that will happen at some point in 2019.  And it seems to me that, on the balance of probabilities, it will.  There are a few things that could prevent it happening, though -

* A soft Brexit is negotiated which keeps Britain in the single market and customs union indefinitely.  As this has been the SNP's main stated objective throughout most of the last two years, it would be very difficult to press ahead with an indyref if it happened.  But it's highly unlikely - there's no sign of a parliamentary majority for it, and there's a question mark over whether our European partners would faciliate it anyway.

* A "People's Vote" is called.  The odds are still against this, but it's a possibility.  Remember, though, that a Remain vote is by no means a foregone conclusion even if a People's Vote does happen.  A second Leave vote would leave the casus belli for an indyref intact.

* A snap election is called.  If the SNP were to be defeated in a general election - and I mean a genuine defeat rather than the phony unionist triumphalism over the SNP "only" winning 60% of the seats in 2017 - that would obviously make it psychologically much harder to push for a Section 30 order.  But, just like a People's Vote, a general election could go either way - if, as opinion polls currently suggest, the SNP gain seats rather than lose them, the drive for an indyref would have renewed momentum behind it.  It's also possible that a Section 30 request could be made before any snap election anyway.

* Article 50 is extended beyond the end of this year.  That's unlikely - all the mood music suggests that EU countries would only agree to a limited extension for a specific reason (to facilitate a referendum, for example).

* Theresa May's deal is somehow approved, and the SNP leadership then decide to kick the can down the road for another couple of years until Britain's long-term relationship with the EU is decided.  There might be a temptation to do this, but I don't think the rank-and-file SNP membership would stand for it.  They've been patient thus far, but they're not going to accept a "tomorrow never comes" approach.

Taking all of the above into account, I'd suggest there is around a 70% chance that the Section 30 request will be renewed at some point before 31st December of this year, thus returning us to the status quo ante of spring 2017.  And then we'll see.

104 comments:

  1. Reading this post is depressingly like sleepwalking into the apocalypse. If Scotland is a sovereign people with the right to end the Union...act like it.

    NS issued the letter for a section 30 and it has not been rescinded...to do so again is to cast Scotland as mealy region of England.

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    1. You are clearly a misguided person who talks about Scottish sovereignty but wants to hand it to Bruxelles on a plate. Do you Nat sis really want Bruxelles to determine our spending? Do you want locked into the euro? Do you want Scots to join the EU German Franco Army? You claim Scotland is just an English region yet you want us to become a subservient EU region.

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    2. @GLESGA

      OMG, that is hilarious. I never realised how if you string all the Unionist falsehoods together, that they sound even more air-headed.

      Just in case I have misunderstood and that was not a joke post and you where actually serious...please provide a factual support for any of those meaningless sound bites, and how the UK has been subject to any of those conditions while in the EU without its say so.

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    3. Cordelia's drinking again. Is there anything sadder than an elderly alcoholic ranting and raving?

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    4. Clearly Anon you live in the Nat si bubble and anything else happening in politics is evading you. The fact that the UK is preparing for the WTO rules says all about the trade threats from the EU. Perhaps the bully boy tactics against Greece, Ireland etc have not penetrared yer tick skull.

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    5. Andrea GrineyjorpeJanuary 2, 2019 at 7:13 PM

      Oh how we laughed as we read Cordelia's ravings.

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    6. Nat sis are habitual moaners and complainers laughter is unknown tae them.

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    7. We laughed and laughed and laughed. Poor miserable Cordelia makes us laugh so much. Thank you, dear. Cheers!

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    8. @GWC

      I am glad you decided not to waste everyone's time by trying to defend any of @GLESGA's false arguments...but sad to see you instead chose to descend to childish names and just trying to pile on more unfounded innuendo....It was sort of sweet how hollow that false bravado is ...like a school child who hasn't read the book for their book review.

      What ever relationship an independent Scotland chooses to have with the EU is a matter for Scotland. How and why, with whom, and for how long it chooses to a align its sovereignty with will be its right....that is the whole point.

      Me, I only wish the same for every sovereign peoples, who ever they may be.

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    9. Glesga, GWC and an array of characters with mis-spelled or confused names are all part of the repertoire of Cordelia Bracely-Dubois, an entertaining soul but one given over to bizarre assertions after she's downed one too many. When Glesga supports or argues with GWC, it just Cordelia talking to herself, possibly in a slightly squiffy state of mind, having forgotten both personas are herself. She's a treasure.

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    10. A treasure indeed, if fool's gold counts as a treasure, Iain...

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    11. Cordelia is a treasure in her own - special - way. Like golden chocolate coins you gang on a Xmas tree.

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    12. She's a gift that keeps on giving.

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    13. Ahhh... I know this is not fratefully polite, but does the WC in GWC stand for Water Closet? If so, it's pretty apt, as Cordelia Bracegirdle-Thingmie obviously has sh*ite for brains.

      I does have entertainment value, though I do wonder if it's been to see a psychiatrist recently for the help it so clearly needs.

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    14. We've been advising it to seek help for quite some time.
      All we get in response are homophobic and sectarian screams.

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    15. Gentlemen's Water Closet. Cordelia hangs around looking for "action". She doesn't get much. Hence the frustrated ranting.

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  2. So out of interest James, accepting that predicting this is nigh on impossible but speculating anyway is interesting, which of the Brexit options you list do you think will actually be the one that comes to pass?

    Reading between the lines you seem to (reasonably) consider most of them unlikely - but presumably one of the unlikely options has to be what actually happens as I can't think of many other roads for this to go now.

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    1. I didn't list all of the options - just the ones that might head off a Section 30 request. I didn't list No Deal, for example, which would presumably guarantee a Section 30 request.

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  3. Was there ever a formal Section 30 Request either for a binding referendum on independence or for Westminster to protect legislation in devolved areas?

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  4. There's a handy brexit simplifier diagram over at Richard Murphy's blog.

    50p says you can't predict at which point of the diagram NS will do what.
    But rest assured, she won't be doing nothing.


    https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2018/12/30/getting-you-head-around-brexit-as-it-stands-right-now/

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  5. Well, it's all downhill for the UK now. We'll really pick up speed towards the cliff edge. Polls will move quickly as the economy crashes and food/medicines etc start to run low. The delusion is no longer sustainable, so it will all come tumbling down.

    Still, we can summon that 'Dunkirk spirt', which I understand means that in the face of a powerful enemy, you run away as fast as you can and hide behind a great big moat.

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    1. And then you regroup and return to defeat the enemy. It would be Scotlands loss to lose the Faslane Base. It would be relocated.

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    2. Cordelia makes us laugh so much. She's a treasure if only she could reduce her alcohol intake. We worry about the long-term effects on her stability.

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    3. According to some it also means you leave the scots behind as a rearguard.

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    4. Gaurd your own rear and I'll gaurf mine. I hear you nat sis like leaving your rears rears ungaurded.

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    5. Oh dear. Poor homophobic Cordelia's been at the Toilet Duck again...

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    6. Cordelia expressing her hopes and fantasies

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    7. Its fixations are somewhat troubling.

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    8. While your fixated on your euro bum chums rear ends. Tally whore chaps. We're going in.

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    9. Hammered and shrieking abuse at that time in the morning. Poor, drunken, homophobic Cordelia.

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  6. I don't think there will be a section 30 request this side of a GE. Time is too short. The previous request required a year to negotiate and agree (2012), a further year before implementation (Dec 2013) and a further nine months before the referendum was held. And that was under a majority coalition govt which was prepared to look sympathetically at the request. Things are very different now...

    Even if the timescale were repeated (overlooking the small matter of Holyrood elections in 2021 and a gaining renewed mandate), we'd be looking at an independence referendum in 2022 - the year of the next GE

    It's not going to happen. The opportunity it gives for a minority Westminster government to prevaricate and obstruct without ever actually saying No is far too great.

    We need to do this the old fashioned way - by winning majorities on a manifesto for direct independence negotiations

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    1. I agree on some things. I doubt the practicalities would take so long this time as there's a clear precedent in place that could pretty much just be photocopied for this time around. In the event that May still prevaricates though, I'd be pretty comfortable with a GE mandate. We could win a majority of seats to begin the negotiations and even allow for a confirmatory referendum afterwards. I know a lot of folk hate that idea because it incentivises rUK to offer us a lousy deal. However, Trident is an enormously powerful card in our hand, while a lot of stuff around the border, trade and defence would largely be governed by the more rational self-interest of NATO and the EU than by angry English Nationalism. NATO, for example, would not tolerate a defence vacuum being created in the North Atlantic. It is the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, after all. Meanwhile, we'll immediately fall into Single Market rules, so our trade with rUK will only get as much worse as rEU's does.

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    2. "We need to do this the old fashioned way - by winning majorities on a manifesto for direct independence negotiations" Yes, then we won’t have to listen to this once in a lifetime mantra.

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    3. I've no objection to seeking a direct mandate via an election, but the notion that there isn't enough time for a pre-2021 referendum is obviously bogus. It could be held by the spring if the will was there on both sides.

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    4. Just repeal the Treeaty of Union, it has been changed out of all recognition over the last 300 years, to suit England, by Westminster. Use the power of sovereignty of the Scottish people.

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  7. Here's a firm prediction: if the Scots don't demand independence within the next, say, 18 months -- they will not do so within my lifetime........
    Only slightly less firm is my belief that the Brexit terms will be those Mrs May has negotiated.

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  8. "Anybody who knows for sure..." May's Deal, No Deal, Hard or Soft: these 'negotiations' are about what happens after we leave on March 29th. Brexit was an executive decision made by the Government and ratified by the Sovereign without publicity or discussion at any other than the secrecy levels long before the decision to have a "consultative" referendum on EU membership was put forward. The delusion is in hoping that this is not true, sorry to say. A rich individual with 6 billion stashed off-shore stands to have a tax bill of 5 billion over the next 20 years if we stay in - and the equivalent is true for multinational companies as well.

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  9. Correct James Morris. It's all about the money. This does however, raise an interesting question. How much would Scottish independence cost these billionaires?
    I would suggest it would cost them very little. We know they do not care if the poor simply starve so if England descends into a low wage/slave labour state, they won't loose any sleep over it.
    They do not get the oil revenues, that goes to Westminster.
    They do however get returns on their investment to stick, untaxed, into their offshore accounts. That may change a little after Scottish independence but I would suggest not by very much.
    I believe that after the UK leaves the EU and these very rich people have secured the right to protect their billions from the tax man, they will not be too concerned about fighting the Scottish drive for independence.

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  10. A state which was once a major global military power has fallen so far, and turned so inwards, it is now in a blind panic over a of a handful of desperate refugees in wee boats. The 'Great big beautiful wall' [aka brexit) is already under construction.

    And as workers from educated EU countries officially 'flood out the exit gates' in their hundreds of thousands, so the major labour shortages begin, with the economy grinding to a halt.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46736969

    But don't worry, I'm sure sending all the foreigners back to where they came from will magically give all us unicorns, sorry well-paid jobs, soon. We just need to wait for Sajid Javid’s cap on EU immigrants to take effect. That will reverse the current mass emigration and we can just pick and choose those smelly furriners we can tolerate in our glorious Great Britain; the greatest country ever in the history of the world.

    #LastDaysofRome

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The wee boats could be carrying killers. Why would Iranians want to leave their wonderful world of Allah!

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    2. Poor deluded racist Cordelia. The only unionist troll too gormless to get someone to pay it for trolling...

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    3. Must be something good about the UK though. Otherwise why travel through past /through EU countries to claim asylum in the UK (risking your life crossing the channel in the process?) why not just claim asylum in France or any other EU country?

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    4. The seekers have heard old seventies news where you get benefits and work is not required.

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    5. Glesga2 Jimmy SozzledJanuary 5, 2019 at 10:20 AM

      There nat si supporters hope the boat spongers will give them a hard deal. That will pay four there bedding board.

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    6. Too drunk to ask its overlords to pay it for trolling.
      Snivelling, guttered Cordelia.

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  11. This site is now infested with Yoon disease You have that Brain Dead Leper GWC who is actually a wee Tory lassie and another one who hides behind anon. it is a bit tiresome having these clowns on here but the spout so much Yoon nonsense if you didn't laugh you would maybe feel sorry for the deluded halfwits.

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    1. Paul Wilson actually laughs! That is new for Nat sis!! You will not be laughing when we leave the EU ya street corner bum bhoy.

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    2. We can always rely on Cordelia to be homophobic and sectarian in the same ill-informed rant.

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  12. Where does a 30 section order come into the treaty of the union of the two parliaments, it must have been inserted by westminster against the claim of rights upheld by a vote in westmister parliament in July 2018.

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  13. Hard tae believe the EU Charlatans will be replaced and intelligent people are missing to oppose them.

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    1. Incoherent as usual. I blame the Toilet Duck.

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  14. How come Ireland is growing economically much faster than the UK, has a much higher GDP per capita, real wage growth, much better pensions...even a budget surplus?

    I thought the UK was supposed to be the 'strong and stable' option? Seems instead it's part of the, what's it called, 'Erse of Insolvency'?

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    1. When are you moving to ROI skier? Playing the old Nat si game again. Every country you can dream up is far better than the UK Greece included.

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    2. Poor Cordelia. The only unionist troll too dim-witted to get anyone to pay it for trolling.

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  15. Just as the brexiters hoped for, they're 'Going back to where they came from’.

    <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-university/ahead-of-brexit-top-british-universities-enrol-fewer-eu-students-idUKKCN1OY0PL>https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-university/ahead-of-brexit-top-british-universities-enrol-fewer-eu-students-idUKKCN1OY0PL</a>

    <b>Ahead of Brexit, top British universities enrol fewer EU students</b>

    <i>LONDON (Reuters) - The number of European Union students enrolling in Britain’s leading universities fell by 3 percent in the 2018/2019 academic year, with the biggest drop hitting postgraduate research courses.

    The Russell Group of 24 leading British universities, which includes Oxford, Cambridge, Imperial College London and the London School of Economics, said there was a 5 percent drop in the number of EU postgraduate taught students, and a 9 percent drop in postgraduate research students.

    The numbers were released as a broader group of UK universities warned that the sector, contributing around 21 billion pounds to the economy and supporting 944,000 jobs, would take decades to recover if Britain leaves the European Union without a deal in March this year.</i>


    The postgrads of are the ones with the most chance of earning 30k following graduation.

    But don't listen to me, I've only 19 years in the sector, so no first-hand experience or anything.


    When you tell people they're not wanted in your home...that they'll have to fill out long forms to get in...pay for the pleasure...yet maybe refused entry. That their families are not wanted. That they're queue jumpers and scroungers... Well, they won't come any more. Not the skilled/educated ones from developed countries anyway.


    You'll still get the desperate ones from war torn and poverty stricken countries. They’ll still try to get in, crossing the channel in wee boats etc. For them, being racially abused / discriminated against is still better than starving, being bombed etc.

    Nicola Sturgeon understands this all too well. Fuckwit May clearly doesn’t.

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    1. Go on skier pitch a marque in yer gerden for well aff so called refugees while the Scottish working class Q at food banks and the Taxpayer funds an over abundance of politicians in Holyrood.

      Delete
    2. Poor Cordelia. The only unionist troll too dim-witted to get anyone to pay it for trolling.
      Still, it's free entertainment for the rest of us.

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    3. Wee Jimmy and Aggie far the DrumJanuary 5, 2019 at 11:03 AM

      Brexit will make crap countries open there universtuniv and make them better for there own poncey students. Instead of them flooding in here so the Nat sis
      Can look good. We don't need univershities just so middle class English can boast about there thick sprigs. Get a job.

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    4. What a drunken omnishambles Cordelia is.

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  16. As always I agree with every word you say Skier. It's also good to know that not all governments are run by xenophobic racists.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/04/uk-nationals-in-italy-assured-of-residency-in-event-of-no-brexit-deal

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    1. Arf!Arf! Italy not run by "xenophobic racists".
      It's one of the places where Unionism went too far (like the place where Prussia joined Bavaria). But it's Yoonropean and you won't find the regionalist Mrs Murrell arguing back against that. More likely to be cowering from some Ottoman imperialist at a book festival.

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  17. The 'sunlit uplands' now on the horizon.

    ----

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-pmi/brexit-worries-slow-uk-growth-to-near-standstill-idUKKCN1OY0QN

    Brexit worries slow UK growth to near standstill

    LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s economic growth slowed to a crawl at the end of 2018 and the housing market is stalling, according to data published on Friday, less than three months before Brexit...

    ...Overall, Britain’s economy looks on track for quarterly growth of just 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, data company IHS Markit estimated, based on its monthly purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surveys of businesses.

    November and December were the weakest two months for morale among services firms, which make up the bulk of the economy, since March 2009 — around the low point of Britain’s last recession — the PMI indicated

    ---

    Unemployment on the way up already of course in earnest. It was that + a trashed economy that really helped lead to the 2011 victory for the SNP. It was also the following reversal of UK economic fortunes, with unemployment falling from 2013 while growth returned, that helped save the it in 2014. For #iref2, the unionists will, by contrast, be trying to sell a huge steaming bag of unemployed, emtpy shelved, xeophobic, devolution destroying right-wing English nationalist shite to Scots. Yes will also be starting from close to or an actual Yes 'tomorrow' base too.

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  18. @Scottish skier

    "How come Ireland is growing economically much faster than the UK, has a much higher GDP per capita, real wage growth, much better pensions...even a budget surplus?"

    I'll tell you why...

    Because Ireland doesn't have the burden of Europe's largest supply of oil, like Scotland does. Norway has a bit less oil that Scotland, but it's good oil rather than nasty worthless Jockoil, which is due to run out in 1974, 1982, 1988, 1994, 1999, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2011, 2015, etc.

    Norway made a paltry £130bn profit from it's oil fund last year - which is four times what Westminster drops in Scotlands begging bowl each year to pay for stuff in Scotland (or twice what Westminster says it takes in taxes from Scots). And don't tell me it isn't worth letting Westminster keep that extra tax, because if we didn't give them it then we wouldn't have the worst pension in the developing world.

    We'd have a crappy pension like they do in Ireland where they get more money.

    Unlike Norway, Scotland doesn't make a profit from it's oil and actually has to pay £100s of millions to companies like Shell and BP to take the filthy stuff away.

    Luckily we have the broad shoulders of the UK to manage this for us. Can you imagine how crap it would be if we had to manage our own oil, like Norway?

    Another example is whisky.

    Ireland has the world's most profitable whisky industry. It exports a staggering 7 million cases worldwide, which nets it $1.4bn.

    Scotland in comparision sells only 90 million cases of whisky worldwide. But although we export such a pittance, we get a share of the £4.3bn profits the UK tells us it makes from those 90 million cases. Probably.

    In addition to having no oil except Jockoil (and sadly they recently found the world's biggest field west of Shetland - so we'll have to dig deep to pay them to take that away) and no ability to match Ireland in terms of drinks sales, Scotland tragically has a superabundance of energy, making it the only energy exporting country in Europe.

    It also has no tourism or video games industry. And a trade surplus to contend with.

    All these together explain why Scotland, which is given a fixed budget from Westminster and therefore not able to run a deficit, runs a £13bn defecit, thus demonstrating our inability manage our own economy, and showing why our ecomony must continue to be run from Westminster.

    Yes, Ireland is doing better, but that's because Jocks are too poor and too stupid. Just think how much better Ireland would be doing if it was run by another country that puts the needs of the wealthy elite who live in that country above everyone else. You only have to look at poverty-stricken Northern Ireland, run by the UK, which is outpacing Ireland in every way that isn't measured in terms of wealth or happiness or other positive things.

    Imagine the catastrophe if us Jocks got what we voted for?

    We wouldn't be able to participate in Brexit which our neighbouring country has decided we're getting. Even if we lose our jobs and some of us do die from lack of medicine and we have to tell our European-born friends, "If the price of me being allowed to stay on my knees is that you have to leave your home, then sorry, but goodbye".

    Surely it's better to accept all of that - to accept any misery - than to hand Scotland the same rights that every other country enjoys?

    What currency would we use? Jockaroonies? How would we even figure out how to print our own banknotes?

    ReplyDelete
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    1. ...and being puir wee eejit Jocks, we've never even heard of seigniorage, have we? And of course we wouldn't know what to do with our share of the Central Bank of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, would we? They call it the Bank of England because none of the rest of us is capable of running it, you see, so that's why Scotland can never have a lender of last resort.

      Thanks for your contribution, Anonymous, I found it very enjoyable.

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    2. Scotland in comparision sells only 90 million cases of whisky worldwide. But although we export such a pittance, we get a share of the £4.3bn profits the UK tells us it makes from those 90 million cases. Probably.

      4.3bn revenue not profits. A good net profit is 10-15% and taxation is circa 20% of that figure of which Scotland gets 100%.

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    3. * 10-15% of Revenue

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    4. Big Maggie far the EasterhooseJanuary 5, 2019 at 11:07 AM

      You've got to much to say four yourself. And nobody's listening you nat si stooge

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    5. Tanked up and shouting the odds at 11am.
      Poor, miserable, desperate Cordelia.

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  19. Theresa May is supposed to be letting the Westminster Parliament vote on her Brexit deal during the week of 14 January, i.e., the week after next. My feeling is that it will be the key.

    As for negotiating a different Brexit deal, the Europeans are refusing to countenance the idea.

    The Westminster regime may fall as a result of that Brexit vote, if Corbyn has the intestinal fortitude to put in a proper motion of no confidence. In the general election which would follow, the SNP can stand on a platform of a vote for the SNP being a vote for independence - though the official SNP line on that is that a referendum is the way to go.

    If the First Minister wants to renew or insist on her demand for a §30 order, she will have to do it after the Brexit vote during the week of the 14th - it would look very odd if she did it before, because everyone would be wondering "Why now?".

    **BEGIN RANT**

    I thought we would have all this done by Christmas or New Year, but - May delayed the Brexit vote. If there is a GE before 29 March, then independence by a majority at Westminster must be the way to go: no §30 order required. Due account of the total numbers of votes cast nationwide should be taken, but the Scottish Government should not be slavishly bound by them: a majority of SNP MPs and a working majority at Holyrood must suffice under the circumstances: this is still a representative democracy, not a delegative one.

    It is because ours is not a delegative democracy that the likes of Ross Thomson is able to push his ultramontane, Moggish no-deal Brexit line, but it's also how MPs and MSPs are able to protect the rest of us from tyrannies of the majority, and from people's worst instincts; they are a bulwark against the authoritarian demagogues who stir up public anger and alarm to cement their own power - and that's why Theresa May takes every opportunity to sidestep and circumvent even the already appalling Westminster parliament.

    E.g., the arrogation of legislative power to the Cabinet over legislation on aspects of Brexit. When the Executive seizes power from the Legislature, that is not just a wee hint that there might be a problem, it is cause to sound the sirens warning of imminent disaster, because the foundations of our democracy (such as it is) may have been fatally undermined.

    The Westminster regime believes that it has ultimate sovereignty in these islands - some of its hangers-on even seem to believe that the regime's writ should extend to the Republic of Ireland as well. What we thought were rules - such as the Sewel convention, the general right of the Westminster Parliament to scrutinize legislation, the principle of non-interference in the Scottish judicial system - have been treated as nothing more than self-denying ordinances.

    To put it another way, the Westminster regime is out of control. I believe we independentistas should be making that point more frequently and more forcefully as part of our overall message. I don't like negative campaigning either, but how can we put a positive spin on a regime that is quite capable of suspending Holyrood if it makes trouble for it?

    The Westminster regime is an existential threat to our country. We can't save the English from it, for all the well-known reasons, and post-independence we must not even try, because it would be interference in the internal affairs of another sovereign State.

    In the end, the question resolves into a question of sovereignty. The democratically elected Holyrood Parliament represents the will of the Scottish people, and the Scottish people are sovereign in Scotland - and reserved powers be damned. We have allowed successive Westminster regimes to walk all over us and our interests, and they rather too often had no right to do so - they just assumed, they just presumed, and even if they were aware, they dismissed our interests as irrelevant.

    Enough. With Brexit, They have gone a step too far.

    **END RANT**

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    1. You Nat si knobs want the EU tae run Scotland. Who in the Nat si party represents the over a million who voted to leave the EU.

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    2. Much better than Westminster, nobody seems to be able to count there.

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    3. Westminster does not run Scotland but you jock fookwitts want the EU to do so.

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    4. Kenny far the FifeJanuary 6, 2019 at 5:54 PM

      Ejfj. Jesus Christ. What a bore

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    5. Poor Cordelia. The only unionist troll too dim-witted to get anyone to pay it for trolling.

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  20. BetterTogether have issued their first poster for #iref2

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/taking-back-control/

    Going up in GP / Hospital waiting rooms near you.

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    1. Big Cammy far the Castle MilkJanuary 5, 2019 at 12:18 PM

      Send the spongers home and the hospital's will work great. Too many spongers getting drugs off NHS and selling them to guys from Iraq and Africa and they send the prophets to Ben Laden's lot. Let America run NHS and drop all the terrorism over night.

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    2. State of this drunken mess.

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  21. Hey skier why is the Scottish NHS bringing in English NHS workers to relieve waiting lists?

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    1. Provide your evidence.

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    2. We laughed and laughed and laughed.

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  22. Lucky we're getting oot. What with the hordes of migrants down 92%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46764500

    The number of people detected [entering the EU illegally] in 2018 was 92% below that of 2015, when Europe's migration crisis was at its peak.

    #brexit #facepalm

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We run free taxis with drugs supplied to the British working class for the referendum. The clever people were taking the drugs and missed the taxi.

      Delete
    2. Ve hav former Scottish loser politicians vurkin for uz in our magnificent truthful news chanel.

      Delete
    3. Poor Cordelia. The only unionist troll too dim-witted to get anyone to pay it for trolling.
      However, it's always amusing watching it respond to itself after a few Buckies.

      Delete
    4. Cordelia seems to have moved on from the Toilet Duck. Do I detect a bouquet of Staroil unleaded supergrade?

      Delete
    5. I think, based on the barely coherent screams of impotent rage this morning, that Cordelia is having something of a lost weekend.
      It may have chased its Toilet Duck breakfast with turps.
      Comedy gold, though.

      Delete
  23. I believe 34% is labour's lowest since pre-2017 GE?

    UK Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 40% (-1)
    LAB: 34% (-5)
    LDEM: 10% (+3)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 21 Dec - 04 Jan
    Chgs. w/ 17 Dec

    25k sample apparently. In Scotland this is manifesting as a net shift to the SNP and, from what scant data we have, Yes.

    If Labour continue to force brexit (+ the Tories) on Scotland (by not opposing it/them or even facilitating it/them), it will be the final end of them, and so the UK union. Corbyn's supposed 'left revival' was last chance saloon, yet its turned out to be hardcore delusional English nationalism with a decent dash of total incompetence.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The White Lady was my lass when I took my first turns. If you came fae the valley, up the hill was where you spent the school holidays. The Austrian ski school ('bloody furriners') in the village even provided the local kids with skis for free. Was the lifeblood of the community back before thatcher trashed the economy. Only Scots would understand that though.

      Delete
    2. That was in reply to a now removed post from a BetterTogether activist using some typically colourful language, but no harm in folks knowing the moniker origins!

      Delete
  24. I see UK consumer confidence is hitting lows last observed at the end of the 2012 'double dip' recession.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/articles-reports/2019/01/03/uk-consumer-confidence-slumps-unpredictable-common

    Projections of 0.1% growth only for the last quarter of 2018 is setting us up for a potential recession as early as Q1/2 this year.

    Would be the first time in history a UK government (or any government?) had intentionally induced a major economic contraction, and all simply because they don't like furrin lookin folks.

    BetterTogether#2 is going to be a seriously hard sell, especially when we're kicking off at near 50Y/50N rather than 30Y/70N.

    ReplyDelete
  25. @michaelsavage
    Same poll...

    Please imagine that a Brexit deal passes because it is supported by most Conservative MPs and Labour does not instruct its MPs to oppose it. How would you vote at the next election?

    CON 43
    LAB 26
    Lib Dem 16
    SNP/Plaid 5
    Other 10

    ---

    Scots subsample may be interesting!

    As I said, if Labour continues to facilitate brexit, forcing Scotland out of the EU against the will of voters, it will be the end of them in Scotland, and so the end of the union.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scotland is not being forced to leave the EU mafia. It was a UK election and over a million jockos voted leave. I doubt even the Nat sis would want a hard border with their main trading partner.

      Delete
    2. What's wrong with a hard border at Gretna? We can just trade on WTO terms.

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    3. Glasgow UK ScotsmanJanuary 6, 2019 at 10:47 PM

      Great idea skier you have switched on and in such a short statement which is unusual from your previous documentaries!

      Delete
    4. Poor, desperate, tormented Cordelia.
      So bitter.
      So drunk.
      So funny.

      Delete
  26. Given the removal of much of the welfare state in the past 10 years, god help us when the great brecession hits. Whole families on the streets is what we face. Unemployment is already creeping up as we approach the initial contraction in earnest, with EU workers fleeing through the exit gates in their hundreds of thousands. The latter at least can go back to other EU countries for a job or welfare support if needed. For Brits, there'll be no such options, with the UK goverment's 'great big wall' preventing them leaving, while punitive sanctions leave them destitute.

    When a government reduces the free movement of its citizens - as the UK is doing now - it is because bad times are coming and it's trying to stop them escaping. Just look at any country historically that has curtailed the free movement of its citizens. This has never been done for positive reasons, obviously.


    The UK government is about to end your right to freely go and live/work in 27+ other countries. It's going to massively limit your freedoms, tying to a shithole which is entering a serious and extended recession. At the same time, it's slashed welfare meaning when folks lose their jobs - which is inevitable, even in normal economic cycles - they're utterly screwed.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Unemployment is technically only ~4%, yet millions are using foodbanks. Can you imagine what it will be like when the 4% becomes 8%...12%+? Even if the shelves are not empty, people won't be able to buy what's on them. The UK welfare system has been so undermined we're seeing abject poverty while most are in work and growth has been modest, never mind a full blown 1920's type Brepression.

    That is what we're looking at for our calamitous plan-free hardcore English nationalist brexit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What is the Nat si plan on welfare and eradicating foodbanks! I do recall they were prepared to top up welfare payments but this turned into their usual wind.

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    2. http://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/Education/18642.aspx

      "Reserved [to the UK government] matters include:

      Benefits & Social Security..."

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    3. Except they can top up benefits, Scot Gov asked for the powers to do so, got given then and now don't want to use them, very strange.

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    4. ScotGov does spend tens of millions per annum, papering over some of the worse aspects of the UK benefits system, dopey.

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    5. Never heard of this millions per annum money.

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    6. Poor Cordelia. Attention span of a goldfish, blind obedience to Tory doctrine and a Toilet Duck habit are some of the reasons why it's never heard about the work done to mitigate austerity.

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