Thursday, January 17, 2019

No, Lady Hermon's support does not give the government a DUP-proof majority

There's a rather odd little article on the New Statesman website by Patrick Maguire, claiming that Lady Hermon's announcement that she will never back any motion of no confidence means that Labour will have to find a vote on the Tory side if they are ever to have any chance of bringing down the government, even if the DUP change sides.  (The implication being they've got very little chance.)  But in fact there's nothing remotely new about what Lady Hermon said, and as things stand it makes no difference to the parliamentary arithmetic anyway.  As expected she voted against the no confidence motion last night, but the government still won by fewer than 20 votes - meaning that if the DUP had backed the motion, the government would have lost.  No need for any Tory defections at all - the DUP could have swung the balance on their own.

That said, it was initially rather alarming to realise that the margin of defeat for the government in those circumstances would have been just one vote.  On the face of it, that raises the possibility that the DUP might eventually decide to bring about a general election, but fail to do so.  Remember that on a tied vote, the Speaker is supposed to exercise his casting vote in line with the status quo, which in the case of a no confidence motion means voting to save the government.  So the arithmetic with the DUP opposing the government looks very close to being a coin toss.

Thankfully, it turns out that three ex-Labour MPs who now sit as independents abstained last night - Fiona Onasanya, the odious John Woodcock, and Ivan Lewis.  Mr Woodcock is clearly a lost cause, and I don't know what the situation with Mr Lewis is, but I would guess Ms Onasanya probably just couldn't be bothered to turn up, because she's no longer subject to Labour discipline and she knew the motion was going to fail anyway.  So it's likely that the combined opposition forces can count on an extra vote or two in any truly competitive no confidence vote, which should ensure that only the DUP are required - assuming, that is, Ms Onasanya remains out of jail.  She obviously wouldn't be able to vote from prison, and if any jail sentence is of a duration of one year or longer, she would automatically forfeit her seat in the Commons, triggering a by-election in a marginal constituency that the Tories could conceivably win (if the current opinion polls are to be believed).  In that scenario, the parliamentary arithmetic would become that bit more daunting.  But it hasn't happened yet, and it may not happen at all.

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There was an even more peculiar article on the Corbynite alternative media website Evolve Politics last night, with a ludicrous headline claiming that the SNP were plotting with the Lib Dems to prop up the Tories in future no confidence votes.  The mind boggles as to how clueless any reporter would have to be about the realities of Scottish politics to give even the remotest credence to that story.  Sure enough, Kirsty Blackman immediately informed them in no uncertain terms on Twitter that they were wrong.  They hilariously reacted as if they had just succeeded in extracting some sort of 'concession' from her under pressure, but of course she was merely stating the blindingly obvious.  The SNP are in fact considerably more determined and more united in their attempts to bring down the government than the Labour party are, as evidenced by their tabling of a no confidence motion in December when Labour were holding back.

And if you think about it, the SNP's stance effectively kills the story as far as the Lib Dems are concerned as well.  Although it's not hard to see why the Lib Dems might want to threaten to abstain on a no confidence vote in an attempt to pressure Labour into backing a second referendum, there's no way they'd be able to see that threat through unless they had the safety-blanket of another party doing the same thing.  Single-handedly propping the Tories up at this stage would be electoral suicide for Cable's mob.

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31 comments:

  1. Any comment on today's Herald poll, James? Only 336 people and I'm not sure it's weighted properly. It is interesting that Herald choosing to print it.

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    1. It's very difficult to take that seriously as a "poll". I thought about writing a blogpost about it, but without any indication that it was properly weighted, there wouldn't really be much to say.

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  2. Well, it's obvious to Scots now that Labour cannot save things. The polls show voters were already conceding that, but there's no doubting it now.

    A true masterstroke by Corbyn. If you want an indy England outside the EU that is.

    Which is why the FM is now quietly sliding #iref2 onto the table. The coming delay to brexiting will provide the time to ensure this happens while Scotland (as part of the UK) is still a member.

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  3. Independents thrown out of the party will surely never vote to bring down the government as they would be giving up MP's pay cheque for the next 4 years.....They won't be re-selected and they will be out of a job.

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    1. Jared O'Mara was thrown out of the party, but he still voted to bring down the government last night. I suppose it just depends how much opprobrium you think you can live with (and it's not totally inconceivable that some MPs have principles as well).

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  4. It's not rocket science that the SNP are happy to say they back a people's vote.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/70-of-scots-would-back-remain-in-a-people-s-vote-on-brexit-1-4835465

    70% of Scots would back remain in a “People’s Vote” on Brexit

    Also because:
    - They need to be seen to have exhausted all other options before #iref2
    - A people's vote is highly unlikely to happen, and if it does...
    - It would encourage English independence if Scots MPs and/or voters help carry the bill / Remain vote

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    1. I agree with that logic up to but not including the bit about English independence. There would be a lot of cognitive dissonance among Brexiteers if Britain stayed in the EU because of Scotland, but at the end of the day most of them are British nationalists.

      I'm still ambivalent about the People's Vote policy, because in the unlikely event that it DOES happen, it makes independence significantly less likely.

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  5. Lady Hermon can give up her poor farmer's daughter schtick then, might as well join the DUP if she's just going to act like one. Lewis is a sex pest who was getting booted out of Labour anyway, and to save face decided to jump first and pretend it was about anti-semitism. Like Woodcock he can be considered a permanent abstention IMO.

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  6. I think we can all agree that now is not the time to proceed with brexit, and now is definitely not the time for no deal.

    This is certainly what Scots think according to polls.

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    1. Not all Scots fash boy only the weak crawlers who need guidance and comfort from the EU gangsters. The problem with Some Scots is they have no confidence in running a country without a big brother guiding them.

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    2. Wisnae me that was chickenshit and voted No in 2014. It was the unionists that were feart tae stand on their own two feet.

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    3. And I'm a big fan of Norway/EFTA. Happy enough with that for example. Main thing for me is free movement; that's the best thing about the EU/EEA. The economic reasons for being in one or both of these are of secondary importance to me.

      As a real social democrat, I feel solidarity with those beyond Scotland's borders, unlike the fake leftie Corybn brexiter types who are just hardcore nationalist right wingers deep down.

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    4. Democrats usually respect the result from a ballot. Unfortunately you jock fashnats are like the Nazis.

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    5. Another night on the Toilet Duck for Cordelia.
      Hic.

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  7. Why are we having to put up with pretend Yessers claiming that a referendum held without a Section 30 order wouldn't be binding?
    We've just seen T May state her absolute faith in referendum results.
    They must always be respected.
    Any vote by a sovereign people is legally binding always has been.

    You can overturn that vote or ignore it by use of arms but that has never ended well for the occupying forces.

    The best bit is when ultra yoons claim that they'd boycott a vote and thus render it illegitimate. As though a 99% yes wouldn't count.

    Any yes majority results in an independent Scotland. Our enemies know this which is why they have to spend so much time preventing such a vote and lying about the consequences.

    Why do some who claim to be on our own side join in with their colonialism?

    The same yoons also claim that B Taylor is an SNP loyalist who never goes against the evil Sturgeon. This despite the overwhelming evidence from the last 30 years. Mental or mental liars. There's no hope for them.

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    1. We get regular insights into the mindset, courtesy of Cordelia's drunken ravings.
      It's as desperate as it is hilarious.

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  8. skier, it wisnae chicken tae vote for the Union just common sense as the Scots and RUk are inbred and this includes the Irish. The EU Mafia is entirely different as it is naturally corrupt because of the Italian etc influence. Just wondering skier did you get your EEC frozen butter from the Mountain during the eighties?

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    1. My family is inbred wi the French. Scotland's really 'welcoming' you see :-) So much so the inbreeding with the continentals has been rampant since we joined the EEC. The latin ladies die fir a man in a kilt.

      It's just too late fir Scotland; it's European through and through now. Loads ae wee Euroweans running aroon the place votin Aye.

      Sturgeon is announcing #iref2, so run tae England while ye still can. Apparently they never took tae the furrin birds so are still 'pure'.

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    2. I assume it was not the Hugeanot French but the French collaborators who helped send the Jews to the holiday camps!

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    3. Poor Cordelia.
      So much fear.
      So much rage.
      So much booze.

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  9. skier, you as a Nat si have to convince the Scottish Unionists that leaving the Union and handing over power to the EU is credible as well as expelling Scots to England. You seem like an ethnic cleanser.

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    1. SiU have to put this hate-filled mouth breather on Reporting Scotland some time.

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    2. Seems medicines are what we need right now. The food shortages will follow. Panic buying may seriously exacerbate the problem.

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    3. I still hiv ma maws ration book fae the war. Cuts Doon Jock obesity.

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    4. Anyone else noticed the fetishistic, jingoistic obsession the Brexiteer wingnuts have with World War II? The war that was won through a concerted effort by dozens of nations?
      Very disturbing.

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  10. You hivtae feel sorry for British MEPs made redundant from the EU. We should put some food in the baskets for the poor souls!

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    1. Poor hammered Cordelia doesn't realise how well off its Kipper masters will be: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/24/long-serving-meps-eligible-transition-payments-european-parliament-uk

      Now let's sit back and watch the halfwit scream about gravy trains...

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    2. The EU parliament and the Jock parliament are not needed. They are gravy trains. What have they ever done for us besides ripping aff the Taxpayer.

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    3. The drunken, racist mess still screamed about gravy trains.
      I think it's in the huff because its love for Yaxley-Lennon remains unrequited...

      Delete
  11. #BetterTogether2's latest strategy.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46843631

    Pharmacists warn of a 'surge' in shortage of common medicines

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    1. Certainly an interesting response from the UK to Sturgeon tabling #ref2.

      Not sure if I'd have countered in the same way if I was running BetterTogether.

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