Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Last night increased the chances of a People's Vote - but it probably increased the chances of No Deal even more

"If a deal is impossible, and no one wants no deal, then who will finally have the courage to say what the only positive solution is?"

I'm sure Donald Tusk is a very nice man and kind to animals, but the now-notorious tweet above just looks idiotic to me - unless of course he actually wants a no deal Brexit for some reason, and is trying out a touch of reverse psychology.  All he's succeeded in doing is vastly increasing the paranoia among Brexit supporters about a dastardly Brussels plot to overturn the 2016 referendum, which will pile the pressure on Tory MPs to take a hard line over the coming weeks, and to ensure that Britain leaves the EU on 29th March at all costs, etc, etc.

I've found over recent weeks that when I'm trying to work out what will happen next with Brexit, a useful starting point is to look at whatever Mike "impartial Lib Dem election expert" Smithson is predicting, because it can usually be pretty safely ruled out as a possibility.  Before Christmas, he famously gave us the all-time classic of: "The DUP will vote for Theresa May's deal because they're scared of a united Ireland.  Don't worry, I've thought about this for three seconds so you don't have to."  Undeterred by being proved catastrophically wrong on that one (who would ever have guessed?) he's now claiming that Theresa May is about to back a People's Vote, and will use the drive for cross-party consensus as her excuse for the U-turn.  For good measure, he adds that this means the ERG's strategy was "not very smart" - which presumably implies that a better "strategy" for them would have been the same highly sophisticated one he expected from the DUP if they wanted to avoid a united Ireland, ie. to pack up, go home, and stop making such a damn fuss.

Hmmm.  I suspect the ERG will want to wait to see if Smithson's prediction is actually correct before giving up on life completely.  The reality is that last night's vote did increase the chances of a People's Vote, but it also increased the chances of no deal.  This is a high stakes game, and anyone who claims to know for sure which side is going to win it is deluding themselves.  One thing I am confident about, though, is that if a People's Vote does happen, Theresa May will not be responsible for helping to bring it about (or not intentionally, anyway).  OK, we know she lies every day of her life, so her repeated insistence that she won't back a referendum can't be taken at face value.  But we can rely on what we've learned about how she will measure success or failure in her tenure as Prime Minister.  She wants her place in history to be the delivery of an orderly Brexit, and if that really isn't possible she would settle for just delivering Brexit.  A People's Vote would put Brexit at severe risk, so if forced to choose between a referendum and pretty much any alternative, she would always choose the alternative.

If you're trying to work out what the "May lie" was last night, I think the most promising candidate was her assurance that she is not trying to run down the clock.  I would not be at all surprised if running down the clock is the exact purpose of the forthcoming cross-party talks.  It's very hard to believe that she has any intention of reaching an understanding with Labour - yes, there might be a natural parliamentary majority for a much softer Brexit, but if she went down that road she would leave the most hard-line Brexiteers feeling they have nothing left to lose by breaking away from the Conservative party, which in turn could bring down the government.  I suspect she'll be happy enough to look like she's doing something urgently, but to no great effect - with the intended outcome being a miracle last-minute parliamentary approval for something approximating to the current deal, or a "nothing to do with me guv" no deal by default.

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24 comments:

  1. Why is Sturgeon saying that the 'only credible option' is a second EU referendum?

    'Only' credible option?

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    1. It's the only credible option for the UK; if it has any chance of staying together. In the absence of a second EUref, a new scottish inref becomes the only way forward for Scotland.


      Also, a people's vote without any GE manadate sets the precendent that Holyrood needs no election manifesto manadate for irefs going forward. Handy.

      As for no deal generally, there as are two options:

      1. The UK exits with a deal, takes a big economic hit, and immeadiately has to start neogiating a new trade deal with its 27 neighbours, which may take many years.

      2. The UK exits without a deal and economic calamity follows. People pine for the good old days of the 2008-9 crisis. The UK then has to start neogiating a new trade deal with its 27 neighbours, which may take many years.

      So, the only choice the UK faces is whether it wants a decent rise in unemployment or a huge one. Either way, it has to negotiate a new deal with the 27+ going forward; one which Ireland can e.g. veto if it wants. Hell, Ireland could even veto a UK-US trade deal by threatening to veto an EU-US one for example. So there will be a backstop, or the UK will be a pariah state which is internationally isolated.

      There's just no such thing as 'no deal' with your neighbours. Even N. Korea has basic trade deals with the south and China.

      No deal can be thought of as just blowing off your feet and jumping in a big pool of shit before you start trade negotiations with neighbouring countries. Otherwise, it's basically identially to 'with deal'.

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    2. In the case of the UK leaving without a deal then of course Ireland will either have to set up a border with NI or leave the single market. Goods entering the single market from a third country have to be checked at the point of entry, the EU has been very clear about this.

      The other choice, of course, is that Ireland leaves the EU

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    3. Ireland won't be leaving the EU. It only became fully independent as a result of EU membership, and as a client state of the UK, its economy would slump as badly as that of Scotland.

      The British will also want to ensure that the immigration they fear so much doesn't find a back door into the UK via Ireland. All the dreaded expats need to do is take a plane or ferry to Ireland then train or bus to NI and a short ferry to Cairnryan or Liverpool.

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    4. The choice for the UK is N. Ireland remaining in the single market or it reunifying with Ireland. There is no way out of this.

      No deal doesn't solve it. If England (and it would be England in effect) tries to take N. Ireland out of the free movement / single market zone, it will face EU and international economic sanctions for its breach of the UN international peace deal. If that doesn't work, military force may be used to remove England from the province.

      England has zero allies when it comes to the continued occupation of part of Ireland. Its only brits that have deluded themselves on this matter; all other countries see N. Ireland as an colonial abomination.

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    5. On the 29th of March, England/the uK officially loses all EU and EEA member states (for starters) as impartial (relatively) observers/negotiators on the matter of N. Ireland. That's what telling your mates to fuck of gets you; they won't stand behind you any more.

      So, Europe will rally fully behind Ireland, ensuring the backstop happens with the full weight of economic sanctions and military intervention if the UN peace deal is not respected.

      But Brexiters wanted this. They voted for it. It's not as if it wasn't made clear that this would happen was it.

      It would be of course easier for England just to dump N. Ireland; something polling suggests leave voters are fine with. After all, they are mainly English nationalists.

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    6. What backstop? There is no backstop that got voted down last night. The Good Friday agreement does not say that NI has to stay in the single market and free movement of Irish Citizens will continue between Ireland and the UK as per the agreement.

      As I said if there is a no deal Brexit Ireland will either have to leave the single market (therefore EU) or have border checks between NI and Ireland. As been made clear numerous times over the last couple of years you cannot have an open border between the single market and a third country.

      Of course if Ireland enforces a border as you say it will face crippling Economic Sanctions.

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    7. Sorry, but N. Ireland needs to stay in the single market or have a hard border. Customs union is not enough. You can't have free trade across an open border unless the rules are the same on both sides. = Single market / full regulatory alignment.

      And as for free movement of people, are you telling me that Irish in N. Ireland can't invite EU friends over for dinner? That these will be stopped by the English gestapo at the border? That if I have a farm on the border, I can't employ my Spanish friend to world the fields on the British side? I have to get a visa from the English gestapo that might be turned down?

      If that happens, the IRA would have every right to take up arms again. The free movement of people is absolutely key to the border. The goods issue is actually far less of a problem. The problem is Irish people being stopped by English nazis on a border partitioning their ancient land. That is the problem and what the GFA solved largely.

      Read the GFA; EU membership is a key part of it.

      No deal will mean reunification, most likely via a border referendum where polling suggests people there will vote for it. The UK will face crippling economic sanctions if it does not allow effective single market / free movement via the backstop and/or reunification via a border poll if needed.

      The UK already has no allies on N. Ireland. When it leaves the EU, the entire EEA/EU will be on the side of Ireland, as will the international community in general. That's what happens when you dump your mates and tell them all to fuck off.

      It's most certainly not up to England / English MPs in London, most of whom have probably never even set foot on the island. It's not their land to decide on.

      The Irish backstop has shown the world the colonial mindset of England (or at least a section of brexiteers). Not once in the whole brexit process has England ever thought to actually consult people in N. Ireland as to what they want.

      Same for Scotland, and hence why brexit is putting a wrecking ball through Britain.

      Enjoy the remainder of the UK. There's not much time left for it now. England is ending it.

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    8. You seem confused, its not the UK who are saying there needs to be border is the EU, so it would be the Republic who have to stop and check goods crossing the border, if they are not prepared to do this they cannot be in the single market. I'm only going by what the Irish Government have confirmed.

      Leave it there, i used to be quiet a strong supporter of Irish Independence (as did my family) until the IRA tried to kill be back in Feb 96 for no other reason than for were I worked.

      Hopefully will have a second ref and remain, keeping in the UK in the EU and dropping support for a border poll to 25%

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    9. A steely contempt for Ireland and the Irish is an under-reported facet of Scots Unionism, but it's there if you know where to look, and evidenced in the vaguely threatening tone of some of the posts above.

      Ireland will not leave the EU, Brexit has made pro-Europe sentiment in Ireland skyrocket. The hope/belief that the Republic is still the UK's satellite is a vain one.
      The Good Friday Agreement also precludes any significant divergement in legislation or customs standards between Northern Ireland and the Republic: otherwise the cross-border bodies would find it difficult to function.

      All that said, a no-deal scenario might perforce require the return of a hard border in the short-term, but the campaign for a United Ireland would begin the next day.



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    10. The international community will only accept any new (harder) border be in the Irish Sea.

      So, that's what will ultimately happen if the UK exits the customs union / single market.

      It's that or the UK become a pariah state subject to economic sanctions, even military force.

      This was made clear before brexit; experts very clearly stated that brexit was incompatible with the UN peace agreement over northern Ireland it would would preciptiate a crisis.

      N. Ireland does not belong to England. Best let it, and Scotland, and Wales, decide their own futures.

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  2. Imagine a 'people's vote bill' is narrowly passed with the aid of the SNP, and/or said vote is then narrowly carried by Scotland (and N. Ireland) for Remain, even though England voted leave again.

    #EVEL #Englishnationalism #IndependenceforEngland

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    1. It would be highly entertaining. Then we would find out how precious our union is.

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    2. They'll tell us to eat our cereal.
      They'll tell us it'll all be fine despite all the evidence to the contrary.
      They swears it on the Preciousssss....

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  3. Hard Brexit says fook the ROI and the EU. Let the ROI set up the hard border for their EU masters the British will not do it.

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    1. Cordelia's hammered and shouting the odds again.
      Must be the Toilet Duck at work.

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  4. skier how will England end? Your desperation is showing! We will leave the EU and it is up to you Nat sis to explain why Scotland should join the criminal mafia EU. And incidentally how much approx would the Scottish Taxpayer pay the criminals?

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    1. Cordelia's hammered and shouting the odds again.
      Must be the Toilet Duck at work.

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    2. Scottish Leader Sex PestJanuary 16, 2019 at 10:57 PM

      Anonymous dreams of Cordelia dain tricks in a Bruxelles B&B at taxpayers expense.

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    3. Not really interested in Cordelia's bizarre ultra-right-wing fantasy life.
      Drunken omnishambles.

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  5. Pished and pontificating. Yep, it's Cooky Cordelia!

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    1. Pretty much.
      It's an indicator of what to expect from the unionists during the indyref2 campaign, since they ran out of arguments.

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    2. Since nobody will believe the Government's stories this time round, it'll be up to stalwarts like BBC, newspapers, Tory Nash's SiU, the mad professor from Edinburgh with her familiars and Cordelia to defend the Empire. I don't envy them but their frenzied foamings should be fun to behold.

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    3. No doubt they'll try staging another live Broontervention.

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