Friday, January 18, 2019

Bewildered Farquharson wonders "do these stupid voters actually LIKE civil wars?" as bombshell YouGov subsample puts the SNP close to 50% of the vote

So the usual health warnings at this point - what you're about to see is not a "poll", it should not be referred to as "the latest Scottish poll", and it's not in any way equivalent to recent full-scale Scottish polls with less favourable results.  Nevertheless, YouGov's Scottish subsamples do appear (unlike those from other firms) to be correctly structured and weighted, which means the only real problem with them is a large margin of error caused by the small sample size.  That being the case, this rather extreme result is an interesting straw in the wind...

SNP 47%, Conservatives 24%, Labour 14%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Greens 5%, UKIP 2%

That's obviously not the true position, but nevertheless I think we can safely assume that Labour are not going to be taking the lead in Scotland any time soon.  At 47%, the SNP have equalled their best recent showing in a YouGov subsample, which makes it appear somewhat unlikely that the fallout from Alex Salmond's legal victory has had the effect that the unionist media clearly expected.  It looks like voters actually care more about resolving the chaos of Brexit than about minor tensions between people in the SNP - who'd have thunk it? 

This is also a rare example (rare by the standards of the last two years, I mean) of the pro-independence parties in combination having an outright majority of the vote in a YouGov subsample.

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23 comments:

  1. Your note of caution aside, is it validation of Nicola Sturgeon's tactics? Hold, hold, hold, fire!

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    1. "Hold, hold, hold, fire" is fine. What I objected to was "hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold, hold..."

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    2. I'm chomping at the bit as much as the next indy but it does now appear as the sh*t's hitting the fan that people are beginning to think again. I don't believe other senior SNP figures or the whole indy movement will allow a prolonged hold position.

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    3. If course if brexit is cancelled or delayed, we can look forward to the proper 'rise of the extreme right', as the UK government is warning Scots about. Under FPTP the 50% Brexiters can readily take control parliament; they nearly have already.

      Something to look forward too if Scotland voted No again.

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  2. I think she has done everything that she could to try and stop Brexit harming Scotland, the Tories in London seem to be helping to state the Independence case for us.

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. I went on the train from Inverurie to Arbroath and told the woman sitting next to me that I took part in the London Olympics in the synchronised swimming team but was a woman at the time called Cynthia Shepherd.

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  4. I imagine sampling was before Scots learned that the UK is now intentionally depriving them of medicines.

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  5. I see retail sales contracted in Q4 2018.

    Ties in with unemployment edging up and the mass emigration of EU workers.

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    1. skier, you deserve a job with BBC Radio 2. Their pro Remain propaganda is as incessant as yourself. 40 so called prominent Germans have written to the Times to tell us how much they love the British

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    2. More lunchtime of booze from the Tories' pet xenophobe.
      Sad, really.

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    3. Cordelia must have lunched with Ferdinand Pysshe. One of those lunches that feature no solids.

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    4. It really is a bitter, drunken mess.
      I don't think Yaxley-Lennon has responded to its love letters.

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    5. So glad that GWC2 is back! I was beginning to get worried that she might have been sectioned or something.

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    6. Cordelia's problems are too deep-seated for a mere sectioning to resolve.

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  6. I would think that Ian Blackford's and Mhairi Black's excellent contributions in particular in the recent House of Commons debates on BREXIT and confidence motions have further offered a very positive impression of the SNP across Scotland and beyond.

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    1. Yes - it says a lot when you see the Tories (and others) all honk, bray, bleat, hoot and hiss whenever any of the SNP MPs gets up and talks intelligent sense, truth and reality - because they really, really do not like any of those things.

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  7. Guid!

    Git richt, intae thum - yissliss, anti-Scoattish Independence erses.

    Haud, nuhin.

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  8. Its not enough.

    YES needs to make the political space for the SNP to act.

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  9. Hold Hold Hold Hold Fire! is fine by me, but where is the education plan in the country at large to inform the people of Scotland's potential as a free state?
    Twice recently the SNP has urged us to keep campaigning. But what's the message? Silence! The Yes groups are out but we are the 'sma folk' Where's the main army?
    After 29 March the EU will be legally free to speak out on Scotland's membership as a member state.
    Hope that's worth waiting for.

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  10. Act, it is all a charade.

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