Saturday, December 8, 2018

Wondrous SNP wangle wizard win in windy Wester Ross

I was up to my neck yesterday, so apologies for being a bit late with this excellent news from the Highlands. In a break from the pattern of the recent past, the SNP have not underperformed expectations in a local council by-election - quite the reverse, in fact.

Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh by-election result (first preferences):

SNP 33.1% (+7.0)
Conservatives 26.0% (+7.6)
Independent - Greene 15.6% (+1.4)
Greens 9.0% (-2.2)
Liberal Democrats 8.0% (-5.4)
Labour 4.4% (-0.7)
Independent - Davis 3.3% (n/a)
UKIP 0.4% (n/a)
Scottish Libertarians 0.2% (n/a)


Technically, this was an SNP gain from the Liberal Democrats, but that's just one of the familiar quirks of the STV system - in fact the SNP topped the poll in the ward last time around, and the Lib Dems trailed in fourth. Nevertheless, by any standards this was a dismal attempt from the Lib Dems at defending the seat - they suffered a net swing to the SNP of more than 6%. We probably shouldn't get as excited about the SNP surge as we would do if it had happened in a central belt ward - there's much more of a tradition in Highlands local politics of electing an individual, rather than a political party. But a splendid result for the SNP is always preferable to the alternative.

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13 comments:

  1. I have noted that the SNP are now getting over 40% support in the Westminster intentions sub samples of the UK polls recently. A trend perhaps. The SNP won the Wick local by-election a few years and looked what happened after that...……….

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  2. If we ignore the Independent candidates and look only at votes for Parties, the pro Indy SNP and Greens had 52.1% of first preference votes.

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  3. Delighted that my friends in Lochalsh and WR got the councillor they voted for. Well done!

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  4. Excellent effort by Alex MacInnes and his team. Size of the Tory vote is perturbing, but bear in mind the seat takes in Strathpeffer, which is very much the Highland Buckhinghamshire, yet still no joy for Ruthie's platoon.

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    1. Strathpeffer isn't the only one. I am from Moray originally. Given the demographics and military presence there, it is a miracle the British Unionists don't win every election. It seems like the local people all over the country are rejecting the BritNats. And have been for years.

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    2. I mean that in Moray for example, all the local people must be voting SNP, while only the newer residents vote for the parties that best represent them and their home areas.

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. Panelbase 47% Yes 'first thing tomorrow' morning I see. That's a six point gap closure on March to October this year. Indy with no plan tomorrow. No questions asked. Imagine you had general agreement with the EU that we could stay in the single market etc.

    Also 59% Yes for a no deal scenario and 53% Yes in the case of May's deal exit I understand.

    No bad for what's a Yes unfriendly pollster these days.

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    1. Last time we saw 47% Yes for the morn in a panelbase was September 2016. Ties in with movement to SNP that's been emerging in UKGE poll subsets.

      I imagine James will expand in due course!

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  7. https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/independent-scotland-over-uk-after-brexit/

    Majority Back Independent Scotland Over Staying In UK After Brexit: Poll

    A majority of Scots believe Scottish independence would be better for the country than staying part of the United Kingdom after Brexit, a new poll finds.

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  8. Erm, why are people saying the UK can't leave the backstop 'unilaterally'?

    It very obviously can; it just needs to end the union with N. Ireland. It's entirely up to the English/British government whether the union with N. Ireland continues, and they can unilaterally end it no matter what people in N. Ireland think (I note they're not being asked).

    A union requires both parties to agree to it and either can end that union unilaterally. The peace deal is not broken by e.g. England / the UK going for independence from N. Ireland any more than N. Irish people voting for reunification would 'break' it.

    Same applies for Scotland. We can become independent even if were all orange sashed loyalists; if England wants oot, then that's that. Naff all we could do.

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    1. But John said awhile ago..........

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  9. I was up visiting my mum who lives near Strathpeffer on the days before the election. She had been inundated with leaflets from the Tory candidate (& a personally addressed letter from Ruth Davidson) who was playing the 'I am the only one who has a chance of beating the SNP' card furiously. I'd say a big chunk of the Lib Dems lost votes went thataway.

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