Thursday, December 27, 2018

How will Nebulous Theresa answer the Lorraine Mann Question?

Over at Stormfront Lite, Alastair Meeks has made a set of rather bold political predictions for the coming year - including that Britain won't leave the European Union on schedule in March, and that there will be a fresh referendum.  I don't agree with that - although a referendum is certainly possible, I think the odds are still against it, and it's probably around 50/50 whether Brexit will happen on 29th March.  In particular, where I think Alastair is going wrong is that he believes Article 50 will be revoked by parliament if that's the only way to avoid No Deal.  I just can't see that happening, because both Tory and Labour MPs know the optics of that would be that they are arrogantly overturning the 2016 referendum result.  (OK, theoretically it could be argued that a revocation is just intended to provide breathing space and that Article 50 will be re-invoked again later on, but nobody will buy that, and rightly so.)  So the only way Brexit will not occur on schedule is if Article 50 is extended rather than revoked - which is an important distinction, because if my hazy understanding of the legal position is correct, the impetus for an extension can only come from the government, and it's not something parliament can insist upon.  And unlike a revocation, an extension can't be decided upon unilaterally by the UK.

Essentially what that means is that Theresa May can ensure that Britain leaves in March if she is determined to do so, but that might well involve her accepting No Deal.  So the key to understanding what is about to happen is inside May's head - would she actually do that?

In the mid-1990s, Alex Salmond and George Robertson took part in a televised head-to-head debate on the respective merits of independence and devolution.  Towards the end of the programme, the audience member Lorraine Mann coined what became known as "the Lorraine Mann Question" - she asked each leader what their second preference would be for Scotland's constitutional status.  In other words, she wanted to know whether Alex Salmond would prefer devolution or continued direct rule from London, and whether George Robertson would prefer direct rule from London or independence.  Both men looked as if they wished the question had never been asked, but Mr Salmond answered it clearly - his second preference was devolution.  Mr Robertson, by contrast, made a complete fool of himself - he refused to answer, and suggested (wrongly) that Lorraine Mann was an SNP plant.

Mr Robertson did, however, have the luxury of knowing that it was an academic question - he was never going to be forced to publicly reveal that he preferred London rule to independence.  Theresa May isn't so lucky.  She says the choice is between her deal, No Deal and No Brexit.  If that's right, when and if her deal is defeated in the Commons, she's going to finally have to reveal what her own second preference is.  We know what some of her Cabinet colleagues would do in her shoes - Andrea Leadsom's second preference would clearly be No Deal, and Amber Rudd's would be No Brexit.  But which way will May jump?  If she prefers No Deal, Brexit will probably happen on schedule, but if she prefers No Brexit, we could be looking at an extension of Article 50 and possibly a second referendum.

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53 comments:

  1. I think Art 50 can be withdrawn unilaterally and even at the end of an extension which I thinks need universal agreement.

    What do so know. I think I am a panda

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  2. the timing of A50 was no accident
    T May has stated 'we will be leaving on 29 march'
    EU tax directive comes in on 1 april
    giving UK tax haven status
    no more big tax demands for the ruling elite
    its all going to (her) plan

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    Replies
    1. Have to agree.. It's what the whole bl**dy mess has been about from day 1..!

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  3. May is a remainer and the majority of MPs are remainers. No matter what the deal is the MPs will vote against it. They need a re run of the referendum to cop out. Hopefully the British will keep their bottle and vote leave and fuck the MPs. The more of crawlers that lose their seats the better.

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  4. May is a remainer and the majority of MPs are remainers. No matter what the deal is the MPs will vote against it. They need a re run of the referendum to cop out. Hopefully the British will keep their bottle and vote leave and fook the MPs. The more of crawlers that lose their seats the better.

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  5. It has to be remembered that Treeza's number 1 choice was remain.

    Very interesting to see what would happen if westminster ever gets to vote on whether or not to revoke A50...?

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    1. They will revoke because they are in the upper-class Liberal elite money chain. Democracy for them is a joke. Five years as an Mp means a pension and buying an ex cooncil hoose then a chairmanship on a Quango.

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    2. That's a load of poogle gandy

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  6. But would May get an extension of Article 50 even if she wanted one? I suspect most of the EU countries are sick of the whole thing and want the UK out. So it's May's deal or no deal. Either way, we're out of the EU and the single market.

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  7. When did May's 3rd option become available i.e. No Brexit?

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    Replies
    1. There was an ECJ ruling that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

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  8. Previous was directed to James ... but Anyone..?

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  9. May might have indicated that she was a remainer, but, how do we really know she is..? I don't think we have ever seen such a bunch of devious, disingenuous characters as those establishment politicians sitting in Westminster right now.

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  10. So that's it then. 18 years in Scotland and the English government is forcing my wife to apply to stay in her own home, and charging her £65 for the pleasure.

    How xenophobic do you have to be to try and control who gets to live in the country next door?

    No wonder the exit gated are crammed with eu citizens 'going back to where they came from'.

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    1. Try GETTIN a wife that stays in your joint home and has a British passport. Going by all the shoite you write skier you should be helpin skivers and illegal immigrants fill in benefit forms.

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  11. Scottish Skier,
    It is a despicable situation that you and many others face because of the xenophobic attitude of those south of the border.
    I will be facing similar problems if the UK leaves the EU as my wife is a naturalised Irish citizen and I originate from Scotland and hold a UK passport.
    We have made the decision to leave Ireland and settle in my wife's home country where I will not have this dilema.

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    1. Rudolph Hess from EagleshamDecember 30, 2018 at 12:37 AM

      Try EU run Greece or Italy both former fascist states or Germany Uber Alles.

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    2. Rudolph the Blue Nose ReindeerDecember 30, 2018 at 10:39 AM

      A typical reply from a brain dead Nat si loser. You could be Scotlands trade representative to the EU!

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  12. The leader of the Irish Republic and Fairy Adams have remained silent over the Macron Regime using Rubber Bullets against the proletariat.

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  13. My wife first came to Scotland in 1992. She's lived in the country for 20 years in total and has been here permanently for 18 years. It's her home now. She's even feels Scottish.

    And now she's facing active discrimination by the UK [sic English] government. They're f'king charging her to stay in Scotland, in her own home. Putting her on a f'king list so they can discrimate against her. She's facing threats, potentially of deportation, if she doesn't register and cough up the cash.

    The UK can get to fk.

    I've supported Scottish indy since I first took the time to think about politics around the age of 15/16. However, I've never really been that bothered about being a UK passport holder / citizen; that was just the way things were. I just wanted my Scottish passport one day. Well, a big reason I'm getting my Irish passport now is I can no longer stand my British one. Britain is telling my wife, family, good friends and colleagues they're not wanted. So it can seriously just GTF.

    That and of course I'm ashamed to hand over my great big leather embossed 'Go back to where you came from smelly furriner' sign each time I travel to the continent.

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  14. You are a bit of a numpty skier. I am Scottish simply because I was born and live in Scotland. How can you feel Scottish! You are a fanatic skier.

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    1. To ‘feel Scottish’ (in the context intended), simply means to feel the country of Scotland is your home. Where you were born is an 'accident' / something that happened by chance. My wife was born in Morocco; that does not make her Moroccan. Country of birth might in some cases bestow you citizenship, but it does not necessarily become part of your identity. I was born in Britain and through that, I am entitled to British citizenship, but I do not feel British. I maybe did somewhat when young, but the Brits really battered it out of me to make sure I felt Scottish only (just like you do for example).

      We can all see you don't feel Scottish; no need to state it.

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    2. Is Mr Blobby still on the Noel Edmund show. I loved that. And Crinkly Bottom was such a cheeky name. We used to kill ourselves laughing.

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  15. skier I am Scottish and a British Citizen however I do not have any feelings about either it is just a fact.

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    1. Well, you might feel nothing for Scotland nor Britain, but others do. Some care about their community and feel a genuine attachment to it. They enjoy living there...look forward to coming home to it after a long time away...feel pride in it when it achieves something...want to make it a nice place to live..welcome others into it because of all these feelings...

      As the old saying goes,'Home is where the heart is'.

      If you don't feel anything like that...don't feel like my wife has come to about her adopted country of Scotland...then that's rather sad really.

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    2. English Bob. We laughed and laughed and laughed.

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    3. Typical nationalist. Having feelings about the community and working conditions has no relation to petty nationalism. You are the saddo skier. I support all working people who live in poor conditions and struggle daily. You are a fanatic skier and the Scottish working class are just but pawns in your fancifal narrow minded game. You will lose.

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    4. We laughed and laughed and laughed. Then we laughed and laughed and laughed. After that we laughed and laughed and laughed. Oh, how we laughed.

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  16. You couldn't make this stuff up.

    ---
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46714984

    "Concerns have been raised over the readiness of a British firm contracted by the government to run extra ferries in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

    Seaborne Freight was awarded a £13.8m contract this week to run a freight service between Ramsgate and Ostend.

    The firm has never run a ferry service...

    ...The [UK] government has also awarded additional, much larger ferry contracts to French company Brittany Ferries and Danish shipping firm DFDS, worth £46.6m and £47.3m respectively.

    The new contracts are part of the government's contingency planning, which aims to ease the potential for severe congestion at main port Dover if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal. "

    ---

    There's definitely a #Brexitbonus, it's just all the EU countries getting it, from banks to Easyjet to Rees Mogg's businesses, to ferry contracts...

    And if there is 'no deal', the UK still needs to enter negotiations with the EU for a new trade deal. Or is it seriously going to trade with its 27+ nearest neigbours on WTO terms forever? Get a fkin grip, what is the UK going to be like N. Korea?

    All 'no deal' does is totally trash the UK economy ahead of inevitable trade deal negotiatons starting.

    And from what I read, medicines are already starting to run short. At some point, people will start dying.

    And all because the brexiters don't e.g. want my elderly mother in law to be able to move here freely if needs be, because she's a 'benefit scrounging, queue jumping, johnnny furriner who's not like us' apparently.

    Bravo. Truly Bravo.

    #BetterTogether

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  17. Replies
    1. English Bob's Auntie Mary fae GovanhillDecember 30, 2018 at 10:44 PM

      Scottish taxpayers had to fund the Rosyth to Zeebrugge ferry. The Govan ferry could be resurrected to trade with Dumbarton.

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  18. Uncle Boab born in an ambulance five yards, over the Scottish, boarder, in EnglandDecember 30, 2018 at 11:04 PM

    Whits wrang wie ye skier.! The British are planning as they did with the Dunkirk Evacuation against the Nazis. We are now planning for all eventualities against the unelected fascist EU. The British Gov are deploying our forces as they should against dictatorship. A hard brexit is best fish and chips all round.

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  19. Always fun watching the unpaid stooge babbling to itself.
    Poor, tormented Cordelia overdid the Toilet Duck again.

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    Replies
    1. She's a demented old bat with a drink problem.

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  20. It didn't like me talking about its bizarre drinking habits.
    The homophobe's standard obsession is a dead giveaway.

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  21. Have a read of this and understand why if it's a hard brexit, the Yes won't be 59% (Panelbase), but could well be 74% (1997).

    https://gulfnews.com/opinion/op-eds/the-chaos-thats-set-to-unfold-in-uk-1.61121373

    The chaos that’s set to unfold in UK

    The banality of WTO rules will bring the reality of Brexit home to roost

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    1. skier you are clearly a person who needs to be dominated by a mafia criminal type organisation like the EU. You are not Scottish. I am lifting my gerden slabs and chukie stances tae prepare ma gerden for planting veg. I will dig for Britain to fight the EU fascists. National Service should be introduced immediately this will get rid of the Irish and other pretend Scots like yourself.

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    2. The coming social and economic disaster is naff all to do with the EU per se. It's perfectly possible to not be in the EU successfully - see Norway or Switzerland for example. The 'fascist' eu hasn't e.g. dictated 'now is not the time', but happily held open the door so the UK can stroll out as it pleases. A friendly wave goodbye and a 'come back any time!'.

      The UK is screwed because it's a delusional xenophobic shithole run by complete morons. Simple as that.

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    3. The shitholes are those crawlin scum that do not accept democratic votes and manufacture fear when there is nothing to fear. A hard brexit is required and watching the Nat si losers squirm again as they did during 2014 would be a delight.

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    4. Oh, how we laughed!

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  22. A guid new year tae all in the commonwealth o Scotland.
    Anither year, anither step closer tae liberty an freedom for the auld kintrae. Last nicht's fireworks are as nothing compared tae when aw wir hogmanays come thegither on INDEPENDENCE DAY!!!

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