Thursday, November 15, 2018

New BOMBSHELL Scottish poll suggests Ruth Davidson could face ANGUISH in snap election

As you may remember, one of the points of confusion about Channel 4's recent Survation poll was a set of Scottish voting intention figures for Westminster, which eventually proved to be merely a subsample (albeit an unusually large one) that hadn't been correctly weighted.  However, Survation have now reweighted the results in line with Scottish target figures, and it turns out that the position for the SNP is as favourable as it originally appeared.

Scottish voting intentions for Westminster (Survation, 20th October - 2nd November):

SNP 40% (+4)
Conservatives 27% (n/c)
Labour 23% (-3) 
Liberal Democrats 7% (n/c)

The percentage changes listed above are measured from a Survation poll for the Daily Record that was conducted just slightly earlier (with a small amount of overlap between the fieldwork for the two polls).  I have a feeling Survation would probably argue that the Record and Channel 4 polls are not directly comparable because they were conducted slightly differently, but at the end of the day they're both online polls weighted to Scottish target figures.

The Record poll caused some concern by showing an unusually low SNP vote by Survation's normal standards.  Many of us wondered at the time if it was just a freakish result caused by random sampling variation, and the swift recovery in the new poll would tend to support that theory.  So the 4% gain for the SNP should really be seen as a reversion to the mean rather than as real progress - the last-but-one online Survation poll had the SNP on 41%, and the one before that had them on 42%.  Nevertheless, if replicated at a general election, the new figures would see the SNP making substantial seat gains, especially at Labour's expense.

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16 comments:

  1. 10.5+ years into government with a solid double digit lead for the English parliament. Not bad at all.

    As for current events...can we stop talking about the 'UK' leaving the EU now? N. Ireland certainy isn't, and the very foundations of the union are crumbling beneath our feet.

    We can instead talk about how the UKoGB is breaking up and start taking down the union flags. I mean the red satlire is coming off, so you'll look pretty stupid waving it around going forward. People giggled on the world stage behind british backs when Ireland left and the flag wasn't changed, but this will be too much.

    Oh dear for the rangers orangemen. Soon they'll need a visa for the trip across to Glasgow for the game. The songs about staying in the single market and reunficiation from the green brigades are already being penned I imagine.

    Total. Unionist. Betrayal.

    Anyway, I said the English nationalists would sell out the Scottish / N. Irish unionists. Only a fool would think otherwise. There surely now must be a horrible sinking feel in the pit of Mundell and Davidson's stomach. They've been utterly betrayed too. If you are a unionist in your heart and soul, you are being right royally shafted.

    ---

    Nick Eardley
    @nickeardleybbc

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1062821255299108870

    Tension in Scottish Tory group tonight. I hear Ross Thomson has told David Mundell he must quit if any different arrangements for Northern Ireland.

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  2. Mundell will be bought off with a bit of white fur in my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If May goes, Mundell might be axed by whoever follows. He's not the only jock shoe shiner they have right now. That Thomson boy is handy with teaspoon too I've heard.

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    2. Handbags at dawn, my flighty jade.

      Delete
    3. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its utter confusion.
      Poor, tormented, miserable Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete
  3. 'The Conservative & Irish Reunification Party'.

    Or rather, to give it the proper title...

    The English Conservative Party.

    Just returning to its roots as the sun sets on the crumbling remnants of empire.

    After all, EVEL means MPs from the celtic periphery are second class anyway; no use when it comes to making laws for England. Doesn't matter how many you win, they don't help your real majority. So what's the point of them? Just getting in the way on stuff like brexit. Brexit would be much easier if it was EVEL.

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  4. Watching the British political system implode is quite a site.

    Really is last days of Rome stuff.

    With half the English electorate backing Leave, there's no stopping it either.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And so it goes on, as Hannah Wartnaby said of the River Tweed.

      Delete
  5. We live in interesting times.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All times are interesting

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    2. Except the Evening Times. And the times I spent waiting in a bus shelter for Kate Hoey to jog along and give me a happy ending.

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    3. Ach dung Kate and her wunderbar smoking lips. KNICKERLESS WILL Swally any German sperm tae crawl tae the EU. SPIT IT OUT YA WEE SHITE TRATUR.

      Delete
    4. I thought that was your fave flavour.

      Delete
    5. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its utter confusion.
      Poor, tormented, miserable Cordelia, once again reduced to arguing with itself.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete
    6. You do kinky with bimbo.
      You do kinky with bimbo.
      You do kinky with bimbo.

      Delete
    7. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its utter confusion.
      Poor, tormented, miserable Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete