Sunday, September 2, 2018

Deltapoll delirium as new survey finds Scotland split down the middle on independence

There's a lot of excitement tonight because of an independence poll featured on the frontpage of The National which sort-of-shows Yes support at 52%.  The problem is that Deltapoll asked a non-standard question based on the hypothesis that Britain will leave the EU.  Although this is obviously a hypothesis that is extremely likely to come to pass, some respondents may have felt that they were 'supposed' to adjust their current view on independence when the imagined future was taken into account, which could make the results unreliable.  People are notoriously bad at answering hypothetical questions - 'bad' in the sense that their answers don't tally up with how they actually react when the event comes to pass.

But never fear, because there is something very interesting and encouraging about this poll.  Before the hypothetical question was posed, respondents were first asked a more neutral question about independence.  Unfortunately it's still not the standard independence question (ie. 'Should Scotland be an independent country?' Yes/No), so it can't be directly compared with other independence polls.  But there's absolutely nothing about the question that would artificially steer respondents towards a pro-independence position - if anything, the opposite is true.  The results are startling.

In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?

For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom: 50.6%
For Scotland to become an independent country: 49.4%

That's as good a result for Yes as we've seen in a long time - essentially a dead heat.  I haven't been able to track down the fieldwork dates yet, so if anyone knows what they are I'd be very interested to hear.  That could obviously be a point of great significance given recent events.

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UPDATE: Stuart Campbell kindly sent me the methodological note from the poll last night, which states that the parallel Northern Ireland sampling took place between the 27th and 30th of August, but irritatingly doesn't specify the fieldwork dates for Scotland.  The National article states that polling took place between the 24th and 29th.  Either way it appears to be entirely after the Alex Salmond story broke, which is very encouraging.

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32 comments:

  1. That's really bucked me up. Thanks for the information, James.

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  2. I wonder how much of the increase in support for independence is attributable to the ageing of the population, which is seeing the preponderantly No-voting age cohorts being replaced by preponderantly Yes-voting younger cohorts moving up, as poor decrepit wrinklies like me fall off the twig.

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    1. The young tend to leave Scotland and lose the vote. Us old Unionists will remain Unionists unless you Nat sis can offer a better life. Try cutting the MSPS in half and stop crawling to the EU fascists.

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    2. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  3. While the question is not 'standard', I think it is valid. It is something that seems certain to happen, so it is about time someone asked it. Occasionally, the 'standard' question is no longer the relevant one as I think is the case here.

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  4. BBC world just said that they had a poll from " the Scotsman" that said Scotty types wanted independence after Brexit. Same poll?

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    1. Henri Bondi..commentator citing different poll? Says it's by two anti Brexit campaigns ..47 to leave to 43 stay..ten undecided.also poll shows MAJORITY in the shackled northern ireland would support returning to their legitimate country...Ireland.this would be two polls, I believe.

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    2. Palmer, the North has unshackled the the Irish from the Papist Nazi bum boy child molesters and slave labour. You are a fanatic Palmer. Up yer kilt.

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    3. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    4. The Kilwinning lodger, is frothing from his lips.

      Quick!, send for Ian Paisley, as he is on gardening leave and , sifting through the 'RHI' wood-pellets.

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    5. GWC2 wearing his brother-in-law's briefs at the Lodge again.

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    6. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    7. For a brief moment, I thought I had my apron on back-to-front.

      Whit ah cairrae-oan, yoan wid ah bin.

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  5. Same poll, I believe. They are not removing the Undecided which is the correct way to show poll results. It is a majority Yes with the Undecided removed.

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  6. A statement from the EU welcoming the prospect of Scotland joining/retaining membership would be a huge boost for YES. Cannot happen though until the UK deal is agreed. Interesting times.
    Seems the big move is on.

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  7. Pretty sure 'if held tomorrow' usually strongly favours NO. So this is a good sign

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  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. The 'If brexit goes ahead' result is the same as panelbase got 3 times over the course 2017 when you add the 'independence' options together.

    http://www.whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/given-that-the-uk-has-voted-to-leave-which-is-your-preference-regarding-scotlan#table

    The UK has been living on borrowed time since the brexit vote. It's just more people are saying no to some snap, 'plan-free' (aka brexit style) iref held suddenly / out of the blue 'tomorrow'. Which to be honest, is a sensible response if you actually answer the actual question rather than try to read different meanings into it.

    As for Salmondgate...


    I've always said that Leave won because of John Major's affair* with Edwina Currie. This is how people decide important constitutional matters. Everyone knows that.

    (*actually estabished)

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    1. Okay, so now I think we are approaching the interesting times as scottish_skier has reappeared!!

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    2. Welcome back Scottish Skier.

      You've been missed.

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  10. Fieldwork is 24th-29th August 2018

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  11. Full tabs here http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Scotland-website.pdf

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    1. They didn't weigh the results by 2014 - I think that's the likely reason for the higher yes vote than normal.

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    2. But they also didn’t include 16 and 17 year olds, so the yes vote may be higher

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    3. The cover sheet says 18+, but if you look at the Excel tables the first category is 16-24, so I suspect the cover sheet is wrong (it also refers to Census 2010, so they're no stranger to typos). There's no weighting by any political factor except 2016 referendum.

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    4. MORI don't do any political weighting (only demographic) I understand, yet their record in Scotland is as good as the others. In fact telephone polls like MORI were historically hardest on Yes.

      False recall / regret / saying you voted X when you actually voted Y tactically can all plague past vote weighting (think of the mess that was 2010 weighting in Scotland - that was false recall by people who said they voted SNP when they in fact tactically did not). By contrast, folk don't tend to get their age / job / location etc wrong.

      So, not weighting to the 2014 iref isn't much of a concern. No more so than other caveats that apply to other polls.

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  12. Those numbers, especially 49% yes for a referendum held tomorrow, are very positive, although of course the issue is we have no previous poll from this company to compare to. Obviously caution is needed, although 49% here isn't too far from the 47% in Survation's last poll and it is perfectly possible there has been a shift since then, it could also be Deltapoll are very on the yes friendly end of the spectrum.

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  13. I agree with Johnny. My response to scottish_skiers reappearance was exactly the same

    But I also think that we HAVE re-entered the interesting times, and actually far more interesting than 2012-14.

    Then it was a positive campaign against a status quo of the Obama Cameron era.

    Now it will be a positive campaign against forces - Trump, Brexit - that reveal that status quo for what it always was:

    arrogant exceptionalism that doesn’t recognise we can’t survive if we think we can have our social and ecological cake and eat it, if we think we can have everything our way and not expect a savage rebound, for example
    - make vicious wars in the Middle East and not expect a reaction, including innocent refugees fleeing this way;
    - burn the planet down, yet expect to have a climate humans can live in.

    It’s time to make independence about independence from the arrogance driving inequality and planet wrecking destruction, as much as from the money laundering undemocratic City of London/ Westminster that embodies it.

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  14. Thanks Roger Mexico, that’ll teach me not to scimp on my research! Talking of which, there’s more interesting stuff from scottish_skier

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    1. Fuck off jocko paper nat si cunts. God Save The Queeb. Rule Britainia.

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    2. Dom Pop UK Ok AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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