Saturday, June 30, 2018

Panelbase poll suggests the prize of staying within the EU will boost Yes support

The new full-scale Scottish poll from Panelbase, which is being released bit by bit over on Wings Over Scotland, has failed to provide any comfort for the small minority of SNP parliamentarians who take the view that the party needs to water down or reverse its pro-Europeanism to win back Yes voters from 2014 who want to leave the EU.  The poll shows that, when the independence question is asked on the assumption that an indy Scotland would definitely stay in the EU, Yes support is in fact several points higher than in recent Panelbase polls that asked the standard independence question.

The UK is currently scheduled to leave the EU in March 2019.  If a referendum on Scottish independence was held around this time, and if a Yes vote meant that Scotland would stay in the EU, which way do you think you would vote?

I would vote for an independent Scotland in the EU: 49.4%
I would vote for Scotland to stay in the UK and leave the EU: 50.6%

That's about as close to a 50/50 split as you can get, and compares to figures of Yes 44%, No 56% in the last Panelbase poll that asked the standard independence question.  (I gather from my informant that Stuart Campbell didn't get Panelbase to ask the standard question, so there's no direct comparison available within this poll itself.)  So it looks as if simply convincing people that independence more or less guarantees EU membership would be enough to add around 5 or 6 points to Yes support at a stroke.

Of course, this doesn't prove that Yes haven't lost a minority of supporters because of Brexit (in fact they almost certainly have), but what matters going forward is whether a particular pitch would increase or decrease support from where it currently stands.  It looks from this poll as if putting a doubt in people's minds as to whether the SNP want Scotland to remain a full part of the EU could potentially be a major strategic blunder.

As you probably saw a couple of days ago, the poll also found that a slim majority (50.6%) want a second independence referendum to take place within the next eight years, and a much more comfortable majority of 66.5% want it to take place at some point in the future.  Of course these results are always very susceptible to the way the question and possible answers are framed by the polling company, but nevertheless there is no real doubt that when the Tories say "the people of Scotland don't want another independence referendum", they are quite simply not telling the truth.

56 comments:

  1. Junkers Burd Bit on the SideJune 30, 2018 at 6:33 PM

    Seems the real Scots want to leave Junkers exclusive dinner table subsidised by the wurking class.. The others want a meal ticket.

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    1. So only 38% of Scots are "real"?

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    2. Scots negotiators will ensure a good outcome to our EU ambitions.
      The EU will appreciate that they're dealing with a different and positive attitude after the arrogance of the Tory Brexit team.
      Scotland will be welcome and Europe will say so publicly in the coming months.

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    3. Und millions of euros will be transferred to jock bank accounts och eye ra noo und pomme frittes mitte tomaten ketchup.

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    4. Where's your evidence?

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    5. His spelling in German is almost as bad as it is in English.

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    6. Its nearly time to get behind the boys jocks, big game tonight, your nation, your national anthem and it'l make a change from supporting the jocknatsis rovers pile of shite pubteam you guys normally support.

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    7. COME ON ENGLAND

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    8. I'm a randy pop tart. I like Anonymous sex but usually when they're not mental. I do anyone.

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    9. It looks like GWC2 is offering Anonymous a good shagging. But, they're the same person, so how's that going to work? No videos please.

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    10. Someone's getting excited by Scotty Poppers natsis, jock yer latte, jock yer latte, jock yer, jock yer, jock yer latte.

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    11. Try learning to read. Little Miss Dimwit Nickerflake

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  2. I see that @leaskyHT has denied any responsibility for investigating the conservative dark money scandal. Apparently it's a politics story and he knows nothing about politics being a specialist in investigating shell companies and international money-laundering.

    File under, "you couldn't make it up."

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. The 'walkout' really had NO effect on this question at all?

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    1. I doubt it. It's bang in line with the last time the same question was asked, and there was no sign in the poll of the walkout significantly increasing support for the SNP.

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    2. COME ON ENGLAND

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Its nearly time to get behind the boys jocks, big game tonight, your nation, your national anthem and it'l make a change from supporting the jocknatsis rovers pile of shite pubteam you guys normally support.

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    2. COME ON ENGLAND

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  6. James we had a 2 question referendum in 1997 to set up the Scottish parliament, and that worked and didn't confuse people. Do you think that a 2 question referendum for Indy and EU next time would give both sides of the EU debate a chance to say Yes or No
    (First question the indy question)

    like

    question 1
    Should Scotland be an Independent Country

    question 2
    Should an independent Scotland be in or connected to the EU

    The 2nd question might give the yes/leave voters a chance to have a say on this

    does it have merit/strength to ask both???

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    Replies
    1. Since the question has never been put:
      Scotland should remain in the EU?
      Yes
      No

      No

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    2. COME ON ENGLAND

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  7. Then we’d need a four way referendum - in UK out EU, in EU out UK, in UK in EU, out UK out EU?

    It’d be pretty safe to say there would not be a majority for any one of these options. It’s even be presage to say there would not even be a 35% plurality for any of these options.

    How are we ever going to resolve this? I’m a unionist and I respect nationalists, but eventually we need to settle on a status-quo.

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    1. Judging from the Irish precedent, the status quo of independence will be fairly easy for people to live with. A Yes vote in the next independence referendum should settle the issue for good. No guarantees, of course, but that does seem highly likely.

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    2. Good argument but 2 things - We can see that people are trying to scupper/soften Brexit...would that happen with a 52% win with Indyref2? Would it go on forever like Brexit?

      Would a 52% win for no in Indyred2 settle things?

      The thing about Ireland in the 1920s was that a huge majority wanted independence in the south, not 50-50 or 45-55 or whatever.

      In the north it was closer to 50-50 so the status-quo remained.

      How big a majority do we need to change things and be sure that that majority won’t change?

      Most in the whole UK don’t want Brexit now, do we go back on it?

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    3. It would only be a three-way ref, though. In UK in EU is not an option.

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    4. No voters tend to be clustered at the older end of the age spectrum: this is the big difference between them and remain voters.

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    5. "Good argument but 2 things - We can see that people are trying to scupper/soften Brexit...would that happen with a 52% win with Indyref2? Would it go on forever like Brexit?

      Would a 52% win for no in Indyref2 settle things?"

      I think that's a reasonable comment. If we can leave the EU on a 52% vote then Scotland can become independent on a 52% vote, but I do agree that the politics of a narrow Yes win are unlikely to be any less messy than the politics of the narrow Leave win.

      There's a lot to be noted from the near-paralysis post-EU referendum vote: initial political vacuum, subsequent Prime Minister change, a General Election largely as a direct result of both the vote and the PM change, hung parliament, a government not knowing what it wants or even being able to agree in itself and without necessarily the votes to do much anyway hence constant can kicking, a main opposition that can't decide what its actually opposing, leaver and remainer positions becoming ever more entrenched, the issue of "exactly what the vote was for" e.g. exactly what bits are we leaving and what do we want to stay in, calls for parliamentary votes, rerunning referendums, running other referendums on the deal, little progress apparently made two years on, talk of extending transition periods, the EU not really understanding what the UK government is trying to negotiate, it's all been a bit of a calamity really.

      And that's all when you have the natural timetable set out by the A50 withdrawal process. Imagine what the dithering would be on the UK's part without that?

      A lot of that is down to the incompetence of May/the Conservatives/the UK government, but a lot of it is also just the natural political reaction to a very important binary vote won by a fairly narrow margin.

      So I suspect a Yes 52% win would be at least as politically complex. I can well imagine the Scottish Government being frustrated by trying to negotiate with the current
      lot at Westminster, delaying tactics, political vacuums, ongoing Holyrood politics, plus (like now) floating public perception on the whole thing.

      I don't see it as a reason not to pursue independence and given how much work still needs to be done to get to that position there's no real point of getting ahead of ourselves and worrying about what happens in that instance until it actually happens, but "forewarned is forearmed" and it may actually turn out better to have learned this through the Brexit process first than as part of post a 2014 Yes win. The politics of achieving independence are unlikely to end at the moment of any Yes win.

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    6. COME ON ENGLAND

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    7. Union 2.0,
      don't believe any of your 'good argument' rhetoric.

      Didn't hear you or any of your Unionist fellow travelers arguing that the last referendum had been too close and simply not decisive enough. Instead it was 'overwhelming' etc.

      The truth is that 52% for Yes will absolutely be 'decisive', simply because I do not believe you or any of your Unionist allies have the stomach for a prolonged democratic defense of your union.

      The fact is: The only reason we are here today is because the supporters of an Independent Scotland absolutely refused to let their democratic fight for an independent Scotland be sidelined or be removed from political centre stage even after a terrible moral crushing defeat.

      We, the grassroots Yes movement survived that, not only survived but grown stronger from it. It's a very easy thing to underestimate such a thing because its an everyday reality for us all.

      I see absolutely no evidence of even the shadow of an equivalent social movement forming within Unionism. On defeat, even by a seemingly tight margin of 52%, my bet is that unionism will curl up and die in Scotland.

      We will see the odd ugly 'George Square' Orange Order EDL knuckle draggers but that will simply speed the demise of an utterly out of date colonial outlook to government. 5 years after a 52% Yes win I think you will find it hard to drum up anyone outside the Tory Party willing to admit they voted NO.

      God, even 'Reasonable' Unionists like yourself are unable to articulate a positive case for your union that doesn't require a fondness for a mythic Britishness that died with empire.

      If you are going to start hanging your hopes on 52% or 54% YES not being a decisive win, then you better start building a 'Scottish' unionist grassroots movement that has the democratic guts and will power to survive such a loss. That's a Scottish one mind...

      I and many others here will tell you that kind of survival of a common political will is no everyday event. Unionism in Scotland simply no longer has the required self sustaining resources to survive even another campaign never mind any kind of IndyRef defeat.

      That's why all we hear from you and every other Unionist is No IndyRef2.

      braco

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  8. The Bookies FavouriteJune 30, 2018 at 11:24 PM

    Da udder 62% live in Govanhill the first meensters bread basket doo da.

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    1. Oh my heavenly hairbrush. It's Lorna Vunt. Whoosh. It's the Low Low Vunticle.

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    2. Its nearly time to get behind the boys jocks, big game tonight, your nation, your national anthem and it'l make a change from supporting the jocknatsis rovers pile of shite pubteam you guys normally support.

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    3. Stench of this.

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  9. Has anyone else noticed how none of the troll's ravings are ever backed up with links or evidence?

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    1. COME ON ENGLAND

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    2. Its nearly time to get behind the boys jocks, big game tonight, your nation, your national anthem and it'l make a change from supporting the jocknatsis rovers pile of shite pubteam you guys normally support.

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    3. Whoosh! I did a swifty. Oops...

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  10. It was the British side who offered a section 30 order in 2014 after the Indyref had been called.
    We don't need one but if offered we must insist on equality on both press and TV coverage.
    Nae mair loaded TV panels or skewed newspaper reviews.
    Above all make it clear, Scotland will not be bullied.

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    Replies
    1. Its nearly time to get behind the boys jocks, big game tonight, your nation, your national anthem and it'l make a change from supporting the jocknatsis rovers pile of shite pubteam you guys normally support.

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    2. COME ON ENGLAND

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  11. I think you all have to be very careful here. You're dancing on the head of a pin. There is no room for error nor misjudgement. This should only go for a vote once the result is clear.

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    1. You sound like a member of the Chinese politburo demanding to know the result of an election before it can be held. Democracy can't be tamed in the way you suggest.

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    2. Hoi. Back to earth sunny boy. What's yor game? Eh? What's yor game?

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    3. Calling you out on your bullshit, troll.

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    4. Hold on to yor wig, missus.

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  12. Its nearly time to get behind the boys jocks, big game tonight, your nation, your national anthem and it'l make a change from supporting the jocknatsis rovers pile of shite pubteam you guys normally support.

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  13. Aye, Calman considering his position anent Indy. A bit like losing a last minute equaliser at the fitba.

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  14. http://rawabiti.com/kBmgA make money online in home from survey Germany's

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    1. You forgot to address this to the troll, pal.

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    2. Yor drifting in an out of reality. Like a spoondrifter. I feel sorry for you. Nobody want's yor diddly pop. Not even Dale Winton

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