Sunday, April 8, 2018

Landmark Panelbase poll finds 42% of Scottish public want a very early independence referendum

Today brings word of a full-scale Scottish poll from Panelbase, and not for the first time it illustrates beautifully the yawning chasm between the actual state of public opinion, and the fictional version of public opinion that the unionist media would rather we heard about.  Ludicrously, the Times (who commissioned the poll) claim there is "little support" for a pre-2021 independence referendum, even though the poll actually shows that a whopping 42% of the electorate - the sort of percentage that governments are elected on - want a referendum within around twelve months, let alone within three years.  17% want it to be held while Brexit is still being negotiated, meaning within less than one year, and an additional 25% want it at the end of Brexit negotiations, meaning in about a year's time.

As I've noted in the past, the format of Panelbase's question on referendum timing isn't ideal.  There is no obvious option provided for people who want a referendum in two or three years' time - anyone in that position is effectively forced to be more negative about a referendum than they really feel (by choosing the third option of "no referendum in the next few years") or to be more bullish about timing than they really feel.  Which way such people are jumping in the poll can only be a matter of speculation.  What I would point out, though, is that the relatively even split of 58% against a very early referendum, 42% in favour, has occurred in spite of a prolonged spell in which the SNP have not been openly making the case for a vote.  If they had been, it seems at least conceivable that the numbers would be even more favourable.

Just as was the case in the Ipsos-Mori poll a few weeks ago, there is no sign whatever of Pete Wishart's so-called "indy-gap" - a claimed phenomenon of support for an early referendum running significantly below support for independence itself.  In reality, support for an early referendum (42%) is once again essentially identical to support for independence (43%). 

The Yes vote continues the trend of recent months by remaining static.  Some pollsters have shown Yes essentially static in the mid-40s, some (like Panelbase) in the low 40s, and some in the high 40s.  These are simply 'house differences' between the various firms, and it's impossible to know who is closest to the truth.  It's a remarkable turnaround from the long indyref campaign that Panelbase online polling is now on the No-friendly end of the spectrum, and that Ipsos-Mori telephone polling is on the Yes-friendly end.

There are also Westminster voting intention numbers -

SNP 36% (-5)
Conservatives 28% (+1)
Labour 27% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
Greens 2% (n/c)

The drop in the SNP vote may look alarming, but the 41% recorded in the previous Panelbase poll was the highest in any poll from any firm since the general election, so it may have been an inflated number caused by the margin of error.  This is only the second post-election poll (out of nine) to put the SNP below the 37% recorded on election day, but there has been no reduction in the eight-point election gap between SNP and Tory, and only a statistically insignificant one-point reduction in the gap between SNP and Labour.  So even if this poll was accurate, it's not clear that the SNP would be losing seats in an early election.

More details and analysis to follow...

30 comments:

  1. This seems to be the first Panelbase since September 2017. A bit odd. I suspect that a lot are commissioned but never published because they are inconvenient for the Unionist propaganda effort.

    Nevertheless, the Westminster VI is fine: effectively no change from the GE. Not bad after 11 years in government.

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  2. "When Brexit negotiations are concluded" is surely only about 6 months away, isn't it?

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  3. Start the campaign watch the numbers shoot up
    Also, and I've said this several times, are we doing democracy by newspaper polls, if so what's the point of ever voting, unless you're an anti Independence newspaper that is, which they all are
    Who's running the democracy here, us or newspapers
    If they want to stand for election they should and let's see how many of them get elected, until they do that they have no right to a say except their one vote which we all have

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    1. Well said. Time to grasp the thistle.

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    2. You do not believe in democracy. 2014 and 2016 were irrelevant to you nat si bhoy. You kid no one but yourself.

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    3. State of this.

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  4. Theresa May believed in the polls last May. LoL.

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    1. She is still in power and laughing at you nat si Thicko.

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    2. State of this and its servile devotion to its Tory masters.

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  5. Like the GB polls, the Scotland ones are static. Looking at the lastest poll from each company they're all pretty similar to one another. 

    Panelbase: 
    SNP: 36% Con: 28% Lab: 27% Lib: 6%

    Ipsos Mori
    SNP: 39% Con: 25% Lab: 26% Lib: 6%

    Survation 
    SNP: 39% Con: 24% Lab: 27% Lib: 7%

    YouGov
    SNP: 36% Con: 23% Lab: 28% Lib: 6%

    Polls since last year consistently show the SNP, Labour and Lib Dem shares all within margin of error from the GE result and Tory vote down a bit. "Others" would of course break for the main parties in a real GE and I reckon probably pretty evenly. 

    This is of course very interesting because it's difficult to tell where we are at, as most Scottish seats are so marginal that even the small MOE changes shown from poll to poll would result in a quite a few seats changing hands, and we don't know if there has been any regional swings.

    Indepdence support remains steady too, there's obviously some house effect with Panelbase and YouGov showing yes a little lower and Survation and Ipsos Mori a little higher which cannot be easily explained.

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  6. The Yes movement in the lead up to 2014 did the oppposite of enslaving the weak. It inspired those rendered powerless to instead realise we hold the power if we don’t give it away.

    A second movement for Yes, starting from this much stronger base (a base that has held despite the seemingly overwhelming attempts to wear it down) can do so much better.

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  7. New GB-wide poll has the SNP at 4%, well up on the GE. And the widest Conservative lead in any published poll since the general election. Labour ought to be miles ahead at this point in the political cycle if they are to win next GE.

    Con 43% (-1)
    Lab 38% (-3)
    LD 8% (nc)
    SNP 4% (+1)
    Grn 3% (+1)
    UKIP 3% (+1)

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2018/04/voting-intention-conservatives-in-the-lead.html/

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    1. Those figures are an alarming testament to the power of the media. Yes, Corbyn is a catastrophic leader for Labour, but May is an even worse PM than Brown or Cameron. Consumers of TV and papers are getting the message that things aren't really that bad, and May and team and fighting plucky John Bull's corner. Scary people to share a polity with.

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    2. By what means do you judge that May and Corbyn are catastrophic? You do not really have a clue!

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    3. State of this.

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    4. State of this and its servile devotion to it's Tory masters.

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    5. Whit a knob and only tae be pitied not scolded,

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    6. State of this.

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  8. Scotland sub-sample:
    SNP 46% (+9)
    Con 22% (-7)
    Lab 16% (-11)
    LD 13% (+6)
    Grn 3% (+3)
    UKIP 0 (nc)

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  9. I often wonder if folks in the the media and other places have missed the obvious when it comes to SNP Westminster voting intentions and last years General Election.

    In 2014 45% of Scots voters psychologically left Westminster behind and there's no real going back from that. However, with the 2015 election we saw an opportunity to send many SNP MP's to Westminster in order to really make Scotland's voice heard/feet to fire etc etc. What happened ? Nothing much.

    6 MP's or 56 MP's doesn't and didn't make any difference whatsoever. None. at. all. QED there is very little point in voting in Westminster General Elections anymore. Scotland's voice isn't heard, there are no feet to the fire and everything the SNP do is simply ignored or talked out. Come 2016 we could all see what was happening, and that's why in my opinion the SNP lost so many votes that didn't seem to go or transfer to other parties. A full house of SNP MP's wouldn't have made any difference. I did vote myself, but there was none of the accompanying enthusiasm or hope I had in 2015.

    Sending independence minded MP's down to Westminster is now absolutely pointless so people aren't making the effort go out and vote for them to be there. Why bother when they're just talked over and ignored ? Pete Wishart and a few others might actually be confusing a complete lack of enthusiasm and folks scunnered with Westminster general elections which make no difference anyway... with a general support for his own party, a 2nd referendum and independence. They are very different things.

    Sending SNP MP's to be ignored at a Westminster we all want to leave anyway fills one with abject depression and boredom. An SNP announcing a 2nd ref is a completely different prospect altogether.

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    1. For around 70K a year + expences I would have no problem being ignored. However being ignored is not the case as the Nat sis have plenty to say in Parliament although most of it is sound bites and irrelevant. Most people do not have time to watch Parliament as they are at work.

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    2. 6 or 56 MPs do make a difference. You get extra questions & privileges if you’re the third biggest party in Parliament. No party has a majority so the more MPs the more leverage.

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    3. Spot on, Anonymous (my favourite poet too).

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  10. Terrible BBC bias at the CW Games. Wales trounce the Jocks at the mens bowling, big fat beer belly Jock misses with last shot. Vote Yes.

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    1. Hello, Glynis. Are you well?

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    2. I am Ok but Neil has all sorts of health issues due to his time as an EU Commissionaire. How I miss those days when we could just get a helicopter to take us to any party and piss it up with the cognesenty. Alas we need our injections. But keep up the fight against the Brexiteers, hic.

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    3. State of this.

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  11. Sillars' Pro-Brexit, Ant-Indy2 stance will make him Reporting Scotland's dream posterboy, earning him lots of lucrative spots on the BBC & he can ramble away in his inimitable style in the Union press.

    I think I have the right to feel a little bit bitter about Sillars, as I now feel conned by Jim out of £100 to his wee van campaign, during Indyref1, although I did so only in memory of his late, wonderful wife.

    I have never really trusted Jim Sillars as I'm long enough in the tooth to remember his anti-SNP years, before his 'conversion'.

    So expect to hear a lot from Jim during Indyref2.

    My plea to Jim, if he perchances to read this, is this; if he does believe in Scotland's right to democratic sovereignty at all, once Indyref2 is announced by our democratically elected First Minister, Jim Sillars should put his own pro-Brexit agenda to one side and fight as hard as the rest of us for our freedom to make up our own minds on independence and, eventually, Brexit too.

    In 2016 I voted remain, convinced it was the best option, but I have been appalled by the EU since they turned a blind eye to Spain's atrocities on 1 October 2017. I know a lot of people who feel the same as I do.

    My EU convictions are now gone and I feel entirely amibivalent about staying in or rejoining. I would be quite content now to take a Norwegian stance, although I do still hope these EAW will have to focus the EU's attention on Rajoy's chicanery, to say the least, but that's a separate issue from independence for Scotland asap.

    So, unlike Sillars, and as a true Scottish democrat, I will trust my fellow Scots to make their own decision on Independence and Brexit, unlike Mr Sillars, who seems happy to turn his political coat when it suits him.

    Nil Points, Jim.

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    1. Great comment Bibbit Blair. Thanks

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