Friday, February 23, 2018

Fresh humiliation for hapless Ruth Davidson as Tories LOSE by-election in "safe" Scottish Borders ward

The full result from Selkirkshire hasn't been published yet, but I thought you might enjoy the headline while we're waiting.  Before you get too excited, the Tories were defeated by an independent candidate rather than the SNP, but even so.

UPDATE: Here's the result, and a finer advert you could never see for why it's so important for SNP supporters to use their lower preferences in local council elections.  The Tories were leading on first preferences by a seemingly comfortable six percentage points (albeit their share of the vote was sharply down on their result in the ward last May).  But they still lost, because enough SNP, Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters gave their lower preferences to the leading independent candidate.  The beauty of preferential voting is that even if your favourite candidate or party is well off the pace, you can still help prevent your least favourite party from claiming the seat, and that's exactly what happened here.  Well done to the progressive people of Selkirkshire for using the voting system correctly.

Selkirkshire by-election result (first preference votes):

Conservatives 35.7% (-6.4)
Independent - Penman 29.7% (n/a)
SNP 19.8% (-2.4)
Independent - Gunn 6.3% (-3.5)
Labour 3.8% (+0.1)
Liberal Democrats 2.7% (-0.6)
Greens 2.0% (-1.0)

Even after five counts (ie. after four candidates were eliminated) the Tories were still narrowly ahead by 1307 votes to 1231.  But the decisive moment came when the sizeable pile of SNP votes were transferred on the sixth count - 291 went to the independent, and only 35 went to the Tories, leaving the independent victorious by a margin of 1522 votes to 1342.  If no SNP voters at all had used their lower preferences, Selkirkshire would now be stuck with another Tory councillor.

There's always the fascination of seeing how Labour votes transfer when both the SNP and Tories are still in contention.  In this case the winning independent was the biggest beneficiary of Labour transfers, but nevertheless more than twice as many Labour voters transferred to the SNP as transferred to the Tories.  Clearly the much-vaunted unionist voting bloc has its limitations, even in territory such as the Borders where you'd think the anti-Nat pitch would have some purchase.

The slight fall in the Liberal Democrat vote from 3.3% to 2.7% may not look terribly significant - but when you realise this was a ward in which the Lib Dems took 19.7% of the vote as recently as 2012, it puts things in a completely different perspective.  In Westminster terms, this is part of a constituency that was a Lib Dem heartland until very recently.  So much for the "fightback".

Although the SNP vote fell a little, the fact that the Tory vote fell significantly more means there was technically a swing from Tory to SNP of approximately 2%.

42 comments:

  1. As the Tesco ad puts it-'every little helps'!

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  2. Anybody but the Tories. ABTT!
    That'll dae me.

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  3. Yup, what I suspected about an anti-Tory transfer after reading the initial brief reports. And there will be a whole lot of anti-something votes in different constituencies if we do get another General Election in June.
    But I specially enjoyed the LibDems ending up as the scrapings on the floor in David Steel Country. That's what you get for pan-unionist collusion.

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  4. Who is Caroline Penman? Has she publicly taken a view on independence or does she just keep her head below the parapet on such matters?

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    1. The winner for her is that she is not a toxic tory, almost anything has to be better than that.

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    2. But is the really not a Tory? It is always hard to tell if an independent is really independent or just someone hiding their true colours.

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    3. Listening to her interview, she comes across as a genuine independent. But even if she wasn't, a Tory-leaning independent would still be preferable in 95% of cases to an actual Tory.

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  5. GWC2 won't like this. Has anyone even thought of him? He won't like this.... We could do a whip round, try to cushion his wrath preemptively. We certainly need to do *something*, lest there be invective (once he gets in from Conservative Central office and it is Friday so he could well be finishing early). Imagine it. Imagine how bad he could get.... And lo His wrath did smite down upon the Nats. And, thither, the Nats did renounce their heinous faith upon His new awakening. And GWC2 did bless the newly Converted NatBastards. And the Converted did spaketh not of the Tory collapse for fear of being sconed verily. And in time the earth did heal upon itself. And GWC2 did become pleased with the new way of things, for the things becameth of his liking. Imagine him when Indy2 lands. Jesus.

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    1. Yep. A wee quick message to SiU lurkers - we know you're here; we can hear you hyperventilating - make GWC2 your chief spokesman. Just a thought...

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    2. Please don't give the person too much consideration or draw her on us here. Please don't pay her the attention she craves. She gets in the way of the adults. If anyone wants a rammy with her, maybe try twitter. Thanks.

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    3. You brought a smile to my face BF, thanks.

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  6. What great news! It would have been even better had the SNP candidate won, but the fact that Selkirkshire has one less Tory makes the world a more decent place. That's bucked me up on a busy Friday. Thanks.

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  7. Labour only got over 3%. Socialism is dead in Scotland. The two Tory parties got over 55% between them. Scotland is turning out to be like the USA with the main two parties being right wing.

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  8. Lovely end to an interesting week. That'll do very nicely!

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    1. Morag is a lovely Jockish name and kind of makes you think of the prick Bonnie Cherlie and Flora over ra sea tae Skye. Brings a tear tae ra een with sad old Jocko hard done tae stories. Bring back the old days and Monastries and priestly bum bhoys.

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    2. State of this.

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    3. Essex Shirking Class

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    4. Estralita McFadzeanFebruary 26, 2018 at 9:21 AM

      Gentlemen's Water Closet Too.

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  9. Do the initials G W C in GWC2 stand for Gross Whining Conservative?

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  10. Whitever happened tae the Jock working class heroes that wur gonny lead us tae Utopia.
    Where has big Tam gone tae an aw they revolutionaries that spent sae much time in the courts when the recession hit!

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  11. Police Scotland attending serious crash on M74 tonight.

    Wheels fell off an England-Bound "Sweet Chariot".

    LOL!

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    Replies
    1. Poor Francis laughing at his own patter. The rugby was at Murryfield ya auld knob not your Glesga East End Cathedral. The Englanders would have escaped south via the A1 (M1).

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    2. State of this.

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  12. You are arguing about a road, ya wee tosser???

    Really???

    Haven't been on here for a while.....but I must say you have gone rapidly downhill in the interim, sonny.

    Before, you were only a minor Yoon Fud - now, you are a complete and utter Tory Tampon.

    Even for a British Nationalist Fruitcake.....you take the Nutella

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  13. My comment above was, very obviously, aimed at our resident village yoonatic, Glasgow Water Closet.

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    1. At least you know there are two main roads to your hated Engerland paddy me bhoy. An ah wisnae arguing about roads only giving a parochial nat si a lesson on geography. Now away back tae yer Celik videos. I note you do not show yer mugshot anymore are the DWP after you?

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    2. Probably a good reason why your mugshot is totally absent, but others can judge that.

      The only hatred on this site is yours for us Scots, sonny.

      Fortunately, what YOU think is of so little relevance to us Scots, that it doesn't really count.

      You are, always have been and always will be, a total and utter, irrelevant wee moron.


      Nothing has changed there - that is for sure.

      Now........away and change yer wee pish-pad - it must be soaking by now.

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    3. Losing the plot again auld yin with yer typical nat si insults which were helpful before the Jocko referendum. Your bile and hatred shone to our advantage.
      And do not call me wee or you'll get yer heid in yer hauns.
      A Unionist putting his/her mushot on the web would be like giving Jewish names and addresses to The Palestinian nutters.

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    4. State of this.

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    5. LOL!

      GWC - your threats are about as credible as your "name" on here.

      Save them for the 5-year-olds in your peer group, sonny.

      You are about as intimidating as Michael Gove on his bad week, ya wee turd.

      A stupid wee British Nationalist you were and a stupid wee British Nationalist you will always be.

      Now - away and take your daily drink of yellow snow.

      Tory Slime - no matter how much they deny it - are just Tory Slime.

      Slime away, Craig -Boy.

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    6. I am not a threat tae anyone, nat si ism is the threat and tossers like yourself. Take yer horliks and bikkies an go tae bed. You may wake up alive. We shall see!

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  14. Hey Francis or can I call you Frankie Boy the Nat sis must be in a helluva state if they have exhumed you to save them.

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    1. State of this.

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    2. Estralita McFadzeanFebruary 26, 2018 at 9:24 AM

      Attention, psychiatric services. Urgent case in the Gentlemen's Water Closet. Please attend.

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  15. Aye bring back Tudor Crisps with the wee enclosed blue damp salt bags that probably represent your current Scottish Nationalists. Damp and yellow now.

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