Friday, February 16, 2018

Buoyant SNP bag belter of a by-election win in bloomin' Bonnybridge

The SNP have had a frustrating run of local by-elections since the UK general election last year - they've had one or two creditable results in wards they were never going to win, but in wards where they should have been competitive they've fallen short of expectations.  At last tonight we can celebrate both a substantial increase in the SNP vote and an outright victory.

Bonnybridge & Larbert by-election result (15th February 2018):

SNP 38.6% (+4.9)
Conservatives 32.4% (+8.1)
Labour 24.2% (+8.5)
Greens 3.7% (-0.1)
UKIP 1.0% (n/a)

The SNP candidate was eventually declared the winner on the fifth count, and was presumably helped by the fact that the Tories were the main challengers.  Labour voters are less likely to transfer to the Tories than vice versa.

Obviously the fly in the ointment here is that both the Labour and Tory vote increased more than the SNP vote did, meaning there was technically a swing from SNP to both Labour and Tory.  However, the reason for the increases across the board is that the independent councillor Billy Buchanan wasn't on the ballot paper this time, leaving his 20% of the vote up for grabs.  I gather that Buchanan is more associated with the unionist parties, so it may well be that his votes are predominantly unionist in character, and that you would have fully expected them to switch mostly to Labour and the Tories.

18 comments:

  1. Good analysis James.
    Just as predicted it was really a batte between SNP & Tories, like last time too.
    Largely predictable 1st round rankings for all the candidates & full breakdown will be out tomorrow:-)

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  2. Independence supporterFebruary 16, 2018 at 6:22 AM

    Still never ceases to amaze me that the scumbag Tories are a second choice for many Scots, must be a massive amount of snobs and dumbass royalists in the country or Westminster has bussed in even more English voters. !!

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    Replies
    1. It’s unbelievable frankly. Who with a conscious would? I’m all right Jack!

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    2. The punters first choice seems be the Tartan Tory scum... who are opposing Labour on rail nationalisation.

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  3. It's still a problem with 56%+ for the unionists. Do Scots not realise that if they vote unionist they are going to get shafted?

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  4. And cue the working class dickhead troll with its pathetic input where are you dickhead

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  5. Aren't older, more conservative and unionist voters reputedly more likely to turn out for local by-elections? A win in circumstances usually favouring the opposition sounds pretty good to me.

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  6. That must be what 99% of votes for pro-EU parties.

    Impressive.

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    Replies
    1. You can juggle all the figures tae the coos come hame but 32% of free Scots voted not to be dominated by the EU Superstate. We are the real Scots not you pretend bunch of nat sis. Now go and crawl up Junk ers erse.

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    2. The Great Humza is still to give an undertaking to Support the Nationalisation of the East Coast Trains. Could it be anything to do with Stagecoach that great socialist enterprise who maybe, perhaps have funded the Tartan Tory (scum).

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    3. State of this.

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  7. Bonnybridge! Is that the place that is the capital of UFO spaced oot Nat sis..?

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  8. I'm sorry, I know I am an arsenal. You see, I wasn't loved as a child.

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    Replies
    1. The impersonators are back, above 6:56pm. Go and get a job with a charity and abuse someone jocko. Preferably slit your wrists.

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    2. State of this.

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