Friday, December 22, 2017

Momentous Panelbase poll suggests Brexit could lead to majority support for independence

You've probably seen by now that Wings has a new Panelbase poll out.  It looks like this is merely the first of several questions from the poll that will be published over the coming days (making it an almost unique example of a political poll that was commissioned with the specific intention of keeping people entertained over Christmas!).

The UK is currently scheduled to leave the EU in March of 2019.  If a referendum on Scottish independence was held around this time, and if a Yes vote meant that Scotland would definitely stay in the EU when the UK left, which way do you think you would vote?

I would vote for an independent Scotland in the EU: 49%
I would vote for Scotland to stay in the UK and leave the EU: 51%

For the avoidance of doubt, this can't be taken to indicate a recent increase in support for independence, because the poll asks a non-conventional and hypothetical question, and indeed offers a choice between two non-conventional and hypothetical answers.  It's not directly comparable with more standard independence polls, which over the last few months have had the Yes vote hovering between 43% and 47%.  Nevertheless, it's an extremely interesting finding because it directly contradicts a narrative that is almost beginning to be regarded in some quarters as indisputable fact - namely that the SNP leadership made a serious miscalculation in 2016 and early 2017 by assuming that Brexit could in itself bring about majority support for independence.  The theory is that the Yes side has lost as many (or perhaps more) votes as it has gained, because too many people who voted Yes in 2014 and Leave in 2016 do not regard continued membership of the EU as a price worth paying for independence, while not enough Remain voters regard independence as a price worth paying for EU membership.  This poll suggests the opposite is the case - that explicitly tying independence to EU membership actually produces a net gain in Yes support, which is precisely what the SNP leadership thought would be the case all along.

As it happens, the proportion of Remain voters in the poll who say they would vote against independence (32%) is significantly higher than the proportion of Leave voters who say they would vote in favour of independence (21%).  But because there are far more Remain voters than Leave voters in Scotland, that's still enough to produce a net boost for Yes.

Of course, some will argue that the results of the poll are meaningless because the hypothetical scenario presented by the question will never come to pass - ie. if there's an independence referendum in early 2019, voters won't have absolute 100% certainty that an independent Scotland would remain in the EU (or rejoin after a short hiatus, which amounts to the same thing).  But if EU leaders are interested in the unexpected bonus of retaining one-third of the UK's land mass after Brexit, and it's not hard to see why they might be, it's quite conceivable that they could find a way of dropping sufficiently heavy hints about how easy an independent Scotland is likely to find it to remain a member.  That might produce much the same effect on public opinion as absolute certainty would.

By the way, don't be dismayed by the fact that the No side are slightly ahead even on the hypothetical question.  This poll is the quintessential statistical tie - meaning it's not possible to know which side is really ahead due to the standard 3% margin of error.  Looking at the raw numbers in the datasets, the result appears to be fractionally closer than even the headline numbers suggest - something like Yes 49.2%, No 50.8%.

One slight reason for caution is that people minded to vote No on a standard independence question seem to have been disproportionately likely to have said "Don't Know" to the question tying independence to EU membership, and thus many are excluded from the headline figures.  But that in itself is an intriguing finding.

56 comments:

  1. So after minimum 5 years of the entire British media casting all ethics to the wind, lying unreservedly and letting Unionist politicians say just about anything they can imagine as fact. This is the best they can manage against the YES side with no centrally active campaigning for independence.

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    1. Yep! And when real campaigning begins many of the faint hearts will be pulled into a YES vote. There is so much room to make inroads, eg to name but two, during a strong campaign many older people will be persuadable to YES as will be the women who currently are lagging men in Indy support. Also many of the Yessers who say they are now NO and anti-EU will in fact become YES again as the reality of Brexit hits them.

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    2. @James Coleman
      Seconded. Not long after the Brexit vote Dundee RIC did some canvassing in a working class suburb of Dundee. We chapped the door of a Leaver (who spouted a lot of stuff showing he was utterly ignorant of all the stuff the EU does for us) but when we put him on the spot wrt Yes he considered and said he would vote Yes again even it meant staying in the EU.

      So when you put people who have voted Yes before on the spot, Yes will tend to win. Your country comes before an allegiance to anything outside of it.

      Just be sure to tell Leavers that if they want to campaign for a Scotexit referendum they do so after Independence (though I reckon they should have to get a majority of Leave supporting MSPs in the parliament first. Yes had to, more than once so that would only be fair, but that bit can be left unsaid.

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  2. The bad news about Brexit hasn't even reached a trickle yet. Wait till some reality starts to kick in once the real negotiations get started and the Brexitiers are told what they have to suck on.

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  3. "Incorporation of Seceded States"

    The EU can't negotiate with Scotland officially because it's currently part of an already-member state. But there's nothing to stop the EU from releasing a little piece of preemptive legislation that would (putting it mildly) set the cat amongst the pigeons. And why wouldn't they? I've floated the prospect of such a piece of legislation more than once on twitter and the standard come-back is that the EU was against Scottish independence back in 2014. But back then it was in the EU's interests to back the member state - the UK - to keep it sweet, to keep it a member. This time it's in their interests to act against that member state and properly stick the fucking boot right into the balls-o-the-bastard. The EU could, in every likelihood, calf-off a significant part of the UK's negotiating stack-pile, for f-all effort. They'd be stupid not to. And you could bank your pants on that legislation being in crushing contrast to the shit-pile of a deal that'll be on the table - fishing rights, export tariff's, intellectual collaboration n project funding....

    This is going to get very interesting indeed.

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    1. Well-reasoned comment, can't say I disagree.
      The writing is starting to appear on the wall. The UK performance in this whole sorry affair has been unbelievably bad. The "cake and eat it" philosophy is still paramount - what a bunch of utter twats.
      Meanwhile, back in the real world, the SG/SNP are slotting in neat facilities that inspire confidence. From iconic bridges to heart-warming baby boxes, they are setting our ducks up in a nice neat row, ready for the big switch. They have even managed to thwart the poisoned challice of "Tax Raising Powers", implementing a system that makes the bands more flexible and only really hits higher earners (and by a very modest amount at that). The Tories are furious - that's not what's meant to happen.
      However...
      We will only get one shot at this tax raising malarkey while we are shackled to the UK. Next year, the Tories will swiftly slash budgets to Scotland to match the extra tax raised. Our options would be to raise again (no option really), point out that Scotland was now having the fiscal piss extracted, or call indyRef2 and hope all the stars are in perfect alignment to get that crucial majority.
      Personally, I think that will be the situation by then. Brexit will have started to really bite, the EU will have put their foot down over all this nonsense about open borders and special arrangements that only make sense inside the deluded heads of the UK negotiators. We will see the tangible benefits to self determination by the evidence shown by self-sufficiency in green energy production, an investment bank, viable NHS, business confidence, infrastructure improvements and excellent relationships with nearby countries to the north.
      thats just a small selection of on-going improvements - all funded for the most part by US, despite the Tory austerity measures. Factor in the impact of no CAP payments soon, fishery issues probably under threat as a bargaining chip by Westminster and the loss of our migrant workforce - and we will have to ask NO voters to stop bloody pushing and stand in an orderly queue to vote YES.

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  4. So Scotland would still vote No to independence even if it meant leaving the EU in 2019. In any case given the latest Holyrood polls now give the unionist parties combined a majority, hypothetical indyref2 polls are becoming increasingly irrelevant

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    1. Incorrect - as clearly stated in the blogpost, the poll is a statistical tie, meaning it is impossible to say whether Scotland would vote Yes or No in the specified hypothetical scenario. Your second point is an obvious nonsense given that an independence referendum is likely to be held *before* the next Scottish Parliament election, which is not due until May 2021.

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    2. They do breed them thick on the BritNatz side.

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    3. They breed them clever enough to put a cross on the ballot paper. The best way to win over Unionists is to act in a superior manner and slag them, a pure winner nat si idiot.

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    4. Ooh. That hit a sore spot...

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  5. Scotland would be black balled by Spain. The Spanish will not forget the Jock nat si attemps to interfere in their internal matters.

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    1. That's the fakest of fake news. Spain has never ever said it would block Scotland from membership of the EU. And even if they wanted to, they couldn't.
      Scotland is part of the Eu. We have joint membership with england. England leaves and Scotland stays. Simple and 100% legal within the rules.
      Any suggestion of Scotland being thrown out of the Eu is, and always has been total bollocks.

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    2. That is the fakest of news as we do not have joint membership. The UK is the present member. After brexit and Scotland does gain independence then Scotland would have to apply for membership. And bear in mind we would not have a currency on leaving the Union. In any case you are a grovelling jocko and not welcome in Scotland

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    3. State of this Tory shill.

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    4. There is no joint membership. The UK is a member, of which England and Scotland are integral parts.

      You are the one putting out FAKE NOOOZ!

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    5. Remember when it was said if Scotland left the union then england could stay as the succesor country.It will be the same when england leaves the EU.Except Scotland will be the succesor country.

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  6. In offly topic news.

    How difficult is it to have somebody sectioned? David Leask has clearly been driven insane by his obsession with russians hiding in the skirting boards and needs locking up somewhere safe for his and our protection.

    Could somebody who hasn't yet been blocked point out to the sad baldy prick that attacking russian propaganda is not the same as condemning a tv show which is only broadcast on Russia Today. If Dr Who was on Rt would good old leasky attack it as propaganda?

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  7. As a unionist, I read that this poll shows there is still no majority for independence even in the SNP’s ideal scenario (Scotland being allowed back in the EU without any difficulty).

    However the nation is so divided already, asking hypotheticals isn’t helpful in uniting the people. I don’t think this poll is all that useful to argue either way.

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    1. Unionists are always rambling on about "uniting people" which is just code for "agree with us because we want you to".

      Why don't you unite behind the Scottish Government instead?

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  8. We are out of the EU and will soon have a British passport. The jock fascist nat sis are grasping at their porridge oats. They are the walking dead. Most will return to their homes in the English shires and Dublin bedsits singing sad songs about the old days as they do.

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    1. Can anyone else make any sense of what this halfwit's dribbling on about here? It's damn near incoherent.

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  9. The purpose of a poll is to find out the state of public opinion, not to 'unite the people'

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    1. Yes I accept that. It’s just the hypotheticals I not think are helpful - what if the poll asked ‘would you vote for independence if the UK govt scrapped the Barnett formula and halved the Scottish budget’, these questions are a bit leading when you add in ifs and whens. That’s what I oppose because it stirrs devision.

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    2. The workers united will never be defeated and then they were. Thanks to the help from the Scottish nat si party.

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    3. Oh, not this Vile Nats '79 pish again...

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  10. And let's remember.....Brexit hasn't even begun to bite yet.

    Scots are already moving away from Brexit-UK and this will, undoubtedly,continue.

    Roll on 2018!

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    1. Brexit has not happened yet old Muppet. And 2018 will roll on as did your birth date. How was Pitt the younger auld yin?

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    2. Gibbering fool.

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  11. It is indeed good that we're making a net gain, but it obviously isn't enough - and we wouldn't want to win independence with just 50.1% of the vote anyway, would we? It's hardly the strong mandate that we would want to create a new nation. I think while explicitly tying independence with the EU creates - as we see - a swing, and levels the playing field, we need to be a bit more clever than that. We need to separate the issues, and we need to argue on a much clearer message.

    Post brexit, Scotland's worst case scenario - that being, due to our acceptance of free movement and the single market, joining EFTA/EEA alongside Norway, Iceland etc - is better than the UK's best case scenario, whatever that may be. Make that clear, make it clear that after independence we are likely going into EFTA/EEA, at least for the short run, and we don't have to worry about losing the yes voters from 2014 who are pretty apathetic about the EU and don't see it as an emotive reason to vote yes.

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    1. Except in a decade or so the UK may join EFTA too, especially once it has got immigration under control and if the EU becomes focused on the Eurozone the rest of the Scandinavian nations and most of Eastern Europe may join EFTA too.

      Remember the UK was in EFTA from 1960 until it joined the EEC in 1973

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    2. "and we wouldn't want to win independence with just 50.1% of the vote anyway, would we?"

      Answer: Categorically YES. The more the merrier, but 50.1% would be absolutely smashing.

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  12. The progress is slow but it is steady, helped undoubtedly by one of the most incompetent Westminster governments ever. The prize, through a combination of events is within reach. :)

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    1. Are you prepared for losing trade with England and NI also the use of the English road network and or possible trade tariffs? And the questions you nat sis never answer! What will the Scottish currency be? Where will you get all the money to pay for our welfare and public services? Do you think the EU will bail you out like they did with Greece?

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    2. If such things genuinely worried you then you would have never voted Brexit.

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    3. 1) Whatever currency we see fit to use; 2) the same way as every other country on earth - through taxation and investment; 3) the installation of responsible public sector borrowing regulations will negate that need.

      NEXT!

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    4. You faiked to tell us the currency before the referendum and this was part of your undoing.
      And you need to make money to borrow.. The capitalist bankers like interest!

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    5. No. You were told repeatedly that we would use sterling. Your wilful ignorance doesn't change that.

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    6. You could not use sterling as that is Bank of England. Try the Pollok Credit Union.

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    7. The Bank of England is merely a name for the Bank of the UK - and as such we, as partners in this Union, own a share of it.
      So telling a partner what they can and cannot do is extremely dubious, you Britnatsi imbecile.

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    8. Ecuador uses US Dollars. They never asked anybody for permission.

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    9. You do not want to be a partner therefore you lose all the privaleges. And why would you want to use English bank notes, you hate the English!
      Seems tae me you nat sis are just crawlers. Hiv some gumption, independence means independence. I thought you nat sis wanted the euro, make up yer f,n minds Jocko. At least the DUP hiv some bottle.

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    10. The DUPuppet strikes again...

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    11. You jocko fascists are on yer knees beggin tae be EU puppets. The DUP have proven they are not EU or ROI puppets. Erselickers up yer Junkers.

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    12. You're just in the huff because you didn't get the email.

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  13. "But if EU leaders are interested in the unexpected bonus of retaining one-third of the UK's land mass after Brexit, and it's not hard to see why they might be, it's quite conceivable that they could find a way of dropping sufficiently heavy hints about how easy an independent Scotland is likely to find it to remain a member"

    Seems plausible in theory but I think we all thought that would be the case post-Brexit vote - however despite some tweets, a decent amount of general goodwill and the odd meeting it has never really manifested itself into anything tangible.

    It may become a discussion point in an Indyref2 campaign, but I suspect more likely the EU will deal with only the political reality and say nothing along those lines (or at least nothing sufficiently concrete to be of use) until such time as a Yes vote has actually happened.

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    1. I wouldn't expect anyone to stick their neck out until a referendum is actually underway, so what's been said thus far is not much of a guide one way or the other.

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  14. There are a few problems here.

    EU membership can't be guaranteed for an independent Scotland in advance of independence. There would be some uncertainty, which unionists would exploit to the full.

    Also, if the brexit negotiations lead to a soft brexit, then people may be happy enough with that.

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    1. A very big 'if' given that the EU and UK have irreconcilable negotiating objectives.

      As stated in the blogpost, guarantees of EU membership are unlikely, but broad hints are a very different matter.

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  15. I have to assume that you nat sis would support the right off Dumfries and Galloway or Highland Region to remain in the Union if the people voted for it. You could end up with a central belt welfare state and no one to pay for it.

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    1. Are you suggesting that individual counties of Northern Ireland should have the right to join the Republic of Ireland if they wish?

      Is it three or four of the six counties that currently have a nationalist majority? I think it's four?

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    2. A Merry Xmas young James and I hope Santa came doon yer Lum.
      No I was not suggesting. The point I was making is do we have a free for all where for instance an area of a country that is prosperous can just vote to split an. I have been reading a bit about Catelonia and some living there are
      complaining about subsidising poorer areas of Spain. Reminiscent of the greedy jocks who wanted all the British oil revenues.

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    3. Couldn't even get through Christmas without some snark. Pathetic.

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    4. Join the homeless under the Heilanmans Umbrella courtesy of twelve years of the Jocko nat si party. See how you get through that ya tosser.

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    5. Now, now, Alistair. You can still be a small lick spittle, a and a bigot in an Independent Scotland.

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    6. And he illustrates it perfectly. Remember, he's just in the huff because he didn't get the email.

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