Sunday, December 3, 2017

An indyref is much more likely to take place in 2019 or 2020 than next year

First things first: a Survation-Watch update.  Stuart Dickson has spotted an article in the Sunday Post about a Scottish poll conducted by Survation between the 27th and 30th of November.  It was commissioned by an organisation called 38 Degrees and asks whether EU powers over devolved areas should be transferred direct to Holyrood after Brexit (as would happen automatically if it wasn't for the UK government's power grab in the Great Repeal Bill).  The results are predictable, albeit devastating for the UK government - almost two-thirds of the Scottish public want the powers to go to Edinburgh, not London.

The poll looks for all the world like a bolt-on question added to a full-scale poll commissioned by a different client.  So it looks like Survation have carried out the Scottish poll they promised - but so far the voting intention results are nowhere to be seen.  Maybe those will still appear over the coming hours or days - and if they don't, there'll be the tantalising possibility that maybe, just maybe, the client is holding them back due to disappointment with the numbers.  Something like that happened a couple of months ago, as you may recall.

What did turn up last night was a UK-wide Survation voting intention poll, which caused a sensation because it puts Labour in overall majority territory for the first time in years.  The Scottish subsample shows the following: SNP 34%, Labour 29%, Conservatives 23%, UKIP 8%, Liberal Democrats 7%.  That's not to be sniffed at - any sort of SNP lead in a poll that puts Labour on 45% at UK level is pretty good going.  Across all firms, twenty-five of the last twenty-seven subsamples have shown the SNP in first place.

To turn to a different subject, this month's issue of iScot magazine features Peter A Bell and myself making entirely opposite points about the timing of the second independence referendum, and doing so with equal confidence.  For reasons that I find hard to pin down, Peter is certain that the referendum will be held in September 2018, whereas I think a 2018 referendum is close enough to being impossible as makes no difference - although of course I do firmly believe that it should (and probably will) be held before the current mandate expires in May 2021.  Yesterday, Peter claimed that Nicola Sturgeon had dropped a heavy hint that 2018 was going to be The Year in remarks to the SNP National Council.  Others disputed that she had done any such thing, and I'm not surprised, because I'm baffled as to how Peter thinks a 2018 referendum is even feasible in practical terms.

If the UK government were prepared to pass a Section 30 order without fuss upon request, then of course holding a snap referendum at almost any time would be a trivial matter.  But all the indications are that they intend to persevere with the "now is not the time" tactic for a few years, which means any vote in 2018 would have to be of the consultative variety, held without Westminster's permission.  That makes it harder to do on a tight timetable, because the following steps would have to be followed -

1) Nicola Sturgeon would need to allow ample time for a renewed Section 30 request to be considered, in order to demonstrate that she isn't just going through the motions in making it.  She'll want to establish in the public mind that she bent over backwards to reach an agreement, and wasn't hellbent on going it alone.

2) She'll then need time to explain to the public why an "unauthorised" consultative referendum has become necessary - not least because the media will point out she's changed her own mind on that subject.

3) The Scottish Parliament will then need to go through the process of legislating for a referendum, which from a legal perspective will not necessarily be that easy.  The Presiding Officer's legal advisers will have to be satisfied that the proposal is within the parliament's current powers, which will require very careful wording.  If that is achieved, it'll still be important that the SNP are not seen to railroad such controversial legislation through parliament - there'll have to be proper time for reflection and debate.

4) There may then be legal challenges to overcome.

5) Last but not least, Ms Sturgeon will need to allow an appropriate length of time for the campaign proper.  I don't think anyone would want a campaign anything like as long as the one that preceded the 2014 vote - but any attempt to cram it into a few short weeks would look like a cynical tactic and might backfire badly.

I would suggest the last realistic date for a 2018 referendum is late October - anything beyond that would lead to concerns about the weather.  (Alex Salmond initially proposed that the first indyref should be held on St Andrew's Day 2010, but fate proved that wasn't such a great idea - there was heavy snow and traffic chaos on that day.)  So basically we're talking about a little under eleven months from now.  If Ms Sturgeon got the ball rolling right now or very soon, there might be just about enough time.  But that clearly isn't going to happen.  There'll be no announcement this side of Christmas, and probably not until well into the New Year.  That means the 2018 option will be effectively timed out, and we'll be looking at a probable date of 2019 or 2020.  I'm not at all downhearted by that, because it wasn't very long ago that siren voices within the SNP were seemingly trying to use the general election result as an excuse to "park" any talk of a referendum until beyond the 2021 election.  They now appear to have comprehensively lost the internal debate.

Does the near-impossibility of a 2018 vote mean that the referendum will be held after Britain officially leaves the European Union?  Quite possibly, yes.  Is that sub-optimal?  In my opinion, absolutely.  But if we wanted a September 2018 referendum, the time for making that case was during the summer.  It seems to me we lost that particular battle, but won the wider war to keep a pre-2021 vote firmly on course.  Speaking personally, I'm more than satisfied with that outcome.

27 comments:

  1. That's good to know, James. Thanks for the analysis.

    I think in that case I'm going to start applying for jobs abroad in the new year and make plans for my family to leave this country for good. I imagine once Brexit happens that emigrating might be more difficult to do (there will be floods of UK refugees from the professions!). If you think it will be hard to get a Section 28 order before Brexit, then I think the chances of Scotland ever holding another vote (that is not subject to British army intervention) is a fantasy after Brexit. See how the EU backed Catalonia? They will care even less about Scotland once we're out and London will be able to do absolutely anything it wants up here. Not that the EU has ever done a thing to help us anyway, mind.

    The UK is poised to tip into outright fascism after Brexit. I have been waiting for Scotland to come to its senses for too long now: if it waits until after Brexit it will cease to exist as a nation for good and its government will be dissolved. And my children's futures are more important.

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  2. I could stomach Scotref being called in Sept 2018 and the vote being held in Feb 2019 - that's 6 months of campaigning. We don't need more than that. And when it comes through for Yes, I'm hoping the EU will 'adopt' us (but I'm not holding my breath). I think on day two of the UK leaving the EU, their first task will be to destroy both the Welsh and Scottish parliaments. The narrative for that has already begun, with tentative articles on how little devolution has won for both countries, and what a waste of money/time devolved parliaments are etc. I think we underestimate how vicious WM will be when we attempt to go indy again. They have after all learnt at the elbow of Rajoy over the summer remember. Once they crash out of the EU they'll have nothing left, and nothing to lose except for Scotland.

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  3. Kangaroo says
    If the EU referendum can be reversed then we can't call an indyref as the UK may change its mind after we have called indyref2, thus negating it.

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    1. Much as I applaud the sentiment in your first statement (If EU referendum can be reversed) I think it's highly unlikely...! TM hasn't shown any appetite for hari - kiri thus far....

      As far as the EU is concerned we must follow the constitutional steps available to us within the UK to attain our independence.. If we do that they will back us... If we go down the Spanish route we'll get no backing from any voice within the EU27

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    2. Kangaroo says
      I was referring to the possibility, however remote, of the UK rescinding the A50 notice.
      They may also stay in the single market and/or customs union.
      Too many unknown unknowns to call indyref2 yet.

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  4. We don't want 2018 as that will be Union Jack waving time as it will be 100 years since the end of the Great Royalist war that was WW1 also there will be the wedding of yet another parasite to contend with. 2021 suits me.

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    1. Making up history on the hoof Mr Wilson! Anytime for a referendum suits me.
      You are a joke. So you get independence then you try and join the EU and give Scottish sovereignty away and try and do a trade deal with RuK which the EU will not permit.

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  5. It could take place in 2018 if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal. However, with the likelihood of a two year transition I think wise council will be to wait and see the deal and political situation in March 2019 and have a referendum either Sept 2019 or May 2020.

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  6. Sturgeons own words regarding the timing have not changed - a vote on Independence before we have left the EU. If exit date has been set for spring 2019 'no matter what'. Then SNP would have to hold the vote in dark winter months of Jan - March 2019. Any later and we would have officially left unless negotiations take place with EU to keep Scotlands seat warm pending a vote later in 2019.
    I understand legal and political difficulties in holding a vote in Sept 2018, but i do not see SNP waiting for section 30. Sure , make the request but in the expectation of this being denied and avoiding giving Westminster notice and time to mobalise and control the Independence message, i can well imagine that SNP will go for unexpected date close enough to the Brexit cliff, but enough time and distance to fight the Unionist rear guard.
    My guess is the starting gun will be fired late next year and vote held in May 2019.

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  7. I'm inclined to agree with you, but I notice Doug Daniel was also trailing that Nicola had hinted at 2018 in her National Council speech. I suppose there's normal procedure, and then there's things that happen when the world is falling down around your ears.

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    1. "... when the world is falling down...." is the time surely to grasp every opportunity which presents itself..?

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  8. Also if you look at the results of the previous Indyref, old people were the ones who tipped the balance against Scottish Independence, so in that sense waiting for more of those folks to shuffle off their mortal coil could also produce a Yes result in that the 50 and under crowd voted to leave decisively.

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    1. Not that old chestnut again. Even if it worked like that (and it doesn't), a few months or a year either way would scarcely make any difference.

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    2. As an "old chestnut" myself Thank you James..

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    3. Us older chesnuts are living longer and can still vote. Maybe Knickerless can top up our heating allowance and out do Our Gordon Broon. Maybe a cap on the upper voting age would help you nat sis. Halving the ammount of MSP'S on the gravy train would get my attention.

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  9. The other lesson that I hope is gradually sinking in is that small and independent Ireland wields greater influence in London than In-The-Union-Scotland Tory MPs and all (£2.5m for the poppy fund to their credit, I suppose). Gives a whole new meaning to the term "being part of something bigger".

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    1. Ireland is a puppet state of the EU. They lost any dignity when the Irish Borgias called another referendum to get their way... The Irish are just a bluffing tool for the EU. They will not hold the UK to ransom.
      The Jock nat sis will post brexit have to explain to the Scottish people why they want a referendum, why they want to join the EU and hand over Scottish powers
      to the EU. Time to start is now Jocko fash let us hear it now.

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    2. And your Poppy comment was ridiculous and insulting to those who put all the hard work in to obtain the revenue. The Tory or indeed any other party does not need mentioning on that issue.

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    3. " The Tory or indeed any other party does not need mentioning on that issue."

      Indeed not; that is why it was so offensive that they claimed the credit for it.

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    4. Well I never heard or seen anthing about their claim but if it is true then send me the evidence.

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  10. It is unlikely that a referendum will be held in this parliament, for a variety of factors - but the main ones being that brexit will likely be long, drawn out, and not as bad as some people have anticipated.

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    1. Well, considering that the Tories are " in charge" and they still have no actual plan...that is safe thing to say! How is that $ for the NHS coming? About as well as the Lannister gold? Watch out for Dragons!! Lol.

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    2. Bill, it is a very simple plan and that is to leave the EU. Westminster is in real talks with the Scottish Gov to return pre EEC /EU legislation back to the UK and devolved institutions. As the Stones would say it is all over now. The Jock money grabbin leaches now need to act responsibly and represent the UK Scots. Cut MSP'S by 50%. James should do a poll on that.

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  11. Yes 47% No 53% in a poll by Survation commissioned by the Record so the details will be known soon.

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  12. Along with the Yes 47%, David Clegg has tweeted that the Record will have details of the Survation poll tomorrow:

    INCOMING: New @survation Scotland poll in 2moro’s Daily Record.
    Here’s a flavour:
    #indyref2 voting intention:
    Yes 47%
    No 53%
    #buyapaper


    (I thought I better put it in full as he seems to have blocked most people in Scotland). We might get tables tonight, though #buyapaper makes me doubt it.

    As usual the Survation sub-sample need to be pretty much ignored as
    [a] The sample is only 78
    [b] As may of them (30%) voted Labour in June as voted SNP
    [c] 8% say they are going to vote UKIP.

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  13. The Jocko nat sis should be well ahead in the polls. They voted against brexit they support the ROI. They hate the English and the Ulster Unionist people. They hate the Scottish indigenous loyalist people. They support splitting up Spain. They want herman and the frogs tae run Scotland. Why are they still behind?

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