Friday, November 3, 2017

That ever-shrinking Tory minority government

After the SNP suspended Michelle Thomson and Natalie McGarry a couple of years ago, there were various articles in the unionist media gloating about 'the mystery of the vanishing SNP MPs'.  It might be worth noting, then, that other parties seem to have recently mastered the art of shrinking their own parliamentary representation.  This is the direction of travel since the general election in June...

Composition of the House of Commons:

Conservatives 314 (-2)
Labour 258 (-2)
SNP 35 (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 12 (n/c)
DUP 10 (n/c)
Sinn Féin 7 (n/c)
Independents 5 (+4)
Plaid Cymru 4 (n/c)
Greens 1 (n/c)

Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority

(The Speaker and Deputy Speakers are excluded from the above figures. Note also that Sinn Féin have not taken up their seats. Theoretically they can do so at any time, but in practice are highly unlikely to.)

Of course in one sense the Tory and Labour losses might be viewed as a mere technicality, because Jared O'Mara can still be expected to vote in line with the Labour whip and Charlie Elphicke can still be expected to vote in line with the Tory whip.  But I do wonder if there may eventually prove to be a distinction between an MP who still harbours realistic hopes of being readmitted to the party fold (such as Anne Marie Morris), and an MP who is accused of something of sufficient seriousness that it becomes hard to imagine any way back.  In the latter case, such a person may feel they have nothing left to lose, and the whips would have nothing left to bribe or threaten them with.

Those of you with a long memory may recall that nine Eurosceptic rebel Tory MPs had the whip withdrawn in late 1994, which technically and temporarily meant that John Major's majority was wiped out.  Robin Oakley, then the BBC's Political Editor, assured viewers that this was a masterstroke by the Tory whips, because suspended MPs typically show obsessional loyalty in an effort to be readmitted as soon as possible.  But the MP Rupert Allason, who'd had the whip withdrawn a year earlier, predicted that precisely the opposite would happen, and he was proved correct.  The whipless MPs became an informal grouping, and with safety in numbers became emboldened to vote against the Major government even more often.  They were eventually readmitted without providing any guarantees about their future conduct.   That was merely embarrassing for the Tories, but it won't even be regarded as a credible option now if the reason for an MP's suspension is suspected wrongdoing of a serious nature (unless the individual is completely cleared).

13 comments:

  1. if this current sexual harassment thing turns more serious (the press are all over it again today) and Westminster tories are forced or choose to step down, triggering a spate of by-elections that may result in tories losing such by-elections, then how many loses would it take to change the arithmetic and cause the tories (DUP) to lose their coalition and possibly trigger a vote for an early general election? all this amid Brexit negotiations...

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  2. While I agree with what you write, Mr Kelly, it should be remembered that Mr Major's government actually ran its full term. It is not just the Tories who see the holding of power and influence as the first priority. There are those within Labour and the LibDems who see the maintenance of the status quo - with a few cosmetic changes - as essential.

    As they did with the expenses scandal, the media are ensuring that the 'smearing' is being done of BOTH largest parties. It is also becoming undiscriminating in that minor infractions are bundled in with infamous conduct. This obfuscation is to prevent identifying key things on which action can be taken.

    If there is a chance of Westminster coming under 'threat' then, from the Labour benches there will emerge Browns and Darlings (who shovelled shedloads of our cash to the financial jackals) who will sustain the power of the establishment.

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  3. All to keep peoples mind from brexit.

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    1. Silly Billy childish person put your toys in the cupboard and go tae bed.

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  4. There is always a bribe that most unionists be they Tory/Lab/Lib go weak at the knees at - honours. The lure of ermine has snuffed our many a ‘rebel’.

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  5. Groping and nookie seems popular with the masses according to the media.. Seems none of the parties has any so called moral high ground on this subject and yet the public swallow this crap! Excuse the pun.

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    1. JTRIG agent provocateur

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    2. We know you use pink toilet paper. That is how close we are.

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  6. Dinosaur found on Skye, David Francis reported missing from home.

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  7. Breaking -

    "Turd found floating in the Clyde.

    DNA analysis confirms GWC2 marker."


    Ends.

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    Replies
    1. It must be the Nat si impersonators turd. I have a colostomy tango recycling bag.

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    2. JTRIG JTRIG agent provocateur

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    3. My bag is filling up and my carer has not turned up tae empty it. Can you help anon?

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