Monday, October 9, 2017

New Scottish poll is "unmitigated disaster" for Ruth Davidson as Tories slip seventeen points behind SNP on WESTMINSTER voting intentions

It's a hat-trick, folks - and in more ways than one.  YouGov's new poll is the third full-scale Scottish poll since the general election, and all three have shown that the SNP's support in Westminster voting intentions has gone back up - a genuinely astonishing consensus that defies all of the expectations during the summer, and indeed the propaganda that was being pumped out by commentators as recently as yesterday.

Scottish voting intentions for next Westminster general election (YouGov) :

SNP 40% (+3)
Labour 30% (+3)
Conservatives 23% (-6)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-2)

(This is YouGov's first Scottish voting intention poll since the general election, so percentage changes are measured from the actual election result.)

The equally remarkable thing that the three polls have in common with each other is that the anti-independence media outlet that commissioned them buried all mention of the Westminster results - presumably because they'd rather people didn't know the SNP are doing so well.  The Daily Mail didn't report Survation's Westminster numbers at all, the Sunday Times held back Panelbase's Westminster results for a week and then made only passing reference to them, and although I don't pay the Murdoch Levy, I get the distinct impression from those who do that the Times didn't say anything about YouGov's Westminster results in their coverage of the new poll on Saturday.  If there was any mention at all, it can't have been very prominent, because the numbers didn't make their way onto social media.  I eventually found them in the datasets published on YouGov's own website today.

On all three occasions, the unionist newspaper in question has preferred to focus all of our attention on the Scottish Parliament voting intention figures instead - which are spinnable as being a mild setback for Nicola Sturgeon, because although the SNP have an enormous lead on that measure as well, it's down a little from the extraordinary high recorded at the Holyrood election in May 2016.

For the avoidance of doubt, there is no innocent explanation for this selective reporting of the polls.  We've only just been through a Westminster general election, and there is a non-trivial chance of another one being held next year.  By contrast, the next Scottish Parliament election is almost four years away.  Of course Westminster voting intentions are the more interesting of the two sets of numbers at present - so why on earth are London-based newspapers behaving as if Holyrood is the only game in town, and as if Westminster is just some trivial detail?  It makes no sense unless they're in the propaganda business, and are determined that a decrease in the SNP's Holyrood lead should be widely known about, but that a deeply inconvenient increase in the SNP's Westminster lead should be kept a total secret.  It's a cynical game, but to some extent it's working - you may have seen Rachael Swindon (a well-known Corbynite on Twitter) express genuine shock and bewilderment yesterday upon being told that all of the Westminster polls since the election have shown the SNP's vote increasing.  She was utterly convinced that all of the polls she had seen had shown the polar opposite.

If I could blow my own trumpet for just a moment, the YouGov poll bears out what I've been saying for months about the likelihood that an aggregate of subsamples will at least be vaguely in line with the results of full-scale Scottish polls.  Unlike other firms, YouGov's subsamples have been consistently showing the Scottish Tories in third place, so it makes perfect sense that YouGov's full-scale poll has parted company with both Panelbase and Survation by showing Labour in a clear second place and the Tories in a dismal third.  Ruth Davidson must be absolutely horrified by these numbers (and on this occasion that's not hyperbole).  It's even more startling when you bear in mind that Labour and the Tories are essentially tied in the same poll's Holyrood figures.

The SNP would plainly be well-placed to make several gains from the Tories in any early general election if YouGov are correct.  The poll implies a 4.5% swing from Tory to SNP, which in respect of the 'box office' contests means that Alex Salmond would comfortably take back Gordon if he chooses to stand again, and that Angus Robertson would have a 50/50 chance of taking back Moray.

There's another interesting nugget from the YouGov datasets on the Holyrood numbers - the SSP are on 3% of the list vote.  That's not enough to win them any seats, but it does mean that support for pro-independence parties on the list is significantly higher than we first thought.

26 comments:

  1. The electorate waking up to the fact they made a monumental mistake when they voted for Unionists , no matter what colour !

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    1. You are finished nat sis we are out of the EU and Scotland will never be a groundsheet to be shagged on by the Germans like the Greeks were. You crawling vomit materiel nat sis will never sell out Scotland. Get some personal dignity and swallow a pill.

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    2. Oh dear they're getting upset! The Tory bubble has well and truly burst

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  2. I say, I say, I say! What's the difference between Journo Stephen and Sir Cyril Smith? One's a morbidly obese paedophile, and the other's a liberal politician! Aye phank ewe!
    #Satire

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    1. Coward feart tae use full names.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2

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  3. Were you born 1984, James?

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  4. Wee Knickerless now hinting the Jockos will hiv tae pay merr tax tae pay fur public services...Jockos paying merr tax than the English and nae merr subsidies fae the English taxpayer. Now that is independence.

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    1. Gosh, and you said that in a mock Scottish accent too. Now that's what I call talent.

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  5. Moving on from the puerile nonsense of the previous comments (look up "puerile", guys), what do people think explains this apparent sinking of the Tory vote in Scotland? After all, Ruth Davidson is still being feted in the Brirish media, and although we don't agree with her, she does good(albeit sympathetic) media..?

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    1. Maybe the sinking of tory popularity is due to sturgeons strategic decision to "focus on the day job" for a bit and de-emphasise indy? I know how unpalatable that idea will be to many. Also Davidson can't separate herself from the ongoing trainwreck of this tory government at UK level. However I don't understand why the Tories gained in support in Scotland in the first place, being horrific as they are. My best guess is simple voter fatigue after a decade of snp holyrood government. But it seems to me the nats have got their mojo back now..... I personally would put a lot of that down to sturgeon. People get used to politicians and sometimes they forget just how outstanding she is..... For me, the most strikingly committed and appealing political leader of the last few decades, if I'm being honest

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  6. From electoral calculus
    List of predicted seat changes
    Seat County/Area Predicted Change MP as at 2017
    Angus Tayside NAT gain from CON : Kirstene Hair
    Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Ayrshire and Lanark NAT gain from CON : Bill Grant
    Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Highland NAT gain from LIB : Jamie Stone
    Dunbartonshire East Glasgow area NAT gain from LIB : Jo Swinson
    Edinburgh West Edinburgh area NAT gain from LIB : Christine Jardine
    Gordon Grampian NAT gain from CON : Colin Clark
    Ochil and South Perthshire Central NAT gain from CON : Luke Graham
    Stirling Central NAT gain from CON : Stephen Kerr

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    1. The newspapers were not exactly eager to publish these polling figures. Now if the SNP figures had dropped...

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    2. Scotland Votes gives an even better results, SNP 46, Lab 6, Con 4, Lib 3. Tories retaining Aberdeenshire and the three Borders seats

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    3. Wow, even better. Perhaps the MSM were hoping the SNP would panic at the conference.

      "Don't panic Captain Mainwaring, the MSM don't like it up 'em".

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  7. Knickerless wants to be in power for another ten years! I suppose we will just hiv tae get used tae her Emelda shag me shoes and Tory policies.

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  8. I think now is the time you passed on the address of GWC2 to the police James , quoting the reason as incitement to hate The First Minister of Scotland in particular , and the Scottish people in general , it will be acted upon I assure you .

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    1. John the Baptist speaks for the Jockos. You must obey James.

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    2. Stench of this whipped Tory bag carrier.

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    3. David auld yin geeze a break you old pretend socialist turned Nat si.

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    4. You never give us a break from your ultra-right-wing authoritarian gibberish...

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    5. David auld gin drinker you are the fash not me. You are a splitter and friend of the jock bourgeoisie ruling class...They must have given you a winter power card to buy your loyalty...knickerless and fudds laugh at you.

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    6. Evidence? No? Didn't think so.

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  9. Haud yurr heid cantit, in tak ah bow.

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