Friday, September 15, 2017

Massive boost for Sturgeon as Survation confirm SNP have staggeringly sizeable Scottish Parliament lead

Hot on the heels of Panelbase's first Scottish Parliament poll in an eternity comes the same from Survation.  The findings of the two polls are strikingly similar on the constituency ballot (which is all we got from Panelbase).

Scottish Parliament voting intentions (Survation) :

Constituency ballot -

SNP 42%
Conservatives 26%
Labour 25%
Liberal Democrats 7%

Regional list ballot -

SNP 31%
Labour 25%
Conservatives 21%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Greens 9%
UKIP 3%

Crucially, the SNP's more modest lead on the list isn't caused by any sort of Corbyn surge or Tory breakthrough, but rather by the more long-standing problem of SNP constituency voters drifting off in large numbers to the Greens on the list.  That means, according to the most ubiquitous seat projection models, that the pro-independence parties in combination would be just two or three seats away from retaining their majority.  In other words, despite all the sound and fury of recent months, we're in almost as good a position as we were when Nicola Sturgeon won the May 2016 Holyrood election with a pro-independence majority of 69-60 - and there's no election due for another four years anyway.

Even better news is to be found on the independence question.  Against all the odds, and in defiance of all expectations, there has been a sharp swing back to Yes, with the pro-independence vote now once again exceeding the 45% achieved in the 2014 referendum -

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 46% (+3)
No 54% (-3)

Of course an apparent 3% swing could be an illusion caused by margin of error, but it would still be good news even if that is the case - because it would suggest the 43% Yes vote in the last Survation poll was more likely to be an underestimate than an overestimate.

Survation also asked respondents when they thought the next independence referendum should be.  As with the equivalent question in the Panelbase poll, the various options were worded a bit ambiguously, which makes it harder to get much sense out of the results.  However, a combined total of 34% want a referendum either before Britain leaves the EU or at around the time Britain leaves the EU, which presumably means in the very, very near future.  That figure is basically identical to the 37% who "never" want to see another referendum.  In between the two extremes are a moderate group of around 20% who either want a referendum "a few years after Britain leaves the EU" or "after the 2021 election".  Those two options sound very similar to me, although I suppose theoretically you could argue that "after the 2021 election" could mean any time between 2021 and infinity.  From a common sense point of view, I think it would be fair to say this poll seems to be pointing towards a majority in favour of holding a second indyref in the short or medium term.

In another sign of how dramatically some social attitudes in Scotland have changed over a short period of time, the poll finds respondents are not far away from being evenly split over whether parents should be banned from smacking children.  36% support a ban, with 42% opposed.  That sort of finding would have been unthinkable a few years ago (ie. there would have been overwhelming opposition to a ban).

32 comments:

  1. Holding our own , by the next election I hope is significantly increased , with no dependence on the Greens !

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  2. How does losing more than a quarter of the list vote in a year translate into 'holding your own'?

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    1. Be fair - there's a 14% lead on the constituency vote. FOURTEENEFFINPERCENT, like. That's MAHOOOSIVE. The list is less important which may be why Panelbase didn't factor one in.

      Plus, Indy is above 2014 levels without any campaigning. If Unionists aren't flapping about this, then, well, jeesh. Is that what you're doing here now - flapping? It feels like flapping. Mr McFlappypants.

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    2. Simple. Look where the vote goes on the list vote. NONE of it goes to Unionist parties. The Tory vote % actually goes down while Labour holds steady. Some SNP switch their vote to Independence supporting Greens. THAT is "holding your own" if you support independence.

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    3. What independence? In the EU selling Scotland out.

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    4. I got belted as a kid didn't do me any harm

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    5. It made you into a fascist nutball, so yes, it did do harm.

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  3. The Green vote on the list has only gone up a couple of percent compared to 2016 result, as has the Tory, Labour and LibDem list vote (the latter having almost doubled compared to 2016 result).

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    1. The point I'm making is that the SNP's constituency vote is largely staying on the pro-independence side on the list vote - it isn't drifting off to unionist parties, hence the remarkably healthy seat projections.

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  4. Posts I've seen on Twitter are giving the Tories 21% and Labour 25% on the list.

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    1. You're right, I've corrected it now. Initially I couldn't find the datasets, so I took the figures from Number Cruncher, who is normally reliable, but the different placings on the constituency and the list must have caught him out.

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  5. Id be surprised if the lib dems have held onto 10% on the list considering they had about 5 last year and haven't shown any trend towards growth.

    As for the 'long standing problem of snp constituency voters going to the green'... great. Because their constituency vote share is so high and likely to easily win most constituencies it means the snp list vote is useless in a lot of places i.e. where I am in fife. The snp got 120,000 list votes and not one list msp so it makes total sense to go the greens. And to be honest since it most places Greens won't stand a constituency candidate that might chip away at the snp vote what right have the snp and their supporters to complain. Has partick Harvie not been totally constructive in parliament and pushing the snp to be more left wing?

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    1. Blah blah bloody blah. I have no intention of having that conversation again - I've explained why you're wrong at least seventeen billion times.

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  6. What did the greens get in the constituency result?

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  7. Very encouraging to see the SNP in the 40s in both recent fully Scottish polls and with such a healthy lead over the other two. Also good to see the Stories are faltering.

    However, the 45% in the independence vote is a big bonus and will be a worry for the Ruth given she has thrown everything including the kitchen sink at this. She had better start praying that the Brexit £350m per week really exists and that the Tory Brexit team know what they are doing, otherwise she could really start swimming against the tide.

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  8. That's pretty bad for Labour. They need to be emphatically ahead of the Tories at this point, so that they can afford a bit of a slump if and when Sarwar takes over.

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  9. Ironically, I'd say this DM poll is actually pretty good news considering how it's followed the SNP's most catastrophic summer in recent memory. Even more worth mentioning is the fact that the "NeverIndyRef2" crowd are only 37% of the poll, while those who want another referendum either before or concurrent to Brexit make up a handsome 34%. Those who want one a few years after Brexit or post-2021 Holyrood (which let's face it is most realistic) add up to another 20%, putting those nominally open to a referendum in some form well into the majority at 55%.

    That being said, I'm afraid the Greens aren't the primary benefactor of the SNP's abysmal regional ballot showing. If that were the case, the SNP list vote wouldn't be down 11 with Greens only up 2. There's obviously some churn going on between SCon and SLab here which the SNP is also falling into, but the Lib Dems have a very high showing as well, especially in the otherwise SNP-favouring Highlands/Islands.

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    1. No, that misses the point (and you're not the first on this thread). It's the SNP's constituency vote in this poll that is broadly going to the Greens, and not to the unionist parties. Every time that entirely valid point is made, someone comes along and says "no, the combined SNP/Green is down since last year" which is a totally different comparison.

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  10. Disappointed that you're perpetuating the myth that the constituency figure shows the real relation between SNP and green allegiance and that regional votes for the Greens somehow belong to the SNP. When you spend time canvassing you find out the there are lots of people who vote SNP/Green who would vote Green twice if they thought it would make a difference. So in reality the SNP *gain* some constituency votes from the Greens rather than purely losing regional votes. It's impossible to know the exact figures which apply in each direction under the current voting system.

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    1. That argument would carry rather more weight if parties like the Greens and RISE didn't spend half their time during Holyrood campaigns begging people to vote for their second choice party on some spurious "tactical" basis. The SNP certainly don't do that.

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  11. Strange how you nat sis avoid the issue of selling out Scotland to the EU...Impersonator posts is your answer with braindead comments. However come Brexit you traitors are fooked and in the wilderness...I love your agony and desperation...Nazis no more, Junk er no more, Frogs no more....

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    1. WATP FTP GSTQ no more

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    2. Dear Sir

      Your slimey trail, is heading for the cliff-top.

      *White Cliffs Of Dover - Vera Lynn, in the background*

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    3. Ma grannie, sooks eggs [oh yoan Great Bustard].

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  12. Even Scottish unionists don't entirely button up the back.
    They may consider the SNP not up to managing a "real" country but understand what happens in Scotland when the "executive" simply rubber stamp Westminster's domestic policies.

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  13. What a sight tae behold in George Sq today. Nuremberg Nat si flagwaving and screaming from the stage to rename George Sq into Freedom Sq. Just like the jock nat sis to behave like the Nazis and wipe out history. Keep it chaps. And you compliained about the Unionist celebrating the victory over the fash referendum day + 1. Up yer kilts fash.

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    1. I'll be at the Polo Lounge tonight. If you want to meet me I'm the short fat balding englishman in the nazi uniform

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  14. I wonder why they (the Daily Mail) haven't released Westminster intention.

    It was asked as question 1-4 from the tables.

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  15. China hacks Holyrood and nothing of interest found.

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    1. Hey! Why we hack these guys?? They no power! They no power! Hack London now! Quick! Or get shot for wasting state resources!!

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