Sunday, August 20, 2017

Dark day for Dugdale as Opinium subsample puts SNP first, and Labour third

Right on cue, here's the perfect antidote to the BMG subsample a few days ago that some people lost all sense of perspective over.  Far from having Scottish Labour in the lead, the new Opinium subsample puts Kezia Dugdale's party in a distant third place: SNP 37%, Conservatives 36%, Labour 23%, Liberal Democrats 2%, Greens 1%.

Given that the threat to the SNP since the election seems to be coming much more from Labour than from the Tories, I'd suggest the SNP's razor-thin lead over the Tories in this subsample is less important than their bigger cushion over Labour.  It ought to cool fears that Labour have quietly opened up a significant lead during a second half of summer that has been frustratingly light on polls.  The balance of evidence in the first few weeks after the election suggested that the SNP were probably maintaining a small lead, and it's perfectly possible that's still the case, although obviously we'll need a lot more information before we can say that with any confidence.

There have now been sixteen Scottish subsamples from various firms since the election, and nine of them have put the SNP in front.  A tenth had the SNP ahead of Labour.

Very unusually for a GB-wide poll, Opinium asked about approval/disapproval of Nicola Sturgeon as a leader.  Jockophobia is so rampant south of the border at the moment that the English results are utterly predictable and thankfully not at all relevant, but among the Scottish subsample the position is almost exactly evenly balanced - 43% approve of Sturgeon and 44% disapprove.   If that's a representative finding (admittedly a big 'if' given the small sample size) it would suggest that Sturgeon hasn't suffered a further loss of popularity since election day.

The Britain-wide figures from Opinium paradoxically suggest that Labour have slightly increased their narrow lead over the Tories in spite of the fact that Jeremy Corbyn's advantage over Theresa May in the personal ratings has been significantly eroded.  The latter finding very much supports YouGov's results from the other day.

79 comments:

  1. Am absolutely ragin - pure beelin man! Tories 1 point behind - what is this country thinking???

    Am done with this country. It's full of blue, purple, orange and red Tories. I hate conservatism. I'm leaving this shitehole. I'm going to go to America.

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    1. Great plan. No right wing nutters over there! No sir.

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    2. American conservatives make our conservatives look pretty liberal by comparison. There is even an argument that the British Conservative Party isn't actually conservative but is a centrist, socially liberal and largely pro European party that is only right wing relative to other, more socialist parties.

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    3. American conservatives make our conservatives look pretty liberal by comparison. There is even an argument that the British Conservative Party isn't actually conservative but is a centrist, socially liberal and largely pro European party that is only right wing relative to other, more socialist parties.

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    4. If "there is even an argument" that the Tories are socially liberal, it's a pretty lame one. They voted against gay marriage, for example.

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    5. Yes, their traditional antipathy towards homosexuals isn't particularly in-keeping with liberalism.

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    6. More to the right than others, but it's still a mix. Their Cameron/Davidson wing is somewhat socially liberal, their Redwood/Mogg wing much less so.

      Same as every other major UK party really. Even the Lib Dems and the SNP suffer from anti-gay members.

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    7. Except that SNP parliamentarians actually voted (overwhelmingly) for gay marriage. The Tories and the DUP were the only parties to vote against.

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    8. Same story with Section 28. Even relatively liberal Tories like David Mundell were with the homophobes on that one.

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    9. I recall it was a Conservative-led government that legalised gay marriage in England and Wales, after 13 years of a Labour government not doing so, and that they beat the Scottish Parliament to it. Holyrood played catch up on this - absolutely terrified of being seen to be less progressive than England and the Conservatives.

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    10. Ah yes, Section 28! It's funny to see how embarrassed Tory MPs look today when they're asked how they voted on it. There's quite a list of subjects which have that effect, actually. The minimum wage is another good one.

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    11. Aldo, perhaps you did not notice that Section 28 was repealed by MSPs as part of the Ethical Standards in Public Life Act on 21 June 2000 with a 99 to 17 majority vote with only two abstentions. In England, Section 28 was not taken off the statute books until 18 September 2003. So you might need to rein back on your 'we Scots are such bigots'cringe.

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    12. I'm not saying the Scots are bigots. I'm just saying that, on a major civil rights issue of our time - marriage equality - a Conservative government moved faster than an SNP one. That is to the Tories' credit and the SNP's shame.

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    13. Dear Herr Oberst Tomlin, Tommy Sheridan and Co had a burn in in George Sq off the private referendum letter sent to all Scottish homes by a certain Nat si donator re - Section 28.

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    14. Ah yes, the Stagecoach guy. Soon afterwards one of his employees was caught in America trying to hire a gay escort. "I want a black one", he said over the phone :0)))

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    15. Wait a minute - are you saying the SNP voted to repeal Section 28 in defiance of the views of one of their biggest donors? Surely that's not the way it's supposed to work.

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    16. No, the SNP did well on that occasion. It does happen sometimes, but not so much these days - their indy and brexit fixations pretty much squeeze out everything else.

      We should also remember that it was a Labour/Liberal coalition government that initiated that repeal process, the SNP not being in power at the time.

      The good old days, as I call them.

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    17. Aldo, sorry for my misunderstanding of your point. However, I don't see any shame to Holyrood in comparison to Westminster. The Holyrood Bill passed 4 February 2014 and received Royal Assent on 12 March. The Westminster bill passed in July 2013 (a mere 7 months before the Holyrood bill) and came into force on 13 March 2014 which was approximately simultaneous to the Scottish one. However, for once I think the Tories did a reasonable job of passing equality legislation so I do agree that kudos to Tories for that. I simply don't see that puts some kind of shame on Holyrood.

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    18. The Nat sis dragged their feet on Section 28 waiting too see public opinion.
      Labour in Lanarkshire were a disgrace.

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    19. Speelmonster! strikes again.

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    20. Seek professional help. Immediately.

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  2. James, I averaged out the last 7 subsamples you've talked about and got these results:

    SNP 33.5%
    Labour 31.6%
    Tories 26.2%

    Thought it may be of interest.

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    1. When it comes to the Tories, we really are a separate country. When they wax in England, they wane here, and vice versa.

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    2. Many conservatives in Scotland support parties other than the actual Conservative party. The SNP contains right wingers - although they are currently sidelined in an attempt to win over the council estates of central Scotland. Lib Dems are home to a strand of economic liberalism and the Labour Party has social conservatives.

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  3. It's not just small sample size that means you need to be very careful about these subsamples (and the percentages you quote are based on only 139 voters in Scotland). If you look at Opinium's tables:

    http://opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/VI-15-08-2017.xls

    they tell you how their sample voted in June:

    Con 35% (29)

    Lab 26% (27)

    Lib Dem 3% (7)

    SNP 35% (37)

    ()=actual. So the sample was more Tory (there was actually one more Con voter than SNP) - a very common pattern in Scotland sub-samples in GB polling. Pollsters correct any political imbalance across GB as a whole, but not for any smaller area.

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    1. I've made that point myself umpteen times, but I can't put the same long list of caveats on every single post about a subsample. It just gets tedious.

      In any case, a) the problem ought to mostly even itself out over several subsamples, and b) it shouldn't apply to YouGov subsamples at all.

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  4. A full spread Scotland only poll covering independence, Westminster and Holyrood would be lovely right now. Unfortunately, no one seems prepared to splash the cash. Independence polls in particular seem to have vanished, having been released on average once or twice per month between September 2014 and June of this year.

    Does this paucity of Scottish polling signify that the media believes the issue of independence to be dead?

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    1. No. Next question?

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    2. So why have they stopped spending money on Indy polling?

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    3. Because they spent a lot of cash on polling in the run-up to the election, and because it's currently summer.

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    4. The same was true in the summer of 2015, but I recall far more Indy polls back then.

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    5. Rubbish. We've had one since June 8th, compared to two that were published in the summer of 2015.

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    6. Aldo again right on top with the accuracy :O)

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    7. Yes, indeed. There were twice as many polls in summer 2015.

      Aldo

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  5. But my point is that if the problem is structural, it won't even itself out, no matter how subsamples you look at. If those members of internet panels that live in Scotland are more likely to be Conservative voters than voters in Scotland in general, then there will always be a pro-Tory bias in GB poll subsamples. It won't be corrected by GB-wide weighting or sampling techniques.

    And such bias does seem to exist with a lot of panels, perhaps because they are more likely to be non-Scots-born. As for YouGov, they don't weight their Scotland subsample separately as far as I know. Scotland only polls are different of course and we know they have to make adjustments to stop them being too Tory.

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    1. YouGov made a big announcement a couple of years ago that they were indeed treating their Scottish subsamples separately, and that seems to still be the case.

      Even when pollsters don't weight their Scottish subsamples separately, they must have target figures for SNP recalled vote, which should resolve at least part of the problem of having too many English-born people in the sample.

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    2. Can't find the YouGov announcement and their methodology statement doesn't mention it:

      https://yougov.co.uk/about/panel-methodology/

      though that's clearly out of date. I haven't seen any YouGov weighting tables since the GE, so I can't even guess what they're currently doing.

      Weighting by past vote might help a bit, but it depends how the SNP vote is handled. It may be lumped in with others (PC, Green, maybe UKIIP now) on a GB-wide basis or simply ignored.

      A lot of pollsters still seem to be uncertain what to do after their last electoral disaster (the BMG poll still uses the sort of adjustment that go them in such trouble last time). This is compounded by a lack of polling for them to experiment on and almost certainly a publication bias about what we get to see. So I doubt they are doing much to correct things they don't even claim to be trying to get right.

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    3. In the Autumn of 2014, it was subsamples that indicated the start of the SNP surge. This was confirmed by subsequent full scale polling. Now those subsamples are showing a convergence between SNP and Labour, with the Tories not far behind. History tells us this will probably be confirmed by the next proper poll that comes along.

      All we need is someone with 10 grand who is interested enough in commissioning one.

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    4. Why not take advantage of your expertise on what "history tells us", and place a few wagers on your predictions? Then you could pay for one.

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    5. I don't believe in gambling.

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    6. Sad news indeed for bookkeepers everywhere.

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    7. Ad hominems aside, are you saying that the subsamples will not be proved accurate, as they were 2 years ago? What are you basing that on other than wishful thinking?

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    8. They may prove to be accurate or not. But history tells us that making grand pronouncements about what history tells us, based on a single precedent, is a recipe for looking like a wally.

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    9. I did use the word 'probably'. But its okay to make predictions based on historical precedent - even a single one - if conditions haven't fundamentally changed. There have been no earth shattering changes in the way polling is conducted so it is reasonable to assume, based on current trends, that the next Scottish poll will show Labour and SNP level pegging.

      Aldo

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    10. What were you espousing about polls just before the GE Aldo...100+ Tory majority :+)....

      You're about as accurate as Mystic Meg in the Record.

      Give yir heid peace , keep off the internet and stick to the flute practice.

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    11. Evidence based, RM. Check out the subsamples James has been talking about these last several weeks.

      I've never played the flute RM. If you are making a sectarian reference then you've got the wrong religion. As I've pointed out to you before, I was raised Catholic and am now an atheist.

      Aldo

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    12. Ripping the pick as you are from Larky or Lanarkshire....can;t remember TBH

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    13. Lanarkshire is a very large, very mixed area. We don't all strut around playing the flute - but most of us can read the GERS figures, I am pleased to say.

      Aldo

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    14. That's GERS as in the economic data, not sevco.

      Aldo

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    15. Clearly a left footed bigot fae Coatbrig... pretend socialist no doubt.

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  6. Deleted Anon: If it needs to be spelled out to you, I'm now only indulging trolls and assorted irritants at my own discretion. Waste your own time if it makes you feel any happier, but...

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    1. So my work of comedic genius "wee nippy and the fat fuhrer" is not to be allowed to flourish.

      Cultural vandalism.

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  7. I'm quite interested in knowing what Labour and the Conservatives have actually done to warrant their %s? That isn't as snarky a question as it sounds. I'm trying to weigh up the contributions of the parties, SNP included, to get a feel for why the polls are saying what they're saying.

    On the face of it the SNP should be romping it - baby box feelgood factor + positive bridge news + an absolutely humongous GERS +ve correction - all recent news, and there are more positive stories too. Compare this to the positives of Labour and the Conservatives... I can't actually think of anything positive associated with them. What am I missing?

    If the polling above is accurate, why?

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    1. Tory voters: anti indyref2, pro brexit, right of centre

      Labour voters: anti indyref2, pro-Corbynism

      Those categories make up a sizeable chunk of the population.
      SNP appeals to the centre left, pro indy, pro EU types. While those people make up a hefty chunk of the Scottish electorate, they are not the entire story.

      Aldo

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    2. So voters aren't judging performance, they're predominantly interested in ideology regardless of how well or badly the country's doing?

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    3. The country is torn at the moment between 3 big ideological battles:

      Union vs Independence
      Brexit vs Remain
      Centre-right vs hard left (tories and Corbyn)

      People feel that they have to pick sides in these big battles. As for performance, those who approve of the SNP will see their performance as outstanding whilst those who disapprove will see it as being terrible.

      Aldo

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    4. I was hoping to get a bit of nuance because I don't think it's quite as black and white as that, but ok.

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    5. RM agree with Aldo sensation.....That's twice in a year

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    6. I may have to reconsider my views.

      Aldo

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    7. Like an old married couple :O)

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  8. And Nicky hasn't been firing on all cylinders lately.

    Big Keith can get the message out...

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    1. Also true, the Sturgeon been far too reticent to put her head up and push back.....

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  9. It doesn't matter to me which unionist party is neck and neck with the SNP. The fact that 62% of this country is voting against the party of independence worries me greatly. The SNP need to outgun the two yoon parties by at least 10% . Neck and neck is not going to deliver for us.

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    1. That's not a realistic expectation though. The SNP did extremely well in the immediate post indyref period but no single party can sustain that level of popularity for long. Scotland is a multi party system and people do eventually disperse to support other parties based on their varied life experience and priorities.

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    2. You Irish hard done tae settlers in Scotland will have too outbreed the British Scots old fellow! Up yer kilt.

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    3. Stench of this.

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    4. Seek professional help. Immediately.

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  10. And thats not racist because my boyfriend is from norn iron

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  11. Whit aboot, yoan £15 billion pauchlt eiyull money, anent ah foarnicht. Nuhin oan, biased Radio Scoattlin.

    Wurr £1.7 billion, tae thurr guid.

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    1. Whit a knob ye are mentioning money. The Jock elites and ile companies wid tak the lot.

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  12. Brexidous is the headline in the Jock nat paper. No interest in the Scottish people.

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    1. Slave, tae yoan stane.

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    2. Slave tae yer own glaekkit brain nat si fash bhoy. You fash are oan the decline, moanin and hard done tae stories most of yer life has failed. Ye have have outdone paddy with yer moanin.

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  13. Britain Elects is now forecasting 25 seats for the SNP, if a GE were held tomorrow. Tories take N Perthshire, turning a significant portion of the map blue. Lib Dems take NE Fife. Labour grabs a fair old chunk of the central belt.

    We are literally watching a party in freefall. I'm pretty buggered if I understand fully the reasons for it, to be honest. Kill of the hill in 2015, hurtling towards the ditch at the bottom of the hill in an Aldi trolley in 2017. The SNP have either seriously peed people off or the Scottish electorate has become one of the most volatile in the world. That in itself would be amazing, given our previous form of supporting single parties en masse for 50 years at a time.

    Absolutely amazing!

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