Wednesday, August 16, 2017

BMG subsample turns anxiety into despair for embattled Davidson

After a delay of a few days, the datasets for the new GB-wide BMG poll have finally appeared.  In spite of the Conservatives holding a narrow lead across Britain (unusual in polls since June 8th), we once again see the now-familiar sight of Colonel Davidson's Scottish Tories in third place in the Scottish subsample...

Labour 44%, SNP 27%, Conservatives 18%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Greens 2%

Obviously the sizeable Labour lead is a matter of some concern, but individual subsamples are often wildly unreliable, and it remains the case that the SNP have held the lead in the slight majority of the fifteen subsamples published since the election.  The SNP have been ahead in eight, Labour in six, and the Tories in one.  The SNP have also been ahead of Labour in nine of the fifteen subsamples.

There isn't much doubt that the SNP remained competitive, and probably held the lead, in the immediate aftermath of the election.  The question now is whether that remains the case, or whether Labour's position has quietly strengthened during the second half of summer, which has seen very little polling of any sort.

24 comments:

  1. and the red torys are in the lead again. WATP FTP GSTQ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So if Labour are the Red Tories, and the Cons are the Blue Tories, and the Libs are the Yellow Tories, are you saying that Scotland is 70% Tory?

      No wonder you're depressed.

      Delete
  2. I am very tired of tiny subsamples that don't really prove a thing. Anyone interested in crowdfunding a real Scotland only poll? They don't cost all that much.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Its in the order of £8-10k according to Rev Stu. I tried nagging him about it but he's of the (probably correct) opinion that £10k is better spent on things like the WBB2.

      Delete
    2. £8-10k isn't all that hard to raise, but I concede that may be a valid argument. It just would be rather nice to have a realistic idea of how things stand.

      Delete
    3. 10k to telephone a few people or get them to fill in an online form is...extreme!

      Delete
    4. Dear Anonymous, that isn't how legitimate polling works.

      Delete
  3. Its been a limbo period and I would fully expect Scottish Labour to have coasted along on the the momentum they picked up from Corbyn in the latter stages of the GE campaign. The plus point of SLAB having any kind of lead at this point (if they do and accepting all the caveats about subsamples/sample size), they're years away from a major Scotland-wide election campaign at any level unless UK Tories decide to commit electoral suicide - which they won't. There should be no complacency from the SNP in getting themselves back into fighting condition, and the Corbyn effect will unravel along the way. Any SLAB poll lead at this point in the electoral cycle(s) isn't going to buy them anything at Holyrood or Westminster.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Whooft. Massive lead for Labour.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Silly analysis, bad news for Tories in sub sample, but not reliable bad news for SNP in same sub sample. Sorry, i would be more concerned with the Labour lead than with the Tory slip.
    I dont get the logic of celebrating blue Tory decline whilst the red Tories increase.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Silly reply, you haven't read the blogpost properly. The point I was making is that the SNP have been ahead in the majority of subsamples since the election, so this one is an outlier, whereas as far as the Tories are concerned it's another example of a familiar picture.

      Delete
    2. ...and the Labour figures have been dropping too in the sub samples? No. Thats the point, you training your sights on the wrong target. The Tories will always have their core vote in Scotland, perhaps peaked with their additional'No surrender'support, but Labour's vote fluctuates much more and has potential to damage the Independence movement tomorrow, if an election was called.

      Delete
    3. This is the problem. Supposing Nicola calls a referendum and the Tories launch an election the next day. If they collapsed to a small minority of seats, they would look ridiculous in either pressing ahead with a referendum or in backing down for a second time. Seats gone, credibility gone. They have that power over us.

      Delete
  6. Sad old Scotland, just can't hold onto the ball. Out of the EU, hardest hit by the exit and going with Labour who support Brexit.
    It must be the Aberdeen syndrome.

    ReplyDelete
  7. A massive amount of Labour votes went to the SNP at the 2015 election because they were fed up with Labour doing nothing for Scotland for decades . A lot of these voters are Independence light . In their eyes they see Corbyn with a chance of getting into No10 therefore bringing his kind of socialism, which is their kind of socialism ,back to the UK .All they need now is Dugdale and co. to back Corbyn in word and deed up to the hilt , and they will be back in droves ,regardless that they will be back to broken promises .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If Corbyn actually wins, we've got socialism. He's the most left wing Labour leader since Attlee. Scotland will get what it wants and maybe this time will learn the lesson, finally: socialism doesn't work.

      Delete
  8. I am thoroughly depressed that Scotland has reverted to type in the GE voting intentions. This is bound to have some bearing on the Scottish Election intentions. Been said many times that the SNP need to use their current mandate or lose it.

    Next SE will see the SNP slide further down. So this is now about whether the SNP want to go into a period of managed decline. Or to grasp the Thistle and have one last shot at independence.

    Within the Labour vote maybe up to 25% believe in independence. However voting Labour actually stops independence, which they seem blind to.

    Alas Ecosse' may yet shoot itself in the foot and do further damage than Brexit did. Scotland doesn't have the bottle for independence we are a beaten wife who has been stripped of all dignity and self respect. I fear that this is now the re-beginning of North Britain...no longer my nation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just wait until the brexit catastrophe unfolds. You just wake up one morning and BAM - bare shelves, no wages, cash machines not working! These red Tory Corbynists will soon get back in line!

      Ohhh..I can't bloody wait for the brexit catastrophe!!!

      Delete
  9. I'm absolutely raging at this! Pure beelin man! How can they vote for the red Tories? Has Scotland learned nothing? I guess we'll be stuck with foodbanks and the queen!

    ReplyDelete
  10. We have done what we can guys...the loonies appear to be winning once again. Our consciences are clear. When this country collapses in a heap we can at least say it wasn't our fault. They will whine and moan about everything that they voted for and didn't get. We will just have to listen to their moronic chimes!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Whatever awaits Scotland as a part of Britain has got to be better than being a small part of the German Empire #2 aka the EU. My grandfather fought the Germans. If we're just going to break up this country and hand them bits of it, he may as well not have bothered.

      Delete
  11. This country! There is no country mate. It's a nation state. Your mistake is believing that Britain is your nation.

    Comparing the EU with nazi Germany shows you for what you are. A complete ignoramus and a narrow minded little Englander. Now feck off back to your war room and we will get on with civic society.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I didn't say they were exactly the same. But Europe is run for the benefit of Germany and at the expense of smaller states. The euro crisis demonstrates this well.

      Britain is a nation if people perceive it to be. There is also some formal recognition of this. If asked to state your nationality or your country, you will often find that your only option is UK or British. This is because the rest of Britain and the rest of the world perceives Scotland to be a region or province within the UK.

      Delete
    2. Well said GWC2 stop hiding come out from behind the curtain

      Delete