Friday, July 7, 2017

Tories take a hammering in new YouGov poll

If the Tories imagined their narrow lead in the GB-wide Survation poll a few days ago was some kind of turning-point, they appear to have been mistaken.  We've since had an ICM poll (albeit one with radical methodological changes) putting them two points behind Labour, and tonight brings word of a YouGov poll putting Labour eight points clear - the biggest Tory deficit for many a year.

Of most interest to us, of course, is the Scottish subsample, and the news isn't that great : Labour 36%, SNP 31%, Conservatives 25%, Liberal Democrats 5%, Greens 1%.  This is the third subsample that's put the SNP in second place since the election, but it's the first one of those that I take remotely seriously, because the previous two were absolutely tiny Survation subsamples which you could tell were clearly skewed by looking at the past vote recall of respondents.  As far as I know, YouGov still weight their Scottish results separately, which means they should produce results that are slightly more accurate and stable than other firms' subsamples.  However, even when properly weighted, a subsample has a much greater margin of error than a full-scale poll - I make it roughly 8% in this particular case, which means YouGov's figures are entirely consistent with a small SNP lead.  I still think that's the most likely state of play, because in total we've had six subsamples since the election, with three putting the SNP in the lead, two putting Labour in the lead and only one putting the Tories ahead.  It's also significant that the SNP haven't been in third place in any of the subsamples, whereas both Labour and the Tories have.  However, even if the SNP do still have the advantage, it's plain enough that we're faced with a fairly tight three-way battle for the time being.

'For the time being' are the operative words, because it's entirely predictable that a major political shock like the one we saw last month will radically shift the opinion polls in the immediate aftermath.  Sometimes the change is superficial and temporary (for example the brief Conservative surge during the fuel crisis of 2000 which was completely reversed at astonishing speed), and sometimes it's meaningful and lasting (for example the Tory slump after Black Wednesday in 1992, which they didn't properly recover from for well over a decade).  We'll just have to wait and see which category the current situation falls into.  The irony is that if Labour have hopes of exploiting this apparent moment of relative vulnerability for the SNP and winning back a truckload of central belt seats, their own strength in the opinion polls may end up preventing them from doing so.  The Tories aren't going to willingly call an election unless they think there is a good chance of winning an overall majority, and as I've noted before, there is no realistic prospect of them being forced into an election by a vote of no confidence in the Commons for at least three years (unless Tory MPs defect to other parties).  The more I've thought about the parliamentary arithmetic, the more I've come to the conclusion that it's not totally inconceivable that the new parliament will stagger on for the full five-year term.

The Tories are very lucky that the exit poll was wrong about them only having 314 seats.  The difference between 314 and 318 may not sound all that great, but it could well be enough to swing the balance between a very short parliament and a very long one - which apart from saving the Tories' bacon, could also rescue the SNP from having to defend their own 35 seats for a good number of years.  Ideally Scotland will be an independent country by 2022 (Nicola Sturgeon's recent statement very much leaves that possibility open), but even if it isn't, Labour could be in a completely different place by then.  There are already plenty of signs that the truce between the Corbynites and the "moderates" is starting to break down.

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Stormfront Lite's notorious Deputy Editor is a reliable source of painful prose and unwitting comic genius, and yesterday morning's effort was no exception -

"I know I’m not the only Tory who somehow hopes Ruth Davidson becomes an MP before the next Tory leadership election but I suspect she sees her role for the next few years as ensuring Scottish Nationalism really is killed stone dead and that can only be achieved in Holyrood and not Westminster."

Which suggests that Scottish nationalism hasn't "really" been killed stone dead thus far?  Well, quite.  It's a tad difficult to boast about killing Scottish nationalism when you've only just been beaten by Scottish nationalists in a sixth successive nationwide election.

The roll of shame for Ruth is : the 2012 local elections, the 2014 European elections, the 2015 general election, the 2016 Scottish Parliament election, the 2017 local elections, and the 2017 general election.  Every single one an SNP victory.

13 comments:

  1. It's hard to see how Labour will hold together through another election campaign or indeed even without one. Kez 'n Co hate Corbynism almost as much as they hate the SNP. And the right wing of Labour down south are capable of anything in order to thwart Corbyn or any hint of democratic socialism.

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  2. If the Tories can't win Scotland their next best scenario would be for Labour to win, as Labour didn't win in England and so didn't win the UK.
    Tories hold the UK majority of the time, so they would be back to continue where they left off.
    They will be spending the next few years reducing Holyrood, so their hold on Scotland will increase. They would like too doing deals with Councils directly so these would become more in thrall to the UK government. The Councils will be no match for them. Who holds the purse strings calls the tune.
    People get what they vote for and will take the consequences even if it wasn't what they intended.
    If Scotland goes back to the old dead politics and the EU leaves any door open I'll be watching it all from another country.

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    1. The old "dead" politics appears to be far from dead in Scotland. If that YouGov poll came off the Scottish electoral map would look indistinguishable from England with a mass of blue in the shires and affluent suburbs and a mass of red on in the cities and central belt, and not much else. I think the SNP have blown it. Too obsessed with Indyref2,3,4,5,6,7... while Scotland's public services rot from inaction and poor policy. Voters are motivated by two factors, no Indyref, and parties which have actual domestic policy agendas. The SNP are on the wrong side of both agendas.

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    2. Or rather, not that.

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    3. "Voters are motivated by.....parties which have actual domestic policy agendas" - The Tories in Scotland have no policy agenda whatsoever (I checked their recent election leaflets with a magnifying glass) and in Westminster and Whitehall the only policy is Brexit.

      You cannot be serious when you say that the SNP are on the wrong side of a policy vacuum?

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    4. Aberdonian I think you are coming from a point of view of severe bias,and not really looking at what is happening just what you want to happen.If you have an honest look at what the SNP have done,I wont list them for you,best if you find out for yourself then you'll know its true.The only folk going on about indyref2 was Nae Truth Ruth and Nae Policies Kezia,what policies did either of them have except No to Indyref2 nothing else between them,and add on Indigestion Willie,he never had a clue to start with but got increasingly worse.All of them telling the SNP to get on with the day job,and the SNP did left it up to them to mention indyref2 which they did consistently at every opportunity even when there was no SNP member to argue with.Scottish public services are getting blown by the local councils trying to cause them to fail,like moving school money to pet projects,and less and less money from the pocket money grant from Tory Westminster.Hatred for ones country is a terrible thing and all because you dislike a political party that loves its country,take your orders from London parties and destroy your country that is how I see Labour,Limp-Dem and the Tories who are pulling all the strings,when you wake up and realise what has been happening I hope its not too late,still if you are one of those who believe that Scotland is just a county of England then I suppose to you its fine.I believe Scotland is a country and deserves to control its own borders and finances.

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  3. So people who did support Independence would willing to vote for Labour who don't support Ind so will they will never get Ind and have a Tory government 60% of the time, who will undo whatever the Lab Gov does in the previous Parliament?
    As I say, we get what 'we' vote for even if it want' what 'we' intended.

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  4. It was only a couple months ago that we were told labour had lost for a generation and young people never vote and the labor campaign sucks and corbyn is less popular than shit on your shoes. Just saying....

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  5. Sample was from 167 voters - so this poll should be taken with a huge amount of salt

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    1. As clearly stated in the blogpost, it's a subsample, not a poll. It's probably correctly weighted, but has a margin of error of approximately 8%, meaning in theory that the SNP could be as high as 39% and Labour could be as low as 28%.

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  6. We Brits will leave the EU whatever deal is done. The Nat zis will then have to play all their
    cards for independence and selling Scotland out to the EU.... Looking forward to this...

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    1. Oh dear. The Thing That Should Not Be has escaped again...

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