Wednesday, July 19, 2017

The crumbling of Colonel Calamity : evidence begins to mount that the Scottish Tories have slumped to third place

Just as a slight corrective to the recent string of good polling results for the SNP, there's a new ICM poll which has the SNP a little behind Labour in the Scottish subsample: Labour 35%, SNP 33%, Conservatives 25%, Liberal Democrats 4%, Greens 3%.  However, the potential error in an individual subsample is enormous, so those figures are very easily consistent with the SNP holding a small lead.  That still appears to be where the balance of probabilities lie - there have now been eleven subsamples from various firms since the general election, of which six have put the SNP in the lead.  Perhaps more to the point, the SNP have also been ahead of Labour in seven of the eleven subsamples.

That said, the battle between SNP and Labour seems to be close enough that it's not possible to say with absolute confidence which of the two parties is in front.  The Tories have slipped out of that conversation, and it now looks increasingly likely that they've dropped to third place.  If it gradually becomes an accepted fact that Scottish politics has reverted to a traditional SNP-Labour duel, what on earth will happen to the love affair between Colonel Ruth and the media, both north and south of the border?  I believe the line is "she was the future, once".

23 comments:

  1. Re-affirms what I believe , Tory's have reached their max . What I don't understand is why Labour in Scotland is doing pretty well . The SNP are going to have to up their game and concentrate on voters that think voting SNP at Westminster is a waste of time . I know our voice there is small , but it is better than no voice at all , like Sinn Fein .

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  2. 58% when you add up the two Tory percentages... Tories well ahead...

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    Replies
    1. Troll cannae count. Tory percentages total 64%.

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    2. Ye cannae beat Scottish edjikashun! Troon Beach brings them oot.

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    3. The troll "GWC2" calls scottish people "jocks", made death threats on this blog while posing as a Yes supporter, advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister.

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  3. Voting Labour in Scotland is a pointless pursuit as their whole approach is in mitigating Tory policies and no plans for growth in Scotland.
    The overwhelming majority of Lab MPs are Blairites, not what Labour voters imagine they would get.
    Labour simply want their turn in Westminster regardless of the consequences for constituents.

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  4. Wonder how many votes the pensions announcement could swing in the parts of Scotland that turned blue. Apparently affects 7 million across the UK. Of course it depends on the age profile of current Tory voters in Angus, Dumfries & Galloway, Banff & Buchan &c.
    So what is the best information on such matters for GE 2017. Mr Kelly?

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    Replies
    1. The Nat sis can fund additional spending on pensions. This means the Scottish people pay! Shock horror!!

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    2. "Doon wie popery"

      Why? It makes the bathroom smell lovely!

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    3. Good one , but I doubt
      he will have a clue what you are talking about !

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  5. Looks like a 3 way race to me. With the top 3 parties separated by 10 points and 4 years to go until the next major election, anything can happen.

    Of course, based on these results, Kezia Dugdale would be FM, at the head of a minority Labour government.

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    1. Brexit will have happened and the Nat sis will be the big losers. Hard tae imagine the Dug being FM however my dead auntie could fill the post. Personally I would have a referendum on whether the gravy train Scottish Parliament should be abolished. Far too many politicians ripping aff the taxpayer and they contribute F all.

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    2. I care because they are serving no purpose and taking my tax.

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    3. I'd prefer Holyrood to be abolished as well. But, realistically, that isn't on the cards anytime soon. So the best bet is a unionist government. I'm not particularly bothered whether it's blue, red or orange (orange meaning liberal in this context).

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    4. "Of course, based on these results, Kezia Dugdale would be FM, at the head of a minority Labour government."

      Westminster voting intentions have no bearing on who becomes FM.

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    5. Then heaven help us all !

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  6. I think GWC2 is a very sad individual , but he takes credibility away from this page as he ( or she ) contributes absolutely nothing other than abuse to this site .It must take it's toll on him having to revert from his alter ego every five minutes .Please stop responding to him , like any child he will soon get fed up with a toy that does not work !

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    Replies
    1. Only sad individuals are capable of your drivel...

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    2. The troll "GWC2" calls scottish people "jocks", made death threats on this blog while posing as a Yes supporter, advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister.

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    3. More lying drivel from the fash.

      Delete
    4. The troll "GWC2" calls scottish people "jocks", made death threats on this blog while posing as a Yes supporter, advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister.

      Delete