Monday, July 17, 2017

More good polling news for the SNP - this time from YouGov

YouGov are the only firm I'm aware of that claim to weight the Scottish subsamples of their GB-wide polls separately.  Given the small size of those subsamples, a huge margin of error still applies (something in the region of 8%) but nevertheless it was a cause for some concern when the first YouGov subsample since the election gave Labour a modest lead.  I'm relieved to say that has been reversed in the second post-election poll, which was released today: SNP 36%, Labour 31%, Conservatives 25%, Liberal Democrats 5%, UKIP 1%, BNP 1%.

Those figures are very much in line with the subsamples from the Opinium and Survation polls released on Saturday.  The situation now is that there have been ten Scottish subsamples from various firms since the election, with six putting the SNP ahead, three putting Labour ahead, and one putting the Tories in front.  The information we're going on is admittedly very limited, but it does look as if perhaps Labour have leapfrogged the Tories into second place, but haven't quite managed to overtake the SNP.

Elsewhere in the YouGov poll, there is plenty of other evidence of how Scottish public opinion continues to be radically different from opinion south of the border.  Across Britain, Theresa May has moved back into a small lead over Jeremy Corbyn on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister, but respondents in Scotland prefer Corbyn by a near 2-1 margin.  Across Britain, a narrow plurality feels that the UK is right to leave the European Union, but respondents in Scotland take the opposite view by a whopping margin of 56% to 33%.

18 comments:

  1. I think the Tory's have reached their limit in Scotland , but the one to watch would be Labour .The fact that 70% of SNP support did not bother to vote in the GE is worrying , why was that ? .

    ReplyDelete
  2. It's because it was a Westminster election and we have no power there

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Also quite a few voted in SNP the last election for the first time or had not voted for many years in a Westminster election and sat it out this year as the dull campaign didn't help. Still the SNP share of the vote was still double of what they achieved in 2010.

      Delete
  3. Aren't we lowering our expectations somewhat if this is good news?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The question since the election has been whether the momentum would push one or both of the main unionist parties ahead of the SNP. It looks (touch wood) like that probably hasn't happened, and yes, that's good news.

      Delete
  4. Is it likely that the SNP would do much better in the Scottish Parliament voting intentions? What was the split between this and the UK voting attentions when Labour were still getting in?

    ReplyDelete
  5. I see those results as worrying, to be honest. A product of Labour boosted by Corbyn, but an inability to see the ills of Scottish Labour

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We already knew that Labour had recovered. The question was whether they had overtaken the SNP. I'm not going to be worried by numbers that are as good as could realistically be hoped for in the current circumstances.

      Delete
    2. The polls are still showing the Unionists are steadily increasing their vote ahead of the Jock nat si English hating fascists....There is also a resurgence in Unionism in NI where the Sinn Fein fascist are on the backfoot....The Union is looking good and Brexit once settled will end the fascists causes for decades....I will miss the sad hard done tae stories.

      Delete
    3. Yeah, Sinn Fein are so much on the back foot that they gained three seats last month, taking them to an all-time high of seven.

      Delete
    4. Yeah James and you will be pleased with that and the Scottish soldiers killed by them!

      Delete
    5. How unexpected!!

      Delete
    6. The troll "GWC2" calls scottish people "jocks", made death threats on this blog while posing as a Yes supporter, advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister.

      Delete
  6. How many Scots see Westminster elections as being irrelevant to them and voting as simply who they would like to see in charge of England's affairs?
    Perhaps we should be offered voting rights for other countries as well.
    Corbyn,pre Brexit,is only marginally important to Scotland but if the Torags have their way and dismantle devolution,may become more so in future.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Poor moaner just accept devolution and the EU are gravy trains for the idle and weak minded fools like yourself who need someone to guide them.




      y will end and the con merchants will have to work for a living.

      Delete
    2. The troll "GWC2" calls scottish people "jocks", made death threats on this blog while posing as a Yes supporter, advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister.

      Delete
    3. There was a soldier, a Scottish soldier, who wandered far away .... .

      Delete