Sunday, June 4, 2017

YouGov contradicts Survation by suggesting the SNP lead has increased

The YouGov projection model isn't being updated today because of the tragedy in London, but our regular commenter 'Unknown' pointed out that partial figures for Scotland from yesterday's update were unexpectedly revealed on Twitter a few hours ago.  With changes from the last full-scale YouGov Scottish poll, they are -

SNP 42% (n/c)
Conservatives 26% (-3)
Labour 25% (+6)

That's much more encouraging than the Panelbase or Survation polls, because it basically suggests that the SNP haven't taken a hit from the Labour surge, and that the Tories have, thus leaving the SNP with a bigger lead over the Tories by default.  A 16% lead is the largest than any of the familiar online firms (YouGov, Panelbase, Survation) have produced during this campaign.

As I understand it, the YouGov model is based on seven days of interviews, so the update these figures are taken from will cover the period between last Saturday and Friday.  That means some of the fieldwork is older than Survation's, but some of it took place at the same time.  The biggest drawback is that probably none of it (or hardly any of it) took place after Friday's Question Time special, which if we believe the GB-wide Survation poll may have generated an additional surge for Labour.  It's certainly hard to see how that programme will have done the SNP any good, given that they weren't involved at all.

92 comments:

  1. Doesn't the yougov model assume a very unusually high turnout among voters aged 18-30? If those voters stay true to form and 60% stay at home, yougov predictions will be miles out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not an unusually high turnout, no. Anthony Wells pointed out that the assumed gap between 18-24 and over-65 turnout is less than in the 2015 election, but greater than in the 2010 election.

      Delete
    2. So its the data gathering method then - the internet based method is taking into account the views of young people and a particular kind of older person (more tech savvy, more liberal), disproportionately, with older, conservative minded voters left out to a certain degree.

      What else explains the huge gap between this pollster and others who still show a 12 point lead for the Tories?

      Delete
    3. Aldo, I'm not sure you're up to speed with all this. It's got nothing to do with "the internet based method" - ComRes, who produced the 12-point lead, are an online pollster, just as YouGov are. The most recent telephone poll was actually much closer to YouGov than to ComRes - it showed only a 5 point Tory lead.

      Delete
    4. stormfront is short of a missing link again

      Delete
    5. Hello Mick. Charming as always, I see.

      Fair enough, James, on the issue of data collection. But something is separating these pollsters - and if it's not differences in methodology or how data is interpreted, then the gap is down to random noise. If that is the case, then polls showing Labour and the Tories as being close may be at an extreme end of a wide range of error.

      What are your thoughts on the UK Election Forecast, which still has a central forecast of, approxinately, Tories 365, SNP 45?

      Delete
    6. The SNP seats look about right to me, maybe a little lower.

      Delete
    7. Aldo, could I gently suggest you do some reading before pontificating on a subject you don't know much about. No, you don't get big, sustained differences like that as a result of "random noise" - it's caused by methodological differences between the firms, especially differences on turnout weighting.

      UK Election Forecast were of course wrong last time (as was almost everyone). They've adjusted their methods, but I believe they still differ from the YouGov model in that they're literally trying to make a 'forecast' as opposed to simply reflecting what the result would be based on what people are telling pollsters just now.

      Delete
    8. So there are significant methodological differences then. So who is right and who is wrong? Or do all methodologies have pros and cons associated with them? In that case, isn't it best to rely on an average?

      I'm not pontificating, just asking yourself, the 'expert' here, what we are to make of polls that can't make up their minds whether the lead is 1 point or 12.

      Regarding UK Election Forecast, making predictions based on historical patterns of behavior seems reasonable. The reason they got it wrong last time was inaccurate polling input. Rubbish in equals rubbish out.

      So, the polls were mince last time and are all over the place this time. As a blogger who primarily reports on polls, don't you think the industry is placing you at something of a disadvantage?

      Delete
    9. Not really. I've always seen one of the primary purposes of this blog as being to highlight the very large uncertainties surrounding the information supplied by pollsters, to stop the likes of you from getting away with pretending it shows that something is definitely about to happen, when we actually don't know. For example, you're convinced that someone called "Agnes" is going to lose in Moray. Nobody actually knows whether that is going to happen - the information available is too contradictory, even before you take into account Robertson's personal vote.

      Delete
    10. I tend to go by averages James, linked with what we have experienced in past election cycles, to come up with predictions. Going by that, Angus is most probably looking at a P45 next weekend.

      But he might make himself more likeable if he stuck on a bit of lippy and called himself Agnes. It might save him.

      Delete
    11. However well or badly the YouGov model performs on Thursday, I strongly suspect the "Aldo model" will not be replacing it any time soon.

      Delete
    12. But their credibility may take a dip, allowing other polling companies to steal their business.

      Delete
    13. But not yours.

      Delete
    14. Maybe Aldo thinks he is still posting on that Historywomans blog along with the rest of the far right halfwits?

      Delete
    15. I'm sensing a note of concern among certain Scots Tories that they could be overtaken by Labour in the popular vote. They almost were in the locals. Wouldn't be a good look.

      Delete
    16. To be fair, they were 5% ahead of Labour in the locals, even though it was very close in terms of seats. But things certainly seem to have moved on since then.

      Delete
    17. I was, of course, referring to the UK Election Forecast.

      I do not conduct my own polls and analysis James, but I am flattered that you consider me to be so resourceful. Thank you!

      Delete
    18. No, you don't conduct your own polls. Indeed, you are pretty clueless about the whole subject, as this conversation has revealed. That doesn't, however, stop you from making your own attempt at 'analysis' and 'predictions'. Thank you for your belated acknowledgement that you should leave that sort of thing to those who have more resources. Self-awareness from you is rare, but nonetheless welcome!

      Delete
    19. Polling is a complex business, admittedly. Thats why I go with generally accepted ideas (a polling average is better than a single poll), and the verdicts of learned academics on the subject, such as those at UK Election Forecast. At no point did I make myself out to be an expert. You do, however, and have attacked a contributor to your blog for stating facts and asking questions. What a prince.

      Delete
    20. Hot take: Attacks by British extremists are happening because of too many Polish plumbers.

      Delete
    21. Sorry, what "facts" have you stated? I can assure you that if I'd spotted any facts in your comments, I would have dropped everything and congratulated you instantly.

      I don't doubt for a moment that the people behind Election Forecast know their stuff - the snag is that you don't appear to have understood a word of what they've said. And as for a polling average being possibly superior to a single poll - REALLY? Have you got any more statements of the bleedin' obvious you'd care to share with us?

      Delete
  2. One point to note about the Scottish Survation poll is that they (strangely) have included 16 and 17 year olds.

    I don't think this would have much effect on the SNP share, because their support is fairly consistent across the three age ranges given (16-34, 35-54 and 55+). Where it would have a small effect is that Labour's support is about 10% higher amongst 16-34 year olds than the general population, and the Tories is about 10% lower.

    Assuming that the 16 and 17 year olds are similar to the rest of the 16-34 age group, this would inflate the Labour share by about 0.3% (10% share x approx 3% of the voting population) and depress the Tory share by the same. As it happens, the Tories were rounded up to 27 and Labour rounded down to 25 in Survation's actual totals, so making this rough adjustment would only move these numbers closer to the rounded headline numbers.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Regarding the YouGov model, they have been fairly careful to emphasise that the implied vote shares are "not a poll". But as it happens the figures given in the GB model have very closely matched the last two YouGov GB polls (approx Tory 42, Lab 38).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well there you go. Not a poll. Nothing to see here.

      Delete
    2. Oh, for the love of God, don't be so daft. It's based on more interviews than a regular poll.

      Delete
    3. Email yougov and tell them to not be daft then. It's their decision.

      Delete
    4. I have no idea what that's supposed to mean, and I suspect neither do you.

      Delete
    5. They say it shouldn't be regarded as a poll i.e. disregard it - or at the very least do not give it the same weighting as actual polls.

      Delete
    6. My understanding is that yougov are hoping they'll get closer to accurately forecasting the result by producing this estimate. As ever we'll have to wait and see. Obviously a lot will depend on turnout among the young. With any luck they'll turn out in droves to vote for J-Corb and N-Sturg, preventing a large chunk of older voters from shafting their futures

      Delete
    7. Disregard it because it doesnt fit with your belief system Aldo.

      A closed belief system incapable of assessing new things.

      Delete
    8. No, Aldo. They didn't say "do not give it the same weighting as actual polls". They didn't say "disregard it". All of that is a figment of your wildly over-active imagination.

      Delete
    9. Such anxiety! Don't worry, Aldo, it's still likely you'll get a slim majority in the UK and be runner-up in Scotland. Those stellar achievements are only in slight jeopardy.

      Delete
    10. But they did say "it isn't a poll". A sensible reading of that - indeed, the only possible reading - is that you should not treat it as a poll.

      God, you guys really are twisting in the wind...

      Delete
    11. As you put that in quotation marks, I presume you have a link to this killer quote from YouGov on which you are basing your entire argument?

      Delete
    12. You'll have to tackle the originator of this sub thread on that one.

      Delete
  4. Latest Scottish independence poll;

    No 50%
    Yes 42%

    UH OH!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I agree - it must be deeply worrying for you guys that the Yes vote is proving so stubbornly stable. Why can't you get support for independence to fall? It just refuses to happen, month after month after month.

      Delete
    2. Away back to the mad Historywomans blog Aldo. Your extreme views probably seem normal on there?

      Delete
    3. Shirley that is 45.6% Yes to 54.4% No.

      Not a big movement to Yes from 2014 but with regards the vote on Thursday it would suggest that the mid 40s is possible for the SNP and the Yougov projection above might not be far short of the mark.

      James is right though the positions haven't moved despite Ruth, Willie and Kezia talking about little else (perhaps even a little because they do talk about little else).

      Delete
    4. James is right though the positions haven't moved despite Ruth, Willie and Kezia talking about little else (perhaps even a little because they do talk about little else).

      In fairness to them, I think their aim in doing so is less about changing the minds of independence supporters and more about stopping Unionists voting for the other two.

      Delete
    5. In Ruth's case I think it is to avoid talking about Atos/DWP, the Rape Clause, Dementia Tax, Brexit and all the rest of the Tory car crash plank of policies that are all but unsellable. Kezia certainly wants to reclaim ground from Ruth. Rennie? God only knows.

      Delete
    6. Perhaps stable but you are not winning. You should be miles ahead according to you fash. Whits wrang James? How do you fash convince the Unionist democrats?

      Delete
    7. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
      Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
    8. I have the original LP. So do stop your childish indulgence . Idiots like you are a bonus for us Unionists. Now take your LSD and jump.

      Delete
    9. It's a terrible result for Scottish independence supporters. After a decade of sep government, 6 years of neverendum, a failed referendum, brexit, tories, austerity....you can still only get 42% of the population pledging support. That's a disaster.

      It's not so much "tick tock" anymore as "this clock isnae working, the battery's gubbed".

      Delete
    10. Effie Deans' blog is a civilised and intelligent blog juteman, which you evidently read. What we have here is spamming, insults, sterile discussions about polls and, latterly, censorship. I just drop in now and again to see what the enemy is thinking. Not much, it would appear.

      Delete
    11. I think it's time to dismiss "Effie Deans" as pretty much a full-on blood-and-soil actual Nazi and move on. Not funny any more.

      Delete
    12. Colostomybag VanceJune 4, 2017 at 11:21 PM

      Not sure saying "enough is enough" works when you've been Home Secretary/PM for 7 years. Sounds like she wasn't taking it seriously before

      Delete
    13. Tory MP tells hustings: “I’m really pleased we have foodbanks” then threatens to call police on angry disabled voter

      Delete
    14. Theresa May's National FrontJune 4, 2017 at 11:24 PM

      Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe

      CEO, @brexitanalytics Former Tory National and International Security Policy Adviser. Columnist for ConservativeHome @conhome

      Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe Feb 26

      I was in 2005 Tory campaign - we worked assiduously to ramp up anti immigrant feeling.

      Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe Feb 26

      And from Brown on nobody challenged lies that immigrants took jobs, were here on benefits etc.

      Delete
    15. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 4, 2017 at 11:29 PM

      Mr Eton Oldboys MP‏ @EtonOldBoys 11 hours ago

      #LondonBridge Trident didn't help anyone on London Bridge last night, 22,000 sacked Police might have helped and 1,300 firearms police

      Delete
    16. May is hamstrung by politically correct laws and, for the moment, Europe, which upholds and enforces said laws. The Tory party has spent 5 years in coalition with the lib (limp!) dems followed by 2 years of a razor thin majority. It's not necessarily May's fault that terrorism has been allowed to run so viciously out of control. Political correctness is a disease that infects our whole society, even the Tory party!

      It's frightening to think of a society that can't / wont defend itself and a leader whose authority is limited to mouthing the occasional platitude while the population get slain regularly, in small groups, for daring to venture beyond their front doors.

      Delete
    17. I think it's time to dismiss "Effie Deans" as pretty much a full-on blood-and-soil actual Nazi and move on. Not funny any more.

      Delete
    18. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 4, 2017 at 11:42 PM

      aʟi ✁-----‏ @The45Storm 11 hours ago

      RT the hell out of this‼

      @AmberRuddHR shuts down speech by @nw_nicholas at #hustings for talking about UK arms sales to #Saudi
      #GE2017


      Francesca Martinez‏ @chessmartinez 10 hours ago

      When Theresa May says 'Enough is enough', does that include her £3.5bn arms deal to the Saudi's who are thought to be funding ISIS?
      Hope so.

      Delete
    19. "May is hamstrung by politically correct laws and, for the moment, Europe, which upholds and enforces said laws."

      Weren't you a bit silly to vote Remain, then? Good job you lost.

      Delete
    20. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 4, 2017 at 11:43 PM

      Daniel France,‏ @daniboy104 Jun 2

      Paul Mason: "We know where the magic money tree is. It's in the Bahamas where Amber Rudd has 2 accounts" #bbcdp

      Delete
    21. Daily Mail Snowflakes For Enoch PowellJune 4, 2017 at 11:47 PM

      The DM Reporter‏ @DMReporter 13 hours ago

      Dear terrorists

      Need a little help spreading fear once you’ve been shot dead by security services? Let us help.

      Sincerely,

      The UK Press

      Delete
    22. I voted brexit. I was going to vote remain but physically could not do it. It amounted to treason, in my mind. I wasn't for abstaining either - that's just a cop out. So brexit it was, for better or worse.

      Delete
    23. Lord Rothermere's porn dungeonJune 4, 2017 at 11:58 PM

      Only GWC2 had a couple of utterly demented posts deleted and why would you care unless you are also posting as GWC2

      Delete
    24. The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign

      Delete
    25. "We'll win next week, just you wait and see, hahaha!"

      - every yesser in Scotland, 13th September 2014.

      Delete
    26. I think it's time to dismiss "Effie Deans" as pretty much a full-on blood-and-soil actual Nazi and move on. Not funny any more.

      Delete
    27. I called Angus Robertson Agnes and had a post removed. I think James is trying to clean up the blog for the duration of the election. He wants visitors to think that the Scottish Indy debate is highbrow stuff, rather than the monkeys chucking excrement, hate filled, partisan, sectarian rammy that it has descended to due to continuing for far too long. Understandable, I suppose, but ultimately futile.

      Delete
    28. The far-right infantilism of Effie Deans and Batshit JillJune 5, 2017 at 1:13 AM

      Her every word is lapped up by the racist and sectarian bigots that she knows follow her. Well aware of her audience.

      Delete
    29. Everyone: Could I ask a fairly poignant question here - Why are you indulging Aldo and GWC2? They're trolling the shit outta ya

      Delete
    30. The angry halfwit finally bit at the Beatles. Back to the Stooges, methinks.

      Delete
  5. James - what is your view on the Ashcroft forecasts for Scottish constituencies on Friday?

    ReplyDelete
  6. kipper tories are the stupid party - Cowardly, Incompetent and CorruptJune 4, 2017 at 8:46 PM

    BorisJohnson

    Very very very clear - Corbyn will never protect us against our enemies.


    Elis James‏ @elisjames 20h

    Elis James Retweeted Boris Johnson

    We've had two attacks in a fortnight on your watch, you fucking whopper

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign






      .

      Delete
  7. As an ex Labour voter, I do like Corbyn, concur with a fair chunk of his political doctorine but by god I despise his party, especially in Scotland. I will be voting SNP and my ideal result is a minority Labour govt propped up by the SNP. Guaranteed to weed out all the Blairite drones in Scotland like Dugdale who would genuinely rather work with the Torys than the SNP. I view Davison and Dugdale as virtual clones,one however much I despise her political views is consistent and reasonably articulate, the other has a different opinion for each day of the week and displays below average intelligence and social awareness for someone in her position.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dugdale has a choice of working with the Joke Nat si Tories or the real Tories! Well she has to work with the honest Tories....!

      Delete
    2. The poster above is a scotland hating tory yoonJune 4, 2017 at 11:16 PM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  8. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 4, 2017 at 11:28 PM

    Matt Turner‏Verified account @MattTurner4L 10 hours ago

    Police have called out Theresa May for her lies on police funding. The reality is that our emergency services are being cut to the bone.

    ReplyDelete
  9. PB Stormfront - Your one-stop shop for mug punters and Enoch Powell RacismJune 4, 2017 at 11:32 PM

    Mark Slattery‏ @NorthernSlatt 3h

    WTF is this shit? A 'pro bono' letter from a pundit claiming no political affiliation telling me how to 'stop the SNP'? Fuck right off.


    pic.twitter.com/wnDqx1FZkx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So will the cost of this letter be seen as part of Jo Swinsons election expenses? If not it should be

      Maybe something for the @ElectoralCommUK

      Delete
    2. just another old anti-scottish bigot stuck in the bubbleJune 4, 2017 at 11:53 PM

      Rainman‏ @Vision245 6m

      Replying to @NorthernSlatt

      Will be avoiding @MSmithsonPB and his website from now on

      Delete
    3. How to stop the SNP? Just leave something at their front door. Scones for Salmond and Agnes. A pretty girl for Hosie. Selfie seekers for Nicola....

      I've just seen an advert for the Scotland vs England match on Saturday. I'll need to dig out my England shirt and my Three Lions single from 1996.

      Delete
    4. Annnnnd 'Aldo's' off the tablets again.

      Delete
    5. The tory troll 'Aldo' calls scottish people "morbidly obese, dangerously unfit and nicotine stained." Described opponents of the Tory Rape Clause as "spaz" "chav" "loser" and "autistic". Spouts vile abuse about mental heath involving the mothers of scottish posters on here and generally behaves like a tory ned.

      Delete
    6. The sep troll 'Mick Pork / various' has no life. He exists purely to hurl insults at people. He had a purpose at one time, but the 'yoons' took it away from him, stamped on it, and laughed. He now lives in a perpetual fit of impotent rage, determined to exact revenge on the yoons. Some call him.......Mad Mick, the blog worrier....

      Delete
    7. The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign

      Delete
    8. "Scotland has voted no to the question 'should Scotland be an independent country?'"

      - National returning officer for Scotland, September 19th 2014.

      Still hurts, doesn't it?

      Delete
    9. If Scotland is a country it is a country without many of the crucial attributes of nationhood. No independent armed forces, no foreign policy, no borders, no central government. Please tell me, what is our national anthem? The official one?

      I would venture to say that the United Kingdom has more of the classical attributes of nationhood that Scotland does. It therefore has a greater claim to the descriptor of 'country' than any of its constituent parts, which are now but glorified regions, at best.

      - 'Aldo'

      Delete
    10. David Halliday‏ @DavidJFHalliday

      Best description I can come up with is "far-right infantilism": "safe and secure in our UK homeland"

      http://effiedeans.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/we-are-all-tories-now.html …

      Delete
  10. Colostomybag VanceJune 5, 2017 at 12:04 AM

    Scottieboy‏ @merseytart 15 hours ago

    Woman on CNN talking about London's streets being eerily quiet. Mate, it's Sunday. They're not cowering in fear, they're having a lie in.

    ReplyDelete
  11. GAPonsonby‏ @GAPonsonby 5h

    Ruth and Lies

    http://indyref2.scot/ruth-and-lies

    ReplyDelete
  12. If Scotland is a country it is a country without many of the crucial attributes of nationhood. No independent armed forces, no foreign policy, no borders, no central government. Please tell me, what is our national anthem? The official one?

    I would venture to say that the United Kingdom has more of the classical attributes of nationhood that Scotland does. It therefore has a greater claim to the descriptor of 'country' than any of its constituent parts, which are now but glorified regions, at best.

    - 'Aldo'

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Absolutely true. Which part of it do you challenge?

      A bit creepy that you are now stalking me however. I really have pissed you off...

      Delete
    2. Britain First Fruitcakes for RemainJune 5, 2017 at 1:07 AM

      oh crumbs‏ @crumbs_oh

      Effie believes she's a 'British soldier' Her weapon is Agent Provocateur! I won't bite!

      Delete
  13. Three lions on the shirt!

    Jules Rimet still gleaming!

    Thirty years of hurt!

    Never stopped us dreaming!

    Will you be tuning in on Saturday Mick, for the big match?

    Lol - I've exacerbated your 'difficulties' enough, I think. Time for bed. Sound minds get sound sleep!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Britain First Fruitcakes for RemainJune 5, 2017 at 1:08 AM

      I think it's time to dismiss "Effie Deans" as pretty much a full-on blood-and-soil actual Nazi and move on. Not funny any more.

      Delete