Sunday, June 18, 2017

Survation poll gives the lie to the notion that people are "scunnered" with referendums

Anyone who buys into the theory that people have just had enough of voting (and of referendums in particular) ought to take heed of the recent GB-wide YouGov poll showing a narrow majority in favour of a second general election as early as this autumn, and also tonight's UK-wide Survation poll showing a similar majority in favour of a referendum on the final Brexit deal.

On holding a referendum to accept or reject Brexit deal (Survation) :

Support 48%
Oppose 43%

The poll's Scottish subsample is tiny - but for what it's worth, it shows a somewhat bigger majority of 43% to 33% in favour of a referendum.  As the entire rationale of Indyref 2 is to give people the choice between Hard Brexit (assuming that's still what we're heading towards) and the only viable alternative, it would seem from these numbers that there are reasonable grounds for optimism that people will be receptive to the arguments in favour of holding a vote, if they are presented in a thoughtful way.

There's mixed news for Remainers in the other questions in the poll - the centre of gravity of public opinion appears to be support for remaining within the customs union from outside the EU.  Single market membership seemingly wasn't asked about, and that's arguably the more important aspect of the Soft/Hard Brexit divide.  (Norway is inside the single market but outside the customs union - and the reverse is true of Turkey, which speaks volumes.)  Extraordinarily, in spite of her catastrophic loss of general support, a narrow majority of respondents would still trust Theresa May's judgement if she decided that no deal was better than the deal on offer - although unsurprisingly respondents in Scotland take the opposite view by an overwhelming margin.

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I noticed a comment on Wings earlier today saying there had been a poll showing that the SNP would gain seats in an early general election.  I did a search and drew a complete blank, so I assumed it was probably just some sort of 'voodoo poll'.  But oddly enough, when I checked Survation's Twitter feed tonight, there was indeed a projection that the SNP would win 41 seats in a new general election (a gain of 6), and it was supposedly based in part on the notorious poll commissioned by the Record the other day.  That's peculiar, because as far as I can see there were no voting intention figures in the Record's reporting, and there are none in the published datasets either.  Could there have been voting intention results which have been withheld by the Record?  If so, did they do it because they didn't want anything to contradict the "disaster for SNP" narrative?  

I must stress this is just wild speculation.  But if by any chance there has been an unpublished Survation poll of Scottish voting intentions showing the SNP making ground rather than losing ground, that would be very significant.  The results would have been weighted back to 2017 recalled voting, which means they ought to be more accurate than the pre-election polling was.  I've been quite concerned that any new poll might actually show the SNP slipping behind Labour - that seems an odd thing to say given that Labour finished third only ten days ago, but shock election results can generate momentum like nothing else can.

50 comments:

  1. Admittedly lately I've been wrong more often than right, but it is hard to see how there won't be an early election whether from a vote of no confidence or some other mechanism. This situation gets worse by the day.

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    1. It certainly won't happen as a result of a vote of no confidence - the arithmetic makes that essentially impossible. But it might happen for another reason.

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    2. Just going by her character I'd say that she won't resign. She's got the Maggies about her. What I found strange was the effect of that group chat they had after the election. It was like she'd tricked them into a room and zapped 'em, using technology beyond our understanding. Here comes Mayhem in Black. So she won't resign, and they want her to stay anyway. No one wants the Brexit ball. We've got her for the long haul folks.

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    3. James, you are assuming the DUP will be joyously happy about everything the Tories do. Every spat they have will likely, and damn well should, trigger a confidence vote.

      When a majority is as razor thin as this one it is an apposition's job to keep the pressure on. Just like Indy, they only have to get lucky once.

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    4. You've got a fair point there, muscleguysblog. But the Tories have a natural aversion to laundrettes (especially when their power is weak) and the DUP are ayatolla-level when it comes to the Union and realise the threat it's under right now. Between them they'll come together in adversity and attrition. They'll put their differences aside and they'll take their respective hits for the union team. Union + EU + sticking it to the mad bastards on the other side (cos that's how they see them, Sinn Fein and Labour alike, the SNP too) - their causes have aligned on a cosmic scale. They won't let it slip away through squabbling.

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    5. Tories don't want to face the electorate again. DUP don't want to lose influence. I don't see an election happening anytime soon. By 2022 Prime Minister David Davis should be well settled in, with brexit done and dusted and Corbyn having lost some of his shine. That's when the next election will be.

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    6. Good luck with that one. With a string of by-election defeats, the Tories could be outnumbered by the progressive parties by 2020 or 2021.

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    7. The majority is in double figures, with Sinn Fein and the Speaker taken out. You'd need quite a few dead Tories.

      And who actually believes that the Corbynite agenda will be backed by the Lib Dems? SNP will do whatever they think is politically expedient. Lib Dems actually believe in something - liberalism. That means no to mass nationalisation and the big state, especially now that Farron is gone.

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    8. On your first point : Not at all. Seven by-elections over a period of three or four years is scarcely unusual. Arguably six would be enough to make the arithmetic unworkable.

      And I'm afraid you're missing the point about the Lib Dems entirely - they don't need to back Corbyn as PM to force a general election. So that piece of wishful thinking doesn't work.

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    9. So you need six people dying or resigning and then to be replaced with lefties in the ensuing by-elections, with no losses going the other way. Seems a tall order. The mere fact you are wishing for such stuff just goes to show the weakness of your own position - the left lost the election and is now praying for unlikely events to fall in their favour. Meanwhile, the Tories govern.

      Will the Libs force an election where the outcome is a likely socialist victory? They are centrists. For the moment, they are closer politically to the Tories.

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  2. SNP need to stop banging on about the virtues of having a vote. Votes are a means to an end, like going to the dentist or getting on a plane. Some people do enjoy these things, but most don't. It's the final outcome that matters. If people think the (potential) outcome is worth it, then they will support having a vote.

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    1. I can't agree there Unknown.
      Whither folk want a vote or not is irrelevant, if a decision has to be made it has to be made. Whither folk want to make it or not. Brexit is happening. Scots voted to stay in the UK AND stay in the EU. We can't have both, so a decision has to be made. If we don't, a decision is made by England by default.

      Also, on the issue of Independence and the political/msm environment that the Scots electorate continue to have to operate under means that the ONLY time that a proper case for Independence is ever heard is DURING a ScotRef campaign itself.

      This is why the Unionists and their supporting MSM are so desperate to avoid ever holding that democratic campaign. Even to the point of risking making obvious the undemocratic underpinnings of their 'British first' beliefs.

      No, we NEED a referendum campaign to get the unanswerable case for self governance heard over the constant msm and unionist drone. We need it fast, before the obvious lies, threats and hypocricies deployed to win the NO during IndyRef1 lose all their potency.

      braco

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  3. re: the Survation seat calculation, the Scottish part of it just based on their final poll BEFORE the election, which put the SNP on 39%. They then combined this with their GB post-election poll (which put Labour 6% ahead in GB) to calculate seats for GB.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/875662347880288257

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/875698876082253824

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    1. No, that's incorrect. The link in the second tweet is to the post-election poll commissioned by the Record, not to the final pre-election poll. What you're suggesting would make no logical sense anyway.

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    2. Playing with electoral calculus, it appears you do get the SNP at 41 seats and 3.3% nationally by putting them at 39.0%, with Cons at 26.2% and Lab at 28.9%. So either Survation did poll for the Record and it shows remarkably little change from their previous, or they are indeed using their pre-election poll for whatever odd reason.

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  4. Wasn't there a post-election UK-wide poll which put Labour ahead of the Tories? Mightn't the seats calculation be based on that poll?

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    1. If so then it ignores Scottish realities and the unionist tactical voting that went on. If Labour voters are still going to vote Tory to 'Stop the SNP'. Then the UK wide change will not produce the changes they think in Scotland.

      Also more support for Corbyn in Scotland is unlikely to help the cautious SNP.

      The SNP need to get their navel gazing done sharpish and come out with some direction. If nothing else if they are going to come over all feart when they hold a cast iron mandate then we need a different Indy vehicle.

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    2. Survation clearly state that their projection is based on *both* their GB-wide post election poll, and the post-election Scottish poll commissioned by the Record.

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  5. The Scottish towns are cluttered with beggars and foodbanks are on the increase and yet you Nat sis have been in power in Scotland for over a decade and want to waste public money on referendums. Strange priorities for a pretend leftie party.

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    1. We onanists have been running this glorious union for 311 years this is as good as it gets god save the queen your future is orange

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  6. Laaaav, laaaav, laaaav
    Dum DeLaaaav, laaaav, laaaav
    It's easee
    Dummmmm
    Dum dee dum
    Dum dee dum
    All ye need is lav.....

    Everybody!

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    1. Dis yer maw know you are oot.

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    2. Does your therapist?

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  7. The glorious 12th is coming soon its going to be the greatest show of onanists for years come and join us, everyone is welcome except for nat sis kafflicks or europpeans. We are the most inclusive organisation in this wonderful union.We have members of the KKK and BNP. GSTQ WATP LOL

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    1. I do love the grouse shooting on the 12th. Top a few nat sis maybe.

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    2. Death threats now, from the spineless Tory bag carrier.

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    3. Spare the Grouse shoot the fash.
      Brexit talks start today and the fash are haudin back on the referendum. All wind and no action.

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    4. And again, advocating the murder of your opponents. What a tired, sick creature you are.

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  8. New survation poll just out? 44 lab, 41. Tory traitors.

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  9. Just a heads up, Panelbase are now running a UK poll. Pretty normal questions:

    If GE held tomorrow, how would you vote?
    If another EU ref held tomorrow, how would you vote?
    Should the UK gov now seek greater consensus in Brexit negotiations?
    How long should TM remain PM?
    TM, JC good/bad jobs as leader

    They also said that they will now automatically import the answer I gave to how I voted in 2017 - presumably the same as YouGov trying to avoid errors in voter recall.

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  10. Scottish sub-sample Survation/Good Morning Britain
    Fieldwork 16-17 June
    Scottish sample size = 124

    Lab 47%
    SNP 35%
    Con 14%
    LD 3%

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Final-Post-Election-GMB-Tables-160617TOCH-1c0d0h5.pdf

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    1. The good news is that the Scottish subsample also shows Labour ahead of the SNP on how people recall voting earlier this month, so it looks like a skewed sample.

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  11. The polls showing Labour ahead UK sidewall pretty much put on hold any second attempt by May. Indeed skipping next year's Queen's speech suggests she intends to dig in and deliver Brexit. Frankie Boyle' analysis is not far short of the mark.

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    1. How on earth can an autocorrect make wide into sidewall. Is sidewall even a thing?

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    2. Yeah. Side of a tire. As in " your sidewalls on the left side are damaged". But yeah, auto spell sucks!

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  12. Asking people who voluntarily participate in polls if they support the idea of having a vote probably isn't going to produce a result representative of the population.

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    1. The Scottish Tories : the We Hate Voting Party. No wonder.

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    2. It's not voting that people are tiring of. It's the life & death, "my vote will still affect people in 100 years" nature of some of the votes we've been having recently. It's not the physical act of walking into a polling station or posting a ballot - it's the arguing, the falling out with friends, the social media abuse and the thinking about stuff til your head hurts that you didn't give a fig about 10 years ago, as you happily led your quiet life under a moderate government in a united country.

      That is what people want to get back to - voting every five years on mundane issues. The SNP's moment has passed.

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    3. Their landslide election victory is a tad inexplicable, then. Come off it, Aldo - the Scottish Tories are the anti-voting party. It's pretty much their flagship policy.

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    4. The Nat sis just want to keep voting..... Democracy is a dirty word for you fash..... Just as well Unionists are not anti democratic extremists or there would be a chanty of chaos.....Get a life Jock fascists and accept the will of the people....Roger oot.

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    5. 63% of the country are certainly anti voting for the SNP. Some landslide where you lost 21 seats and a third of your vote.

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    6. The English hating fascists now know it is not their time. They have had brexit and now another Tory administration. They are retreating into their own excrement at a fast pace. Their hard core fascist support must be raging.

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    7. What I'm wondering is what happens if they get indyref2 and then lose it? The unionists will block, delay and frustrate that for as long as they can - as is their right - but what if they actually get it and lose? Sturgeon would surely be toast, the cause dead.

      Be careful what you wish for. This is perhaps an area where unionists and nationalists can find common purpose. Unionists don't want a referendum as it risks the UK and disrespects indyref1. Some nationalists don't want a referendum as it is very likely it'll blow the works regarding independence for decades. These two groups should join forces and fight the current SNP leadership until it agrees to shut up about 'indy'.

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    8. Good luck enlisting nationalists for your Tory-led anti-independence crusade, Aldo. I can only admire your optimism.

      If you don't like first-past-the-post, join us in campaigning against it. But don't support a voting system and then whinge because you don't like the result it produces. First-past-the-post is the electoral system, and the SNP won a landslide under it this month. Deal with it.

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    9. The winning line is 326, James. Nobody won a landslide - and certainly not the SNP, on 35.

      Aldo

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    10. Sorry, were you under the impression that the SNP are a UK party?

      The winning line is 30. But thank you for the confirmation that the Tories lost the election.

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  13. The cause of anti English fascists will never be dead....The moaners and blamers with their hard done tae stories aboot historical English sheep stealing and shaggin will always be with us....They hate the English they are racists.

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    1. The troll "GWC2" calls scottish people "jocks", made death threats on this blog while posing as a Yes supporter, advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister.

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    2. Your continuous comment is a diversion from an inadequate person who is clearly an anti English rascist.... Up yer kilt Nat si bhoy.

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    3. The troll "GWC2" calls scottish people "jocks", made death threats on this blog while posing as a Yes supporter, advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister.

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