Sunday, June 4, 2017

SNP lead by 12% in latest Panelbase poll

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Panelbase) : 

SNP 42% (-2)
Conservatives 30% (-3)
Labour 20% (+7)
Liberal Democrats 5% (n/c)
Greens 2% (n/c)
UKIP 1% (-1)

This is now the most up-to-date Scottish poll we have - the fieldwork overlapped with the Ipsos-Mori poll. but it both started and finished several days later.  The results differ significantly from Ipsos-Mori in showing a more modest SNP lead, and in still showing the Tories comfortably in second place despite the Labour recovery.  Because there's no particular reason to suppose that Labour have slipped back since the Ipsos-Mori poll was conducted, it's likely that the differences between the two polls can be largely explained by methodology rather than by real changes in public opinion.  We may therefore face a degree of uncertainty going into polling day over the extent of the threat faced by the SNP from the Tories.  Constituencies like Moray and Perth & North Perthshire would certainly look somewhat less vulnerable if Ipsos-Mori are correct.

Whichever firm is closer to the truth, though, there doesn't appear to be much risk of substantial seat losses to Labour - unless of course the new GB-wide Survation poll is right in suggesting that the Corbyn v May Question Time special produced an additional Labour surge.  The big question for the last few days has been whether the Labour mini-recovery in Scotland was happening at the expense of the SNP or the Tories, and Panelbase seem to be indicating that it's a bit of both - although there's always a chance that the true picture is being masked by margin-of-error effects.

There's another possibility as well.  Panelbase recently changed their methodology for GB-wide polls in a more Tory-friendly direction, and I don't yet know whether they've done the same thing for their Scottish polls.  If by any chance they have, it would probably be good news, because it might indicate that there's been more Tory slippage than appears to be the case at face value.  We'll find out eventually.

Obviously opinion polling is the last thing on people's minds at the moment, but I just thought I'd give you the information briefly for the sake of completeness.  Based on the Manchester precedent, it seems almost inevitable that campaigning will now be suspended again, and that the Question Time edition featuring Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron will be postponed.  If the suspension goes on for a few days, there may even be a slight question mark over whether the election will take place as planned on Thursday (although given the immense legal and practical difficulties associated with a postponement, I would imagine it probably will go ahead).

UPDATE : The full-scale Scottish poll from Survation we were expecting to see last night has belatedly appeared...

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Survation) :

SNP 40% (-3)
Conservatives 27% (-1)
Labour 25% (+8)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-3)

That's sufficiently similar to the trends seen in the Panelbase poll to reduce the chances that Panelbase were flattering the Tories due to methodological changes.  All the same, we have one poll showing the SNP suffering a little more than the Tories from the Labour surge, and another poll showing the opposite, so there's no clear evidence that the SNP's lead over the Tories is going to be lower than it would have been without the Corbyn bandwagon.  Indeed, Survation report a slightly bigger lead than Panelbase do - although the flip side of the coin is that they also give the SNP a significantly smaller advantage over Labour, so there may now be a danger of losing a few seats in that direction.

What we're seeing yet again is the inbuilt disadvantage that the SNP face in a Westminster election - this Labour surge simply wouldn't have been feasible in any other context.  People are getting excited about Corbyn because they're visualising him (implausibly) forming a government, which is an allure that the SNP can't directly compete with.  The huge saving grace is that it's the party in third place that is surging, rather than the party in second place - and in a first-past-the-post election, that should save our bacon unless things get dramatically worse.

51 comments:

  1. Survation / Sunday Post is SNP 40 (-3), Con 27 (-1), Lab 25 (+8), LD 5 (-3). Young people swinging to Lab according to a Curtice article.

    Digital version of the front page is shown here:

    http://subscriber.pagesuite-professional.co.uk/custompages/sundaypost/subscribe.aspx?pbid=0b41e331-487c-4c71-855b-9855be19d0bc&_ga=2.227988062.255228743.1496523545-1493341985.1496523544

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  2. That's not a good poll for us. Only salve is Yooons fighting each other for seats and Tories dropping. How many young people will actually vote?

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  3. What's the yougov constituency polling saying now?

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  4. However ... Labour's turnout is always lower than other parties'. The 25% would give Labour East Renfrewshire, which I can't believe. It's Tory territory: Murphy was an energetic one-off, while McDougall is a sumph. Likely to be a lot of variation across constituencies.

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  5. If you want a Labour Government you vote for a Labour Government and if you want a Tory one you vote for a Tory one. Its as simple as that. This "vote SNP to keep the Tories out" nonsense is just that and even more so in a country which until two years ago sent 40 Labour MPs to Westminster. Its just feasible on Thursday that Labour could win the election in England and Wales but fall short of a majority because of Scotland. That scenario hasn't happened since 1951.

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    1. And what do you think will happen in that scenario? The SNP will do a deal with Labour, getting the best for Scotland. Instead of sending a bunch of untalented labour MPs, who are there just to warm seats.

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    2. As opposed to the untalented bunch of SNP MPs we have now? What have they actually achieved in the last two years other than in many cases to claim vastly more in expenses than the MPs they replaced?

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    3. @aberdonian, the official figures from the house of Commons have shown that the current Scottish MPs have claimed less than the last set per year.

      The talent pool of snp MPs is much, much better.

      Guaranteed if they weren't in place we would never have got any extra devolution. They have voted against all austerity, voted for increases in public spending, voted against privatisation of the NHS, voted against cuts in disability funding etc etc.

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    4. Sunshine on CrieffJune 4, 2017 at 11:41 AM

      No, it is not as simple as that. Labour are nowhere in my seat, it is a straight fight between SNP and the Tories. If I vote Labour I'm helping to elect a Tory government.

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    5. Aberdonian: to describe the SNP MPS in the last WM parliament as untalented is simply ridiculous. When they took their seats, there were several articles in the English media noting the unusual - for a group of MPs - quality and variety of their education, talents and experience.

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    6. Aberdonian: to describe the SNP MPS in the last WM parliament as untalented is simply ridiculous. When they took their seats, there were several articles in the English media noting the unusual - for a group of MPs - quality and variety of their education, talents and experience.

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    7. If you want a Labour Government you vote for a Labour Government and if you want a Tory one you vote for a Tory one. Its as simple as that.

      You don't seem to understand FPTP. You think the best strategy to prevent a Tory government for a voter in, say, Moray, is to vote Labour?

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    8. Firstly, the prospect of a Labour/SNP government scares away English voters from voting Labour.

      Secondly, the experience of a Labour/SNP government would likely render Labour unelectable for a generation.

      So, yes, the best way to ensure that Labour governments remain a viable option is to vote Labour - even in the places where they have no chance.

      The Greens had no chance in Brighton Pavilion 20 years ago. Now its a safe seat for them. The SNP had no chance in most places in Scotland 10 years ago, yet we saw what happened.

      The Tories have no chance in my constituency, yet I'll still vote conservative. Eventually, they may win. Failing that, I've still registered my opinion and my preference as part of the overall popular vote share.

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    9. The SNP MPs may or may not possess talent and experience in some measure to varying degrees. But that talent is stifled in a party where everyone votes as a bloc in line with the wishes of the leadership and rebellion or internal disagreement is not even considered an option.

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    10. @Aberdonian..

      The latest Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA - http://www.theipsa.org.uk/) show SNP MPs are the hardest working MPs at Westminster, cost significantly less and are better value for money than their predecessors from other parties.

      Here are the facts.

      SNP MPs are costing less than their predecessors – by over £1 million.

      Figures published on IPSA’s website confirm that in 2015-16 SNP MPs in fact cost over £1 million (£1,140,801.64) less than their predecessors did in 2014-15. On average SNP MPs cost over £21,000 less than their predecessors.

      SNP MPs are working harder than their predecessors too.
      New figures show that SNP MPs work harder than their predecessors, and are some of the most active MPs at Westminster. In 2016:

      SNP MPs spoke in an average of 64 debates. This compares to an average of just 43 debates for Labour MPs and 38 debates for Conservative MPs.
      SNP MPs have each tabled an average of 58 written parliamentary questions. In total, SNP MPs have tabled over 3,000 written parliamentary questions - holding UK government ministers to account and providing a strong voice for Scotland at Westminster.
      SNP MPs have tabled over 600 EDMs - helping bring attention to the important issues facing local communities, the people of Scotland and the UK.
      SNP MPs have contributed to the work of 77 Select Committees, Sub-Committees, Bill Committees and Commissions, including chairing 3 Select Committees.

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    11. Firstly, the prospect of a Labour/SNP government scares away English voters from voting Labour.

      Secondly, the experience of a Labour/SNP government would likely render Labour unelectable for a generation.

      So, yes, the best way to ensure that Labour governments remain a viable option is to vote Labour - even in the places where they have no chance.


      Firstly, Labour have ruled out a coalition with the SNP.

      Secondly, anyone who still hasn't learned from recent events that politics is volatile, and that making predictions about how things will be "for a generation" is a mug's game, might want to reassess their approach. Especially if that same person has a habit of making confident assertions about what's going to happen in a week or two which turn out to be complete bollocks.

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    12. Aldo,,,,seriously? , the current PM was against Brexit, as was the last but the party bullied them into it! Now she support it! " Tory Leader" means being the most compliant bully in a middle school.

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    13. What Labour rules out now will be the first order of business on June 9th if the Tories can't form a government.

      A Labour government held ransom by the SNP will be forced to reverse / water down brexit, forced into indyref2 and the potential break up of the country and forced to send yet more public money to Scotland at the expense of England. It's hard to imagine a Labour-SNP administration being anything other than a chronic failure and a toxic one for Labour, long term.

      Bill, you've just summed up the difference between Tories and SNP nicely - and why I admire the Tories so much as a political force. In the SNP, the plebs are bullied by their leader. In the Tory party, the leader is bullied by the plebs. Which seems more healthy to you? A sterile environment of "dae as yer telt til we've goat indy" or a dynamic environment of "respectfully, ma'am, fck you - i'm standing up for what I believe is right".

      Give me the latter every day of the week rather than your wee tartan borg collective.

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    14. You don't half talk some pish Aldo. Wee tartan borg indeed. You've seen the party democracy at work in the SNP conference, I know you have.

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  6. Dinnae fash peoples. It's Sunday Post and rumour is the data is weeks old. I might be wrong but it might be a total load of guff.

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  7. Update I was wrong. Poll was last Wed \Thursday so up to date. Puts the SNP of 46 seats. But Labour could get 3. Very worrying trend!

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  8. Many people will vote for what they imagine and end up getting what the didn't want.
    Voters in Scotland have the best chance to keep Tories out for decades, as part of the UK they will get Tory UK Governments most of the time.
    If the Tories are out at this election they will be back to carry on where they left off.
    We worked hard to get the time waster Labour MPs out and we can see the ToryLab deals going on in the Councils but if folks can't stay focused then they get the Government they deserve even if it isn't the one they imagined they were voting for.

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  9. Young people need to realise that a labour vote in Scotland is a vote for the union. They may misguidedly think they are helping Labour in England. What will help keep the Tories out in the UK is 59 Snp mps. 15 of the seats young people vote labour in instead of the Snp will result in more chances for Tories to get elected. Only the Snp can beat the horrible unionists.

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  10. Comparing the regional breakdowns of the Survation Polls taken in April and June is quite interesting. Can't read too much into subsamples but it suggests just since the 2017 campaign started the SNP and Lib Dem vote in NE Scotland has collapsed. It also puts Labour ahead of the SNP in mid Scotland and Fife.

    If I were an SNP supporter I'd be worried now, its possible election night is going to be worse than you think.

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    1. Perhaps, it would certainly appear to be your hope :)

      However, the seats you mention were already on the radar so it might not make that much difference to current predictions. It would be ironic though that this fillip, should it occur, might come at the expense of May's credibility.

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    2. Aberdonian, I'll explain the unreliability of subsamples to you when I have six months to spare. (And while I'm at it, I'll also explain the first-past-the-post voting system, because you clearly don't understand that either.)

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    3. It should be notes that while we all have some wrong opinions, many wrong analysis, ABERDEEN has come on this site to deliberatly tell a bold faced , made up , bat shit crazy lie about public servants stealing money.dibt tolerate such shit and wonder why your government is unresponsive.ABERDEEN is a LIAR who always LIES.if he says it is a fact- assume it is not.

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    4. Well thanks for the insults.

      A. Politics Graduate.

      B. Totally understand the subsample issue hence why I always caveat it. As does this blogger when he posts.

      C. Totally understand the dynamics of FPTP and the appliance of swing. But the Conservatives have been registering a massive swing in the NE for more than a year now and at two major ballot box tests.

      D. We know from the locals that the SNP have real problems in the North East. Even Alex Salmon acknowledged he had a fight on his hands. He's even been seen campaigning this time.

      E. The Survation subsample is in line with recent elections in the North East.

      F. Electoral Calculus have narrowed the gap in Gordon for the fourth time in a month. Now 5.5%. With a predicted 21% share for the Lib Dem suggests plenty of votes out there to fight for.

      No lies just facts and information out there and educated guesses based on it.

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  11. I think yesterday's march will help to re-focus people as to what this election is about , it is about Independence . Davidson , Dugdale and Rennie have made that abundantly clear from day one in Scotland . I hope the people of Scotland treat it as such , and don't fall for the ramblings of Corbyn and May , they care absolutely nothing for this country and both will only do it a lot more damage ,we need to send 59 SNP MP's to Westminster for Scotland's sake !

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    1. Or it will push undecideds into the vote against indyref2 camp. Very stupid having such a march.

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    2. Can't agree with that , after all the rubbish the United Unionists have been saying about no one wants a referendum , I think it was very timely !

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  12. The fact that record numbers turned up to the indi marches. Gives me hope that the 45 are alive and kicking,and will back the SNP in numbers. I still think we will get 50 mps and 45% of the vote share. Tories will get about 25% and Slabour about 22%. Murray may keep his seat and we will lose the borders seats plus Aberdeen, Perthsire and possibly Fife and Eastwood areas.

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    1. SNP won't lose Fife.

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    2. That sounds good to me and I hope you are also right Brian .

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  13. Hard to say how many seats the SNP will win. Feeling I have is the election in Scotland is going to throw up quite an unexpected result.

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  14. Yep I am at a loss to understand it sometimes!

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  15. I the Survation result would give SNP: 42 Con: 11 Lib: 4 Lab: 2. The Panelbase result would save EL and Ipsos Mori a few seats from the Tories for the SNP. It all depends on who is right and they'll definitely be some close finishes on election night.

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  16. Tories doing relatively badly in England but relatively well in Scotland.

    If the overall UK majority for the Tories was 5, for example, with the Scottish Tories having won 10, then Scots will have delivered a Tory government for Britain. This would be a first since 1992 - the last time a Tory majority relied on Scottish seats.

    It would be quite cool if that happened. But realistically we are still looking at a Tory majority of 50+. A preferable situation, from my own point of view, as a staunch conservative and unionist.

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    1. (points and laughs)

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    2. I have a feeling you wont be laughing on Friday morning.

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    3. If the overall UK majority for the Tories was 5, for example, with the Scottish Tories having won 10, then Scots will have delivered a Tory government for Britain. This would be a first since 1992 - the last time a Tory majority relied on Scottish seats.

      Your maths is confused. In your scenario, Scotland would have contributed 10 seats to the Tory side, and 49 to the non-Tory side. So without Scotland, the Tories would have a majority of 44, rather than 5.

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    4. But if those ten Scottish seats voted for someone other than conservative, the Tories would be a minority across the UK and seeking partners to help govern or, failing that, moving over to the opposition benches to make way for a coalition of all the talents, lol!

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    5. That isn't "Scots delivering a Tory government for Britain". That's Scots voting against a Tory government, but still getting one because the rest of Britain voted for it. Which is what always happens when there's a Tory government.

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  18. The guy behind the YouGov model says that the Scottish vote share in it as of yesterday was SNP 42, Con 26, Lab 25.

    https://twitter.com/benlauderdale/status/871326991819079680

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    1. Yet in recent elections the SNP vote share has been overestimated and the Tory vote share underestimated.

      I still think SNP high 30s, Tories low 30s. Same percentage decile - unthinkable just a matter of months ago, now a very realistic possibility.

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    2. Keep dreaming Aldo , keep dreaming !

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    3. I mean. Isnt this checkable?

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    4. It's not exactly dreaming to think that a result within the margin of error could be possible.

      It's quite incredible really that we're even talking like this. No one would have believed it in 2015. The SNP support is soft. It's draining away with time - and the opposition resolve has stiffened and gathered behind the conservatives, primarily.

      Tory Scotland in ten years? I'll raise a glass to that!

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  20. Polls are just a guess based on available info at the time. The election in Scotland is about do you see Scotland as a country or a big shire ruled from another country its that simple. I am Scottish so by definition want my country to be independent those who vote for other parties are quite happy to remain on their knees holding out a begging bowl for some crumbs. Come Friday the biggest party in Scotland will be the SNP which means in Scotland they have won and all the rest should admit that this country has rejected them. Lets hope that Slab, British Conservative in Scotland and Lib will now work for Scotland and not their masters in Westmonster.

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