Thursday, June 8, 2017

Exit Poll predicts SNP have 'triple lock' mandate for independence referendum, and perhaps the balance of power in a hung parliament

Well, didn't I say that exit polls tend to throw up major shocks?  As I feared, the SNP are predicted to be below 40 seats - the exact number is 34, which does mean they are just about predicted to have a majority of Scottish seats, but that could be at risk due to the margin of error.  But the massive news is that the exit poll incredibly predicts a HUNG PARLIAMENT - although again a small Conservative majority is within the margin of error.

Exit poll projection :

Conservatives 314
Labour 266
SNP 34
Liberal Democrats 14
Plaid Cymru 3
Greens 1
Northern Ireland Parties 18

Central forecast : Hung Parliament, Conservatives short by 12, Labour short by 60

The BBC have oddly claimed that the SNP prediction should be treated with more caution than the rest of the numbers for 'technical reasons' - this appears to mean there are a lot of very tight races that could all go in one direction or the other depending on small errors in the poll.  Obviously a lot hinges on whether 34 is at the optimistic or pessimistic end of the spectrum.

On the central forecast, the SNP and other progressive parties would not quite be in a position to help put Jeremy Corbyn into Number 10, but if the margin of error is slightly underestimating Labour (or indeed underestimating the SNP), that scenario would come into play.

It seems inevitable on these figures that the exit poll must be picking up a significant comeback by Labour in former heartland seats in Scotland - it's hard to see how the Tories and the Lib Dems could be doing this much damage to the SNP on their own.

As for the situation in England, if the exit poll is correct it seems the rumours on social media of a mass youth turnout were probably true.

UPDATE : To answer a point that has been made in the comments section, the Scottish prediction is NOT a crude projection based on UK national vote shares - it's based firmly on Scotland-specific polling.

170 comments:

  1. I'd take that result a million times over right now.

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  2. Is it correct they only polled 10 Scottish seats. Struggling to see how it's accurate.

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  3. If the SNP lose more than 20 seats then that is a shocker of a result.

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  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. unionists made this all about independence so if we get over 30 good result

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  6. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 8, 2017 at 10:15 PM

    Strong and Stable utter CHAOS if it's right.

    But they couldn't have put a bigger caveat around the scottish result if they had tried.

    They all but said this might be utter rubbish to the SNP number.

    So a long night ahead.

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    1. Didn't the exit poll slightly overestimate the SNP last time, though?

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    2. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 8, 2017 at 10:23 PM

      They didn't put anywhere near the caveat they have this time.
      Watch the announce again if you don't believe me.

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    3. In many ways last nights result should have been the result in 2015.

      Anyway: triple-lock for independence referendum undeniable; SNP in Westminster must not form any formal pact with Labour; SNP will take it issue by issue; Westminster will be an even bigger mess for months to come as it already is; SNP must continue to bolster friendships with other nations in Europe; now is the perfect time for the SNP in England and Scotland to do as much as possible to make the so-called united kingdom as ungovernable as possible.

      Time to get seriously mischievous. Perhaps Alex could co-ordinate this?

      Delete
  7. I reckon the prediction for Scotland is just the overall exit poll -almost all in England - applied to Scotland, without any allowance for political difference. Looks like an assumption of uniform Corbyn surge.

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  8. I hoped for this result, but didn't think it could come off.

    This is more of an SNP loss than I expected, and no Tory majority to stop them passing some of their more ridiculous manifesto pledges.

    I'll take this if it comes to pass. Would have liked more Liberal seats, but we're in the gutter and limping in to 14 is probably more than we were expecting, even if it's still a tiny number.

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  9. Half and half happy. Bad for the SNP but glad the Tories look like losing their majority.

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  10. Ach, we'll be doing it all again in November...

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    1. Yeah, if the poll is right, and the Lib Dems stick to their word about no coalitions, the Tories are completely buggered.

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    2. Not so. There's still the DUP. Wouldn't THAT be fun.

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  11. Before October's out. Clocks go back. Canvassing is knocked to hell. It only becomes worthwhile once the clocks go forward for the standard May gig. I suspect Treeza isn't going to last long. She has been found wanting. And will the Labour Party be able to stock knifing each other for 4 months? Locally here we have seen different factions not speaking to each other at polling stations.

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    1. She was doomed anyway, but surely she has to go instantly if the poll is right. How could she go into Brexit negotiations if she's the political laughing stock of the century?

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  12. @Anon,
    Unionists made this all about independence, but the SNP didn't defend themselves.

    I don't understand it. There is NO point trying to campaign on other issues, when independence was the dominant issue in the campaign for THREE other parties. Holding up that 45% at least is enough to win many seats when the unionist vote is split.

    At the very least campaign hard along the line that they will always push for 'more powers for Scotland'. And Scotland's right to decide. In No voting areas, how only the SNP will press for further devolved powers, which most people want.

    Instead we saw the ridiculous tactic of "It's the other parties obsessed with independence. Not us."

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    1. @Onwards

      If the exit poll is accurate then Nicola Sturgeon will have a lot of explaining to do. This would be the second extremely mediocre SNP campaign in a row, the Holyrood campaign last year was utterly dire as well. There has been a serious policy drift in the last 2 years.

      Delete
  13. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 8, 2017 at 10:37 PM

    Wings Over Scotland‏Verified account @WingsScotland 2 minutes ago

    TWENTY seats in Scotland are "too close to call".

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    1. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 8, 2017 at 10:41 PM

      Hence the extraordinary strength of the caveat around the scottish projection.

      It could still be right, but if 20 are that close it's a touch unlikely to say the least.

      Delete
    2. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 8, 2017 at 10:54 PM

      Wings Over Scotland‏Verified account @WingsScotland 17m

      12 of the 20 "too close to call" seats in Scotland have the SNP as favourites, sometimes by miles.

      Delete
  14. Well, whatever the result, I really want to commend James for the huge effort he has put in here in the last months. What he has produced here has been a one-stop shop for me to follow the polls, and learn a lot in terms of their weaknesses and strengths. In any event I really hope he'll continue to do so in the months ahead.

    Thanks James! :-D

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  15. Dimbleby said only 10 polling stations in Scotland were sampled.

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  16. Rather worryingly, the exit poll underestimated the Tories by 15 in 2015. Which would just put them over the top this time.

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  17. I was going to sleep this one out, but now I'm setting up for an all nighter. This laptop with the borked battery has been moved from my standing desk upstairs and plugged in down here next to the sofa.

    So, I'll be here all night. Will whiskies shall I drink? Maybe I should save them for SNP tight wins.

    For anyone worried about my laptop, I'm getting a replacement battery for Father's day from the youngest. A laptop which will be an actually mobile device will be a bit of a novelty.

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  18. Peak SNP has definitely passed.

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    1. Is that so, did you hear it from the BBC. Have a great evening.

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    2. Lol. Nah, this is just the SNP suffering from the traditional Westminster media black out again, on top of some dodgy Scottish TV debates. Put that on top of a small Corbyn factor.

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  19. Some of the assessments look just crazy. Ross, Skye and Lochaber is predicted a Lib Dem gain: but no sign of a Lib Dem revival in the council elections, and the candidate is anonymous and unseen.

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  20. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 8, 2017 at 10:56 PM

    Wings Over Scotland‏Verified account @WingsScotland 5 minutes ago

    Hostage to fortune here, but on looking at the detail am increasingly convinced the exit poll is bollocks in Scotland.

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    1. WeSaidNoToYesMen :-)June 8, 2017 at 11:06 PM

      Does he show his working out (pfft), or does he just not like it so it can't be true?

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    2. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 8, 2017 at 11:23 PM

      There is plenty of detail available from Curtice you Daily Mail imbecile.

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  21. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 8, 2017 at 10:57 PM

    PoliticsScot‏ @PoliticsScot 223 minutes ago

    Couple of things; if exit poll is close to right SNP STILL in a better position to affect change than 2015, & May is out on her ear.

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  22. That's one way of spinning it I guess. Alternatively SNP support collapses and doubtful the party can affect a realistic coalition with Labour.

    Its just possible the Conservatives might win this election because of Scotland and that hasn't happened since 1951.

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    1. And what do you think happens if the Tories get a majority off Scottish seats?

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    2. I would say I heard it from the BBC.

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    3. Its just possible the Conservatives might win this election because of Scotland and that hasn't happened since 1951.

      The Tories may well outperform the exit poll, but predicting that they could get a majority in Scotland is certainly...brave of you.

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    4. So it turns out Scotland has prevented a Conservative majority. We don't usually affect the overall result - interesting that we've done so in the opposite way from Aberdonian's prediction.

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  23. Tommy Sheppard calling it right. If the SNP had won this many seats (as the exit polls suggest) two years ago, it would have been considered a landslide. No doom and gloom.

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  24. Chris Cairns‏ @cairnstoon 3 minutes ago

    Pollster on @SkyNews just admitted the range of SNP total in exit poll is from 21 to 50. In other words #fuckinguseless

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  25. Was asked my opinion at the time. Not listened to of course. Wd need to get back to indy now, indy next, and indy til we drop.
    Jackson C and Jackie B ooft

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  26. Sources saying Salmond has lost

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    1. Heard its tight

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    2. Jamie Ross‏Verified account @JamieRoss7 45 minutes ago

      Good news for the SNP, bad news for fans of high drama: the Lib Dems are very doubtful about their chances of unseating Alex Salmond.

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    3. Angry Salmond‏ @AngrySalmond 1 hour ago

      That clunking noise you're hearing is the sound of Tories shitting bricks. #GE2017

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    4. Given Gordon is a Tory/SNP marginal, that's not the scoop of the century.

      And we can all read Twitter.

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    5. You clearly can't.

      alexmassie‏ @alexmassie 14 minutes ago

      Scottish Tories urging considerable caution about Scottish numbers. Can't see SNP losing 22 seats; dispute suggestion Salmond is in trouble

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    6. No, really. It's got its own website and everything.
      People just go there, and read it. It's amazing stuff.

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    7. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhh!!!!

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    8. Salmond is in trouble.

      Mccaig in Aberdeen south is gone.

      Delete
  27. Chris Cairns‏ @cairnstoon 23 minutes ago

    Pollster on @SkyNews just admitted the range of SNP total in exit poll is from 21 to 50. In other words #fuckinguseless

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    1. The Fife Free Press‏ @FFP 21 minutes ago

      With 50% of the Glenrothes boxes counted a senior SNP source estimates on visual counting - 20% Tory, 33% Labour and 45% SNP. #GE2017

      Delete
  28. alexmassie‏ @alexmassie 11 minutes ago

    Scottish Tories urging considerable caution about Scottish numbers. Can't see SNP losing 22 seats; dispute suggestion Salmond is in trouble

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  29. thank god. I damn near shat my britches in dismay when I saw the exit poll. that said, I voted late in Edinburgh North and it was quiet with lots of names not scored off the register which doesn't assuage any fears.

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    1. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 9, 2017 at 12:28 AM

      The exit poll could still be close but equally it could be miles out in scotland. Thing is, far too many of those too close to call seats from the exit poll in scotland look nothing like that when examined in detail and the first on the spot reports from counts certainly don't look to be backing it up either.

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  30. Tories playing down their chances in Scotland as the SNP did in 2015. I hope the exit poll is wrong for the SNP but it is a bit of a shock. Fingers crossed.

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  31. Faisal Islam @faisalislam 22 minutes ago

    Turnout estimated at 70% - big rise, this is what is being picked up in exit poll

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  32. Aberdeen press and J saying Robertson Salmond and Craig look like keeping their seats bur Kincardine going tory

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    1. Hope so.

      Safe until the autumn

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  33. Sterling heads for $1.27.......Strong and stable..Not

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  34. We have had 15 results in so far.

    Labour have won 10 seats, and their share of the vote is up 9.2%.

    And the Tories have won five seats. Their share of the vote is up 7.6%.

    That is equivalent to a 0.8% swing from the Tories to Labour.

    The Ukip share of the vote is down 13.5%, the Greens down 2.1% and the Lib Dems are down 1%.

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    1. WeSaidNoToYesMen :-)June 9, 2017 at 1:15 AM

      Results are concentrated in a) ukip heavy polling areas in 2015 and b) areas with large postal votes (thats how they finish their counts so quickly, votes are already there - 50% in sun souths case). So you're getting skewed sample of seats, ukippers returning home to mummy, and postal voters not having the labour bounce built in.

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  35. Looking at the first result and SNP loss I think the exit poll is looking to be correct and SNP losing heaviest to Labour.

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    1. Too early to say because what we thought would happen is happening and confused Tory Labour BritNats are breaking in sometimes unexpected ways.

      Sometimes the Labour voting tories will cancel each other out and sometimes they will boost one party enough to push them over the top.

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  36. "SNP holds Paisley and Renfrewshire

    Mhairi Black, who was thought earlier this evening to be in a close-run race, holds Paisley and Renfrewshire for the SNP on 16,964 votes.

    That’s her second win and she is still only 22.
    "

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  37. Mhairi Black just won.

    I'd say the exit poll is looking pretty shaky in scotland.

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    1. Craig Smith‏ @C_CSmith1 5 minutes ago

      Kirkcaldy likely to stay SNP as is Glenrothes, and NE Fife also expected to remain SNP. Very strange exit poll.

      Delete
  38. Bonfire of the BlairitesJune 9, 2017 at 1:40 AM

    I hope he really enjoys the company of tories because Corbyn is going to make certain that's about the only people he will be able to talk to soon enough.




    Ian Murray‏Verified account @IanMurrayMP Mar 11

    Often asked why I resigned from Shadow Cabinet. Ladies & Gentlemen I give u Jeremy Corbyn. He's destroying the party that soo many need.


    If it's another election in the autumn expect a large number of Blairites to quit then flee to more lucrative paying jobs (like so many of them did from scotland) or simply face deselection.

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  39. the real numbers gameJune 9, 2017 at 1:46 AM

    Lindsay Bruce‏ @RogueCoder250 6 minutes ago

    Andrew Marr is now discussing how a Labour/SNP government might hold #Brexit talks.

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  40. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 9, 2017 at 1:53 AM

    Wings Over Scotland @WingsScotland 2 mins

    Exit poll said Tory win in Pete Wishart's seat was a 99% certainty. It's gone to a recount. Exit poll all over the shop.

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  41. James McG Barrow‏ @JimmyMcCoo 3 minutes ago

    DUNDEE EAST SNP hold

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  42. The rumours were everywhere that the exit polls were based on only ten polling stations (not constituencies) in Scotland, which would make it an extremely small sample. Whether true or not, who knows but some of the individual predictions look quite hinky.

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    1. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 9, 2017 at 2:16 AM

      We're certainly going to lose more seats than we would like but winning the scottish part of the GE with a good deal more seats than Labour or tory is not even remotely close to the political apocalypse looming for the tories right now.

      One that they themselves put in motion and are entirely to blame for lest we forget.

      As for Labour at westminster, expect debts to be repaid in full.

      The Blairites will very soon be looking back wistfully at the days when they could put up comedy candidates like Angela Eagle and Owen Whatsisname to be laughed at. They are the ones facing a 'Nuclear Winter', and not before time.


      The westminster bubble media, far-right press and most of the pollsters may be the biggest losers of all.

      Yet again.

      They should however be used to being laughed at by now.

      Delete
  43. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 9, 2017 at 2:06 AM

    Dun Garbhan‏ @Dungarbhan 4 minutes ago

    Thank you God. We've held the Western Isles. @AngusMacNeilSNP


    Peter A Smith‏ @PeterAdamSmith 2 minutes ago

    SNP saying they've held Glasgow East and Glasgow Central. @itvnews


    Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 3 minutes ago

    East Kilbride SNP HOLD


    Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 2 minutes ago

    Paisley & Renfrewshire North SNP HOLD

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    1. Wings Over Scotland‏Verified account @WingsScotland

      Story of the night: SNP down everywhere, Tories up everywhere, Jeremy Corbyn winning back the votes Kezia Dugdale lost after 2015 gubbing.


      Wings Over Scotland‏Verified account @WingsScotland


      Angus Robertson out.

      Delete
    2. Sad about Angus Robertson but many expected it even before the exit poll.

      Of course, if there's another election in the Autumn... everything back into play.

      Delete
  44. FrankThomas‏ @FrankThomas27 52m

    Tory insiders now saying that they've lost every marginal constituency that Theresa May has visited
    #BBCelection

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  45. Peter Kellner saying Scottish independence is dead, Laura K agreeing. If this is correct thanks a fucking bunch Nicola Sturgeon.

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    1. "Peter Kellner saying Scottish independence is dead, Laura K agreeing. If this is correct"

      Some timely satire to cheer us all up.

      ROFL!

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    2. Kellner has his own labourish or new labourish agenda.....
      There's still everything to play for as far as indy is concerned

      Delete
    3. Two tory pricks telling us that independence is dead and you agree with them? How much did you take from JK Plagiarist? £5,000 like that nonce Loki?

      Delete
  46. Irritating Peter Kellner saying likely result in Scotland will kill independence.
    I think that might prove as valid as George Robertson's notorious claim about devolution killing nationalism stone dead

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    1. Hilarious stuff from the guy who didn't have the balls to stand by his own polling model and changed the methodology at the very last second.

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  47. yeah. if you dont outperform the communist party in russia every election you suck. you really thought you were gonna get 95% every election!

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    1. We don't like losing any seats because we actually work hard to win them and try to keep them.

      However, the basic math is easily displayed to the public when you ask the small scottish parties like the tories and Labour if they would prefer their number of seats or ours?


      Yeeeah, that's what we thought, now run along Dugdale and Davidson along while we exercise the mandate we already have.

      The westminster bubble media spin is irrelevant.

      The utter chaos of the next few days will cut through the bullshit like a knife.

      The gaping split in the tory party and Labour party will once again be front and centre for all to see. It has not magically gone away and only fools ever thought it did.

      That's before the Brexit juggernaut smashes them into submission.

      Delete
  48. Lovely that the whore swinson is back. First priority for any SNP voter is to cancel your Propaganda tax. Stop buying any newspaper and never ever ever lend your vote to the greens.

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    1. Piss off GWC2.

      We know you are a tory sockpuppet and we aren't falling for it.

      Delete
  49. The SNP vote is absolutely dire. You are absolutely tool and cretin for accusing someone of being a paedophile with no evidence whatsoever. Sturgeon ran a defensive, timid, cautious and incompetent election campaign, we got a way with it last year, but it has now caught up with us.

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    1. Such deep deep deep CONCERN muttley.

      At least we now know where you stand. :)

      Delete
    2. You do not know anything then. I am a diehard SNP supporter and have voted for them in all but a few elections (SSP during the dismal Swinney years). You obviously tolerate absolutely no dissent against the leadership. How is that helping then GWC79?

      Delete
    3. We have a mandate for the next Indyref.

      We are on the way to winning the scottish part of the GE with a good deal more MPs than the others.

      You were expecting a clean sweep every election perhaps?

      Stormy times and unholy alliances between Labour the the tories not fair weather enough for you to endure?

      When I see obvious stupidity and tactical mistakes I call them out. Going big on Indy would have merely increased the tactical Labour tory vote and done absolutely nothing about the Corbyn bounce which is easily the most significant factor tonight.

      I leave wailing about the leader to the tories who are already deep into their next leadership election prep.

      The First Minister absolutely hammered Dugdale and Davidson WHEN SHE COULD.

      If you seriously think we are given anything like a fair wind or freedom to put an agenda and case forward by the unionist dominated media then you are naive beyond belief and probably still pay your TV tax while you complain about the First Ministers abilities.

      Delete
  50. We don't like losing any seats because we actually work hard to win them and try to keep them.

    However, the basic math is easily displayed to the public when you ask the small scottish parties like the tories and Labour if they would prefer their number of seats or ours?


    Yeeeah, that's what we thought, now run along Dugdale and Davidson along while we exercise the mandate we already have.

    The westminster bubble media spin is irrelevant.

    The utter chaos of the next few days will cut through the bullshit like a knife.

    The gaping split in the tory party and Labour party will once again be front and centre for all to see. It has not magically gone away and only fools ever thought it did.

    That's before the Brexit juggernaut smashes them into submission.

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  51. Bumblefuck Brexit and the kipper tory incompetentsJune 9, 2017 at 2:47 AM

    Aamer Anwar‏ @AamerAnwar 12 minutes ago

    Aamer Anwar Retweeted Faisal Islam

    Well this says it all when TORY CCHQ cheer defeat of @AngusRobertson who PM was always fearful of

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  52. Clegg's Ostrich Faction 2 - The Tory Arselickers Strike BackJune 9, 2017 at 2:52 AM

    Boris now making something that sounds suspiciously like a leadership bid speech at his count.

    Calamity Clegg finally loses his seat.

    ROFL!

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    1. And Vince Cable wins :)

      Delete
  53. Tories edging towards overall majority (either single party or with DUP).

    SNP getting blootered all over Scotland.

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    1. Philip Sim‏Verified account @BBCPhilipSim 20 minutes ago

      New SNP MP! They HOLD Glasgow East,

      Delete
  54. In think we can forget Indy Ref 2, Salmond heading out now too, getting a kicking here, so dissapointed.

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    1. concern_scotlandJune 9, 2017 at 3:16 AM

      You can forget if it make you feel any better.

      We still have the mandate for the next indyref while Brexit isn't going to just vanish because the westminster incompetents couldn't find their own arses with a torch and a map and are going back into headless chicken mode yet again.

      Delete
    2. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 9, 2017 at 3:27 AM

      Theresa May looks and sounds like someone one their way out.

      Inconceivable someone that weak and incompetent can keep going, not when the tory party have such a wide range of other weak incompetents to choose from. :D

      She won't be able to hide from the tory party knives that are going to find there way into her back soon enough.

      Delete
    3. Jonathan Savage‏ @JSavageTweets

      As has been pointed out to me - Scottish Conservative MPs won't be able to vote on English laws per EVEL. Affects any majority in practice

      Delete
    4. yeah.just give up..that's what nelson Mandela said. ditto George Washington. and Ghandi on his way out of India. this is to chrism the quitter.

      Delete
  55. UTTER DISASTER AND CALAMITYJune 9, 2017 at 3:17 AM

    Philip Sim‏Verified account @BBCPhilipSim 9 minutes ago

    That's the SNP up to 18 seats now. They're going to be comfortably the biggest party in Scotland at the end of the night.

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  56. For anybody asking how so many SNP voters can have switched to the Ruth Davidson nazi scum party. It just hasn't happened.

    The yoon bigots have got their vote out, living or dead, real or imaginary as the case may be. And the Massive SNP boost in turnout from the referendum has been lost. Mainly thanks to the bbc and the smsm. That's why turnout is down overall but the SNP has lost a bigger share than that difference with 2015.

    Also having had an election so soon after the last means no incumbency bonus.

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  57. Uncle Tom's Toryboy TwitsJune 9, 2017 at 4:46 AM

    Harry Cole‏ @MrHarryCole 14 minutes ago

    Six weeks ago my inbox was saying "Mummy" was going to crush everyone. Latest: "She has fucked us massively. I hate her."

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  58. The exit poll was actually more accurate in Scotland than it was in England. Even when they get it right, the pollsters don't know they've got it right

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  59. How can we work a hung Parliament to our advantage?

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  60. Pretty depressed. About 37 per cent of the vote with no Greens standing must be a decent guide to our support for indy

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  61. My only concern is that we have now fought the last two elections, council and GE on the unionists own ground... we haven't created a narrative that people have bought into and we have been very much on the back foot...

    Have to say it, as I have so much respect for her, but Nicola seems to have taken the Yes movement backwards, not forwards, by being overly timid and not radical enough...

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    1. We still have the mandate for the next Indyref while westminster is about to plunge itself into yet more chaos with no end in sight and the Brexit locomotive screaming down the tracks at a self-evidently inept and incompetent tory party.

      Delete
  62. I got my wish. Kind of surprised really.

    Tory fail to get a majority (yay), so the foxes are safe for a few more years at least.

    And some of the more insane SNP intake have been removed (Kerevan, McLaughlin, Monaghan). Shame you lost Robertson, he was a good politician from what I could tell. I'd have swapped him for Wishart.

    Oh well, let's see what happens next.

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    Replies
    1. Actually I see 4 SNP seats with less than 100 vote majorities. I think you owe the Greens a fruit basket for not standing.

      Delete
  63. AnonymousMay 19, 2017 at 1:04 PM
    The 45% are motivated and focused by Indy. The SNP are fighting this election, as they did the locals, on the actual issues that the elections in hand will cover. In the current media circumstances this is a very weak campaigning position. It would rely on control of the campaigning ground the election is fought on, which the SNP do not control. SNP turnout will therefore depend, I fear, on how much of that 45% focus on what the unionist parties and media are fighting the election on (No IndyRef2) rather than what the SNP are fighting it on (strong voice for Scotland at Westminster). If the SNP vote listen to the Stronger voice for Scotland in Westminster campaign and the Unionist vote listens to the No IndyRef2 campaign line from all the UK parties and the media then voter differential could be very damaging. This is now all about what motivates your own side, and I for one am not motivated by what was always the SLabour line of 'Get the best deal for Scotland at Westminster'. This is a unionist line. There is no 'deal' for Scotland at Westminster, as SNP owning 90% of Scottish seats since the last election has very ably shown. 90% of seats and yet a legit constituted decision by the Scottish parliament to hold a new referendum is so easily and confidently ignored by Westminster. I fear the game has changed, but I hope I am wrong and the SNP are correct. This is their territory after all...

    braco

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    AnonymousMay 19, 2017 at 1:14 PM
    Sorry my laziness: 94.9% of Scotland's Westminster seats!

    braco

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    1. The 45% are motivated and focused by Indy.

      Your base will be, yes. But I think it's unwise to assume that all 45% are focused on Indy. Just like every other voting bloc, you have a section of floating votes in there who drift in and out.

      Delete
    2. SNP wins more seats in scotland than all other parties combined.

      Westminster bubble twits demand Sturgeon must go.

      Delete
    3. Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 6 hours

      Another reminder: Scottish Labour are now cock-a-hoop at coming THIRD in a Westminster election in Scotland.

      Two years after they had 41 of 59 seats.

      Delete
  64. Keith Burge‏ @carryonkeith 3 hours ago

    With the Tory party in chaos, it's Michael Gove I feel sorry for. He must have absolutely no idea who to stab in the back.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Mitch Benn‏Verified account @MitchBenn 4 hours ago

    Only the Tories could deliberately plunge the country into utter turmoil TWICE in 12 months and then call for "a period of stability".

    ReplyDelete
  66. We all need to remember, it was only proper indyref grass-root Yes campaigning that created the 2015 SNP vote NOT the the other way around! Party political roles need reassessed and realigned to the new paradigm. The unionists have adapted, now the SNP need to.

    braco

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2015 SNP vote produced a majority of SNP MPS in scotland as did last night. Difference is last night handed far more power to the current majority of SNP MPs in scotland because it's a hung parliament.

      Delete
  67. Richard Chambers‏Verified account @newschambers 12 hours ago

    When you ignore Northern Irish matters throughout Brexit and then your political survival hinges on its parties. #ge2017

    ReplyDelete
  68. Bumblefuck Bigots and Tories for UnityJune 9, 2017 at 10:47 AM

    Westminster bubbletariat hails Ruth Davidson as possible replacement leader to 'calm things down'. DUP unsure if they can replace Foster with Davidson but concede she has enough experience winning 'no surrender' vote.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 9, 2017 at 11:03 AM

    George Kerevan‏ @GeorgeKerevan 27 minutes ago

    Morning after : May deal with DUP puts Irish crisis heart of UK politics. So much for sidelining constitutional issue @RuthDavidsonMSP

    ReplyDelete
  70. With their tanks and their bombs and their bombs and their gunsJune 9, 2017 at 11:09 AM

    Jamie Ross‏Verified account @JamieRoss7 30 minutes ago

    The Tories have spent years squawking about an SNP coalition but now appear to be content to be propped up by the DUP. Funny old world.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 9, 2017 at 11:47 AM

    Jon Snow‏ @jonsnowC4 11 minutes ago

    One of the most extreme political entities in the British Isles, the 10 MPs of the DUP, is to wag the tail of Mrs May's minority Government

    ReplyDelete
  72. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 9, 2017 at 11:52 AM

    Gary Dunion ����‏ @garydunion 27 minutes ago

    Imagine the scale on which the UK media would have LOST THEIR SHIT if Corbyn entered No10 on SNP support. The DUP bigots are fine, though.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 9, 2017 at 11:53 AM

    David Halliday‏ @DavidJFHalliday 27 minutes ago

    2015: Britain held to ransom by MPs pursuing the interests of one part of the country is unthinkable.
    2017: Unless it's not Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
  74. With their tanks and their bombs and their bombs and their gunsJune 9, 2017 at 12:01 PM

    Highway62‏ @Highway62 13 minutes ago

    David Torrance and Daisley will be aghast at the ulsterisation of Westminster politics. Look forward to their columns tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 9, 2017 at 12:19 PM

    Ciaran Jenkins‏ @C4Ciaran 24 minutes ago

    Theresa May

    SNP/LAB = 'worst crisis since 1936'
    DUP/CON = off to the palace

    ReplyDelete
  76. Westminster Bubble Twits fail to understand what losing a majority means, well they ken nooJune 9, 2017 at 12:28 PM

    Adam Ramsay‏ @AdamRamsay 43 minutes ago

    The DUP have close historical links to terrorists & an agenda to the right of UKIP. Welcome to the new government:

    ReplyDelete
  77. With their tanks and their bombs and their bombs and their gunsJune 9, 2017 at 12:33 PM

    The most telling phrase you will be hearing on a regular basis.

    "and not derail the Northern Ireland Peace Process."

    ReplyDelete
  78. The tories are jammy.

    In 2010, they fell short, but the liberals propped them up.

    In 2015, they were forecast to fall short again, but scraped it - just.

    In 2017, they fell short but will still be able to rule thanks to the DUP and the Scottish Tory surge.

    A lucky party!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 9, 2017 at 12:56 PM

      "The tories are jammy."

      "A lucky party!"



      *SNIP*

      Hahahahahahahahahaaaa!!

      Meanwhile back on planet earth we will continue to watch the ongoing tory ultrashambles with varying degrees of utter incredulity and amusement.

      May is a completely lame duck PM. The tories have no obvious replacement that doesn't provoke yet more laughter. They tories are still irrevocably SPLIT over Brexit and the DUP is quite possibly the worst possible coalition 'partner' they could possibly be lumbered with considering the sheer chaos they could plunge the UK into on a whim.

      On the bright side May is on the same different planet and seems to think she can blithely go on as if nothing has changed. Completely and utterly deluded.

      Not. A. Chance.

      Yet more incompetence and Chaos and yet more blame to fall on the incompetent tories.

      Delete
  79. After some reflecting on the events of yesterday and this morning, I think the SNP have got a reality check. Winning 56 seats out of 59 in 2015 was obviously great, but it discounted around 50 per cent of the electorate because of the ridiculous and preposterous FPTP voting system. We have never really got off the back foot in the last two elections. Now the focus will be on Brexit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting Bigot toriesJune 9, 2017 at 1:36 PM

      The reality is we have more MPs in scotland than all the rest of the parties combined and we still have a mandate for Indyref2 to use at a time of our own choosing.

      We regret and are sad at the loss of some political heavy hitters and the tireless work of the activists and campaigners who will be feeling it most heavily.

      BUT we hardly fell into pointless despair and doom-mongering after the first Indyref loss so we are 100% not going to do so after WINNING the Scottish GE.

      Ruth 'no surrender' Davidson can dribble on about 'No Indyref2' all she likes but we still have close to three times as many MPs than the tories in scotland have and her party is in complete and utter meltdown at westminster.

      Delete
    2. If the public don't want another Indyref how do propose persuading them to vote Yes if you push on and hold it?

      Delete
    3. Aberdonian,

      Well, it is up to them whether they vote 'Yes' or 'No'. What is difficult about that to understand?

      Denying them that right - to choice - is a tad undemocratic.

      Delete
    4. wesaidnotoyesmenJune 9, 2017 at 3:10 PM

      douglas, what's difficult to understand about the difference between the majority of the seats and the majority of those that voted? 38% was the snp's share. 38. And that's with the greens standing aside. And no other reason for indy supporting voters to vote for any other party. Nicola said she wanted to see the polls at 60% before calling another referendum.... It's gone baby gone.

      Delete
  80. James,

    I'd like to thank you for your blog, and the pretty incisive commentary that you have run. This has been the place to go to for opinion on opinion polls and you are right a lot more often than you are wrong.

    Just out of curiosity, what do you think the future, say 12 months, holds?

    ReplyDelete
  81. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 9, 2017 at 1:40 PM

    Wings Over Scotland @WingsScotland 13 minutes ago

    Indy supporters! Cheer up, get some popcorn and watch the UK implode for a few months:

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-coalition-of-chaos/

    ReplyDelete
  82. Bonfire of the BlairitesJune 9, 2017 at 1:44 PM

    'no brainer' McTernan on the news looking and sounding as if someone has shot his dog.

    COMEDY GOLD :D

    ReplyDelete
  83. Strangely silent now James in your analysis

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For now, but expect a bizarre headline shortly about how this was one of the greatest electoral victories for the SNP in human history and an analysis of why we're heading straight for independence with a 70% vote for Yes.

      That is, after all, the whole point in this site: to take opinion polls/election results and spin them in the most optimistic way imaginable so that diehard SNP supporters don't have to engage with the (sometimes disappointing) real world. It's his USP so I don't blame him for giving people what they want.

      Now in terms of what this actually means for independence, I'd say the cause isn't lost. There are some pretty glaring signs at present that a lot of people are losing faith in the SNP and don't want a second referendum, but nobody can stop the vote from happening and we'd be starting from a point that's far more favourable to independence than we were at in 2014. Before May called this election, for instance, the country seemed united in the idea Corbyn was a joke, but once the campaign started it shifted and there's no reason why that can't happen with a second indyref.

      What is clear, though, is that this might genuinely be the only chance for independence because we can't rely on the SNP to stay in their dominant position forever. The idea of sitting around for 10 years with the SNP staying in power long enough to call another referendum in the late 2020s looks like a fantasy at this point. It's hard for any party to stay in power for 10 years (as the SNP have done) far less 20 years. The referendum probably does have to happen now and I firmly believe we'll still get one post-Brexit deal.

      Delete
    2. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanJune 9, 2017 at 2:22 PM

      Robert Andrews, as James has been up all night you can let him catch up with a bit of sleep.

      Delete
    3. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 9, 2017 at 2:46 PM

      2nd best result ever for the SNP in westminster actually.

      Sadly that's one of those troublesome *facts* that isn't just some vapid and ironic spin lines like "strong and stable".

      Just like winning the scottish part of the GE with a majority of MPs, more than all the other parties combined. Again, sadly for the Yoons that's just the basic maths and the real numbers of the situation.

      "Before May called this election, for instance, the country seemed united in the idea Corbyn was a joke"

      Nope. You are confusing the westminster bubble, the pollsters and the far-right press for the country, as so many tories and Blairites kept doing.

      The biggest loss of power wasn't even the lame duck tories last night. It was the westminster bubble and westminster establishment.

      We already knew you can achieve wins and impressive results despite the best efforts of a hilariously biased media. Now it's finally beginning to dawn on some on the left in Labour that they can almost do the same. But it's always going to be a struggle and nobody should underestimate the task of doing so day in day out against a relentless drumbeat from the BritNat and right-wing media. We have done so in power and in a minority govt in scotland. So for all the Corby-mania right now, he has not done so and the tories are self-evidently a complete fucking shambles at governing.

      "What is clear, though, is that this might genuinely be the only chance for independence"

      Is it? Proclaiming any certainties after the complete meltdown of May's authority and the jawdropping spectacle of the DUP lining up with a desperate and deluded May to keep her in power, would seem a trifle rash.

      "The idea of sitting around for 10 years with the SNP staying in power long enough to call another referendum in the late 2020s looks like a fantasy at this point."

      The idea of the SNP being in power for these 10 years was as much a fantasy as *ANY* Indyref used to be.

      Not to mention the hegemony that SLAB used to enjoy in scotland lasted considerably longer than 10 years to take but one pertinent example.

      The next indyref referendum will indeed happen so we'll just have to sit back and watch the incredible chaos at westminster play out that will precede it.

      Delete
    4. If the SNP hadn't fallen down on the job, Theresa May wouldn't have had enough MPs to cobble together a threadbare majority.

      Job 1 was to stop the Tories. Labour did their part in England, the SNP failed to do theirs.

      Delete
    5. Dugdale's Red Tory BlairitesJune 9, 2017 at 2:56 PM

      Labour in scotland were actively promoting voting for the tories to stop the SNP, so if ye don't mind we'll take your utter bollocks with the seriousness it deserves.

      LOL

      Delete
    6. Coalition of CatastropheJune 9, 2017 at 3:02 PM

      David Halliday‏ @DavidJFHalliday 3 hours ago

      How will Yes voters who came to believe a social democratic government in Britain was really achievable feel at getting a Tory/DUP one?

      Delete
    7. Tough. Then you should have done a better job.

      Tories lost seats to Labour in England, and they gained seats from the SNP in Scotland. That's a flat fact, no matter how much you shriek and whine about it.

      If you are so great you'd have held your MPs. You didn't, and now the Tories have enough for a coalition deal thanks to your failure.

      Delete
    8. Dugdale's Red Tory BlairitesJune 9, 2017 at 3:13 PM

      You don't seem to have a fucking clue who the DUP are or that Labour in scotland still came third behind the tories in scotland.

      Don't come on here and shriek witlessly because you haven't a clue about scottish politics when Labour self-evidently failed to win a majority and we did.

      Hardcore Unionist Labour voters voted tactically for the Tories in line with Scottish Labour’s all-consuming “stop the SNP, not the Tories” hate mantra. While it gained six seats, Scottish Labour’s vote and vote share barely changed from 2015.

      Delete
    9. Dugdale's Red Tory BlairitesJune 9, 2017 at 3:19 PM

      James MacEachern‏ @JamesMacEachern 7 hours ago

      The SNP still has 29 seats more than it had during indyref. Its majority in Scotland is the equivalent of winning 386 seats across the UK.

      Delete
    10. Bonfire of the BlairitesJune 9, 2017 at 3:22 PM

      Adam Ramsay @AdamRamsay Apr 19

      Met a Labour staffer in London this evening. Said she hopes Scotland elects Tory MPs to keep the SNP out, coz Labour's stuffed w/o Scotland.

      She didn't know that I was either Scottish or a journalist. Just blurted it out like it's an obvious opinion for a Labour staffer to have.

      Delete
    11. The DUP weren't your problem. Your job was to stop the Tories in Scotland. That was what your own leader said. Or do you reckon Nicola Sturgeon is a liar now as well?

      You constantly whine on this blog about how the Red, Blue and Yellow Tories are the same party in Scotland, so don't come bleating about being outnumbered.

      You chose to set yourself against the Yoons, so it was your job to stop the Tories gaining seats. And you failed miserably. So now we have Theresa May as PM.

      If you'd done what Labour did in England, she's be out on her ear. Instead, she's having a cup of tea in No10.

      Delete
    12. Dugdale's Red Tory BlairitesJune 9, 2017 at 3:47 PM

      "Your job was to stop the Tories in Scotland."

      Not Scottish Labour's job was it? Convenient. LMFAO

      "If you'd done what Labour did in England"

      The we'd have lost the election in scotland and lost a majority of MPs instead of WINNING the election in scotland achieving a majority of MPs you amusingly deluded Daily Mail dunce.

      Corbyn didn't win petal and since you seem to know as little about UK politics as scottish politics this is one of the BIGGEST reasons why.

      Ian Murray‏Verified account @IanMurrayMP Mar 11

      Often asked why I resigned from Shadow Cabinet. Ladies & Gentlemen I give u Jeremy Corbyn. He's destroying the party that soo many need.


      "Can't we just jump to @RuthDavidsonMSP being First Minister?"

      - Ian Smart Scottish Labour Spokesperson, TV pundit and British Nationalist


      Yer actual 'scottish' Labour there. Strong and Stable support for the tories and who have done everything in their power to kill Corbyn's chances every opportunity they got.

      May is a lame duck PM living on borrowed time a fantasy world. Everyone knows it. So your amusing concern for her tea drinking habits, while touching, is as meaningless as the rest of your inane witless babble.

      Delete
    13. Bonfire of the BlairitesJune 9, 2017 at 3:52 PM

      Pontypridd Labour MP Owen Smith: 'I take my hat off to Jeremy Corbyn' for General Election result

      Asked if his leadership challenge had cost Labour an outright win, he said: "It's impossible to know"

      http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/local-news/defeated-labour-leadership-contender-owen-13160869

      Damn! and it was OUR JOB to protect Corbyn from the Blairites of mass destruction.

      Obviously. :D LOL

      Delete
    14. "Nope. You are confusing the westminster bubble, the pollsters and the far-right press for the country, as so many tories and Blairites kept doing."

      Appallingly silly response, but for sheer amusement let's dissect this. The point you're responding to is that opinion polls suggested Corbyn didn't have a hope in the election, but throughout the campaign everything shifted and he ended up with a positive result. Right now, the prospects of a Yes vote in a second referendum are waning, but just as with Corbyn, we don't know how the dynamic of a second referendum would go and there's therefore still a chance Yes wins.

      The first point of idiocy in your response is that you're so blinkered in your fury that you've decided to start arguing against a point saying Yes could still win the referendum in the first place (despite the fact you think Yes could still win the referendum). This is of course standard behaviour for loons on the internet: rather than reading the point properly you simply get angry and bash out rehearsed diatribes at anyone who isn't as blinkered as you are about the subject. Anyone who isn't a believer is the enemy so just rant and rave away at them regardless of whether you actually agree with the point they're making or not.

      The second piece of idiocy in this response is that you're arguing against a point that says opinion polls shouldn't be taken as gospel, by arguing that opinion polls shouldn't be taken as gospel. Even if we ignore the standard conspiratorial lunacy of the rest of your comment that's brilliant in its own right. Again, try reading something and understanding it first before throwing a hissy fit.

      Delete
    15. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 9, 2017 at 6:00 PM

      Calm down dear.

      The opinion polls were wrong cupcake. They are now a laughing stock yet again. You do seem to have your head stuck firmly up your own arse and somehow haven't noticed. Your faith in their veracity throughout is touching but hilariously misplaced. That ain't a conspiracy it's just how it is. I used results to support my statements not polling since you still don't seem clear about the difference.

      Nor does anyone who knows a thing about politics dispute the ferocity and unrelenting nature of the campaign against Corbyn from the Blairites, westminster establishment and right-wing press. It was so blatant it quickly became a parody of itself. Again, no conspiracy required just the basic ability to understand what's in front of your face. Something, admittedly, you may well lack.

      Your insults are the low grade fallbacks of the usual tiresome Daily Mail simpletons and I would be a touch more impressed if you managed them without sounding like an out of touch twit.

      So try not to get so amusingly touchy when someone calls you out on your fallacious suppositions on the infallability of polling when it comes to reporting how much of a "joke" someone is.

      Nor does your trite and simplistic characterisation of James analysis of polling as "spin" speak to anything other than someone sadly well out of their depth and struggling to manufacture some spluttering outrage that you've been called out on your bullshit.

      Like this barely thought out brainfart. "Right now, the prospects of a Yes vote in a second referendum are waning"

      Right now you say? Reeeally? And why would that be? Is it a 'feeling' you just have or did Ruth Davidson impress you so much with her 'no surrender' rhetoric' you consider it an article of faith? Proof usually helps when trying to persuade people. Just a tip.

      This was a westminster election with westminster GE dynamics in full force. To interpret the tories coming a very distant second to the SNP as some kind of unanswerable refutation to the next Indyref's prospects would seem to be the flimsiest of pretenses if that is what you are deperately relying on. If Davidson actually won the GE in scotland she might have a valid point but she very much did not so we can dismiss that spin as the usual BritNat bollocks.

      You wisely don't dispute my points about SLAB being in power for an extended period or the SNPs possible prospects for being in power for such a period too. Maybe if you didn't waste so much time on dickheaded inanity and self-righteous pomposity you might produce something worth reading instead of bleating whiny shite.

      Delete
    16. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 9, 2017 at 6:25 PM

      Robert Peston‏ @Peston 2 hours ago

      Senior Tory MP: "We all f***ing hate her. But there is nothing we can do. She has totally f***ed us".


      Maybe Nigel Farage will save them? LOL

      Delete
  84. Coalition of CatastropheJune 9, 2017 at 2:17 PM

    David Halliday‏ @DavidJFHalliday 1 hour ago

    May: "Give me the mandate I need!"
    Britain: "No. In fact take *that*."
    May: "Thank you. Now let's get to work."
    BBC: "Brave. Impressive."

    ReplyDelete
  85. We need to let folk start to see what Brexit actually means, plus more chaos in London. Until the person in the street finds prices rocketing, p45s along with the pay cheque, etc then they won't see there is a problem.

    We also need to sort out the offer for Indy. A Scottish Pound is an absolute no brainer, for example, and really not complicated (plus makes a huge profit giving us more foreign reserves than the Bank of England). Spell out where the ministries will be, how many staff they will need, etc. If you say there are 1000 new jobs coming to Inverness, for example, that is a tangible benefit as opposed to something nebulous.

    So I think give the Tories enough rope to hang themselves and just be patient. Plus lets be a bit more radical - the rich, the lairds, the Edinburgh chateratti will never support indy so don't pander to them (make them pay more!). So e.g. every kid gets a free school dinner, plus breakfast if they want one.

    ReplyDelete
  86. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 9, 2017 at 2:58 PM

    Bill Cruickshank‏ @BjCruickshank 15m

    I think this graphic sums today up!

    pic.twitter.com/ICNNYw3YcT

    ReplyDelete
  87. Kipper Theresa and her westminster bubble incompetentsJune 9, 2017 at 3:35 PM

    James Kelly‏ @JamesKelly 8 hours ago

    May plans to carry on. Delight for the opposition parties - she's going to lead her party to ruin.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Divine providence for the UK in the form of a dog's dinner election? Brexit will have to be watered down. There will have to be greater consensus on a range of issues. Left wingers no longer need to be in a state of constant despair, as an alternative government is only a few seats away from being a viable option.

    ReplyDelete