Monday, May 1, 2017

May Day! May Day! It's not May's Day, as Google survey reveals 57% of Scottish public prefer independence to Brexit

I'm not sure if the Record have abandoned Survation as their regular pollster, but for whatever reason they've commissioned Google to produce a Scottish political survey, which is apparently demographically representative (albeit on the basis of algorithm-derived 'inferences' rather than definite information).  However, it's not yet clear that it's been politically weighted in the way that would be standard for an online poll conducted by a BPC firm, so we should certainly be very cautious about the results.

What stands out is a question asking whether people would prefer independence within the EU, or to remain in the UK under a Tory government after Brexit.  The result is startlingly decisive -

Independence within EU : 56.7%
Brexit under the Tories : 43.3%

It's important to stress that this is not a "Yes lead", any more than yesterday's widely misreported Panelbase poll was.  There are undoubtedly people out there who would answer "no" to the straight question "Should Scotland be an independent country?" because of misplaced doubts over whether an independent Scotland could really remain in the EU, or over whether staying in the UK really means Tory rule for the foreseeable future.  But that's not to say that these findings are meaningless - they chart a course to how a Yes vote could conceivably be won, if the choice is framed correctly.

There are also voting intention numbers for the general election, which are initially quite hard to make sense of, because (in contrast to the practice in standard polls) the Don't Knows haven't been stripped out.

Westminster voting intentions :

SNP 38.9%
Conservatives 24.6%
Labour 17.8%
Greens 8.4%
Liberal Democrats 6.2%

A rough calculation suggests that the SNP would be on around 40.6% of the vote if Don't Knows were removed - essentially identical to their 41% showing in the recent YouGov poll.  However, the Tories would be on only 25.7% - making this their worst showing of the general election campaign so far.  The SNP's 15% lead over the Tories also equals the record in the Survation poll as the biggest lead of the campaign (compared to 13% with YouGov and 11% with Panelbase).  Far more important, though, is the implausibly high vote for the Greens.  If it can be assumed that a decent chunk of that vote is actually destined for the SNP, this poll is effectively implying a very, very healthy SNP lead.

All of this does of course depend on whether we can trust Google's methodology, and given that it's so untested, I'm not at all convinced that we can.

82 comments:

  1. Not quite sure how that question would be framed and still be 'fair'.

    Wouldn't it be possible to have a referendum with two questions?

    1 - Should Scotland be an independent country? (Yes/No)
    2 - Should Scotland Remain in the European Union or Leave the European Union? (Remain/Leave)


    That seems to me the fairest way possible to turn the ideological conflict with Indy Leavers and Remainers on it's head. It's not complicated. And 16/17 + EU should be able to vote on both questions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In case anyone else misunderstood me, 'framing the choice correctly' wasn't intended to mean 'changing the referendum question'. I was talking about the way the choice can be framed by the Yes campaign.

      Delete
    2. I don't see how this could work anyway, actually.

      If you have them at the same time, and it's No and Remain then the latter would get stiffed by the Brexit Tory government and the result ignored.

      You'd just be in literally the same position you are now and nothing resolved.

      One issue at a time in a referendum works best.

      Delete
    3. Faisal Islam‏Verified account @faisalislam 1h

      No. Reporting German minister actual quotes after secretive meeting of great significance to UK, Brexit, election, is not treachery...

      Delete
    4. Rape Clause Ruth and her NHS Privatising toriesMay 1, 2017 at 7:31 PM

      Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland Apr 30

      Gullible Tory leader swiftly deletes tweet in which she was fooled by a malicious parody account

      Delete
  2. Wished I had known about the survey I am the last to know, but first in the Que for referendums.

    ReplyDelete
  3. 1997 devolution referendum had a similar issue. Question 1 asked about establishing a Parliament, and question 2 asked about giving that Parliament tax raising powers. Really, all you would need to do is reword the 2nd question to read "If yes to the above, should Scotland remain in the EU or leave the EU?" or something to that effect.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I recall that Tam Dalyell voted ´No-Yes´in 1997.

      Delete
    2. 1) Should Scotland be an independent country?

      2) Should Scotland become independent, do you want Scotland to attempt to join the EU?

      Would be a more realistic prospect for a two question referendum.

      Delete
  4. From the blurb on the Record article:

    "Google Surveys run thousands of surveys a day, across a network of online news, reference and entertainment sites where it's embedded directly into content.

    On the web, users answer questions in exchange for access to that content. The user's gender, age, and geographic location are inferred based on anonymous browsing history and IP address.

    Using this data, Google Surveys can automatically build a representative sample of thousands of respondents."

    Sounds pretty ropey to me.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In one specific sense it's actually superior to the methodology of most online pollsters, because it casts the net wider than a volunteer polling panel. But the "inferred" part of it sets alarm bells ringing in my head.

      Delete
    2. eh, i usually just click on the first available option in those surveys to get to the content I want quicker.

      Delete
    3. Any internet based polling that isn't backed by the polling council seems pretty much worthless to me. The internet is lefty and pro sep, generally. You need a sound methodology that can remove this inherent bias.

      Delete
    4. The poster above is a scotland hating tory yoonMay 2, 2017 at 11:38 PM

      The tory troll 'Aldo' calls scottish people "morbidly obese, dangerously unfit and nicotine stained." Described opponents of the Tory Rape Clause as "spaz" "chav" "loser" and "autistic". Spouts vile abuse about mental heath involving the mothers of scottish posters on here and generally behaves like a tory ned.

      Delete
    5. "..calls Scottish people morbidly obese, dangerously unfit and nicotine stained"

      And?

      Delete
  5. Jock Nat sis would not know much about May Day it being an international working man's day.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The poster above is a scotland hating tory yoonMay 1, 2017 at 5:25 PM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    2. it's always entertaining laughing at the obvious sockpuppet gwc2.it's been trying and failing miserably to persuade anyone on here it was genuine ever since it started making a fool of itself on this blog.david cameron pretending to be working class would be more convincing

      Delete
    3. At least you acknowledge the truth fash bhoy. And my intention is not to convince you Nat sis but to expose you.

      Delete
    4. Paul Wilson at Fanny Heid. Still taking it in both ends Paul! Spit it out son.

      Delete
    5. The poster above is a scotland hating tory yoonMay 1, 2017 at 7:58 PM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    6. The Jock English hating fascist watchkeeper never sleeps.

      Delete
    7. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic, sexist and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    8. At least I have the Balls to put my name up you Gutless Cunt. Now Fuck off and do one you better hope I never find out where you live you Hanky wearing Black pudding eating beer bellied fat bastard!!!!I'm in Edinburgh I will meet you any where ANY TIME BUT OF COURSE YOU ARE TOO YELLOW!!!

      Delete
  6. Bumblefuck Brexit and the kipper tory incompetentsMay 1, 2017 at 5:26 PM

    Egremont Lad on tour‏ @mexicanbhoy 8 hours ago

    Replying to @theJeremyVine @WingsScotland @Telegraph

    If only Turing was still alive. The cunning of these Germans writing in German in a German newspaper.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hideaway May and her revolting kipper toriesMay 1, 2017 at 5:28 PM

    Elizabeth Lloyd‏ @eliz_lloyd 8 hours ago

    Tories asked journalists to submit questions in advance and only selected ones they like! How is this acceptable?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Bumblefuck Brexit and the kipper tory incompetentsMay 1, 2017 at 5:29 PM

    Lindsay Bruce‏ @RogueCoder250 7h

    This is huge. #Brexit is going to be an utter disaster because May is completely clueless. pic.twitter.com/QGI8Wuj6h8

    ReplyDelete
  9. Rape Clause Ruth and her NHS Privatising toriesMay 1, 2017 at 5:30 PM

    Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland Apr 30

    Gullible Tory leader swiftly deletes tweet in which she was fooled by a malicious parody account.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are still into rape I note. Something to hide!

      Delete
    2. Colostomybag VanceMay 1, 2017 at 7:27 PM

      Edinburgh RapeCrisis @EdinRapeCrisis

      Act NOW to end the #rapeclause! Find your MP at https://is.gd/R9cRv5 & write to them - template letter at https://is.gd/fw3sDk

      Delete
    3. Rape must go on a lot in Edinburgh or the Nat sis are shamefully exploiting it for political purposes!

      Delete
    4. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic, sexist and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  10. The polls are very interesting and a bit all over the place.

    After that low 37% support for Indy. Now 2 polls in the same number of days with a majority for independence - although certainly worded differently from the main question.

    The Green support sticks out here though at nearly 9%. I wish them well, but surely a large number of that will go to the SNP come polling day.

    May's arrogance at calling an election she is unwilling to debate or participate in is coming back to bite on her on the arse. The UK is heading a major cross roads and she's basically rocking and rolling with "strong and stable government. No questions" She's lost on average about 8-9% of support in the polls since she called the election.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Rape Clause Ruth and her Pension Stealing ToriesMay 1, 2017 at 7:28 PM

    Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland Apr 30

    Gullible Tory leader swiftly deletes tweet in which she was fooled by a malicious parody account.

    ReplyDelete
  12. The establishment can't afford to lose Scotlands assets and leave the EU. The pound will get hammered.
    The perfect solution is to have May resign, then a Labour or hung parliament negotiate a soft brexit. That would lower the Yes referendum vote.
    Just wait for the press to start attacking May and the Tories.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Are the press slowly coming round to the cluster f**k that is going on?

    ReplyDelete
  14. ICM poll Scottish sample.

    SNP 38%
    Cons 32%
    Labour 18%
    getting desperate out there nats

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There were two ICM subsamples released today. Mysteriously, you only seem to have noticed one of them. The other was SNP 45%, Tories 24%.

      Delete
    2. Don't be a retard all your pathetic life!The SNP will crush your Greedy Selfish nasty Tory scum.

      Delete
    3. It is the Jock Nat sis that continue with Thatcherism. So who are the scum? All the Thatcher privatisation still intact in Scotland and your big donator bus man still raking in public money. You must have a willie growing from yer foreheid ya braindead nat si.

      Delete
    4. The poster above is a scotland hating tory yoonMay 2, 2017 at 7:51 PM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  15. If you Nat si have only the likes of cringe worthy Abbott tae beat then it should be easy.
    However you have the British Tank Commander tae deal with.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The poster above is a scotland hating tory yoonMay 2, 2017 at 7:52 PM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    2. Nat si scumbag turtle under the shell and in denial of Nat si Thatcherite policies.

      Delete
    3. The poster above is a scotland hating tory yoonMay 2, 2017 at 9:49 PM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    4. Blondie new single is great. Jimmy Shand and Andy Stewart are Ok with a bit of N'erday bun thrown in wie some ginger wine. Jocks wae hae fukc the English.

      Delete
    5. The poster above is a scotland hating tory yoonMay 3, 2017 at 12:18 AM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  16. Rape Clause Ruth and her Pension Stealing ToriesMay 2, 2017 at 7:54 PM

    Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 4h

    pic.twitter.com/Qxphr7lAJN

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Edinburgh RapeCrisis @EdinRapeCrisis

      Act NOW to end the #rapeclause! Find your MP at https://is.gd/R9cRv5 & write to them - template letter at https://is.gd/fw3sDk









      .

      Delete
    2. Nae outcry fae the Nat sis about child buggeration over decades fae the old time religion Vatican bum bhoys.

      Delete
    3. Pedo Saville was a guest of Maggie Thatcher for Christmas every year from 1979 to 1992.

      She also recommended his knighthood in 1990

      Delete
    4. And he was a Vatican favourite. Oops truth hurts as the Bishop said to the alter bhoy.

      Delete
    5. Remember when Theresa May tried to hobble the MP child abuse scandal from the start? She cannot be trusted. #GE2017

      pic.twitter.com/hZWs8nPYVU

      Delete
    6. Posting using GWC2 is your kop out bum bhoy!

      Delete
    7. The poster above is a scotland hating tory yoonMay 3, 2017 at 12:03 AM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  17. It's amusing to see the SNP railing against the tories, calling us "scum" and so on. If the SNP ever got their way on independence, they would have to out tory the tories - bringing in butt clenching austerity to balance the books. If Tories are scum on account of their centre-right policies, SNP must be turbo charged filth of the highest order.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The poster above is a scotland hating tory yoonMay 2, 2017 at 11:02 PM

      The tory troll 'Aldo' calls scottish people "morbidly obese, dangerously unfit and nicotine stained." Described opponents of the Tory Rape Clause as "spaz" "chav" "loser" and "autistic". Spouts vile abuse about mental heath involving the mothers of scottish posters on here and generally behaves like a tory ned.

      Delete
    2. Wings Over Scotland? @WingsScotland

      Yoons hate Scotland so much they even hate English people who move there.







      .

      Delete
    3. The Food Umbrella? @thefoodumbrella

      A list of the Tory MPs under criminal investigation for #ElectionFraud

      RT & SHARE

      #87RT #GeneralElection #GE2017 #GE17 #GeneralElection2017

      pic.twitter.com/nrVRYVCmbv

      Delete
    4. Rape Clause Ruth and her NHS Privatising toriesMay 2, 2017 at 11:05 PM

      "Michael Gove wanted to privatise it, Boris wanted to charge people for using it and Iain Duncan Smith wanted a social insurance system."

      "The NHS is about as safe with them as a pet hamster would be with a hungry python."

      - Sir John Major. Former Tory Prime Minister speaking about the N.H.S.

      Delete
    5. Theresa May's National FrontMay 2, 2017 at 11:06 PM

      Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe

      CEO, @brexitanalytics Former Tory National and International Security Policy Adviser. Columnist for ConservativeHome @conhome

      Garvan Walshe? @garvanwalshe Feb 26

      I was in 2005 Tory campaign - we worked assiduously to ramp up anti immigrant feeling.

      Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe Feb 26

      And from Brown on nobody challenged lies that immigrants took jobs, were here on benefits etc.

      Delete
    6. The poster above advocates 15 billion pounds of cuts to Scotland's public sector, devastating schools, hospitals, policing and social services. He pretends to be a social democrat but is actually economically far to the right and more Tory than the tories.

      Delete
    7. Carlotta 'Aldo' VanceMay 2, 2017 at 11:11 PM

      Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe

      CEO, @brexitanalytics Former Tory National and International Security Policy Adviser. Columnist for ConservativeHome @conhome

      Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe Feb 26

      I was in 2005 Tory campaign - we worked assiduously to ramp up anti immigrant feeling.

      Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe Feb 26

      And from Brown on nobody challenged lies that immigrants took jobs, were here on benefits etc.

      Far-right Scum

      Delete
    8. Hideaway May and her revolting kipper toriesMay 2, 2017 at 11:13 PM

      ᴎᴁʙᴅ‏ @naebD 8 hours ago

      Ruth had to present her banter and questions to the PM's team beforehand for approval.

      Delete
    9. Hideaway May and her incompetent kipper toriesMay 2, 2017 at 11:15 PM

      TechnicallyRon‏Verified account @TechnicallyRon 9h

      "Mrs May please eat normally"
      "this human food does not please me"
      "Milliband lost the election for eating things wrong"
      "SILENCE"

      pic.twitter.com/Qv5gPdSmj2

      Delete
    10. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesMay 2, 2017 at 11:20 PM

      Paul Kavanagh‏ @weegingerdug

      Read this thread & you will see why Ruth Davidson posing on mobility scooter while the Tories take away mobility cars is so deeply offensive


      NiceConversations‏ @NiceConvos

      Grab a cuppa.
      After being angry all day since I saw pics of Ruth using a mobility charity as photo op, I want to bore you with my story. /1

      https://twitter.com/NiceConvos/status/856624579619561472

      Delete
  18. Rape Clause Ruth and her NHS Privatising toriesMay 2, 2017 at 11:01 PM

    Women's Aid ‏ @WomensAid 13h

    A Scottish conservative politician has defended the #rapeclause saying it was designed in collaboration with expert orgs. NO. IT. WASN'T.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Name the politician!

      Delete
    2. The poster above is a scotland hating tory yoonMay 2, 2017 at 11:40 PM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    3. I name her for you Ruth Davidson a true philanthropist if there ever was one giving subsidies to Jocko Fash Nat sis

      Delete
    4. The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  19. The Tories run Scotland courtesy of the Jock nat sis and Thatcherite policies.
    .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The poster above is a scotland hating tory yoonMay 2, 2017 at 11:31 PM

      The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    2. Jock Nat si Tartan Tories have an obcession with rape and are apologists for child rape in religious institutions.

      Delete
    3. Pedo Saville was a guest of Maggie Thatcher for Christmas every year from 1979 to 1992.

      She also recommended his knighthood in 1990

      Delete
    4. Remember when Theresa May tried to hobble the MP child abuse scandal from the start? She cannot be trusted. #GE2017

      pic.twitter.com/hZWs8nPYVU

      Delete
    5. Rape Clause Ruth and her Pension Stealing ToriesMay 3, 2017 at 12:17 AM

      The Food Umbrella @thefoodumbrella

      A list of the Tory MPs under criminal investigation for #ElectionFraud

      RT & SHARE

      #87RT #GeneralElection #GE2017 #GE17 #GeneralElection2017

      pic.twitter.com/nrVRYVCmbv

      Delete
  20. Rape Clause Ruth and her Pension Stealing ToriesMay 2, 2017 at 11:33 PM

    Emma McK ��‏ @ItsEmmaMcK

    The Tories won't listen to @womensaid, @rapecrisisscot, @theRCN & all opposition parties re #rapeclause. Worse still, they ignore survivors��

    ReplyDelete
  21. Rape Clause Ruth and her Pension Stealing ToriesMay 2, 2017 at 11:41 PM

    Frank Zola @mrfrankzola

    Tories confirm pensioner back door bedroom tax of £1500+ per year

    https://speye.wordpress.com/2017/03/14/tories-confirms-pensioner-back-door-bedroom-tax-of-1500-per-year/ …

    ReplyDelete
  22. I endorse Tereasa and Ruth fighting for truth justice and the American way

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The troll 'GWC2' calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete