Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Latest subsample average suggests SNP have a huge 18% lead over the Tories

We may simply have had a run of good results by complete chance, but it has to be said that the last week of Scottish subsamples has made for considerably pleasanter reading as far as the SNP are concerned.  There hasn't been even a single one in which they've slipped below the 40% mark, which certainly wasn't the case earlier in the campaign.  Their best showing was 56% in a Panelbase subsample released today, and there have also been four others in the high 40s.  The obvious hope is that the media hype over the Tory gains in the local elections has backfired, and that anti-Tory voters are now coalescing behind the SNP.

The following subsample average is based on eight polls - two YouGov, one Survation, one ComRes, one ICM, one Opinium, one ORB and one Panelbase.

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

SNP 46.4% (+3.6)
Conservatives 28.0% (-2.3)
Labour 14.6% (-0.4)
Liberal Democrats 6.5% (-1.0)

(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)

52 comments:

  1. This election does look like it's going to be Scotland vs Tories.

    SNP will probably lose a few seats but at least the lines will be clearer. There should be fewer distracting social or economic issues where in the past the SNP and Labour were largely in agreement.

    Should be interesting.

    Funny if in Edinburgh South the Tories rally round Ian Murray while the Labour voters vote SNP.

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  2. The Labour manifesto apparently "clarifies" Corbyn's previous statement that if the Scottish parliament voted for a referendum, he wouldn't stand in their way. Apparently, what it REALLY meant was that if the Scottish parliament voted for a referendum, he WOULD stand in their way. This "clarification" will hopefully annoy enough SLAB voters into voting SNP...
    Alex Birnie

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Labour manifesto is far too left wing and will unite the Nat si Yellow Tories and Blue Tories aginst the common enemy, the working class.

      Delete
    2. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
      Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
  3. I really think on the day, the Tories will gain no more than a handful of seats - the two Borders seats and West Aberdeenshire are certainties. They may be lucky to pull off East Renfrewshire and might just squeak it in Aberdeen South. LibDems likely to take Edinburgh West and maybe East Dunbartonshire. Edinburgh South looks close, but SNP may well take it. Either way, the SNP should still end up with around 50 seats - I'd say 52, if you were to put a gun to my head.

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    Replies
    1. I wouldn't say West Aberdeenshire is a certainty - the Tories are justifiably favourites, but I don't think it's a lost cause.

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    2. On second thoughts, I'll say 50/51.

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    3. You may well be right, James - for some reason, the bookies have the Tories at 1/5 to take the seat. SNP have 7000 maj, and Labour only got 2500 - not that many to transfer over to Tories. Will be interesting to see what happens to the 12000 LibDem votes.

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    4. Aberdeenshire West/Kincardine has strange odds. Just nipping out but IIRC it's about 1/7 on for a Tory gain and 4/1 for the SNP to retain the seat. Whilst the Tories won the seat in Holyrood, this seat was a Lib Dem seat (they polled 11k or so last time around in 2015) and I believe the SNP beat the Tories by about 4-5000 votes? Again, apologies if these numbers are incorrect (going by my memory).

      I'll certainly be putting an optimistic punt on the SNP holding the seat.

      Dumfries/Galloway also has kind odds on the SNP retaining their seat - around 4/1 last I checked - and considering of the 3 south/border seats, this is the least rural and takes in other areas.

      I'm not saying go for broke! but certainly worth a quid if you have it to spare.

      Likewise regards Fluffy.

      East Renfrewshire to me looks like a good chance of SNP success thanks to the Lab/Tory fight in there along with the Tory/Lib fight in Dunbartonshire West too.

      I'm thinking the Tories' gains will be in more leafier places like St Ives, Bishop Auckland, Lewes, etc and a few Scots/Welsh ones thrown in too ; but I think Labour will be stronger than expected in places like northern England and south Wales - like we seen in the local elections.

      And no matter what the polls say.

      There is no way that T. May is THAT popular!

      Stil, lots of time and polls to come out!

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    5. Worth noting that W Aberdeenshire Westminster constituency has different boundaries to the Holyrood one and includes Stone haven and Portlethen. The Holyrood constituency is more rural/Tory voting.

      However, the Tories do have good chance here but I live in hope Stuart Donaldson might retain the seat. My Green/UK labour supporting partner (who isn't that keen on independence) has never voted SNP before but will do next month to try to keep the Tories out.

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    6. Nothing is certain in this coming election,some may want to punish Teresa May for lying,again, or because she is incompetent,some may decide to vote for any unionist party that possibly beat the SNP.That is if any of them can beat us (aye I'm for SNP because I'm a member and always voted SNP)I hope enough of us turn out to keep all of our seats and perhaps with a little bit of luck we'll take all of the Scottish Westminster seats,and surely even the daftest unionist will see that we should be independent.

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  4. The sub samples have shown an increase for the SNP. Maybe James is correct and some voters have been put off by the media hype around the Tories. I still think the SNP will hold onto Moray and Perth quite comfortable become of the personal vote of Pete and Angus. If the SNP can hold onto 50 seats and win around 46% then that would be an excellent night. The Tories will have their best night for a long time in Scotland come the election but at the same time I think they will be left a little disappointed at picking up just a handful of seats. I also think rgw Labour vote in Scotland will go up and the Tories will poll around 23%.

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  5. Is it very bad, shortsighted and misguided of me to hope that the vile May regime does one or more things in the next few weeks (before anyone receives their postal vote letter) that are so offensively obnoxious to most of us Scots that they turn all of our mebbes aye and mebbes naw voters into definite Yessers?

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    Replies
    1. She's ALREADY done plenty to justify that.

      Those not already enraged by her never will be sadly :-(

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  6. For me, the Tories were always taking a huge gamble talking up their chances in Scotland.

    It's a big risk to think that Scots would prefer to take an anti-SNP stance compared to an anti-Tory stance when the issue at stake is whether Theresa May and her band of proto-fascists are returned to government or not.

    Hopefully these most recent sub-samples are reflecting the dawning realisation of what voting Tory in this election really means.

    I suggested on FaceBook last week that the Tories in Scotland were putting a brave face on the council election results (shamelessly supported by the MSM) and that their overall share of the vote was significantly below what they were hoping for. I have also been looking at the local preferences very closely and have noted that where voters took the time to give all candidates a preference, well over half voted for the Tory last. They are still utterly despised beyond their core vote.

    Even last week I was optimistic that Scotland might still return no Tory seats at all next month. I am even more optimistic this week and, just think, we have three more weeks of the hapless Davidson and her newly elected band of morons imploding all over the country to enjoy!!!

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    Replies
    1. I hear what you're saying, fella, and I won't disagree with any of it. But I'll add a bit on if I may.

      This is anecdotal.

      My in-laws are really really nice people. Like, really nice. They're the type who will stop to help a complete stranger in the pouring rain in the middle of the night in the middle of nowhere. They are also avid Tory supporters and fevered SNP denouncers. They love one and hate the other in equal measure.

      I think there'll be a lot of folk like them who'll make the effort to come out and vote Tory purely because they've been told that the Tories have a chance at this one. It could make it a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. I'm a bit worried about it to be honest.

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    2. My family and I were always True Blue Tories through and through. I don't know quite why I started changing my mind. I think it was a lot of little things, even watching Braveheart and realising, (although it is totally pathetic in its historical accuracy), that Scotland did not have to be a vassal state to England. Trainspotting also made me realise that we are subservient to Little Englandshire. Realising that the Tories are self serving savages who despoil all before them to line their own pockets and care not a jot for anyone who is not a wealthy, public school-educated bumble-brain and who cheerfully would return us to Dickensian workhouses and zero health care was the final nail in their coffin for me. My Father, who was a card carrying member of the Conservative and Unionist Party, is now a SNP supporter big time because he now realises how badly the Liebore and CONservative Farties have damaged the country and impacted on his retirement. Broon the balloon robbed his pension fund and ruined the economy so my parents' nest egg became almost worthless. Despite all that, my mother is STILL voting Tory and cannot bear the thought of putting a tick for any sort of socialist party. She cannot see past the union and it is causing massive tension and quarrels in their home. Very sad.

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  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  8. I get the impression the Tories running around causing chaos in towns and villages. Has created a backlash. The yes vote is now primed for action and many Labour voters and don't knows are backing the SNP. I predicted the Tories would get 23% at the start of this and I still feel that. The SNP getting 46% would be tremendous and they might only lose 3 seats.

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    Replies
    1. Your impression is very positive and I'm sure it's correct because it sounds nice.

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  9. A poster on WOS said he was asked about his voting intentions for Scotland by yougov this morning.

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  10. Dan, yes, I was too. They also asked (by candidate name) who I was going to vote for, and how certain I was to vote.

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  11. I think that the Conservatives might be in for another surprise now that UKIP have officially stood down in marginals.

    The surprise in 2015 was, I believe, down to the fact that UKIP drew a lot of support from all other parties in the rUK. However when it came to the vote and more apparent they had little to no chance of winning any seats the more conservative minded of their support "tactically" voted for the one party that promised a referendum.

    Labour inclined supporters stuck with them as a protest vote. We may see UKIP as horribly right wing but it's more like their extremely insular and appeal to the kind of protectionism that unions got in closed-shop agreements.

    This time round Corbyn is, at a minimum, Eurosceptic. The very people Brown managed to ham-fistedly drive into UKIP's arms in bigot gate might be more tempted to vote for a Corbyn led-Labour

    Also remember that the national figures include Scotland. So the irony is that in the rUK Labour and the Tories are at least a few percent closer than they might have been in previous years with the same.

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  12. I am going to go out on a limb here , you know round the doors admittedly working class Glasgow I get the impression that some voters have taken the fact that the Tories have won a few council seats as an affront to Glasgow's image . There is a wee bit of an anti Tory backlash beginning to gather steam. You know what has anyone counted out the possibility that the SNP could actually do better in terms of the popular vote than in 2015 .

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    Replies
    1. I think the SNP can win DCT from Mundell.

      I'm sceptical about Edinburgh South and I would never presume to predict Orkney & Shetland as I just don't understand the dynamics there.

      However, I think Edinburgh West is all but certain to be lost.

      I'm thinking 56 is a good as it will get but I'd take that in a heartbeat if it meant no Tories.

      Delete
  13. TNS / Kantar sub-sample

    SNP 38, Con 18, Lab 9. They don't strip out don't knows (24%) and refusers (5%). If you remove DK and refusers in proportion to the declared supporters, that gives SNP 54, Con 25, Lab 13.

    http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/sites/tns-bmrb/files/KPUK%20-%20Polling%20tables%20-%2016.5.2017_0.pdf

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    Replies
    1. Taking into account the squeeze, I make it : SNP 50.7%, Conservatives 26.9%, Labour 10.4%, Greens 6.0%, UKIP 3.0, Lib Dems 3.0%. But those numbers still aren't definitive, because they aren't turnout-weighted.

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    2. Thanks - sub sample size is 112

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  14. The idea that Scotland is 'turning Tory' is absurd. Trying to sell this idea to us via the Brit media will never wash. We know that the Tories are drawing support from unhealthier aspects of Scottish society. But they remain toxic. And this will do the independence cause no harm. A tsunami is coming. Perhaps not this time round; but it's on its inevitable way.

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  15. Maybe everyone is wising up to the fact that the Empress has no clothes. And perhaps Davidson's one track pony campaign is backfiring in the light of the bigotry, misogyny and sheer anti-Scots shoutery she and other Tories have been displaying since the Local Elections.

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  16. Tories, Labour and Lib Dems will all be a bit higher. SNP will be a bit lower. Low 40s / high 30s for SNP I reckon. Not a pleasant time if you're an SNP MP representing a rural area.

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    Replies
    1. I hope this doesn't upset you, Aldo, but I suspect SNP MPs aren't going to be dropping with fright just because of your personal opinion that opinion polls are overstating SNP support.

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    2. Gypsy Amalia reliably informs me that the Tories are still toast in Scotland.

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  17. James- I can't remember if you're adverse to guessing. Understandable if so. Just wondering if you can be coaxed into revealing your gut feeling about how many seats each party will win on June 8. I'm feeling snp 50,tories 8,libs 1, labour nada. While my "predictions" are always wrong, I don't think this one will be too far out. :)

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  18. Aldo, suspect you're vastly overestimating tory gains. Which seats do you think Labour will win?

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  19. Man from Largs says AyeMay 16, 2017 at 7:58 PM

    The Cons are a busted flush. One thing that is expanding though is Ruth Davidson's face. It's puffing out and is unstoppable.

    ReplyDelete
  20. With that many subsamples from a wide range of polling companies, you have to suspect that they do show what's happening.

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  21. Gosh, who would have thought the snp vote would rise to yes levels....especially in light of the mooth gobbing off about all manner of things.

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    Replies
    1. I think Ruth is starting to bore people. She is a one trick pony and there is an angriness about her delivery of late that is unappealing.

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    2. I think the fox-hunting gaffe as well as blanket wall to wall coverage of the tory campaign has focused the minds....

      Delete
  22. Brilliant new poll from the clever BBC saying the uneducated will vote Tory and it was those uneducated that voted for brexit..... The educated liberal elite lost! How can that be that the clever people lost.... Are they really clever or are the uneducated clever....Ye cannae beat yoon i versity ed ji ka shun.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yoon i versity Im the cleverest one hear

      Delete
    2. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
      Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
  23. Replies
    1. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
      Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
    2. "Loose"? Like your brain and bowels you mean?

      Delete
  24. I seen this, but haven't had time to look it over nor the polling company.

    NumbrCrunchrPolitics‏ @NCPoliticsUK 5h5 hours ago
    More
    GfK/Business Insider:

    CON 48 (+7)
    LAB 28 (=)
    LD 7 (=)
    UKIP 5 (-7)
    GRN 3 (-3)
    SNP 6 (+1)

    3rd-14th
    N=1,592
    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-jeremy-corbyn-is-a-bigger-vote-winner-than-tony-blair-general-election-labour-2017-5 …
    #GE2017

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GfK is a very long-standing political pollster, albeit under a different name - they used to be NOP.

      Delete
  25. Check out the SLAB figure in the Scottish sub-sample - 12% vote share of those certain to vote!

    ReplyDelete