Monday, May 29, 2017

Indications that the new Survation phone poll may show Tory lead dropping to just 6%

I'm going out on a limb with this one because these figures aren't officially confirmed yet, but having done a bit of Kremlinology on Twitter I'm inclined to believe they're probably accurate.  They seem to have been published early by mistake and then quickly deleted.  (And I should stress that I'm not breaking an embargo, because I haven't been sent embargoed information.)

Britain-wide voting intentions (rumoured Survation phone poll results) :

Conservatives 43% (n/c)
Labour 37% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 8% (n/c)
UKIP 4% (n/c)

The apparent drop for "others" isn't necessarily a cause for concern, because there's still around 8% of the vote that the four parties listed above don't account for, which in theory leaves plenty of room for a decent SNP share.

Some people are attributing mystical significance to the Survation phone series, because it uses the same methodology as an unpublished poll late in the 2015 campaign which (unlike almost every other poll) was very close to the final result.  As that was just a single poll, though, it's unclear whether that good performance was achieved by chance (ie. random sampling variation) or because of superior methodology.  If the latter is the case, it may be significant that Survation seem to be producing results similar to YouGov and ORB, rather than similar to the more Tory-friendly pollsters ICM and ComRes.

Phone polls are rare in this campaign, but after the shock of the EU referendum we've probably moved past the point of assuming that phone polling is bound to be more accurate than online polling.  ICM have actually abandoned phone polling altogether because of the difficulty of getting a representative sample by phone.  Nevertheless, if Survation's figures are confirmed, it'll at least be reassuring to learn that phone polls don't appear to be producing better results for the Tories.

30 comments:

  1. Some better news for the SNP in todays SUBSAMPLE Comres poll.
    Excluding DK, SNP 47% TORY 26% LABOUR 21% LIBDEM 4% GREEN 1%

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    1. Let's cross our fingers that one is right. ;)

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  2. The LD vote share in all the UK polls have been dire for them.

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  3. Dear Gods I read the headline wrong & thought it was SNP lead over Tory at 6%. Scrolled to figures fast & much relief :D

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    1. Marco Biagi‏@MarcoGBiagi 3 hours ago

      Britain electing the communist geography teacher is more plausible when his opponent is a Tesco Value Margaret Thatcher tribute android.

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  4. Nat si Cybernats accusing people who do not support the Nazis as rapeclaue supporters.
    Vile lot the Nat sis.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Love, Love, Love.
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      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
  5. Irish Times has poll up. 43-37. Agrees with your info.

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  6. I have to say, I've only been able to vote in 3 General Elections with this one my 4th, and I've voted Lib Dem twice and SNP once. I grew up in Mundell's constituency so my vote in 2005 didn't really matter, and then moved to Edinburgh (North & Leith), Lib Dems close in 2010 but SNP win in 2015. If it wasn't for the extra dynamic in Scotland of the Independence Issue (and I'm for it) which means voting SNP, then Labour and Corbyn would be getting my vote in a heartbeat, the more the campaign has gone on and the more I see of Corbyn the more I believe he's actually got a point.

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    1. You cleary have no working class background and will vote for your immediate fancy.

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    2. Quite the opposite, brought up in a very working class family, although wouldn't describe myself as that now.

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    3. So what point do you consider Corbyn has?

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    4. GWC2 is about as working class as David Cameron

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  7. The Tories are going to "relaunch" their campaign. Poor TM seems to be a bit out of her depth this time :(

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  8. Corbyn's leadership may just spare SLAB, who have always loathed him, from total oblivion.

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    1. I don't see why, he's still showing as being significantly less popular than his party or his policies.

      With a better leader I reckon they'd be in with a shout. As it is, we're still looking at a 3rd(ish) term for a Govt with a very shaky leader, and she's actually increasing their majority. That's not good.

      The fact that 'not getting annihilated' is considered to be good news is an indication of how far they've fallen under Corbyn, and most of their recent recovery seems to be more down to May cocking up their manifesto than any great enthusiasm for Corbyn as an alternative.

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  9. Hi James.

    Prof Robertson reporting on an Opinium Poll out today putting SNP on 46% and SLAB / Tories nip n tuck around 25%? Any knowledge on this one? Can't found the source anywhere.

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    1. There isn't an Opinium poll out today. There's a GB-wide one every Saturday, so it might be the Scottish subsample from the most recent one. The only full-scale Scottish poll we've had recently is SurveyMonkey.

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    2. chattering twit classMay 30, 2017 at 12:36 AM

      But what does Brian Taylor say?????

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  10. Paddy Power reckons odds-on winners in seats as SNP 46, Tories 6, Lib Dem 5, Labour 1, and SNP & Tories equally 5/6 for Moray. Difficult to believe the Lib Dem 5, or that any Tory 'surge' could be big enough to defeat Robertson and Wishart. But 75% of seats wd still be cracking victory.

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    1. It would be a cracking victory but we all know it will be painted as a defeat, hard to imagine 5 Lib Dem Seats though I actually would put money on Labour winning more seats than the Lib Dems as neither Rennie or Farron has had anything but a horrific campaign.

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    2. 5 LDs in Scotland seems a stretch. If you mean for the whole UK maybe it's plausible.

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  11. If you look at the figures from the last poll - http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Final-GMB-GE2017-III-Tables-190517TOCH-1c0d3h4.pdf - the 3% gain/drop could be a lot to do with rounding.

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    1. Unfortunately the Tories are ahead in the Scottish subsample, which explains the lower "others" share. However, as Anon points out below, Survation phone subsamples are particularly tiny. I'd be more worried if it was Labour doing unusually well, because that's where the greater threat seems to come from at the moment (the votes that can potentially go to the Tories have probably already gone).

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    2. Yes - I see that now, thanks.

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  12. The Scotland subsample size of only about 75 contacts and only 51 LV in this Survation poll is far too small to be reliable.

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    1. I think every sub-sample is far too small to be reliable!

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  13. From what I can see only 16 of the Scottish likely to vote sub sample (51) recalled voting SNP sub last time so that seems to explain oddity.

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  14. Britain Elects @britainelects

    Westminster voting intention CON: 45% (-1) LAB: 33% (+1) LD: 8% (-) UKIP: 5% (-) GRN: 3% (+1) (via @ICMResearch / 26-29 May) Chgs w/ 26May3:06 pm · 30 May 2017

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