Saturday, April 29, 2017

Your anti-Tory tactical voting guide for the 59 Scottish constituencies at the 2017 general election

As Marcia has pointed out, a lot of tactical voting at the forthcoming general election will be aimed at keeping the Tories out, or at least minimising the size of their overall majority.  One handy side-benefit of the current polarisation of politics in Scotland is that it makes anti-Tory tactical voting extremely straightforward - if you live in any constituency that the Conservatives might conceivably win, the rational option is to vote SNP.  No other party can stop the Tories in any of their target seats.  However, where there may still be some confusion is over exactly which seats are competitive enough to make tactical voting necessary, and which seats the Tories can't realistically win.

In the hope of clearing the mists slightly, I've drawn up the following lists.  Feel free to share them with the Lib Dem or Labour supporter in your life.  It goes without saying that the advice on tactical voting only applies if your Number 1 objective is to stop the Tories.

*  *  *

There is a VERY HIGH RISK of the Tories winning the following 5 constituencies.  If you live in one of them, you are advised to vote tactically for the SNP.

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Dumfries and Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
East Renfrewshire
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

*  *  *

There is a SUBSTANTIAL RISK of the Tories winning the following 3 constituencies.  If you live in one of them, you are advised to vote tactically for the SNP.

Aberdeen South
Moray
Perth and North Perthshire

*  *  *

There is a MODERATE RISK of the Tories winning the following 5 constituencies.  If you live in one of them, you are advised to vote tactically for the SNP.

Angus
East Lothian
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh South-West
Stirling

*  *  *

There is an OUTSIDE CHANCE of the Tories winning the following 8 constituencies.  If you live in one of them, you are advised to err on the side of caution and vote tactically for the SNP.

Argyll and Bute
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Banff and Buchan
East Dunbartonshire
Edinburgh West
Gordon
North-East Fife
Ochil and South Perthshire

*  *  *

There is NO REALISTIC PROSPECT of the Tories winning the following 39 constituencies.  If you live in one of them, there is no need to vote tactically, and you should feel free to vote for your own preferred party.

Aberdeen North
Airdrie and Shotts
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Central Ayrshire
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
Dundee East 
Dundee West
Dunfermline and West Fife
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow
Edinburgh East
Edinburgh North and Leith
Falkirk
Glasgow Central
Glasgow East
Glasgow North
Glasgow North-East
Glasgow North-West
Glasgow South
Glasgow South-West
Glenrothes
Inverclyde
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
Lanark and Hamilton East
Linlithgow and East Falkirk
Livingston
Midlothian
Motherwell and Wishaw
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
North Ayrshire and Arran
Orkney and Shetland
Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Paisley and Renfrewshire South
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
West Dunbartonshire

57 comments:

  1. Perth and Ochils I would say fairly high risk. Big tory area offset by labour clackmannan. Labour voters will need to vote tasmina to keep tory out.

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    1. As far as I know, the Tory area is more than offset by the working-class parts. I almost had that one in the 'no risk' category, but I thought I'd better be cautious.

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    2. Don't you believe it. Strong no at indyref. Tasmina came thru middle last time between Gordon banks and perth tory.unionists will go to tory this time. Holyrood vote was closer.

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    3. Which Holyrood constituency are you referring to? Clackmannanshire and Dunblane wasn't particularly close.

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    4. Rape Clause Ruth and her Pension Stealing ToriesApril 29, 2017 at 10:33 AM

      David Aitchison‏ @aitchison_david 11h hours ago

      Ruth Davidson facing investigation for campaigning from her Scottish Parliament office.

      Delete
  2. Ne fife also under big risk from lib dems. Again labour voters will need to switch snp to keep the tory lackeys out. Will help if tory hubris makes them fight for seat and split unionist vote.

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  3. I think that you are being too optimistic there James. I'm afraid that the 'High Risk' category ought to be much bigger. I can see the Tories either winning or getting extremely close in eg. Edinburgh South and Edinburgh South West. I'd even put Edinburgh North and Leith in the "Outside Chance" category.
    The threat from the Lib Dems is big in four constituencies (all 4 being so obvious they don't need spelled out here).
    The silver lining is that I'm 99% certain that Ian Murray is history.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As far as Lib Dem targets are concerned, this list isn't intended to cover that - it's for anti-Tory tactical voting only. I'd probably have Edinburgh South in the 'substantial risk' category if it wasn't for the fact that Labour have a case to make that Tory supporters should lend their votes again.

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  4. Shame about those north east seats, I had come to think of that part of the country as an SNP stronghold. The borders have a particularly high number of English-born and also don't get Scottish news, so less of a Tory surprise there.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. It's more complex than that here in the Borders - many English support Indy, many locals don't - but, yes, it's a high risk area.
      We were lucky that Calum Kerr got in by a whisker here last time, next door were unlucky that Mundell got in by a whisker there. Both could have gone either way from the butterfly effect.

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    2. The North East has been subject to a complete hammering the past couple of years. From the press and journal, oil downturn (making SNP and yes voters look like idiots) NHS Grampian issues, education issues and rurally the cap payment system issues.

      Not to mention the difference on opinion on EU with regards to the many many retirees up here and the fishermen.

      Its why I think Nicola should tell people they can vote no in another referendum but giving the Tories licence to do whatever they want shouldn't be allowed through their vote...

      Banff and Buchan, gordon and I think moray will go SNP again. Angus Robertson has a massive profile

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  5. If Edinburgh North and Leith falls to the Tories then the rest of the country is f**ked. I can't see this happening though based on the history of this constituency. Leith voted yes in 2014 I've been told!

    If anyone could take it from SNP then it would be Labour but they would need to rely on tactical votes from Tories and Lib Dem. They can't rely on well received local candidates like Malcolm Chisholm anymore.

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  6. Replies
    1. Ah... the West Lothian question. So good you asked it twice.

      Delete
  7. Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh ward is missing from the list?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Most of the other West Lothian wards are missing too!

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    2. These aren't local election wards - they're general election constituencies.

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  8. Only a vote for Labour can remove the two Tory parties from Scotland.....

    ReplyDelete
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    1. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

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  9. Vote UKIP you know it makes sense

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  10. If you can't vote UKIP vote tory to save the union

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We all know what a Tory shill you are, and finally you admit it.

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    2. Look knobend impersonator stop answering your own posts. I made a post at 11:12am.
      I note the ex wife of Humza has called the Nat sis a Cult. It will be a slow process but this Cult will die eventually.

      Delete
    3. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetApril 29, 2017 at 9:42 PM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    4. Look knobend impersonator I made a post at 12.02pm

      Delete
    5. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  11. Vote tory to protect the NHS and mobility scooters

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    Replies
    1. Awa' an' euthanise yersel', ya plum!

      This is the type of person who'll protect OUR NHS: https://itisintruthnotforglory.wordpress.com/

      Delete
  12. Sturgeon is NOT nationalist ,you cannot be a globalist and a nationalist at the same time.Nationalists are hated by the masses ie Le Pen,Trump who are avowed nationalists.I await one person in the universe to disprove this point,it will never happen.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. You sure got us there

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    2. So why is she the leader of the Jock Nat si party if she is not a nationalist ya knobend! Change the name to Jock Internationalist nat si party.
      You are as thick as a sticky insect.

      Delete
    3. So why is she the leader of the Jock Nat si party if she is not a nationalist ya knobend! Change the name to Jock Internationalist nat si party.
      You are as thick as a sticky insect.

      Delete
    4. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  13. It is Scotland against the anti Scottish Tories whatever colour they are hiding under. Be that BLiS or the Fib Dooms.

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  14. It is also essential to get people to the polls, especially younger voters who tend to be less likely to vote. Make sure any family and friends who are SNP supporters actually do vote!

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  15. Looking at the Scotland sub set of tonight's poll for the Observer the SNP figures have improved to 50% (usual caveats etc) from last week's 43%. Tories dipping.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Hideaway May's National FrontApril 29, 2017 at 9:50 PM

      The gap between Hideaway May and Corbyn's Labour is now less than the gap between the SNP and the tories in scotland that the far-right BritNat yoons were calling a catastophe and disaster for the SNP.

      Be amusing to see them spin their way out of that now.

      Delete
  16. Teresa May voted as sexiest politician in Glorious Britain by the members of my local lodge GSTQ WATP

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oor Ludge is the Knights an we do not allow wummin or Jews in. Proddies verboten. Only good devoit West of Scotland Catholics who go home and beat their wives up. We can offer expertise and advise on filling in benefit forms...

      Delete
    2. Oor Ludge is the Knights an we do not allow wummin or Jews in. Proddies verboten. Only good devoit West of Scotland Catholics who go home and beat their wives up. We can offer expertise and advise on filling in benefit forms...

      Delete
    3. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    4. Teresa May is a nice bit of English Totty. Knickerless is like a wee gnome sitting on the compost pile in the gerden.

      Delete
    5. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic, sexist and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  17. Hideaway May's National FrontApril 29, 2017 at 10:30 PM

    Reaction to Theresa May refusing questions from journalists (even tory papers and tabloids) and instead plumping for a no-holds-barred hard hitting interview with.. leader of the tories in scotland, Ruth Davidson.
    LMFAO!


    Phil Hudson‏ @Philmsh79 23m

    She's a f***ing parody of a PM. Even Tories should be ashamed of this. (But then they are utterly shameless)

    ReplyDelete
  18. Lesbians & Tea cakesApril 29, 2017 at 10:35 PM

    tory lead over labour is getting smaller

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lesbian, is that a dyke oan a bike?

      Delete
    2. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic, sexist and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  19. Seems to be a new full Scotland poll in Telegraph, but they only report the Con and Lab figures (27% and 16%). The SNP figure must have been too good to publish! ;)


    ReplyDelete
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    1. I think that's the Scottish subsample from the Britain-wide ORB poll.

      Delete
  20. Seems to be a new full Scotland poll in Telegraph, but they only report the Con and Lab figures (27% and 16%). The SNP figure must have been too good to publish! ;)


    ReplyDelete
  21. Mr and Mrs Labour.comApril 30, 2017 at 1:40 AM

    We never did like that wee fat Ruth. Very odd shape.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Seems to be a new full Scotland poll in Telegraph, but they only report the Con and Lab figures (27% and 16%). The SNP figure must have been too good to publish! ;)


    ReplyDelete
  23. Do the maths people... in the event Scotland does go indy, all the sweeteners and socially just policies/promises of the SNP will be out the window. I am genuinely concerned that if this happens, there will be riots on the streets when indy fans realise the depth of the SNPs deception. There. Is. Not. Enough. Money. to support all the organs of state in an iScotland. I would vote indy if I could see one properly costed and feasible plan. The SNP are duping us and taking us for fools.

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    1. I have to say you don't come across as a very reluctant 'no'.

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