Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Snap!

Apologies for not having posted anything about the snap election yet - I've had a few things on today, including a live interview on the London-based radio station Voice of Islam.  It had been pre-scheduled for a few days, so just by chance I found myself talking about a wider range of subjects than expected!

Here are a few quick thoughts -

* Theresa May has helpfully resolved any lingering doubts in SNP ranks over whether it might have been a good idea to hold a snap Holyrood election with the specific purpose of obtaining an even more emphatic mandate for an independence referendum (as opposed to doing it to obtain an outright mandate for independence).  We now have our snap election without Nicola Sturgeon even taking the hit for dragging people to the polls needlessly.  Presumably the SNP will continue to forcefully make the point that the mandate for an indyref is already there, but they'll get to have it both ways by putting another explicit commitment in their Westminster manifesto, which in all likelihood will be endorsed by another convincing majority in terms of seats.

* It's probable that the SNP will shed at least a few seats.  They hit a 'sweet spot' in 2015 when the unionist vote was split in a particularly favourable way, but that's no longer the case.  Limited losses to the Tories (and perhaps to the Lib Dems) are to be expected, so it's important that we don't allow the narrative of what the SNP "need to do" to run away with itself.  Even 38 seats out of 59 would be an emphatic victory...but it'll hopefully be a lot better than that.

* Jeremy Corbyn's days as Labour leader are almost certainly drawing to a premature close, but it's also highly probable that he will now lead his party into a general election, and will not share the fate of Iain Duncan Smith, who didn't even get the chance to make his case to the electorate.  It'll be genuinely fascinating to see how he gets on, and also to discover whether the diehard Labour rebels will be able to put their egos aside in the interests of saving the party.  Ah hae ma doots.

* The loss of Corbyn may be the biggest negative outcome of this election for the pro-independence movement.  It's hard to see how any new Labour leader could be any less popular than Corbyn, although we certainly shouldn't exclude the possibility that Labour will choose the wrong successor.  Some of the names that are being bandied about do not exactly inspire a huge amount of confidence.

55 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. Bumblefuck Brexit and the kipper tory incompetentsApril 18, 2017 at 6:42 PM

      Eoin Clarke‏ @LabourEoin 2 hours

      Crown Prosecution Service have just released a statement. The General Election will not prevent them taking charges for Tory Electoral Fraud

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    2. But those charges wont lead to by-elections.

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    3. Well not now because Parliament will be dissolved in a couple of weeks. However, if the same candidates are selected and the CPS find cases that require answering then it could result in by-elections down the line.

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  2. I just don't understand why Corbyn has accepted this GE demand from May. It's the worst possible time for Labour. He would have been much better saying "now is not the time" and waiting around a year until the Brexit disaster unfolds

    Why vote with the Tories now when they will almost certainly hand them a much larger majority. I just don't get the logic behind it. I know he'd take grief but what's new

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    1. Farron's Ostrich FactionApril 18, 2017 at 8:49 PM

      Sue Perkins‏Verified account @sueperkins 1h

      Tim Farron on C4 news failing to clarify his views on the gay community. 'We're all sinners'.

      It's 2017.

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    2. It looks cowardly for an opposition party to block an election. Here's your big chance! What? No? Too scared? The media would roast them even worse than usual.

      Besides, the fixed term parliaments act can be repealed by a simple majority of MPs.

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    3. Bumblefuck Brexit and the kipper tory incompetentsApril 18, 2017 at 11:10 PM

      Jim Douglas‏ @jimdou77 53m

      @Oldfirmfacts1 Levein delighted as Theresa May's refusal to debate Corbyn means his 4-6-0 is no longer the most cowardly act this century.

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  3. Angus Robertson says we have an extreme Conservative Government. And meanwhile the Nat sis carry out Thatcherite policies and refuse to tax the rich. The Nat sis need to change their tune.

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    1. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandApril 18, 2017 at 6:49 PM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist Neo-Nazi hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister

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  4. Red Tory Blue Tory Kipper Tory Yoon ToryApril 18, 2017 at 6:48 PM

    "It's hard to see how any new Labour leader could be any less popular than Corbyn"

    The last shambolic Labour 'Leadership' contest would suggest otherwise.

    The thrilling excitement of Angela Eagle continually failing to put her hat in the ring despite saying otherwise.

    The jawdropping climax when whatsisname Smith got his arse handed to him.

    Heady stuff.

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  5. I think it's too early yet to predict the outcome. True, Labour looks to be in disarray but this is no run of the mill general election. People really don't want it and it does smack of opportunism to most unbiased commentators and most of the vox pops I've seen. Throw in discontented remainders and we have a glorious mix that no pollsters have tested.

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    1. Oh, I think there's a lot of doubt over the size of the Tory majority. But under Corbyn this is an unwinnable election for Labour, even if Theresa May has a disastrous campaign.

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    2. Side splitting laughter from Knickerless saying the Tories will move further to the right....Can that be further than the Nat sis!

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    3. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandApril 18, 2017 at 7:11 PM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist Neo-Nazi hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister

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    4. As you say it's unwinnable for Labour but that doesn't necessarily mean a win for the Tories. A win for them, and especially May, has to be a substantially larger majority and the death of Labour. Winning a few more seats with Lib Dems getting a few more wouldn't justify a snap election and would weaken her as leader.

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    5. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 18, 2017 at 7:13 PM

      Mark Alexander‏ @TheGreatBaldy 1h

      And where are the Tories going to come from? Judging by the Holyrood intake their talent poll has all the intellectual depth of a petri dish

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    6. But in way it could backfire: big labor loss now means corbyn out sooner but only core mp's left. Also, it means in next election labor will have clean shot. Thats two, sorry.

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    7. The incompetence of the out of touch westminster establishmentApril 18, 2017 at 7:31 PM

      You speak as if it was a choice freely made and some kind of tactical move on the part of the tories Alan.

      Unfolding events at the Crown Prosecution Service (which were highlighted on here long ago as the potential trigger for yet more jawdropping westminster chaos we see today) indicate this is the usual tory arrogance, incompetence and criminality coming back to haunt them. As it invariably always does.

      May is surrounded by hardline Kipper-tory ultras and the remains of the Cameroons. Both have been squaring up for a fight for months and both sides are willing to use any chaos imaginable to push their own advantage and vision of Brexit.

      Chaos like suddenly losing a significant number of MPs to yet another expenses scandal.

      That also means trying to ensure May will be the 'fall-guy' when the time is right and the dust settles, not themselves.

      All this is ongoing while Boris, the treacherous little Gove, Fox, Davies and all the rest sharpen their daggers to put in her back at the optimal time when the shit really starts to hit the fan. Just like they did so amusingly to Thatcher.

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    8. Gwc2 you hate this dont u. raggin inside keep tapping away u can do nothing about independence, slipping away

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    9. I can vote however Nat sis do not accept the vote they do not like. This can lead to violence. Silly boy!

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    10. Bumblefuck Brexit and the kipper tory incompetentsApril 18, 2017 at 9:30 PM

      Jamie McGeever‏Verified account @ReutersJamie 2h

      Theresa May - last year a Remainer, now leading Brexit charge, today calling a snap election - accuses opponents of "political game-playing"

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  6. The incompetence of the out of touch westminster establishmentApril 18, 2017 at 7:06 PM

    Corbyn had already started to try and entrench his own vision of Labour into certain constituencies, some of the PLP and the wider movement (such as it is) including the unions.

    So when he goes he will not go quietly and his absolute top priority will be to make certain the Blairites will not just swan back in and take over again.

    I expect even more Labour 'fun and games' than usual around precisely which Labour MPs gets support in what area of the country from the Leadership. As well as some frantic back room deals to ensure a Corbyn friendly candidate is in the ideal position after the election.

    Labour are still fundamentally split and, just like with the tory party, papering over the cracks will only work for so long before it all falls apart again.

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  7. The Great Tory Election Expenses Scandal 2017 £££££££April 18, 2017 at 7:10 PM

    alex thomson‏Verified account @alextomo 7m

    BREAKING: The CPS have told Channel 4 News tonight that they are considering charges against more than 30 individuals. #electionexpenses

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  8. Why not stand on a ticket of UDI

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    1. because we already have a mandate for indyref2

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    2. But not an outright mandate for independence, so that answers a question that wasn't asked. Obviously talk of "UDI" is unhelpful, though.

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    3. Hey James your Derek Mckay has just used the adopted key words from the Nat sis, 'right wing'. And he talks about austerity but they refuse to tax the rich. Lamentable bastards the Nat sis.

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    4. If you win the majority of seats in Scotland, then you win the election and therefore can declare "UDI", I do not understand why it would be unhelpful to push this point. It is easier to win by this means than by a referendum.

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    5. James - Consider this - Why play the rules with regards a referendum, did the Irish have one when they gained independence from the UK - NO. You win a majority of seats you win independence

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    6. As I've stated many times, I am entirely open to the possibility of using an election rather than a referendum to obtain an outright mandate for independence, and if Theresa May remains obstinate I think that should be seriously considered. But what I am not open to is the concept of "UDI". We are not Rhodesia.

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    7. James, Harold Wilson did not interfere in the Rhodesian UDI.

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    8. Apologies if I haven't picked up on your previous comments, with regards elections etc.
      Though I am struggling with this opposition to UDI - Is it the terminology or something else ?
      By the way at the next branch meeting I will push Mr Gray on the exact same point

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    9. nobody serious talks about UDI
      it's a tiny number on the extreme fringes who do
      it's simply not an issue

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    10. Why do you say that ?
      I also don't understand the point you are trying to make
      It's really quite simple
      You win the majority of seats
      You win the election
      Declare Independence

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    11. > James, Harold Wilson did not interfere in the Rhodesian UDI.
      Harold Wilson was MP from 64-70 and 74-76
      Britain operated the Beira patrol between 66 and 75, so that happened on his watch and then others. And other sanctions, none of which brought Rhodesia to its knees. Wilson didn't interfere militarily: he had his hands full with Northern Ireland.

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    12. Can I also point you to the side link and to Craig Murray's latest point

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    13. The incompetence of the out of touch westminster establishmentApril 18, 2017 at 9:28 PM

      "he had his hands full with Northern Ireland."

      A timely reminder that there remains a situation in NI that the westminster bubble twits seem utterly oblivious to as they flail around chaotically.

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    14. The British government should just leave it to the EU to impose a border between the Republic and N Ireland, if it wants to. At least the target for the terrorism wont be British troops this time.

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    15. Lol - the 'UDI' chestnut again! Can't happen. Wont happen. Anyone who expects the SNP to put it in their manifesto is detached from reality. Even they aren't that dumb.

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    16. Carlotta Colostomybag PredictsApril 18, 2017 at 11:08 PM

      "The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign."

      'Aldo'

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  9. Looks like the southern 3 seats in Scotland will go to the tories, at the very least. They could also grab a few in the north east, if their support levels are at the upper end of what is realistically possible. Lib dems will hold the Northern Isles and grab one or two mainland seats. Things don't look well for Labour - though they could benefit from tactical voting and disillusionment with certain SNP MPs.

    What is really striking is the geographic size of some of the seats that could flip blue or orange. Makes the political map look a bit less one sided and a bit more integrated with the UK, should the tories and lib dems perform at the upper end of expectations.

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    1. Awww what a shameApril 18, 2017 at 7:37 PM

      alex thomson‏Verified account @alextomo 7m

      BREAKING: The CPS have told Channel 4 News tonight that they are considering charges against more than 30 individuals. #electionexpenses

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    2. Carlotta Colostomybag PredictsApril 18, 2017 at 7:39 PM

      "The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign."

      'Aldo'

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  10. The Great Tory Election Expenses Scandal 2017 £££££££April 18, 2017 at 7:42 PM

    hairysteve20‏ @hairysteve20 2 minutes ago

    Why #GE2017 now?

    Twenty four Tory MPs in the frame for #electionexpenses prosecution.

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  11. The Great Tory Election Expenses Scandal 2017 £££££££April 18, 2017 at 7:43 PM

    phil dilks‏ @fairdealphil 4 minutes ago

    Will Tories under investigation for #electionexpenses #fraud in last election be allowed to stand in this one? Surely not? #election2017

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  12. Who said 2017 would be boring they lied.

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  13. Mr Grainge. You have a strange sense of history. The Smith regime declared UDI 1965.
    The Troubles in NI started circa August 1969.
    Wilson wanted rid of Rhodesia and did not favour the White State. However the British Army could have got rid of Smith if ordered as they could have wiped out the IRA.

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    1. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

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  14. Im riding the goat tonight

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    1. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

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  15. Tomorrow the Labour Party is going to vote for its extinction not just in Scotland but England and Wales as well.

    They will do this in full knowledge that the CPS is possibly going to wipe out the Tory majority in Westmidden. Political incompetence of the highest order.

    Ironic that Mays opposition is for the most part coming from the Tory dominated HoL and not Labour. The racist mob in Ingerland and other Brit sectarians will give May a thumping majority and there wont be a thing the HoL can do about it.

    The Yoons in Scotland will bend over and take it up the ass but they wont be getting paid to do it like the Lairdies.

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  16. So you're saying we should just try and get another mandate on top of the one we have already, and keep our fingers crossed that a May with an increased majority is going to change her mind and sign off on an independence referendum?

    Sorry, but I can't see that happening.

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