Monday, March 6, 2017

This will shock you, but it turns out the Express weren't telling the truth about that BMG poll yesterday

So you may have seen claims in the Express yesterday - and repeated on TV by Ruth Davidson - that a new BMG poll had found a 2-1 majority against an independence referendum taking place "before 2019" (after Don't Knows were excluded), that this marked a "sharp" decline in support for a referendum since January, and that this sudden "change" was proof of "referendum fatigue" setting in.  If so, you'll now undoubtedly faint with amazement at the discovery that all three of those claims were untrue.

It was always obvious that some sort of leading question must have been asked, because a) the results weren't easily reconcilable with other extremely recent polls, and b) the new poll was commissioned by an "Edinburgh-based Brexit campaigner" with a very open anti-independence and anti-SNP agenda.  As it turns out, though, the date 2019 wasn't even mentioned in the question, so that part of the reporting was a complete and utter lie.  This is what was actually asked -

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? "A referendum on Scottish independence should not be triggered until the UK & EU have completed their Brexit negotiations"

The plural in the word "statements" may look odd at first glance, but that indicates other questions were asked that haven't been published yet (and perhaps never will be if they produced less convenient answers for Mr Brexit of Edinburgh).

As you can see, the statement presented to respondents could hardly be more leading.  It's deliberately designed to be extremely easy for supporters of a referendum (and indeed supporters of independence itself) to agree with, because the word "until" implicitly accepts that a referendum is definitely coming at some point - although of course you would never have guessed that from the reporting yesterday.  It doesn't mention a date, and therefore will have left supporters of a referendum feeling that it's not necessarily suggesting a postponement of much length.  And most importantly of all, it's framed in the negative (ie. "should not") which means that supporters of a referendum are being challenged to actively disagree with a statement that's falling over itself to sound reasonable and modest in its aspirations.  If respondents had been warned that their agreement with the statement would be reported as outright opposition to a referendum, I guarantee you that the results would have been totally different.

The question wording is also radically different from the one BMG asked in January, which was as follows -

"In 2014 there was an Independence Referendum in Scotland. In your opinion, should there be another Independence Referendum held prior to Brexit negotiations being concluded between the UK and the EU?"

As you'll have noted, on that occasion respondents were asked a straight question, rather than being challenged to disagree with a negative statement. The results of the two polls are therefore not comparable, and the claim in the Express that there has been a "sharp fall" in support for an independence referendum since January is utter garbage.

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53 comments:

  1. Express in telling lies and being anti-Scottish shock!

    JK Plagiarist telling lies and being anti-Scottish shock!

    Turns out the revolting claire heuchan is in fact just another bigoted Britnat. Hates Scots, men and White people.

    According to her Kris Donald wasn't murdered by being kidnapped, tortured and then burned to death by a gang of Asians in a racist attack. BECAUSE HE WAS WHITE!

    Will the SMSM be silent about an obvious racist? Is JK Rowling really Brian Spanner? Is JK Rowling's mask slipping and exposing her BNP soul? Answers next week.



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  2. It would take a heart of stone not to wet yourself laughing at Angela Haggerty. Her female Irishness is trumped by a lardy black dyke. GIRUY and let that be a lesson never to trust a feminist.

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    1. Let that be a lesson never to trust a Unionist.

      Delete
  3. It's got nothing to do with the express being racist propaganda merchants, or maybe it does. But has anybody else noticed that harry potter is just a war between two different sets of racial supremacists?

    The good guys we cheer on for 7 books practice Apartheid, display sneering contempt for anybody not like them and have special words for their niggers, I mean Muggles.

    Oddly enough the authoress of said books was attacked for not having any prominent ethnic minorities and insisted on filming in Glorious Britain with British actors by God! Scratch a britnat and Nick Griffin lurks beneath the skin.

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  4. Referendum/Voting Fatigue is the latest fashionable illness to dissuade people from voting

    https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2017/03/02/referendumvoting-fatigue/

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 6, 2017 at 8:29 PM

      Goodness me four comments without a mention of Ms Cox.
      The Express is a good tool against the Nat si propoganda. And obviously it works thus the mention.
      I am sure the family of Kris Donald will be impressed by the mention of his
      name. At least Moh Sarwar recognised it was a rascist attack while others buried their heads.
      e.

      Delete
    2. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetMarch 6, 2017 at 11:31 PM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    3. It's a right pity he won't take his meds... something far wrong there.

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    4. Oh but he does . His male nurse gives it to him every night !

      A total welt of a man

      Delete
  5. Wow. I knew the msm was biased but really? I guess they're scared to show that Indy might happen, in case it increases support for indyref 2. There's a good article on why polls matter (and how they are manipulated) here http://bit.ly/2mbZT4Z. I just hope most people can see through this (actually bother to look through the headlines to see the data)

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    Replies
    1. Don't go to the link above - it's not what it says it is! James, you're doing great work on this blog, but you've got to do something about your comments section...

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  6. So the Brit Nats lied again. I might faint if they ever actually told the truth just once. Okay I know forget it as it isn't going to happen ever.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 6, 2017 at 9:01 PM

      You will need the services of the NHS paramedics when you lose another referendum albeit it if youz jokes hiv ra bottle tae call it.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2March 6, 2017 at 9:30 PM

      The Express is my go to paper for up to date no nonsense unbiased news and opinion. not like the pro jocko Fash Nat sis Scotchman

      Delete
    3. NHS AnnouncementMarch 6, 2017 at 9:30 PM

      There is a person who need his medication. If you see or hear from him please let us know. He contributes under the name Glasgow Working Class 2. He is nuts so please ignore him.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2March 6, 2017 at 10:20 PM

      Jock Nat sis to announce ref er en dumb tomorrow according to the Daily Express. Apparantly the announcement will be welcomed by the Scottish British loyalist community. Go for it they say.
      Stop, it is false information by the Jock Nat sis who are shiting themselves.

      Delete
    5. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetMarch 6, 2017 at 11:32 PM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2March 6, 2017 at 11:47 PM

      Cox grave digger pervert.

      Delete
    7. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  7. The 35-word final sentence can be boiled down to three of its constituent words - "Express" and "utter garbage".

    If fact, that is all you need to say about the whole rag.

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  8. The irony is that according to the Express, there are 0% against an Indy Ref after the negotiations are complete (but therefore still before Brexit).

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  9. The fact that the Yoons are now commissioning dodgy polls to get the answer they need. Tells you all you need to know. They are terrified of actually having another referendum. But you can fool yourself, much harder to lie on someone's behalf and expect the rest to believe you.

    We had a poll in 2015 and returned 56 nationalist mps. We had another and returned a nationalist majority in Holywood. You don't have a referendum based on public opinion polls. You have one because it's necessary to answer a question to big for government to answer on its own. In other words you ask the people something you need to know. You don't ask permission from the public whether you are allowed to ask the question. That's what elections are for.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 6, 2017 at 10:44 PM

      Fashman how do you think the youth who voted in the 2014 referendum will vote when they grow up and take a real look at you narrowback fascists? Who offer medieval hatred of your English neighbour!

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2March 6, 2017 at 11:17 PM

      SCOTTISH Labour suffered a catastrophic drop in donations last year, hamstringing its ability to fight the Holyrood election, its accounts have revealed.

      Published ahead of this weekend’s conference in Perth, the figures show Kezia Dugdale’s first full year as leader was the party’s worst for donations since 2009.

      In 2015, the party had donations of just under £600,00; in 2016 it was just over £100,000.

      And after a £98,000 surplus in 2015, Scottish Labour ended 2016 with a deficit of £104,000.

      If you are a true socialist like me you will give your donations to Ruth Davidson a true believer is our glorious union GSTQ WATP

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 6, 2017 at 11:38 PM

      Who cares? The Jock Nat si SS will not win a referendum and split the Union.
      So dwell in your discomfort. You could go to Nova Scotia and be a goofy.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2March 7, 2017 at 12:25 AM

      Nicola cares.

      ToryLeader Ruth Davidson said she would also bring back prescription charges and change the concessionary travel scheme for over-60s to make up for the £560million tax cut.

      WATP GSTQ

      Delete
    5. Glasgow Working Class 2March 7, 2017 at 1:01 AM

      Bears in the West are meeting this Friday 6a John Street; G1 1JQ; Glasgow; Underground Bar.

      Wear your Gers tops for free entry and dont forget its a leather chaps night.

      GSTQ WATP

      Delete
    6. I used to pay 40p for a bus journey now I pay nuffin. We muppets can afford to pay. The private bus companies are raking it in from the taxpayer. But of course the Nat sis get donations from bus companies.
      Nationalise the buses with no compensation.

      Delete
    7. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    8. Bus driver are you Hector only bus drivers use that muppet name to describe people with passes

      Delete
  10. Express and truth are an oxymoron.
    When it comes to reporting on matters Scottish,none of the London bubble press appear to be capable of objectivity.
    They get blinded by hysterical xenophobic rage and just say the first thing that comes to mind e.g. Scotland bad,EU bad etc etc.
    Olde English press pack saying,'Never let the truth get in the way of a good story'.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Andrew Wilson Nat si spokesman says the Nat sis deceived the Scots over oil revenus during the referendum. Who are the liars!

    ReplyDelete
  12. http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/scots-opposed-second-referendum/ has links to the results. Note that they indicate this is the second time, at least, such a poll has been held.

    Note also that no mention is made of adjusting for country of origin.

    Even if you take the 51% with a pinch of salt it's worth scanning along to the bit about Yes/No. If it were accurate then the majority in Scotland voted Yes. And nearly a majority will do so again. They've not produced any results for a 16+ category despite polling. Nor have they adjusted for country of origin.

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    1. I've looked and I can't see any reference to it being the second time. If they do say that, it's almost certainly a reference to the January poll which used a radically different question.

      You're correct that BMG don't appear to weight by country of birth, which goes against what has become accepted as good practice by most polling firms.

      Delete
    2. Mentioning country of origin sounds rather Natzi.... Maybe blood test and DNA should be considered! Even lie detectors if you supported the Idiot BP Charlie O.

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    3. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  13. On the spreadsheet via the link to the data there are various percentages flagged with up and down arrows. That's indicative of there being a previous set of results.

    Either they've asked two questions and, dishonestly (?) , merged the results or they didn't release the previous set as it wasn't in the interest of the company that commissioned it.

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  14. I stand corrected. Looking at the data I can see that it simply indicates a percentage above or below average.

    However follow the link to data on this page and you might find the other questions.

    http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/majority-scots-say-public-service-delivery-priority/

    To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? “After 10 years in office, the SNP Government has overseen significant improvements in public services in Scotland”

    "To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? “Nicola Sturgeon should prioritise improving public services over pursuing another independence referendum"" "

    To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? “Scotland's political elite is more talk than action when it comes to dealing with the problems facing Scots”

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  15. The Anonymous pervert gravedigger who continuously mentions the dead Jo Cox needs to be interviewed by the police.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetMarch 7, 2017 at 8:10 PM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  16. The repetitive one is a loser thus the repetition of worn out lies.
    The Nat sis are on a hiding thus your continuous lies and deceit.
    Up yer kilts losers.
    The Union will prevail the NAT SIS will lose. Get it up ye fash. Slight snigger.

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    1. Compulsive lying disorder is not actually a documented psychiatric disorder.
      Instead, it's a term used to describe what may be a symptom of another psychiatric disorder
      such as borderline personality disorder, narcissism or bipolar disorder.
      Not all people who are compulsive liars suffer from a psychiatric illness,
      but there is usually an underlying reason for the behavior.
      According to Psychology Today, people with psychiatric disorders lie for a variety of reasons.

      People will sometimes lie because they want something they wouldn't be able to get otherwise.
      The lying continues because the person craves the attention and thrill of getting away with it
      or in an attempt to manipulate the victim of the lies even further.
      Sometimes, they use "gas lighting," a technique where they convince others that their realities
      are incorrect and only the liar knows what "really happened."

      Delete
    2. wee jimmy English fae ScotlandMarch 7, 2017 at 9:08 PM

      You have a compulsion to impersonate others and not a mind of your own. But that goes with being a narrow minded Nazi. Oh and loser.

      Delete
    3. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  17. James, why are you undoing the good work you do by letting wankers like GWC dickhead comment ??
    Move on to another platform please.

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    1. Ah wankers! Well if you stand on an ice block 2× 2 ft Sq and put a rope around your neck then wait a while... and wank.

      Delete
    2. Compulsive masturbation disorder refers to the condition in which you will have an urge to masturbate continuously, with or without using pornography. In some serious cases, you will need to seek professional medical help to treat other associated symptoms such as depression, anxiety, obsessive behavior, and the incapability to keep a healthy relationship.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2March 7, 2017 at 10:32 PM

      I did a jumbo jobbie in my American tan tights tonight (don't judge me). As I strolled the floor smoking my clay pipe - Sweet Afton the brand - I could feel my solid warm stool nestle between gusset and my hairy wee beanbag and I pondered on good government and free prescriptions. I cursed jock fash under my breathe and dweamed about Kipper-SLAB Alliance to crush nat si. I am not David Coburn though I'd understand why you'd think that. I'm half man, half Tory and I love Union Britain.

      Delete
  18. Glasgow Working Class 2March 7, 2017 at 10:19 PM

    Tonto goes into the wig wam tae vote fur the Union and notes the Lone Ranger has two slices of breid around his willie and chuggin away. Tonto says ah Kemosabe coming in peice.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Glasgow Working Class 2March 7, 2017 at 11:22 PM

    Had to laugh at Michael Martin MEP and a Jock Nat si MEP on the STV earlier. Both losing their jobs in the EU gravy train. How sad indeed!

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2March 7, 2017 at 11:34 PM

      I think I just laddered my hosiery trying to fish out a copy of Spot the Dog I keep down the right leg for a rainy night in front of the iPad. Jock fash makes a mad man out of me with jibber jabber about their Pictish Plebiscite. Bring it I say and Kip-SLAB Alliance will show up the need to end bus passes and free personal care and good government. Still got that blasted jobbie trapped down under.

      Delete
  20. Time for the next post fascist loser. ABOVE. How did you survive slezzin doon yer maws leg Nazi!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete