Thursday, March 9, 2017

Support for independence soars to 50% in sensational Ipsos-Mori telephone poll

There was a time, in the run-up to the first indyref, when we used to dread the "Hi, I'm John MacKay" telephone polls conducted by Ipsos-Mori for STV - they were typically much worse for Yes than the online polls conducted by other firms (with the exception of YouGov).  Those days are long gone, though, and today brings word of an extraordinary STV/Ipsos-Mori poll that should finally lay to rest the myth beloved of the mainstream media that support for independence is falling.  It also raises genuine question marks over whether John Curtice was right to assume that the Yes surge in the recent BMG poll was most likely an illusion caused by sampling variation.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 50% (+2)
No 50% (-2)

Yes actually have a slender lead on the unrounded numbers, by 50.4% to 49.6%.  There's also a Yes lead even with rounding on the version of the figures that leave Don't Knows in : Yes 47%, No 46%, Don't Know/Refused 7%.  (It's the turnout filter that pushes Yes in front, though - without it, there's a small No advantage.)

This means all three of the most recent independence polls - from BMG, Panelbase and Ipsos-Mori respectively -  have shown some sort of swing to Yes.  In the case of Panelbase the change was not significant, but the fact that all three have shown movement in the same direction, and that two of the three have shown Yes support above the typical range of recent months, suggests that it's perfectly possible (albeit not certain) that we're looking at genuine progress for Yes as opposed to margin of error 'noise'.  If so, the breakthrough could scarcely be better-timed, with Nicola Sturgeon seemingly edging ever closer to making an announcement about a second independence referendum.  It'll be a tad difficult for the UK government to maintain the fiction that no-one in Scotland wants a referendum when two of the last three polls suggest that either 49% or 50% of the population would vote for independence itself.

Ipsos-Mori are unusual in choosing not to weight by past vote recall, and relying on demographic weightings only.  That means it's impossible to tell whether Yes are making more headway with anti-Brexit former No voters than has been the case in other recent polls.  There is, however, a supplementary question that asks whether an independent Scotland should remain fully inside the EU, or should retain "full access" to the single market from outside the EU, or should sever ties with Brussels completely.  Professor Curtice has leapt on the fact that "only" 48% of respondents support full EU membership, but a couple of points need to be made about that - it's actually an outright majority (52%) once Don't Knows are stripped out, and it's likely that the three-option format will have led some people without a strong view to gravitate instinctively towards the middle, 'compromise' option.  I strongly suspect that a straight Yes/No question on full EU membership would have produced a more decisive majority.

There's also a question that asks about independence in a slightly different way, by inviting respondents to rate themselves on a 1-10 scale, with 1 representing total commitment to independence, and 10 representing total opposition.  The outcome suggests that Yes support may be somewhat softer than No support, because 52% of respondents put themselves on the anti-independence half of the scale, and only 46% on the pro-independence half.  Having said that, those numbers aren't filtered for turnout, so can't be directly compared with the headline voting intention figures.

Intriguingly, the two parties whose voters are most split on independence are Labour and the Greens.  They're the reverse mirror image of each other, with people who plan to vote Labour in the local elections splitting 2-1 for a No vote, and prospective Green voters breaking 2-1 for Yes.  That suggests (incredibly) that Labour could have even further to fall if Kezia Dugdale doesn't temper her hardline ultra-unionist "no surrender to the SNP" rhetoric.  It also underscores that the Greens may be able to reach the parts that the SNP can't in some select wards in the local elections, and that SNP voters giving lower preference transfers to the Greens might just conceivably help to elect a few unlikely pro-independence councillors in No-friendly wards.

Here are the full voting intention numbers for the local elections -

SNP 46%
Conservatives 19%
Labour 17%
Greens 8%
Liberal Democrats 6%
UKIP 3%

For my money, that will be more than a little worrying for the Tories.  They've been getting a tad complacent of late, imagining that a second-place finish is already assured (to be fair I've tended to make that assumption as well) and setting their sights instead on a strong enough popular vote to generate acres of "blow for the SNP" headlines.  A sub-20 showing won't be anything like enough for that - and remember that the Tories are at a disadvantage in local elections, because their areas of traditional strength often prefer independent councillors.  If the above figures are close to the true state of public opinion, they could suggest that the Tories are in danger of remaining in third place - which, weirdly, would actually be quite a story.

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SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS 

Should Scotland be an independent country?


Yes 48.3%
No 51.7%

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each firm that has reported at least once within the last three months.  The firms included in the current sample are Panelbase, BMG and Ipsos-Mori.  The aggregate YouGov figures for August to December are excluded, because they don't really constitute a standalone poll.  The most recent proper YouGov poll was completed just over three months ago.)

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67 comments:

  1. As Alex Salmond once said "Who are these people?"...the 50% No voters that is.
    The trend appears to be going in the right direction,at last.

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  2. 50% before any campaign has really begun is fine. We have had nothing but 'SNP Bad' for some time now trying to undermine support for a Yes vote should a Referendum be called. Not everyone who supports Yes vote SNP.

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    Replies
    1. I think there's a lot to be said for the really vicious attacks coming early. If Yes had gone over 50% three months before the referendum people would have had a chance to assess the full onslaught and probably discount a lot of it before the actual vote. Coming as it did in the final couple of weeks it meant that the voters were knocked off balance just at the point final voting decisions were taken.

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    2. We Scots will buck the trend,back the outsider and support the under dog its just that this time we are the under dogs and fighting for ourselves we must win.

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  3. Sunshine on CrieffMarch 9, 2017 at 10:43 AM

    I don't know the fieldwork dates but could this in part be a reaction to the strident and arrogant tone taken by the Tories at their conference?

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    Replies
    1. I agree. What we need is a Tory conference once a month...

      Alex Birnie

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    2. Nooooooo...the horror!

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  4. The Ipsos-Mori website has the fieldwork as 24 Feb - 6 Mar

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  5. Looks like the mundell double act did it's job - Oscar goes to mori

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    Replies
    1. " Me Treezan, him Jane"!

      Treezan, Ruthless and Fluffy----the Tory champion Flip-flop relay team.

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  6. Its the direction of travel that is important here.
    When the referendum comes, whoever leads the NO side, will have to explain the broken promises. They will also have to explain why, after Brexit, a more powerful, sovereign Westminster (therefore less powerful, non-sovereign Holyrood) would be attractive to Scots.

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    Replies
    1. Aye.And they'll also have to explain why London Tory rule is good for Scotland.

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  7. *Ipsos MORI, not Ipsos-Mori. MORI is an acronym. Get it right please.

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    Replies
    1. Wash your anorak.

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    2. Get a life.

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    3. Accuracy of all kinds, y'know, kind of important when it comes to polling. I'm with DaveM!

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    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    6. Thanks for the 'feedback' Anonymous people, and for hiding thus. James is often the first to decry inaccuracy in other blogs or the reporting of polls, yet I have been calling for him to be accurate around Ipsos MORI for several years (unheeded, apparently). Why? Well, because if he's not willing to be accurate about the (very public) identity of a social research company, then why should his analysis of polling be trustworthy? Secondly, I worked for Ipsos MORI for ten years, so it kind of bugs me that he can't be bothered to get their name right. It shouldn't be too much to ask

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  8. Scotland should have been independent the whole way through. Nothing good to say about Jimmy the sixth.

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    Replies
    1. Someone gets it. And reason #1 why I want rid of the entire bloody dynasty of them.

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    2. A grudge against a guy who's been dead for 400 years? That's your #1 reason?

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    3. For wanting rid of the monarchy? Why not? Plenty other reasons as well though.

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  9. The question is should there be a referendum not could there. According to Fluffy Mundell. Well there is your answer Fluffy. What were the polls saying going onto the EU referendum bill. I suspect leave were never ahead of remain.

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  10. I stay in England so I have just got my members booklet with the option of donating to the local elections and on the donation form its give you the option to donate to the referendum campaign fund which made me smile as Nicola hasn't even called it yet. Come on we can win this.

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  11. Support increased to 50%? You absolute shower of racist bastards! How very DARE you. Can't you READ the newspapers you bunch of ignorant Sweaty Socks???

    lol.

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  12. Gosh, a dearth of BritNat trolls here given this news.

    Could it be they are emptying and laundering their threadbare skivvies?

    Splendid stuff all round - this news and the lack of them.

    Forward for us and good bye to them.

    I wonder what'll they do? Where will they go and who would have them?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. too wee, too poor, too stoopid, shriieeeek!!!

      Delete
    2. Wullyum Wallace deceasedMarch 9, 2017 at 5:10 PM

      Ah so Herr Mayor what will the currency be? And when the EU tells you to stop trading with RuK vott vill you tell the Scottish workers?
      Verr vill the Scottish Central bank be located? (if not Frankfurt) Who vill pay yer pension?

      Delete
    3. Christina's Facebook PageMarch 9, 2017 at 5:13 PM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  13. Interesting that our target group is still the females voting 56% no and men 54% yes. Forget targeting the selfish Oaps with their Broonie pensions. We need to target the women. Surely having a woman in charge this time will work in our favour.

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    Replies
    1. A goodly proportion of the women who are currently for no *will* be OAPS, so why would be discount them? They all need reassurance.

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    2. Wouldn't count in that. Hillary wasn't an anomaly. Lots of Women don't support Women.

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  14. Looks like the Nat sis will be cleaning the stains aff ra shreddies. Makes ye blind.

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    Replies
    1. Vote Yes when the 2nd Ref comes around.

      Delete
  15. Winston Churchill slayer of NazisMarch 9, 2017 at 5:23 PM

    Frau Knickerless says it will be Autumn 2018. Wee smelly drawers hedging her bets.
    We should be well out of the EU by then.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    2. Christine Keiller Good lookin BurdMarch 9, 2017 at 6:52 PM

      Is the D for Dyke or Dumbcluck maybe both.

      Delete
    3. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetMarch 9, 2017 at 8:29 PM

      tory twat

      Delete
  16. Dugdale's Suicide SquadMarch 9, 2017 at 5:43 PM

    Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 8 hours ago

    The proper collective noun for a group of Scottish Labour MSPs is a "diddygaggle".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Collective group of Nat sis failed with their Verbal diahorea and lost their referendum.

      Delete
    2. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetMarch 9, 2017 at 8:29 PM

      tory twat

      Delete
  17. Theresa Trumpette and her revolting kipper toriesMarch 9, 2017 at 5:45 PM

    Steve Anderson‏Verified account @steveanderson87 12 hours ago

    Only just catching up on the widow's pension cut. Now only covers 18 mnths after spouse's death, rather than up until youngest leaves school

    Which is scandalous. I was 6 and sis was 7 when dad died. It was a real lifeline to my mum. Imagine if that'd stopped 18 months later.

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  18. So....Labour are a whopping NINE points ahead of the Greens.

    ReplyDelete
  19. BritScot loyalistMarch 9, 2017 at 7:27 PM

    Looks like the UK government will have to intervene and protect Scottish Unionists from violent attacks and harassment if the fascist Jock Nat sis take power. The UK has responsibility to protect us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

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  20. Loyalist Scotland Speaks Up against fascismMarch 9, 2017 at 7:51 PM

    Just take a step back and look at the first comment on this thread at March 9 2017, 10.21am.
    'Who are these people'.
    The utter contempt for fellow Scots who have a difference of opinion.
    The Nat sis are dangerous and wish to take control of all poitical institutions. No dissent will be allowed.
    Unionists have to rally and not be complacent we are dealing with fundamentalist nutters who hate their neighbour England.

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    1. Dear oh dear, all the unionist trolls on all pages just don't get it do they? If I come on these pages and sites for information or a gauge on how to feel about independence for Scotland then these utterly vile messages convince me I'm on the right side. Your comments turn more and more people off your beloved union of equals( aye Belter ) keep up the good work guys!!

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    2. Wee Poor Person beggin oan the StreetsMarch 9, 2017 at 8:24 PM

      And your circle of friends include!

      Delete
    3. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetMarch 9, 2017 at 8:31 PM

      tory twat

      Delete
    4. The troll, who calls himself by any number of names, calls Scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate speech, praises Theresa May and the Tories, and displays a perverted and poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      Delete
  21. Just had Survation on the phone.
    They asked these questions.(More or less, I didn't have a pen handy.)

    What is your council area?
    How did you vote in 2015?
    How did you vote in 2016 constituency and regional?
    How did you vote in 2016 referendum?
    How did you vote in 2014 referendum?
    Who would you vote for if there was a Scottish parliament election now?
    How likely would you be to vote in it?

    How favorably do you view...
    ...Jeremy Corbyn?
    ...Theresa May?
    ...Angus Robertson?
    ...Kezia Dugdale?
    ...Ruth Davidson?
    ...Nicola Sturgeon?

    How would you vote in a second indyref?
    How sure are you of that?
    How much do you agree with...
    "Brexit is a significant material change in circs"
    "The Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold indyref two"
    "Decisions on Scotland's relationship with the EU should be made in Scotland"
    "The Scottish government's position on Brexit"
    "The British government's position on Brexit"

    And demographic questions...
    What kind of household do you live in(owning/renting/family)?
    Employment status? Public or private?
    What is the occupation of the highest earner in the household?

    Thought you might be interested.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would prefer Jim Sillars to that lot inspite of him being a Nat si,

      Delete
    2. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetMarch 9, 2017 at 8:31 PM

      tory twat

      Delete
    3. The Nat si poster above is just your run of the mill right wing Tartan Tory who is probably male but has a Twat.

      Delete
    4. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  22. Wee Jimmy Krankie is doing a fine job.Communists from the old guard are proud as punch as the dear leader rolls out her manifesto.Policies such as if you see something say something,which is just parlance for snooping and grassing up yer neighbour,to driving at 31mph with no victim and your nicked,to even look at your mobile and your nicked,to the fascist named person debacle. Now a thimble of lager at your local and youll find your collar felt by the old bill if over the limit at the wheel.. This then results in the shut down and devastatation of rural communities the dear leader supposedly loves, while shes pisshed in the back of her chauffer driven limo,in true champagne socialist style.Do as i say not as i do.Finished off by hate speech against the dastardly toffy nosed English.Then shes off globetrotting on the trail of the NEW WORLD ORDER and the globalist masters she serves all under the guise of nationalism.

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    1. zoomer twat

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    2. Topper!! Get off your knees and grow a spine. Hate the SNP Sturgeon, Salmond all you want but a vote for independence is not a vote for the SNP. For all you know Scotland could quite possibly vote Tory and a scexit however unlikely the point is its our choice to make. I'll never understand ever why people could possibly ever support Westminster rule. The complete hypocrisy that if England chooses to leave a union because of some made up shite about not being independent then that's all jolly well but if Scotland isn't so happy in a more domineering union then we just have to suck it up cause we are inferior for some reason that escapes me but still my fellow countrymen are happy to be the shit on the shoe. Choose life, choose self respect, choose yes

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    3. Yer we bit hill and glen and stood against them, Who! So move forward and sing about a lot of shite. Geeze a break English hater,

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    4. Ha brilliant retort, have you been keeping that 1 up your cuff? Who said anything about hating English, I never. The tide is turning and you have no one to blame but your precious Westminster. Wankers like you are helping and I'd like to take the opportunity to thank you all once again. By the way 4th verse of god save the queen is about giving the Scots a smack in the mouth you geesa a break and move on

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    5. Ok I admit tae fondling my willie oan occasion but only for medicical purposes.
      The tide always goes in favour of the Union when common sense takes over from emotions.

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    6. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  23. Also interesting to note, Ipsos MORI nailed it with the EU ref in Scotland, being the most accurate with only 1% off the final result.

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  24. loved the Metro's spin today. "when those that are not certain to vote are included" the Union still has a slender lead. lol not even sure that is actually accurate but anyway. first time you've seen the opposite filter used in an MSM article.

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