Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Pro-independence vote increases to 46.1% in perspicacious Panelbase poll

It turns out that I was wrong in my guesswork last night - when Panelbase said there was "no real change" in their latest independence poll, what they meant was that there was no change at all.  Actually, to be fair, there was a slight change of sorts - one of the many advantages to having a poll commissioned by Wings is that Stuart often publishes the datasets straight away (not exactly something that would happen in the Telegraph), and from that I can see that the unrounded Yes vote has in fact increased, by...well, by 0.5%.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 46.1% (+0.5)
No 53.9% (-0.5)

Before anyone jumps down my throat - no, of course a 0.5% swing is not remotely statistically significant, and yes, these results are firmly within Panelbase's normal range.  So this poll fails to corroborate the potentially more significant surge we saw in the BMG poll, and thus increases the likelihood that the pro-Yes swing in BMG was an illusion caused by normal sampling variation.  Nevertheless, it's not that long at all since the media were trying to convince anyone who would listen (on the basis of very little evidence) that the Yes vote was undoubtedly on a downward trajectory.  This poll, especially when taken in conjunction with BMG, inconveniently contradicts that narrative as well.

There's a belief in some quarters that recent referendums and elections have proved that supplementary questions sometimes give you a better idea of the state of the race than the headline voting intention question does.  For example, it can be argued that Ed Miliband's poor personal ratings, and Labour's poor ratings on economic competence, were the giveaway clues that the voting intention figures in the 2015 election were leading us astray.  So unionist critics would be wise not to be too dismissive of three more nuanced questions Stuart invited Panelbase to ask, tying the independence question to views on Europe, or to the potential for neverending Tory rule from Westminster.  Those are points that may well be at the forefront of voters' minds by the end of an indyref campaign, even if they aren't at the start.

There's a mixture of good news and bad news on those questions.  When a four-option question on constitutional preferences (indy inside EU, indy outside EU, no indy inside EU, or no indy outside EU) was first asked in July 2015, the two independence options were almost as popular (48.3%) as the two anti-independence alternatives (51.7%).  That gap has now widened to 44.4% for the pro-independence options and 55.6% for the anti-independence options - slightly worse than on the headline independence question.

But as Stuart points out, the four-option question is hopelessly outdated anyway, because the idea of Scotland remaining in the EU as part of the UK is no longer a runner (except in Lib Dem fantasies).  The more realistic three-option question does produce a majority for the two pro-independence options.  After Don't Knows are stripped out, 52.5% of respondents want an independent Scotland either inside or outside the EU, while only 47.5% want Scotland to remain part of a UK that has left the EU.  The snag, of course, is that for this narrow advantage to be pressed home at the next indyref, we'll need to convince all or most of the anti-EU independence supporters that it's still worth voting for independence even if that means remaining within the EU - either that or we'll have to bring across some pro-EU people who haven't seriously considered independence yet.  In reality, it'll probably need to be a blend of the two.

The question that invites people to assume that Labour will never again win a UK general election (not as fanciful an idea as we might have once thought) produces a small boost for Yes - with Don't Knows excluded, it narrows the race to Yes 47.1%, No 52.9%.  So it looks like perpetual Tory rule will not be a decisive argument in itself, but even the smallest of tractions is not to be sniffed at in a close contest like this one.  Stuart also notes that there are seemingly irrational movements within the subsamples for that question, which may cast doubt on whether some of the respondents really grasped what they were being asked.

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A Scot Goes Pop reader sent me the following email a few hours ago -

"Just to let you know I have just completed a Populus survey on independence. Lots of questions on the UK Gov rejecting a second ref."

Could be an innocent poll for the mainstream media, but then again Populus have been known to act as a private pollster for the Tories.  Are the UK government seriously trying to work out whether they might just get away with Michael Fallon's "forget it, Jocks" message?  Good luck to them if they are - they'll need it.

*  *  *

If you've enjoyed my writing in recent months and feel a strange inexplicable urge to 'buy me a hot chocolate', bear in mind that my fundraiser from two years ago is still open for additional donations - it can be found HERE.

43 comments:

  1. Actually, I wonder if "Forget it, Porridge-wogs" would actually be a helpful message for us? We are, after all, a cantankerous lot...

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  2. Someone should run a poll looking at the importance of the various factors in the indy debate. Questions on how important are
    1. Currency - £, Euro or Scot £
    2. EU, Single Market or full Tory Brexit?
    3. Accept Toryitis in WM for next 20 years
    4. Would you vote indy if you then had a chance for a vote on EU, EAA, single market?

    Probably some others worth asking...

    Adam@_ParaHandy

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 15, 2017 at 6:41 PM

      Are you Nat sis really so thick that you do not know you are Tories?

      Delete
    2. Absolute bloody state of this paperweight.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 15, 2017 at 8:47 PM

      I will try and help you understand why you thickos are tories

      In psychology, cognitive dissonance is the mental stress (discomfort) experienced by a person who simultaneously holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values, when performing an action that contradicts those beliefs, ideas, and values; or when confronted with new information that contradicts existing beliefs, ideas, and values.

      Leon Festinger's theory of cognitive dissonance focuses on how human beings strive for internal consistency. A person who experiences inconsistency tends to become psychologically uncomfortable, and so is motivated to try to reduce the cognitive dissonance occurring, and actively avoids situations and information likely to increase the psychological discomfort.

      Its a bit like trying to be Scottish and british. In the end you have to choose one and I choose to be a second class englishman on my knees rather than stand up for my self.

      Delete
  3. People who visit this site are in the main have an interest in politics, some may eat breath and sleep politics. Most of the electorate don't and have not absorbed the realities of triggering Article 50.

    Once Article 50 had been triggered the UK Government will have to fight on two fronts, one against the EU and against the Scottish Government. The electorate are not absorbed with the debate on A50 and it's consequences but once the second Referendum is called the voters will start engaging again.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 15, 2017 at 7:07 PM

      Of course they will be forced to engage when the Nat sis do not come up with a currency and economic plan. You had your chance the last time. How do you plan to increase Scottish trade with the world when you turn your back on the hated English. Simple questions for the Nat sis but probably no answers.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 15, 2017 at 8:33 PM

      50% of Jocko Thickos are stupid the other 50% are Fash Nat sis
      There are five sectors that account for almost two-thirds of Scotland’s exports:

      • Food and beverages
      • Chemicals
      • Business services
      • Electronics and instrument engineering
      • Mechanical engineering.

      Other important Scottish exports

      • Textiles
      • Oil and gas and fuel-based equipment
      • Renewable energies, equipment and technology

      Scotland's top export markets:

      * USA
      * Netherlands
      * France
      * Germany

      Other growing export markets include Australia, China, India, Japan, Russia and United Arab Emirates.

      Yer doomed yer feckin doomed ah telt ye

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    3. Poor little operative.

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    4. Ah but there's a nagging issue here. So far Brexit has not been a disaster. Unemployment continues to fall and the economy continues to grow - so we are told.

      The perpetual Conservatives are a problem, but not for everyone. I heard today about cuts to disability benefits and to other welfare benefits which start in April. But if the demographic data we know about is true, then a lot of the more disadvantaged are already on board Yes.

      Then we have the inflation increase. If it gets under way interest rates will rise. That benefits the huge group of capital owners. Older and richer, no mortgages. They are less likely presently to be with us. And businesses are without a doubt gouging. That will help boost profits next year - and possibly the tax take in January next year.

      So within the narrow time frame imposed on us of before 2019, I have doubts we will be able to convince a lot of people that Brexit is as bad an idea as it will turn out to be. If people were able to do reasonably accurate predictions of the future we would have won in 2014.

      And for gods sake get that wanking class tit off your site. This was a terrific resource a couple of years ago. Migrate to wordpress and block the cock.

      Delete
    5. Hide GWC's comments with this browser bookmarklet: http://bit.ly/sgp-trolls-readme

      Delete
    6. Thank you so much. :)

      Delete
    7. Its maybe a wee bit unclear how to use it. once you have saved the Javascript as a bookmark, you run Scot Goes Pop as usual then once its on your browser click the bookmark you made thats the javascript bit. Presto. Wanker free reading.

      Thank you very very much Herderpmerp.

      Delete
    8. It works - great

      Delete
  4. Agreed Marcia. People who write blogs and comment on their threads almost always overestimate how much attention normal people pay to politics. The answer is almost always "none whatsoever". An event that will begin to change that is if and when food prices etc start to noticeably rise.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 15, 2017 at 7:24 PM

      The gap between rich and poor in Scotland is lengthening at a fast rate under the Scottish Nat si Party. Tartan Tories indeed.

      Delete
    2. Clinging doggedly to its script. What a good little operative.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 15, 2017 at 8:56 PM

      Kezia played a master stroke in the Smith commission she stopped everything that could have helped the Fash Nat sis and only gave them powers which would stifle any progress.
      As David Eiser of Stirling University said: "There is a wide agenda for the Scottish Government to work with if it wants to tackle inequality. With more powers would come more opportunities. But in many areas of tax, welfare and regulation policy, the Scottish Government and Scottish MPs will have to content themselves with an influencing role at UK level."

      How is that looking for you Fash Nat sis influencing our wonderful progressive government in westminster

      Delete
    4. Clinging doggedly to its script, all the way to single figures. What a good little operative.

      Delete
  5. Glasgow Working Class 2February 15, 2017 at 7:17 PM

    Oh and Marcia old thing the British government have a mandate from what was a democratic election. They do not have to engage with the Nat si government. You may have noticed that inspite of Knickerless strutting around the EU trying to sell out Britain the Scottish people still support the Union. Now go and dae the dishes and put the weans tae bed like a good wummin.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 15, 2017 at 8:28 PM

      This is an excellent result for Boris and me, we were circle jerking so much last night that I didnt get enough time to get my maids uniform off and made a right mess of it

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  6. I don’t much care about opinion polls, the yes had the numbers in 2014 and we won that referendum it was denied to us Scots because it was rigged. And as far I’m concerned if the SNP keep getting elected then every five years a new referendum till these unionist get the message. I want to how that Ruth Davidson new they had won in 2014 by 55% before the voting had even started what a joke.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 15, 2017 at 7:28 PM

      MI6 rigged it. They put covert operatives into the vehicles carrying the ballot boxes. They did the same to get the Nat sis elected just to cause mass confusion.

      Delete
    2. aint that nice someone believes the same as me.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 15, 2017 at 9:00 PM

      Zionists did it with the help of Tibetan Nationalists and Joseph Kony

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2February 15, 2017 at 9:10 PM

      Zionists were to blame for crusifying Robert Powell. They deserve all they get for killing our Jesus.

      Delete
    5. Absolute bloody state of this confused tinfoil hat wearer.

      Delete
  7. Well,half of Scots (if we are to believe these polls) accept that Scotland as an entity is unimportant to them.
    How sad.
    These people should give up the right to vote and allow their neighbours to decide things on their behalf.
    Maybe,the penny will finally drop...time will tell.

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  8. I think we should maybe start looking at EFTA rather than full EU. It may bring back some yes/leave voters, while leaving room for the no/remain voters to come over. Could also go a ways to solving the trade disparity between rUK and EU we have, which is sure to play big in the next referendum

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    1. Yes. YES!
      At the very least people SHOULD BE ASKING QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS OPTION IN POLLS. Because we aren't winning with the present offer.

      And because we won't have time to remain seamlessly in the EU before Brexit-Day in March 2019.

      Should Scotland remain in the European Single Market via EFTA as Norway, Iceland and Switzerland do? Y/N

      Should Scotland remain in the European Single Market by rejoining the European Union (EU) as soon as possible? Y/N


      Jeezo

      Delete
  9. Brexit has not been the disaster predicted largely because brexit hasn't actually happened.The predictions made before the referendum were based on the information that the British PM at the time said before and during the campaign that he would trigger A50 as soon as the result to leave was confirmed.The fact that he left politics almost immediately and brexit handed over to someone else has delayed rather than avoided the consequences.It should also be noted that a future indyref campaign will be very different to the first and the no campaign will be almost entirely run from the right and the far right.Given the parlous state of Labour both north and south of the border.

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  10. Everyone interested in Brexit should read Ian Dunts excellent and very digestible book. It gives an insight into the vast complexity of our current situation and the unmitigated mess we are in. I would recommend that previous no voters have a read to try and comprehend the task ahead for the UK negotiating team and the opportunity a lifeboat approach to any second indyref represents. Even the "fall back" to WTO could take half a decade to sort out and still leave us shafted. We are in big big trouble. Brexit has not even begun yet. Brace yourselves.

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  11. How bizarre - a poll by a pollster who previously had to suspend new members joining because of gnat infiltration has produced some good news for the rabidly pro-independence (but no that pro to actually live here) computer games spod who paid for it. Ah'm pyoor shocked so I am!

    Next week: A poll commissioned by the tobacco industry says cigarettes are good for yer.

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    Replies
    1. Yes and the Jews did 9/11

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 16, 2017 at 5:00 PM

      It must have been the Jews that talked the nice Islamist religion of peace guys into doing this. Jews are clever. I bought a bagel from a Jewish shop near Brick Lane once and it was great it had Scottish smoked salmon on it. Nobody does it better than Jews.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 17, 2017 at 6:21 AM

      The Iraq War was actually started because the United States wanted access to Saddam Hussein's secret Stargate device.
      The Stargate was hidden away in a secret base near Al-Ouja, which he obtained after contacting an ancient alien race. Saddam was intending to use the Stargate to allow the race to invade Earth, but fortunately the New World Order decided to step in and prevent it.

      Delete
  12. Glasgow Working Class 2February 16, 2017 at 7:21 PM

    In the real democratic world there is nothing both the fish can do about brexit. We are on our way out as voted by the majorityy of brits.
    The Nat sis will still not give an explanation why they want independence then give it away tae herman and the frogs.

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    1. Absolute bloody state of this paperweight.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 16, 2017 at 8:56 PM

      Bloody state of the Nat sis. They must be in a conclave waiting for the white brexit smoke fae ra chimney.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 17, 2017 at 1:30 AM

      It's gonna be grate it's gonna be amazing we're gonna build a grate wall.

      Billionaire Sir James Dyson who campaigned for Brexit on the grounds that it would “make us richer” has just announced he is creating hundreds of jobs – in Asia.

      The entrepreneur condemned Remain campaign claims before the referendum that British exports would fall in the aftermath of a vote to quit the union as “absolute cobblers”, saying Britain would actually be £18.5 billion better off every year if voters back Brexit.

      But following Dyson’s decision to move 500 jobs to Malaysia in 2002, the company has just invested £300 million in a new research and development centre – in Singapore.

      GSTQ WATP NO SURRENDER

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  13. Glasgow Working Class 2February 17, 2017 at 6:26 AM

    yoga is a spiritual pandemic that is contaminating the entire world, including our churches and our people. If you think you have never been exposed to these demonic forces, think again. If you have ever exercised, especially stretching exercises, or involved in any kind of relaxation, meditational, memory improvement, laughter therapy, stress reduction, Pilates or breathing techniques, you have most likely participated in yoga

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Absolute bloody state of this paperweight.

      Delete