Friday, February 24, 2017

Coping with Copeland

Before any important English by-election, I always try to work out which result would be best for us from a strategic point of view.  ("Strategic" isn't really the right word for something we have no control over, but you know what I mean.)  There are often arguments pointing in more than one direction, but for yesterday's double-header in Copeland and Stoke I had come to the firm conclusion that the most desirable outcome would be two Labour wins, and that Copeland was the more important of the two contests.  This was my reasoning...

* A win for the Tories in Copeland would reverse the cut in their slender majority they suffered at Richmond Park, and thus lessen the SNP's bargaining power in the Commons.  It would also reduce the chances of the majority being completely wiped out (or very substantially reduced) before 2020.

* Although a win for UKIP in Stoke would not officially increase the government majority, it would probably slightly weaken the chances of the government suffering defeats on the floor of the Commons, because ad hoc anti-government coalitions are harder to cobble together if UKIP are an indispensable part of them.

* It shouldn't have to be this way, but the SNP, UKIP and the Lib Dems are locked in a dogfight for recognition as the most important third party in the eyes of the London media.  Getting their leader into parliament would be a coup for UKIP and might weaken the SNP's hand somewhat.

* Whether it's because Jeremy Corbyn is genuinely a poor leader, or whether it's because Labour MPs and Labour-friendly commentators have made it impossible for him to lead the party effectively, there can't be much doubt that he has become an asset for the SNP and the wider independence movement, and that it would now be desirable for him to remain in harness for as long as humanly possible.  Defeat for Labour in one or both by-elections might hasten his departure date, and would therefore be a bad thing.

So taking all of those factors into consideration, what actually happened yesterday was grim news, although it could have been even worse if Stoke had fallen to UKIP.  The other consolation is that the slight strengthening of the government majority may make a snap general election prior to 2020 less likely. A working Tory majority of 16 is not a great situation to find ourselves in, and it offers only limited opportunities for the SNP to hold the balance of power on individual issues.  But it's a hell of a lot better than a majority of 200 - which is the sort of disaster we'd be looking at if there was an election any time soon.

*  *  *

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41 comments:

  1. I hope Labour supporters in Scotland read the runes.
    The by-election results in England this morning are another sign that England is moving further to the right politically. Brexit negotiations will, with help from the rabid English nationalist media, see England reach new levels of xenophobic nationalism. Britnats in Scotland will endeavour to tie Scotland to England’s descent into the political mire.

    I am confident that most people in Scotland will recognize England’s descent and do everything in their power to save Scotland from a similar fate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You do not need tae tell yer porkies Nat si. Scotland has a right wing government and you know it. Thatcherite policies still the core of the fash nationalists.
      It is like voting Blair and pretending it is socialism.

      Delete
    2. Feeling better now after yer wee uninformed rant. What's the score neebs? 2-1 tae caley thistle. Plz leave your 17th century and join the rest of planet earth in the 21st.

      Delete
    3. four out of Scotland’s six party leaders (the Conservatives’ Ruth Davidson, Ukip’s David Coburn and the Greens’ Patrick Harvie) are lesbian, gay or bisexual, making Holyrood, as she put it in a recent newspaper column, “the gayest parliament in the world”. Last year, the Rainbow Europe Index identified Scotland as the best country in Europe when it came to legal protections for LGB people , fash nat sis jocko thickos keep voting for right wing tory snp

      Delete
    4. Theresa Trumpette and her revolting kipper toriesFebruary 25, 2017 at 11:40 PM

      Ross ColquhounVerified account‏@rosscolquhoun 5 hours ago

      The thing Labour forgets is that the very UK they seek to defend at *any* cost is lurching to the far right and they are unelectable.

      Delete
    5. Real Scottish Man with Big WilleFebruary 25, 2017 at 11:42 PM

      I am the Gayest person you could meet but do not take the bobbie up the erse.
      It is not Unusual for a man and woman to shag and have weans. Could this be banned by Kezia the Dug and the Jock Fash. Nae Shagging just wankin intae a tube and hivvin wee perfect Jock Nazis.

      Delete
    6. Red Tory Blue Tory Yoon ToryFebruary 25, 2017 at 11:43 PM

      Liam O'HareVerified account‏@Liam_O_Hare 12 hours ago

      FYI Scottish Labour's head of media used to edit the Scottish Daily Mail. Yes, the paper which wrote the textbook on 'divisive nationalism'.

      Delete
    7. Red Tory Blue Tory Yoon ToryFebruary 25, 2017 at 11:54 PM

      We tried to tell you‏@LabourOutOfScot 5 hours ago

      Scotland never had a political Opposition, it just has Uber-Unionists opposed to self determination who fight against Scotland for London

      Delete
    8. Why do you keep changing your name Hector we all know your elevator does not go all the way to the top but cmon eh

      Delete
  2. The Tory win can only help the cause, James. Folk that only get their news from the MSM cannot help but see Englands ever more rightwards slide.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I felt genuine disappointment for Corbyn. But I also took it as a down payment on 'eternal Tory government' a prospect which surely must be a positive factor toward securing our independence in due course.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 25, 2017 at 12:03 AM

      The Tories will secure Tory policies in Scotland implemented by the Nat sis and this will secure the Union.
      Do you Nat si camp followers actually believe the Nat si elite want independence.
      They are coining in the dosh from the Union and taking the piss out of you mugs.

      Delete
    2. What absolute pish you spout. Hopefully you will be leaving Scotland after independence and move down to ingerland and you can wallow in the true nazi ideals that the Conservatives will be inflicting on their people post brexit. You do realise that nazis are to the right of the political spectrum. (a spectrum is not what you use for playing the guitar)

      Delete
    3. Just ignore the IDIOT it doesn't have the balls to say who it really is all he does id spout absolute nonsense it must be Kezia in disguise. It's party is doing well right enough it is too busy spouting poison against the SNP and Yes movement in General that the Party he claims to support is sliding to oblivion. What a Muppet it is!

      Delete
    4. Just further proof how thick you are. Do you honestly think those MPs really want to do themselves out of a job for you tossers.

      Delete
    5. Did UKIP MEPs want to do themselves out of a job?

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2February 25, 2017 at 8:21 PM

      The splendid Mr Farage and his bunch of Merry men have done a wonderful job defending englands working class and our childrens future, they will lose nothing when the fascist euro state disintegrates as they will all receive their just reward in the house of lords. You jocko fash nat sis dont have what it takes to be proper englishmen.
      No surrender WATP GSTQ

      Delete
    7. Trump's Golden Shower of KippersFebruary 25, 2017 at 11:59 PM

      Arron Banks‏@Arron_banks 4h

      UKIP MP Carswell deliberately blocked Nigel knighthood that had been ok'd by the Tories. Disgraceful behaviour from a nobody.


      ROFL!!

      Kipper toys oot the pram

      Delete
  4. Theresa Trumpette and her revolting kipper toriesFebruary 24, 2017 at 9:39 PM

    OliveClough‏@CloughOlive 2 hours ago

    .
    Yeah yeah yeah Brexiters.....

    Australia loves you
    They just can't wait to do business with you......

    “Many Australian firms have accessed the EU via Britain. With the uncertainty surrounding what a post-Brexit Britain will look like, I believe Australian firms will look to Ireland to fulfil that role,”

    “Ireland is superbly positioned to attract that kind of engagement from Australian business. I see this as a great opportunity of how we, Australia and Ireland, can take advantage of what has occurred in Brexit."

    - Julie Bishop Australian Foreign Minister

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Free Trade without conditions.February 25, 2017 at 1:07 AM

      Ireland would have to circumnavigate the UK to deliver its trade. Very expensive and who would pay?

      Delete
    2. Circumnavigate the UK? What are you taking about? Have you seen a map, it's surrounded by water. It's a straight sail for a ship to Spain or France.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 25, 2017 at 8:08 PM

      No English roads and no chanel tunnel. Very expensive shipping is. Would Scotland subsidise Stena and P&O to travel to Dublin Port! Looks like Scotland could be in shit street and moreso if the Nat sis continue with their anti Trump crap.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2February 25, 2017 at 8:12 PM

      Englands gonna be great its gonna be amazing we're going to build a great wall, we're going to have trade deals with everone except Ireland and fash Nat sis jocko thikos

      Delete
    5. English Loyalist ArmyFebruary 25, 2017 at 9:32 PM

      All possible if you English hating pricks get your way.

      Delete
    6. Ships transport in bulk direct to a port. Lorries transport in very small quantities and get stuck in traffic. 90% of world trade is shipped because it is cheaper. Your argument is flawed.

      Delete
    7. Fine, just ship them avoiding English and Welsh roads. You must be an expert in logistics! So Scotland can circumnavigate English roads to do direct trade to the EU at a profit? Would that be from the Port of Leith?

      Delete
    8. Glasgow Working Class 2February 26, 2017 at 4:02 AM

      When the fash nat sis get independance they will have to get a variation in the Barnett formula to use our roads. Our roads are for english and welsh lorries only not foreign lorries

      Delete
    9. Glasgow Working Class 3February 26, 2017 at 4:04 AM

      english and welsh trucks using the channel tunnel will use it for free fash nat sis and irish trucks will pay a toll

      Delete
    10. English Loyalist ArmyFebruary 26, 2017 at 4:26 AM

      please go jockos we have had enough of you racists

      Delete
    11. We were talking about Ireland here but yes there are several ports in use in Scotland and also a very large one in use in England.

      However, to add to this Scotland/Ireland/the UK, make most of their money exporting non-tangible goods. Examples of these would be banking services, legal services and intellectual property. You don't need roads for that, you need an attractive trade deal. Hence why Australian firms are looking to Ireland.

      Delete
  5. Individual and Collective

    Anarchists believe in the inherent dignity and humanity of the individual. But this dignity and humanity can only be fully realised in a co-operative, egalitarian society. This is why we are in favour of working together collectively and being organised. It is incorrect to equate anarchism with individualism or chaos.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Dugdale's Suicide SquadFebruary 25, 2017 at 3:39 PM

    David SchneiderVerified account‏@davidschneider Feb 24

    Just how bad must Labour seem for people to say "actually, I prefer to have no hospital"? #Copeland

    ReplyDelete
  7. Trump's Golden Shower of KippersFebruary 25, 2017 at 3:40 PM

    Ash J‏@AshAgony 12 hours ago

    Phoenix-area teacher resigns after tweeting about killing immigrants: http://ktar.com/story/1468093/phoenix-area-teacher-resigns-allegedly-tweeting-killing-immigrants/ …

    ReplyDelete
  8. In other news Dr Samuel Johnson proven to be right after all these years.

    False patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel. Isn't that true Duggie A?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scoundrels may try to pass themselves off as patriots, but no true patriot can be called a scoundrel

      Delete
    2. Wee Manny still hiding from PatriotsFebruary 25, 2017 at 10:12 PM

      So no Nazi patriot can be a scoundrel ?

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 26, 2017 at 4:00 AM

      Its impossible to be a nationalist if your english

      Till we have built Jerusalem,
      In Englands green & pleasant Land.

      Delete
  9. BritNat twats with zero sense or irony or self-awarenessFebruary 25, 2017 at 11:35 PM

    Lindsay Bruce‏@RogueCoder250 1 hour ago

    Westminster bubble: "Too many foreigners. We're leaving EU, curbing immigration."
    SNP: "Sod that! #indyref2."
    Westminster bubble: "RACISTS!"

    PMSL!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Leon Trotsky Red ArmyFebruary 26, 2017 at 1:20 AM

      Just make your comment instead of links! Makes sense Nat si bhoy.

      Delete
    2. your an eejit, but good looking so I forgive you

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 26, 2017 at 4:29 AM

      yummy commie , orange lodge, ukip sandwich

      Delete