The results of four YouGov poll questions on Brexit commissioned by the SNP have just been released. I gather they were part of a much longer poll that included a straight question on independence, so unless the results are being released in stages, the likelihood is that we are seeing the figures most favourable to the Scottish Government's position.
Probably the most important finding is a decisive 51% to 29% majority in favour of the Scottish Government's proposals for Scotland remaining in the single market being taken seriously by the UK government and raised in negotiations with the EU. That's pretty embarrassing for Theresa May because we already know she's decided to do the complete opposite.
By a margin of 49% to 23%, respondents feel the Scottish Parliament should be consulted before Article 50 is triggered. This question is asked in the context of the legal challenge before the Supreme Court, but of course the letter of the law and the spirit of the law are not necessarily the same thing - even if the court ruling goes the wrong way, there's nothing to stop the UK government respecting the Sewel Convention and giving the Scottish Parliament its proper role in the process. That is clearly what the public want to see happen.
As you'd expect, people who voted Yes to independence in 2014 are strongly in favour of the Scottish Government's stance on both of the above questions. More interesting, though, is that No voters are literally split down the middle, which raises the possibility that the UK government being seen to make no meaningful attempt to compromise could start to erode support for the union as the months go by.
If the independence numbers from this poll are being withheld, it's difficult to know what to read into that. The SNP obviously wouldn't want to publish a poll showing a drop in support for independence, but then they probably wouldn't want to publish a poll showing a no change position either. You could also make the case that they would withhold a poll showing a dramatic increase in support for Yes, because that might put too much pressure on themselves to call a referendum quickly. I suspect they might have been tempted to publish a poll showing a middling jump for Yes into the high 40s, but that's just a guess.
* * *