Thursday, January 26, 2017

Kalamity Kez Krushed in Kilmarnock as SNP win by-election on 9% swing

Tonight's by-election triumph for the SNP on East Ayrshire Council is a seemingly quite rare example  under the STV system of a 'hold' both in theory and in practice - the vacancy was caused by the death of an SNP councillor, and the SNP also won the popular vote in the word last time.  However, the result in 2012 was about as near as you can get to a dead heat (Labour trailed by only 0.7%), so the fact that the SNP are now almost 20% clear tells its own story.

Kilmarnock East & Hurlford by-election result (26th January 2017) :

SNP 48.7% (+2.0)
Labour 29.4% (-16.6)
Conservatives 20.1% (+12.7)
Libertarian 1.8% (n/a)

As usual, the numbers above are based on my own calculation, and differ a little from the ones posted on the Britain Elects Twitter account (which as far as I can see are very slightly inaccurate).

On the face of it, this looks not much better than a 'no change' result for the SNP, with the real movement being between Labour and Tory.  However, appearances may well be deceptive - there could easily have been substantial movement from Labour to the SNP which was partly offset by ex-SNP No voters switching to the Tories.

If repeated across the country in May, a 2% net boost in the SNP vote would arguably be a tad underwhelming - it would only put them in the mid-30s.  However, we always have to bear in mind that local by-elections tend to have low turnouts (27% in this case) and that Tory supporters are typically more motivated to go out and vote when others don't bother.  The limited opinion poll evidence we have suggests that the SNP are continuing to do much better than mid-30s - although the prevalence of independent candidates in rural areas may mean that they won't do quite as well in local elections as they would in other types of election.

Whatever we may think of the SNP's result tonight, there's not even any room for discussion that this is another catastrophe for Labour, which leads me to wonder if there's just as outside chance that Kezia Dugdale might fall on her sword after May.  An obvious comparison would be John Swinney's sudden decision to resign as SNP leader after his party did worse than expected in the relatively unimportant 2004 European Parliament elections.  But there's the rub - is it actually possible for Labour to fare worse than expected?  Most of the losses are already psychologically factored in.

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44 comments:

  1. I was raised in East Ayrshire,an increased Tory vote is a concern from this mining area who totally despised Maggie Thatcher and the whole Tory party, I can only surmise this was the loyalist vote which is very strong in Ayrshire. Bigotry rules ok !

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    1. It's not called the, "Ruth Davidson No Surrender Party," for nothing.

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    2. Agree, Sheena. I'm from Irvine and noticed direct switch from Lab > Con based on recent election in Irvine West - and I've recently talked to several acquaintances / friends of mine from Irvine who will now vote Tory - and all of them drink in true blue pubs.. that tells me quite a lot, as I have known these guys since I was a boy and grew with it.

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    3. Agree with your comments Sheena. Our parents and grandparents who saw what the tories did to ayrshire will be fuming.

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    4. Very nice comment, good to see from someone who grew up a member in the orange order, now these biggots you speak of is this including you own father who worked his fingers to the bone to provide for you or would this be the same miners like your brothers whom you castigated for striking against maggie even although you were not in the country at the time, are these the biggots you refer to????

      Further should we infer that you hated your mother in law: the ex tory councillor???

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  2. Kilmarnock East and Hurlford, to be more specific, James.. excellent result, and augurs well for North Ayr Council to be handed on a plate to the SNP in May, following the arrogant triumphalism of the Labour crowd last year, creaming themselves at taking control of NAC through beating Nicola's father by a whisker with the help of Tory voters with their 2nd vote. Labour will be lucky to hold on to 5 seats, by my reckoning).

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    1. 5 in East Ayrshire? SNP will only stand 18 candidates, winning them all means that 14 other candidates are needed to make up the 32 members.

      It's not likely that the Tories will take the bulk of them, not here

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    2. Tories will chase the unionist /bigot vote and over time the majority will see the party for what it is.

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  3. Kilmarnock East & Hurlford (East Ayshire) result:
    SNP: 48.7% (+2.1)
    LAB: 29.4% (-16.6)
    CON: 20.1% (+12.7)
    LBT: 1.8% (+1.8)

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  4. 9.8% swing from SLab

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    Replies
    1. No, the swing is a bit smaller than that.

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    2. OK, whatever... my main point is good result for SNP..?

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  5. Glasgow Working Class 2January 27, 2017 at 1:25 AM

    Benefits dependency culture will vote for survival. The Nat si Gov only offer Nat si ism and no jobs then blame the English.

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    Replies
    1. you're supposed to be pretending to be labour you shit for brains kipper sockpuppet

      Delete
    2. Kipper sick puppet is a multiple person professional trolling unit of the unionist Propaganda machine. They are shite at it too. Best just to skip their posts. You can sometimes get a laugh but generally just a distraction.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2January 27, 2017 at 1:54 AM

      Whit a knob ye are.

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    4. Absolute bloody state of this.

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    5. Glasgow working class. natsi really!! Disgruntled labour man? SNP bad because they keep stuffing labour.

      Delete
  6. Glasgow Working Class 2January 27, 2017 at 1:52 AM

    Swings tae ra two right wing Tory parties. Seems ra Kilmarnock people want tae hing oan tae what they have got and fuck the poor. Nae wonder the Nat sis will not raise tax for public services. Aye Scotland has changed indeed . Thatcherism has won hands down.....Coal miners! Who are they.......!

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    Replies
    1. Jings hoots ma boab you Jockos! I am most definitiley scowteesh you kenneth?

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    2. Sorry - Glasgow non-Working Arse

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  7. Kipper sick puppet ho ho am nicking that GWC away back tae yer orange order fuckwit pals and tell them Scotland is going to be independent ya plastic prentendy card board scot ye

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  8. Bumblefuck kipper tories for unityJanuary 27, 2017 at 8:03 AM

    Jim Waterson ‏@jimwaterson 7h

    Mentions of "special relationship" in Theresa May's speech: 8
    Number of times Theresa May's name was misspelled in White House briefing: 3

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. She did take a quaich as the gift and The Donald is teetotal.......

      Delete
  9. Bumblefuck kipper tories for unityJanuary 27, 2017 at 8:03 AM

    Self Loathian ‏@lothian_sky 10h

    @RuthDavidsonMSP flirting with a homophobic fascist for the scraps off his table. Makes you proud eh Ruth?

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 27, 2017 at 11:03 AM

      Name homophobic fascist.

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    2. Absolute bloody state of this.

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  10. Glasgow Working Class 2January 27, 2017 at 9:53 AM

    Kezia still on course to be FM this year. Can't wait to see the Fash cry.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 27, 2017 at 11:57 AM

      Mon Conan you know its a Nat si impersonator.

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    2. State of this.

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  11. The council elections will indeed decide whether,as British Labour hope,that their exclusion from political influence in Scotland is a temporary affair or perhaps more indicative of a longer term decline.
    If the latter,then they may have to face the fact that it is they who have to change and not the voters.

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    Replies
    1. Never. Eventually the scales will fall from voters eyes and they will see the true nature of SNPBad and return to dutifully voting Labour. Or something.

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  12. There are a lot of Orange Bigots in Ayrshire, so it's not surprising they would find a home in the Tory party.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 27, 2017 at 4:26 PM

      Trump supporters, he is Orange.

      Delete
  13. Has anybody else noticed that Nelly Oliphaunt's Orkney propaganda show has magnificently smashed one of the mental Yoon's favourite attack lines.

    How can Orkney be the most British place on Earth. The ancient British capital of British Britain. AND so overwhelmingly Norwegian that they'd happily be partitioned off from an independent Scotland?

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  14. James do,your headlines still temporarily contain the added 50% sensation in honour of the regular media? Or is this permanent now?

    ReplyDelete
  15. A The Donald surrogate comments.

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  16. A The Donald surrogate comments.

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  17. If Daisley is writing for the Mail and portraying the SNP as neo-Nazis, he wants to be careful, he'll have the Mail readers voting SNP in droves.

    ReplyDelete