Friday, January 6, 2017

It's beginning to dawn on some of our leading unionist journalists that an indyref is coming very soon

The title is an ironic tribute to Kenny "Devo or Death" Farquharson, who ever since the shock of the Leave vote has been tying himself up in knots trying to convince himself that Brexit doesn't need to have any serious consequences, and more specifically that it needn't have the obvious consequence of a second independence referendum.  (Wait a minute here, old boy.  Independence isn't devo, so it must be...death!  It can't...won't...mustn't happen!)  First of all he kidded himself that Theresa May cared so much about averting an indyref that she would "triangulate" Brexit in a way that would be acceptable to Nicola Sturgeon.  When even he had to admit to himself that was in the realms of fantasy, he then worked himself into a frenzy about an entirely fictional concept known as "the UK single market", which he decided on the basis of zero evidence that Sturgeon must secretly share his obsession with.  Now all he's got left is the notion that Sturgeon is somehow deliberately allowing herself to be 'beaten by the clock'.  He cites as evidence a BBC interview in which she said exactly the same thing she's been saying for ages - that an indyref is likely, but can be averted if the UK government does a U-turn and seeks a soft Brexit.  On the basis of that, Kenny claims to be seeing signs that "Nats" are "beginning" (classic weasel word) to realise that an indyref may not be happening any time soon.  Not that any of them are actually saying that, of course, but he can see it in their faces, even though he's not actually looking at their faces.

Now, I'll make a small concession here - it's possible that an early indyref may not happen.  The snag for Kenny, though, is that we can say with a very high level of confidence that one of the following WILL happen...

a) The UK will stay in the single market, and free movement of people will be retained.

OR

b) The UK will transfer enormous powers to the Scottish Parliament, including powers that are generally only associated with a sovereign state, to enable Scotland to remain in the single market after the rest of the UK leaves.

OR

c) Genuine Devo Max will be granted as compensation for Hard Brexit occurring without any special status for Scotland within Europe.

OR

d) There will be a second independence referendum by 2020.

Which of those four options do you think is by far the most likely?  Yeah, exactly.  Somewhere, very deep down, Kenny knows it too.  Incidentally, a) can probably still be regarded as the second most likely possibility, albeit a very long distance behind d).  All hell will break loose if that happens.

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41 comments:

  1. It'll be d)

    b) would be almost acceptable, but not on your Nelly as far as Theresa is concerned.

    Nicola is playing a great game.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 6, 2017 at 8:39 PM

      Knickerless is just fondling her knicker elastic. She knows she has to keep you fundamentalist English haters on board but ultimately she knows she is losing the argument. She wants to hand Scotland over to German economic control. It will not happen. Sorry chaps but do try getting an independent Scottish economic plan instead of crawling on your knees to johnie foreigner.

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    2. Glasgow knee crawling class 1 to Orange Lizzie and Mother Theresa.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2January 6, 2017 at 10:12 PM

      Your comment shows your anti Scottish bigotry. You clearly have no Scottish ancestors! Where did you crawl into Scotland from!

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    4. Gwc2 nobody is interested in what you think. Go away both the 3 of you.

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    5. "Nicola is playing a great game".

      Ha! Nonsense. Not that its a game anyway, with 5 million lives involved. But if it were, say, snakes and ladders, then wee nippy has been playing it for ten years and lands on a snake every time she rolls the die. Indyref - fail. Securing the majority - fail. Brexit kickstarting the revolution - fail. Appeals to EU leaders - fail.

      Yes, a masterful performance indeed.

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    6. You mistake me for someone who gives a damn what you think Aldo,

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    7. Then why bother replying?

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  2. Agreed. There's no doubt that d) would be Farage's dream scenario. Thats the route to what he'll successfully sell as a brexit betrayal, and to a Trump-style insurgency campaign for the 2020 UK general election with Farage aiming to scoop the pot of discontented bitter leavers.

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    1. And thereby end the so-called united kingdom for ever.

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  3. So, once again, NS has deftly placed the ball into the britnats' court. It's either soft brexit or IndyRef2 and the end of the so-called united kingdom. The last thing May and Westminster britnats want to be seen to be doing is giving in to the Scots.
    I have a feeling our friends in Europe will make damn sure it’s a hard brexit.
    It's all ticking along nicely.

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    1. Hard brexit means hard indy - trade tarriffs and border checkpoints between Scotland and England, in the event you actually get into the EU (which is doubtful).

      "It's all ticking along nicely"

      Haha!! No, it's not... ;0)

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  4. It is d) for me.

    The Tories are deluded enough to think they will get a good brexit deal from the EU29 and win indyref2.

    They will never willingly concede any more powers to Scotland.

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  5. Yep, Scotland's Brexit in a nutshell and it all hinges on Westminster's intransigence.

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  6. Why do you think (c) would be acceptable to Nicola?

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    1. Because genuine Devo Max (which obviously is highly unlikely to be offered) is so close to independence that it would be a compromise worth accepting.

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    2. Genuine devo max means fiscal self reliance - no bail outs. I don't think such a thing would be pursued by the SNP, ever. The last thing they want is Scottish people getting a taster of independence before its a done deal.

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  7. Good blog James. Plenty of food for thought there , you believe that strategy at this point will dictate , I am of the opinion that the force of events will take over everything and we will need to be very nimble to escape.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 6, 2017 at 10:19 PM

      The Nat si anti English strategy is very nimble and has failed. The Union is on the accendancy. The Jock fash ists have failed. The attempt to sell Scotland out to the German fash is failing miserably.

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    2. More craven snivellings from the Britnat si operative. Its crayon-flecked ravings would be hilarious if they weren't so abject.

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    3. TbH I cant even undestand what that utter tool is talking about jeesus where was it educated I would complain sonny about it I think you have been shortchanged

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    4. Thats to GWC or whatever it calls itself

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  8. I wonder if there is a scenario where there is a "Hard Brexit" and no 2nd Indy ref. For example would the Scottish Greens do a deal to block an Indy ref bill if the Unionists agreed to back a significant amount of Green policies?

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 6, 2017 at 11:15 PM

      There are no green policies. The greens are just opportunist politicians milking the system. And who can blame them as they attempt to divert taxpayers money from the Joke Nat sis to themselves.

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    2. GWC2 We might be joke Nat sis but it is you guys we are laughing at

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    3. If the Greens were to block an indyref (they'd have to actively vote it down, remember, abstaining wouldn't be enough) they would take an enormous electoral hit, and would lose a large chunk of their own membership. It would also contradict everything they've been saying recently. I can't see any circumstances in which that would happen.

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    4. Speaking as a member of the Scottish Greens, our party like the SNP became 7 times bigger after indyref1 and these were Yes voters. So it's absolutely inconceivable that Greens would vote against indyref2.

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    5. The SNP may permit fracking, which may compel the Greens to vote down another independence referendum in retribution. Or they may force the SNP to grant them a leading role in any future yes campaign. This would drag the campaign even further left than the last effort and doom it to defeat. But what would Patrick Harvie care? He'll have upped his profile and averted actual independence, thereby avoiding having to face actual scary stuff with consequences.

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  9. Very succinct. Those 4 options, a or b or c or d, would serve as a cut-out-'n-keep guide with which to win just about any discussion about Indy ref 2. Especially given the UK government's hopeless tactics.

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  10. Most unionist journalists subscribe to the herd instinct prevalent amongst supporters of the UK state and draw succour from polls designed to show a majority of Scots also in favour of that position.
    What happens when polls start to show them to be in a minority will be interesting to see.
    Thanks to the National Survey (circa 2M respondents),the SNP are now the only organisation in Scotland which can claim to know authoritatively where Scots stand on a number of issues,including independence.
    Sample polls carried out by unionists have a track record of being misleading and designed to bolster the constitutional status quo so any decent journalist would treat them with scepticism.
    But I suppose that doesn't fit with the political agenda of their paymasters.

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    1. That already happened, about a week or two before the first referendum. They went crazy, remember? Violated the purdah, made up a front page Vow, invaded Scotland with Labour politicians and supporters from England. They wheeled Gordon Brown out. The Queen told us to be careful.

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  11. Today's googledoodle commemorates the Scotsman who invented Global time. Without which no aspect of modern life would work.

    But we're too stupid to be independent of course.

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    1. The googledoodle shows a flying train. It might be a maglev though. None of the wheels is in contact with the track.

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  12. It's amazing how many people confuse not wanting to be dictated to by Westminster as being Anti-English

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 7, 2017 at 9:48 PM

      You are not being dictated to. But you want the EU to dictate. And you are anti English but do not have the bottle to admit it.

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    2. Hey, Glasgow Working Class 2, why don't you go back to ironing your union jack flag for your next Orange Order march and leave the politics discussion to the grown ups who know what they are talking about?

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2January 9, 2017 at 11:10 PM

      Nat si bigot. You hate the English and now the OO. Is there anyone you fash like.

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    4. GWC2, Nope, not anti-English, if my dad had been born further South he would have got wet feet & I still have family & friends who are English. I think you will find there are arseholes everywhere & you would apear to fall into that camp, & talking of English, it would help others if you actually learned to write some

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  13. "An indyref is coming very soon"

    (Yawn)

    They'd better hurry up and get on with it then, so the unionists can beat them again and we can actually talk about something else in Scottish politics for a change - like the failing education system or the keystone cops.

    Anyway, happy new indyref-free year to you all ;0)

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  14. Aldo: Every GWC's collective troll wet dream.

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