Friday, January 27, 2017

If the next No campaign targets lower-income voters with an anti-immigration pitch, it could backfire

I've been asked to cast my eye over YouGov's latest Brown-esque "interventions" in the independence debate.  First of all, as you may have seen on Twitter, they're currently running an "independence poll" that uses the mind-bogglingly ludicrous question "Should Scotland remain a member of the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?".  That's identical to the question that BMG were rightly castigated for using a few months ago, and which they thankfully abandoned in their most recent poll.  It's depressing to have to point this out yet again, but the reason the question is ludicrous is that the United Kingdom is a unitary state, rather than an organisation with "members" (as amply demonstrated by the Supreme Court only the other day), and "leaving the United Kingdom" is not synonymous with independence - Scotland could leave the UK to become part of another state, for example.

I see no reason to suppose that the next indyref will ask a question other than "Should Scotland be an independent country?", which was after all the Electoral Commission's own suggestion in the first place.  However, even if there were much chance of a change, there is no way on God's Earth that the Electoral Commission would ever approve the "leave the United Kingdom" question that London pollsters seem to be hankering after, because a) it's inaccurate, b) it's misleading, c) it's biased, and d) it lacks clarity.

It's important not to jump to the conclusion that YouGov's poll is intended for publication, though - it might just be an internal testing poll (although even that would raise troubling questions about the firm's prejudices on this subject).  Alternatively, they may have been commissioned by a partisan client who insisted upon that question for propaganda purposes.

Separately, YouGov have today released an aggregate of their internal polling on independence between late August and mid-December (using the correct question, I'm glad to say).  The results show a modest swing to Yes since the first indyref : Yes 46% (+1), No 54% (-1).  The point made in the analysis is that the Yes camp would have made more progress by now if it hadn't been for a significant minority of Brexit supporters switching sides from Yes to No.  I've been a bit sceptical about that argument when it's been made in the past, because even before the EU referendum there had been a degree of movement in both directions.  However, the YouGov aggregate does show that 25% of people who voted Yes in 2014 and Leave in 2016 have switched to the No camp.  I'd suggest that's actually quite encouraging, because I suspect the next Yes campaign is not going to be relentlessly about Europe, and there may well be ways of bringing those former Yes supporters "back home" - which would nudge us closer to the 50% mark.

How would the No campaign counter that?  Are they going to run a really nasty campaign based on fear of immigration from EU countries, and possibly Turkey?  Maybe they will (Blair McDougall seemed to be hinting at that the other day), but if they do, they'll risk losing middle-class pro-European voters.  A particularly high 14% of the people who voted No in 2014 and Remain in 2016 say they don't know how they would vote in the next indyref, so there's a lot at stake here.  Remember that affluent voters are more likely to turn out, so if No become more reliant on lower-income voters without a university degree, that could easily work against them.

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72 comments:

  1. That Twitter photo might suggest it could be a private poll that won't be published.

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  2. Glasgow Working Class 2January 27, 2017 at 7:15 PM

    Scotland is an independent country and the people voted to remain in the Union with her neighbour. The question should be do you wish to remain in the Union.
    Immigration as an issue is for those who wish to stir the shite and is irrelevant.
    However Nat sis just go for the referendum and stop talking about it. If the UK succeeds in its trade aspirations and the economy remains stable you Nat sis will be in the wilderness for decades.

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    1. Did you miss the Supreme Court ruling then?

      Anyway, your question is not the same as the yougov question, is it, troll? Asking if Scotland wants to end the bipartite treaty of union with the kingdom of England would at least be accurate. YouGovs wording implies there would still be a United Kingdom following Scottish independence.

      Away and taste the fake tan on Donald's baws.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2January 27, 2017 at 8:15 PM

      The Supreme Court ruling was a non event. Knickerless knew the court would not give her any say and who would give that wee shit any say on important issues.
      We are out of the EU soon. It is up to you gobshit Nat sis to fulfill your rhetoric and call a referendum.

      Delete
    3. The poster above is a far-right racist UKIP sockpuppetJanuary 27, 2017 at 10:38 PM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

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    4. Its only pity I know have for you GWC,at first I laughed and thought you were here to amuse us then you got boring now just a sad person,that I have pity for.

      Delete
  3. What % Yes/leavers were there overall, James?

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  4. I would imagine the EU issue would be separated at the next indyref. Either 2 questions or a future referendum/election issue.

    Which would help to retain YES/LEAVE voters.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 27, 2017 at 9:21 PM

      That is why you fash are losers you just imagine things talk a lot and do not back it up with action. Now call the refer en dumb Nat sis.

      Delete
    2. The poster above is a far-right racist UKIP sockpuppetJanuary 27, 2017 at 10:39 PM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  5. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 27, 2017 at 9:08 PM

    Question Nat sis. Why are you shittin yerselves to call a referendum?

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    1. The poster above is a far-right racist UKIP sockpuppetJanuary 27, 2017 at 10:39 PM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2January 27, 2017 at 11:06 PM

      Nat si coward, call your refer en dumb ya Tory. From the by-election last night it looks like your party is on the way oot. Never mind, it was nice while it lasted, but now the world is turning its eyes to Kezia.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2January 28, 2017 at 12:29 AM

      Question Nat sis. Why are you shittin yourselves? Are you scared the Holyrood elite could tumble next after the EU bloodsuckers have to get a job and work for a living.
      Changes on the horizon for all beaurocrats and wasters. The bus companies are desperate for drivers. Maybe Souter could help!

      Delete
    4. The poster above is a far-right racist UKIP sockpuppetJanuary 28, 2017 at 1:10 AM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  6. Data is out of date. Carried out in December and held onto.. Ahem. Things have amplified since 2 weeks ago. Different mood altogether now. Also question is ridiculous. It's deliberate manipulation by the poll commissioners.

    Having said that I would be delighted to go into indi ref 2 on 46%. A year's campaign and Eu fallout would ensure victory. Article 50 has not been triggered yet!

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  7. Glasgow Working Class 2January 28, 2017 at 12:06 AM

    Poor Jock Fash Nat sis ....... Have given up.....Cannae even say if they want a referendum.
    All the public money they wasted for their dream which was a wet one......And now they capitulate and languish in their own urine.....How can you feel sorry for such time wasters when Britain and the USA march on into history.......and the Jock fish fash are now history by their own making.

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    1. The poster above is a far-right racist UKIP sockpuppetJanuary 28, 2017 at 1:10 AM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2January 28, 2017 at 1:34 AM

      The usual repetitive words from a Nat si loser. All down hill for you fash cowards now. When's the refer en dummies?
      All the smart quick talking Nat sis on job seekers soon. Nae expenses any merr. Just hiv tae walk fur an interview or tae the foodbanks.

      Delete
    3. Absolute bloody state of this. Must do better, Cheltenham.

      Delete
    4. Brigade 77 having a slow day and are you taking a compulsory neo-Nazi 101 core course to pass the time away, Heinrich?

      Pity Uncle Joe and Chairman Mao have passed on as they might have selected you for a re-education elective, you half-wit illiterate that the collective you are.

      Also, thank your lucky stars that the Dominie, John MacLean, is also not around for you to feel the cut of the Lochgelly tawse on your ample and accommodating BritNat bahookie.

      Away down to a cheap boozer in Cheltenham and play sticking the heid on another troll with the other trolls (hear Niko, over on Munguin's Republic, thinks you are a pansy pwick ripe for the bayonet and Aldo seems gemme, too. Go and have some fun with the professional BritNat trolls, you hauf-wit eejit)

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    5. Erratum: "that is the collective...".

      Did you spot it, GWC?

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2January 28, 2017 at 8:46 PM

      What I have spotted is you make windbag statements for your own personal satisfaction. None of them are in any way for the benefit of the less well off in Scotland or indeed anywhere on the planet. Old people do tend to obtain flatulence.

      Delete
  8. The childish comments of Glasgow Working Class are really tedious and spoil the blog. Can't they be deleted/removed? What is the point of leaving them there? If he had worthwhile things to say sometimes it would be fine but he is just here to disrupt and quite obviously is ignorant to Scottish politics (maybe paid to troll?). Sheena J.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Glasgow Working Class 2January 28, 2017 at 9:18 AM

    My wrist is aching again. All those thought of Sturgeon not wearing knickers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. So is that you confirming that you really are a colossal wanker then ?

      Delete
  10. I see Mike Dailly has joined the SNP. That's a rather large turnaround.

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    Replies
    1. I've got a little list Mike Dailly? The wonders of Brexit.

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    2. Jesus. At this rate it'll only be George Foulkes left.

      Delete
  11. Glasgow Working Class 2January 28, 2017 at 12:20 PM

    Who Mike Dailly?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Sturgeon is a globalist not a nationalist,if she was a nationalist she would want to protect Scotlands borders,culture,identity,religion,traditions,language,but she is pro mass immigration and multiculturism.She wants no more union with those ghastly English,but she wants a UNION with everyone else.Therefore she is a pathological liar who in fact is the antithesis of everything she professes to be.Has anyone seen her distributing her wealth lately?Maybe she went home to THINK AGAIN.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 28, 2017 at 11:22 PM

      A bit of substance in your comment.

      Delete
    2. *pushes irony Klaxon button*

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2January 29, 2017 at 10:02 AM

      She is anti English. She did want to bring in thousands of Syrians. She would not care if tens of thousands of Scots post independence left Scotland. She does want to join the EU and euro and hand all politicsl and fiscal power over to Herman.

      Delete
    4. Sturgeon is a national socialist who wants to expand her empire wherever possible.She is a control freak,with draconian legislation,such as the named person, were the state is in charge of the child not the parent.She lowers the drink driving limit,whilst she consumes champagne in the back of her limousine then travels home, via a chauffer, of course to her free house.She wines and dines at our expense while she hands out working tax credits to people who work in Asda as they are not paid enough by a multinational conglomerate,and she does zilch to help them earn a descent salary,in fact she helps Asda make even more money,and people still vote for Jimmy Crankie -Sturgeon..You could not make it up.She and her husband earn about 500,000 pounds a year plus the freebies,and tell me one thing shes done for the working man.She is actually against the working man,She uses the flag and national identity to stir up the masses,into a cult like hysteria about nationalism that is in fact globalism.Her mps are like robots who agree on everything,if you disagree with the dear leader you would be history.Stalin would be proud.

      Delete
    5. another Daily Mail yoon imbecile

      away and suck the orange fae Trumps baws ya kipper loon

      Delete
    6. The First Minster of Scotland is paid the same way and wage as every other First Minister has been. Defined by the RULES set down by the scottish parliament which are 1000 times more strict than the westminster expenses gravy train.

      The westminster MP expenses scandal, which the scottish public will not soon forget, was utter dominated by Labour and the Tories sucking the taxpayer dry for Duck Houses and Moats.

      Nigel Farage is a public schoolboy multi-millionaire who used to be a stockbroker in the city of London. In other words, HE IS THE ELITE you dumbass.

      Theresa May is Oxbridge educated, is also a multi-millionaire who used to work for the Bank of England. THAT is the very DEFINITION of the ELITE you clueless twat.

      She's also married to a hedge fund mogul overseeing more than a Trillion in investment funds. VERY working class.

      Blair and Brown tour the US, Middle East and Europe selling their 'services' to the highest bidder (tens of millions earned from Dictators and Banks) while the Labour party just keeps right on making Labour Lords because the House of Lords is REALLY working class. LOL

      Face it, you yourself have about as much in common with the working class as David Cameron did because you're a witless kipper sockpuppet with the IQ of a peanut.

      You clearly know fuck all about scottish politics or you would know EVERY party signed up for, voted and supported named person. That means Davidson's tories and Dugdale's Red Tories you kipper dumbass.

      Now fuck off back to your racist chums on stormfront lite.

      Delete
    7. To progressive commie above,you are such a reprobate that you failed to address any of the issues above,but in typical leftist style just hurled abuse as you are unable to answer any of the points addressed.Your lack of intellect and vocabulary only allows for the vacume of vileness and cursing,your empty vessel blurts out in total ignorance.THE TRUTH WILL SET YOU FREE.

      Delete
  13. I've deleted Bill McLean's comment. A reminder once again that I intend to delete any future comments giving me instructions (whether direct or implied) on how to deal with "the GWC problem". I have answered all the points over and over again. My answers will not change. If you don't want to read GWC's comments, scroll past them. If you feel unable to scroll past them for some reason, avoid the comments section altogether. If you feel unable to do that, stop visiting the blog.

    Enough.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scroll past the Troll.It snot that difficult.

      Has Mike Dailly given a reason why he's changed his mind?

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    2. Not yet. It's such a sudden and dramatic 360 that I wonder if his account's been hacked.

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    3. I presume Nicola Sturgeon wouldn't have sent her tweet welcoming him unless she'd been pretty sure it wasn't a hoax.

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    4. Having said that, I've just taken a quick look at his Twitter page, and the contrast between three days ago and now does look a bit bonkers. Maybe you're right.

      Delete
  14. An MP has confirmed that Mike Dailly has jumped ship for real. SLAB really do appear to be going the way of the Lib Dems.

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  15. Hey GWC just a wee reminder please walk upright every morning will ya saves yer nuckles im the long run you are awful sometimes but I like you

    ReplyDelete
  16. Jimmy, you guys need to get on this. There are always more when this happens. And stuff it with the folks complaining about what he said in the past. As ben Franklin told John adams, if you want your own country, you need to accept your countrymen. Or something like that. These folks have friends all around.

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  17. I think perhaps Mike Dailly realises that all the things that he thought he was voting No to protect (internationalism,part of something bigger, etc) are now only available with independence.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 29, 2017 at 6:19 PM

      Strange decision when the Nat sis are running scared of a referendum.

      Delete
    2. It's called holding your powder!. Also, to above, I bet others are seeing the same thing.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2January 29, 2017 at 7:05 PM

      When the powder is wet it cannot be dried. You Nat sis are finished now for generations. You had the chance which you took and lost now you are running scared when you had your 2nd chance. Our over populated Holyrood will continue to bleed the people. Sometimes the people wake up. Lets hope sooner than later.

      Delete
    4. I'm a biological scientist with a reasonable background in chemistry. Care to explain to me why powder cannot be dried?

      As to Holyrood being 'overpopulated' we could remove all the Unionist troughers who never contribute anything other than bleating SNP Baaaaaaad right enough.

      Delete
    5. Theresa Trump and the BrexitearsJanuary 29, 2017 at 8:31 PM

      The Yoon hysterics are furious WE control the timing and not them.

      They are impotent, as usual.

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2January 29, 2017 at 8:32 PM

      You are the expert then so explain the process and how long it takes. How come we only ever had x ammount of MPs to serve all subjects in Scotland and we now have x ammout of MSP'S with less resposibility in the devolved parliament. It is a gravy train. It is nothing to do with party politics. We only require the same ammount of MSP'S as we had (still have MP'S).

      Delete
    7. Kipper Fuckwit Class 2January 29, 2017 at 8:53 PM

      The shit for brains kipper sockpuppet thinks there should only be 1 tory MSP and 1 Labour MSP

      ye didn't think it through, did ye dumbass? lol

      Delete
    8. Glasgow Working Class 2January 29, 2017 at 10:05 PM

      I did think it through and around 60 MSP'S is sufficient whatever party they are in.

      Delete
    9. Absolute bloody state of this.

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  18. New poll out today: Support for independence at 46%, support for indyref at 27%. More Yes voters switching to no after the brexit vote than the other way round.

    It isn't looking good for separatism.

    Should poll findings like these continue, the SNP will miss their time window for holding a referendum before brexit and will have failed their restless supporters.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 29, 2017 at 8:53 PM

      They want to miss the timeline Aldo. The Nat sis are milking the public purse under the Union. Does anyone seriously think the Nat si MP'S really want to vote thenselves out of a job. And the MSP'S know thay will eventually be slashed in numbers. The Holyrood talking shop is not going to last in its present form.

      Delete
    2. The poster above is a far-right racist UKIP sockpuppetJanuary 29, 2017 at 8:54 PM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  19. Theresa Trump and the BrexitearsJanuary 29, 2017 at 8:29 PM

    Kipper Theresa's very public visit up Trumps backside was clearly a triumph.

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 29, 2017 at 8:45 PM

      Aye wee Knickerless wis so far up Kim Yung Ecks erse she could see his large salary.
      And all that globetrotting around Europe sucking up Merkels erse trying to sell Scotland oot and the occasional visit to loyal Dundee and the Nat sis still scrape the barrel in the polls.

      Delete
    2. The poster above is a far-right racist UKIP sockpuppetJanuary 29, 2017 at 8:51 PM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2January 29, 2017 at 8:58 PM

      Screw the coughin lids down its back.

      Delete
    4. Absolute bloody state of this.

      Delete
  20. Theresa Trump and the BrexitearsJanuary 29, 2017 at 8:50 PM

    Kipper Theresa's very public visit up Trumps backside was clearly a triumph.

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

    ReplyDelete
  21. Glasgow Working Class 2January 29, 2017 at 10:29 PM

    Ive made a mess of my pants now. Must try to stop thinking about Sturgeon without knickers. Semen is such a persistent stain.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 29, 2017 at 10:56 PM

      Seman Staines, Master Bates and Wodger the Cabin Boy all available in good Nat si bookshops. Ben Doon an touch yer toes available soon in 3D. All proceeds towards the next Nat si referendum 3007AD.

      Delete
    2. Absolute bloody state of this.

      Delete