Friday, October 28, 2016

Support for independence stands at 47% in new Poll of Polls

An otherwise surprisingly fair piece in the Economist about the prospects for Scottish independence is slightly tarnished at the start with a statement about the current polling situation which is flatly untrue - in fact, it's basically the polar opposite of the truth.  We're told that "opinion polls now put support for a 'Scoxit' from the United Kingdom at or below the 45% achieved when the question was formally put in 2014".  Rubbish.  Every single opinion poll that has asked about independence since the EU referendum has put the Yes vote above 45%.  The lowest figure has been 46% (albeit admittedly the most common figure is only a little higher, at 47%).  Even if you include the dodgy BMG poll, which was misrepresented in much of the media as an "independence poll" when it clearly wasn't, the lowest figure would be 45%.  It is literally impossible to find a poll that can even be misrepresented as showing that Yes support has fallen since September 2014.  Even at a stretch, then, the most that the Economist are entitled to say is that "opinion polls now put support for 'Scoxit' from the UK at or above the 45% achieved in 2014".

So how did the word "below" get into the article in the first place? The most likely - and disturbing - answer is that the author didn't even bother to check the numbers, and just assumed that the narrative being pushed by the right-wing London press must have some vague basis in reality.  Always a schoolboy error, that.  Perhaps the time has come to challenge the misinformation with an update of this blog's Poll of Polls.

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 47.0% (-3.8)
No 53.0% (+3.8)

The reason for the drop in the Yes vote is that the last update was way back in late July, and all but one of the four polls taken into account at that point had been conducted in the days immediately after the EU referendum, when there appeared to be a sharp pro-Yes swing which later receded.  But as you can see, Yes support remains 2.3% higher than its September 2014 level.   Given that most firms now weight by recalled indyref vote, we can be pretty confident that's a genuine increase in support.

The methodology for the Poll of Polls remains exactly the same as before - only the most recent poll from each firm is included, and if a firm hasn't reported for more than three months, they are left out altogether.  Therefore, the five polls taken into account on this occasion are YouGov from late August (Yes 46%, No 54%), TNS from August/early September (Yes 47%, No 53%), Survation from early September (Yes 47%, No 53%), Ipsos-Mori from early September (Yes 48%, No 52%) and Panelbase from mid-September (Yes 47%, No 53%).

Needless to say, the dodgy poll from BMG has been excluded, because contrary to the bogus claims that were made about it (including disgracefully by the firm themselves), it simply didn't ask a question about independence.  It instead asked whether Scotland should "remain a member (sic) of the United Kingdom" or "leave the United Kingdom".  For the avoidance of doubt, "leaving the United Kingdom" can in no sense be regarded as a proxy form of words for "independence".  There are several potential outcomes to leaving the UK, of which independence is only one.  Here are some others -

1) Becoming a self-governing dependency of the UK.  (Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man are all in this position - they are all outside the UK, and indeed outside the EU.)

2) Entering into a free association agreement with the UK.   (This is a form of 'sovereign non-independence'.  The best-known example is perhaps the Cook Islands' relationship with New Zealand.   When the Cook Islands were formally decolonised, they freely agreed to allow New Zealand to continue to make decisions for them on foreign affairs and defence.)

3) Becoming part of another existing sovereign state.  (An example of this is the decision of northern Schleswig, by referendum in 1920, to leave Germany and become part of Denmark.)

Without specifying what Scotland would be leaving the UK to do, the BMG question was utterly meaningless.  I hope we're not going to see any more of that kind of nonsense - and if by any chance we do, I certainly hope that reputable sites like What Scotland Thinks will stop joining in with the pretence that we are somehow dealing with genuine polls on independence.

*  *  *

NOTE : I've had to make a small adjustment to the numbers originally mentioned in this post.  Ironically that's because, for quick reference, I had used the What Scotland Thinks list of polls, which I've since realised contains a little error.

61 comments:

  1. 'What Scotland thinks' will toe the UK line.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I am confused in my own circle of No voters several are now committed to YES.
    Anecdotal evidence from others says the same.
    Prominent No Supporters like Simon Pia ,Eric Joyce but to name 2.
    Yet polls are showing only marginal increase .
    What about EU Nationals surely 100% of them would now switch?
    What about the 16&17 yr olds since 2014?
    Add to that approx. 52000 Scots die each year and majority of them in demographic most opposed to Indy.
    Are the pollsters just using their same lists?
    Are they taking soundings in areas they think are most pro Union,the Mornibgsides and Whitecraigs areas?
    Just doesn't seem real.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. i agree. the polls are being skewed

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    2. i agree. the polls are being skewed

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    3. Take into consideration that a sizable number of former Yes voters now appear to prefer a United Kingdom outwith the EU over an independent Scotland within the EU. The polls aren't any more skewed than they were before.

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    4. Such people exist, but "sizeable number" may be overstating the case.

      Delete
  3. I did two polls on Scottish Independence this week one from Panelbase and one from yougov. Both on Wednesday.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I heard about the Panelbase one from a couple of people.

      Delete
  4. I was frequently asked to complete Panelbase polls in the past. Now I am always 'screened out' when I try to complete one.
    The fact I have always supported independence has nothing to do with that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There are fewer independence polls being commissioned these days.

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    2. All polling is done by UK firms, many with links to UK politicians. I simply don't believe them nowadays. As the saying goes, 'it's who counts the votes' that matters.

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    3. I don't think "simply not believing them" is good enough, to be honest - it's necessary to identify actual errors and deficiencies. YouGov's figures can be challenged because they don't interview 16 and 17 year olds. BMG's figures should be totally disregarded because they use an absurd question. But I can't see any obvious problem with the last Panelbase poll.

      Delete
    4. You are using figures that are supplied by the polling companies. Who checks the numbers that are put into the computer 'file'?
      I maybe need a tinfoil hat, but I believe the British State will do whatever it takes to hold onto its assets. No need to send a gunboat up the Clyde when all it takes is control of numbers to win.

      Delete
    5. If you think poll numbers are fictional, if you think the indyref was rigged, if you think the next indyref will be rigged, why are we even bothering? Constitutional change by democratic means would be impossible - is that what you're saying?

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2October 28, 2016 at 7:06 PM

      James, why have you Nat sis not surged ahead since the Brexit vote considering all the waffle fae you Nat sis?

      Delete
    7. I believe that we will never be allowed to leave the UK if we play by their rules.
      The next vote needs to have international observers, and the postal voting scam needs to be sorted out.

      Delete
    8. Well, I think international observers and a tightening up of postal vote rules are good ideas on their own merits.

      Delete
    9. Glasgow Working Class 2October 28, 2016 at 7:27 PM

      The words of a loser.

      Delete
    10. Rarely has a sentence been so accurately self-described.

      Delete
    11. Glasgow Working Class 2October 28, 2016 at 8:00 PM

      Rarely has a sentence been so accurately self-described by a loser.
      Perhaps the polling station staff were at the fiddle! A Unionist conspiracy perhaps.

      Delete
    12. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its chums at the Daily Suppress whenever it's ready.

      Delete
    13. Whats the scoop on the postal rules.

      Delete
  5. Why are the London commentariat so fixated with what people in Scotland think about the antics of the UK state?
    If they took a poll of people in EU states with regard to the same,they would almost certainly have to conclude that there is not a good feeling towards them and a Hard Brexit is gonna fall,whether they like it or not.
    I am pretty sure that once Scottish doubters realise what they are really up to,they will joining our fellow Europeans in condemning England's Tories.
    They want to live in splendid isolation,so who are we to stand in their way?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Have just completed a very extensive poll via e-rewards. Questions on voting for Indy, Scottish and UK elections. Satisfaction ratings for Nicola, and then the other "award winning" leaders of the lunatic fringe parties. Moved one to a quite large questioning on Social care/services. No indication of who it was for.

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  7. I think the polls are 57% YES
    43% NO.
    I don't believe the NO friendly polls.
    Just my opinion.
    And they will increase for YES.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2October 28, 2016 at 8:12 PM

      If that were the case then the Nat sis would call for a referendum immediately.

      Delete
    2. We'll be having a referendum soon enough, never fear.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2October 28, 2016 at 9:36 PM

      Nae fear you will be trashed by a larger majority. Not every Scots person hates the English like you Nat si fash do.

      Delete
    4. Racist Tory Class 2October 29, 2016 at 12:52 AM

      racist tory sockpuppet twat

      Delete
  8. I was never comfortable with the expression that a consistent demonstration of majority support for indy would be enough to trigger another campaign.
    Given the only possible way to calculate such support would be from the UK polling agencies.
    I'm not conspiracy theorist but I'm not adverse to the notion that they exist.


    Mandela

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2October 28, 2016 at 11:50 PM

      I am adverse tae thinkin you are a Nat si and a loser. And of course attempting to suggest the 2014 ballot was corrupt, maybe....
      All losers cry.

      Delete
    2. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetOctober 29, 2016 at 12:53 AM

      The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2October 29, 2016 at 1:14 AM

      You are a Tory Nat si bhoy. But so thick you do not know it. Fadder forgiv him he is a Nat si small minded Joke Jock Nat si.

      Delete
    4. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its chums at the Daily Suppress whenever it's ready.

      Delete
  9. Bumblefuck tories for unityOctober 29, 2016 at 1:02 AM

    Marius Ostrowski �� ‏@mariusostrowski 7 hours ago

    OH. SWEET. JESUS. Carney to be replaced by Jacob Rees-Mogg in 2018 according to Bloomberg @business #BrexitBritain

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-28/bank-of-england-s-mark-carney-prepares-his-own-


    Paul Kennedy ‏@PaulKenLD Oct 23

    Shoot the messenger: the classic incompetent response of an incompetent #Brexit Government @Conservatives

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/mark-carney-bank-of-england-jacob-rees-mogg-michael-gove-brexit-economy-a7376206.html …

    #BlameForeigners

    ReplyDelete
  10. Glasgow Working Class 2October 29, 2016 at 1:06 AM

    Strange thing about you Jock Nat sis is you do not know you are Tories. You are really that thick in ra heid. I dae try tae feel sorry fur ye!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its chums at the Daily Suppress whenever it's ready.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2October 29, 2016 at 8:54 AM

      Feck aff anonymous coward and take that imposter wi ye. You talk about rigging votes but you Nat sis rigged the election this year, probably with the help of Merkel and Herman. Sieg heil racist Nat si.

      Delete
    3. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its chums at the Daily Suppress whenever it's ready.

      Delete
    4. Seriously McGibbon, you need to lay off the sauce before posting on here. All you are going to do is convince someone that it's worth the effort of tracking you down some more...

      Delete
  11. Glasgow Working Class 2October 29, 2016 at 9:03 AM

    Doesnt anyone else rip the head off it imagining Sturgeon without knickers?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its chums at the Daily Suppress whenever it's ready.

      Delete
  12. We had an exhaustive debate,for two years,on the pros and cons of independence.The people made up their minds.We won't get a majority for independence until 150,000 people have died and been replaced on the electoral role with open minded,outward looking young Scots.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2October 29, 2016 at 11:12 AM

      Open minded cloned ginger haired flagwaving Nat sis!

      Delete
    2. Approx 52,0000 die in Scotland each year so 130000 approx nearer your target now

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2October 29, 2016 at 12:12 PM

      All you Nat sis have to do is identify Unionist voters and kill them.

      Delete
    4. I don't know how many people have to die before the "demographic inevitability" theory finally gets put out of its misery by 150,000 fresh, sensible new people who can see that it's utter rubbish.

      We win or lose by persuading or failing to persuade, not by sitting around for decades waiting for people to die.

      Delete
    5. It's not utter rubbish at all.More No voters than Yes voters die each week.For No to maintain their six point lead they have to persuade Yes voters to No,or persuade a majority of new voters to vote No.The assumption has always been that folk become more resistant to change as they get older and will,therefore,naturally drift to No.I don't think that can be relied upon.We can't rely on young folk remaining loyal to Yes.They can't rely on enough folk drifting to No as they age.I certainly don't advocate hanging about til enough No voters die and I've never heard such a policy being proffered by anyone in the Yes movement.All I'm saying is that demographics are a factor amongst many other,mote important ones.

      I would suggest that the new intake of school teachers are much more open minded about the concept of independence than retiring teachers are now,or were when they entered the profession.The same is probably true for journalists and Kirk ministers.This must have some relevance.

      Delete
    6. "It's not utter rubbish at all."

      It is utter rubbish. It really, really is.

      Delete
    7. Glasgow Working Class 2October 30, 2016 at 11:23 PM

      Anonymous. You have lost the plot in life. Hang yourself from a rafter and stand on an iceblock. Then contemplate what an idiot you are. Turn the heating up.

      Delete
    8. I'd be interested to hear why it really,really is utter rubbish.It might be an idea for you to debunk the myth in an article.
      I'm suggesting that more No voters die each week than Yes voters and therefore the gap between Yes and No will close unless people are persuaded to shift from Yes to No,or a majority of people coming onto the roll support No.Why is that rubbish?

      Delete
    9. "It might be an idea for you to debunk the myth in an article."

      I've already written about it several times. There comes a point where all I can do is roll my eyes to the heavens when the subject just keeps coming up, because for some people "Coffins for Yes" is an article of faith that has moved beyond rational argument.

      Delete
    10. You've never written much about the subject at all,except to rubbish the suggestion without any detailed explanation why.Or atleast not that I've seen.If I've missed it,I'd be glad of you'd point me in the right direction.

      Delete
  13. I reckon that we need a poll asking the independence question that is run by a completely impartial body. This will give us a proper view of where things are at.

    It is one of the tricks to skew polling results then fiddle the actual referendum to suit the status quo. No-one then really questions the outcome because the polls were apparently so close.

    Several of the commenters have queried why independence polls haven't shifted much in favour of YES due to brexit. I concur that this is probably because of 'fiddling' by the Yoons.

    Yes you too GWC2 your probably fiddling away in your dark corner, playing your flute for all it's worth. Take your hand off it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2October 29, 2016 at 11:16 AM

      Wee Knicketless kin blaw ma flute tae her hearts content.
      The OO would be a pretty moderate organisation to monitor an election.

      Delete
    2. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its chums at the Daily Suppress whenever it's ready.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2October 29, 2016 at 3:52 PM

      Pathetic Nat si clone, get yer ain name. I suggest Tartan Tory Racist. Now feck aff back to Germany. That way you won't be around next year when Kezia crushes your Joke Jock party.

      Delete
    4. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its chums at the Daily Suppress whenever it's ready.

      Delete
  14. I've seen a similar mis-reporting of polls regarding GE and other voting intentions as as collapse in SNP supporter. The "scam" or possibly perfectly innocent mistake is in listing the results without a figure for Don't Knows leaving the reader to assume they have been adjusted when they haven't. Without DKs the result was 51% SNP which is higher than 2014.

    ReplyDelete
  15. In my opinion,and I've not been to a branch meeting for 14 months,got good reasons.I think we must leave the UK and ask the EU to monitor the election.First though we need to find out if those folk with holiday homes voted and remove them from voting lists.Next I would see where the million or so voters went to after the referendum.I did hear of some folk coming over from N.I. to cast a vote,and then go back? if they really did come here.As for the postal vote it must be questioned as to why such a high number of No,s came from strong SNP areas,seems dodgy to me,why were the postal votes counted outside Scotland? too many questions over the running of it and the counting of voters who don't seem to be here anymore.Finding a neutral observer and counters is the hardest part is who or what country could be honest and neutral in an independence debate and vote?

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete