Friday, September 30, 2016

53% of public demand that a second independence referendum should be held within just THREE YEARS, according to landmark Panelbase poll

Apologies for taking several days to write about Sunday's Panelbase poll - I'm still in southern Europe (not for much longer, alas!).  The delay may be just as well, though, because it appears that the wrong numbers were originally reported.  The definitive results are now available within the Panelbase datasets, and for my money the most important finding is on whether a second independence referendum should be held in the near future...

Want another independence referendum within three years : 53%

Do not want another independence referendum in the next few years : 47%

Regular readers might recall that I pulled YouGov up a few weeks ago for falsely claiming that one of their polls showed a majority were opposed to an independence referendum.  In fact, they had only asked whether a referendum should be held before Brexit.  The Panelbase poll helpfully demonstrates just how sensitive respondents are to the specifics of the question asked, because only 32% say they want a referendum while Brexit negotiations are ongoing, but a further 21% want a referendum in two or three years when negotiations have been completed - bringing us to a grand total of 53%.  It's possible the three-option format of the question was helpful to the pro-referendum position (it arguably steers people towards subconsciously regarding the middle option of the three as the 'moderate' one).  But nevertheless, if you confront people with a time-frame of just THREE YEARS, and a majority still say they want a referendum, it is clearly nonsensical to claim (as YouGov attempted to) that Scotland is opposed to Indyref 2.

61 comments:

  1. Before we get that far,the SG needs to explain to Scots which union is going to benefit us most.
    It may be that staying in England's union will be best for us but they have a lot of questions to answer first.
    UK unionists spent two years during our referendum demanding answers from us,since we were the ones proposing change but now it's our turn.
    From what I have seen so far,it looks like there will be no answers and a demand to "just trust us" from the Tories.
    Looks like that will be a minority of Scots doing the trusting.

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    1. On the face of it, the Union with England looks attractive, but it would need an explination as to how Scotland has gone from one of the wealthiest and most diverse economies in the world just over a century ago to what we have now---and that's with 40 years of huge revenues being exploited from Scotland share of a vast oil field.
      Look at the success little Norway made of utilising ITS resources to exploit N sea oil, and compare it with the by-passing of Scottish industry. And we were once famous for engineering.
      Or look back at the twentieth century and the disaster of the gold standard. Just as Scottish industry desperately needed a devaluation in its currency, it was stuck with a bullish London Treasury ego tripping on the value of Sterling.
      And if London wouldn't invest in Scotland's infrastructure and industrial renewal while oil revenues were flowing, why would it do so now? This, while we Brexit from one of the biggest trading markets in the world and UK industry is going to struggle for many years just to keep marketshare.

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    2. The first clause of your first sentence makes no sense at all to me.

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    3. ? surely you jest ? ...The current union with England has brought us nowt, 'cept Uk child poverty at 24% according to UNICEF, do you think removing EU protections will be better for us Scots as part of Westminsters Brexit britain?... You have seen the figures that they trot out to tar us with, have you not? ..Time to go before they claim our fish as theirs too, using our fishing waters as their main bartering tool for Brexit negotiations......

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    4. What I was trying to say is that a significant number of Scots still think UKOK and that if we are to have another independence referendum the case for retaining EU membership will have to be made.
      I do not believe that an independent Scotland could survive without being in some sort of trading union and that the option will be either England or Europe.
      The benefits of both need to be articulated so that voters can make an informed choice.

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    5. First things first: an end to the debilitating union with England.

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    6. just a few ideas to get you started reflecting on the benefits/disadvantages of both Unions https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/07/16/post-brexit-unionists-you-have-a-choice-to-make-eu-or-uk/

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    7. I have asked this question time and time again,
      (Q) What benefits does Scotland get from being in the Union
      (a) None
      I have yet to get an answer to this question
      The Barnet formula is being cut again, now we have lost £2862 Billion, imagine adding that to Scottish Resources

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  2. One thing Teresa May hasn't said but most will know (including her) is that if she managed to negotiate a favourable trade deal with the EU, if Scotland leaves the UK and stays part of the EU, we would benefit from that trade deal with the UK as an independent state as part of the EU.....her argument is then null and void. Their arguments are so weak now and their credibility is gone.

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    1. I'm sure that argument is going to come to the fore whenever the usual alternative of 'trade with UK or with the EU' raises it's head.
      Excellent!

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    2. The next campaign will flush out those who really are only in it for British identity and don't care about Scotland. Just got to hope people are confident and hold firm on the day of the vote. I do get the impression Scots are more fearful/cautious/risk adverse than our Southern neighbours.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2September 30, 2016 at 9:56 PM

      Do it next year please and watch the doomed Nat sis fail again with an increased suicide rate amongst the fash.

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  3. Glasgow Working Class 2September 30, 2016 at 10:07 PM

    Wonder what the Scottish currency is going to be next time round. Not GBP or the euro!
    So what shite will we get from Knickerless and Kim Yung Eck.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2September 30, 2016 at 10:55 PM

      Get tae yer scratcher then if you are tired Nat si bhoy.

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    2. My God, the Britnat si troll is doing his late-night rise from his crypt again.

      Our Mental Health people must be losing control - is there no medication to suppress the idiocy of this particular Britnat si patient?

      When we are independent can we legislate for Britnat si euthanasia? (Pretty please).

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2September 30, 2016 at 11:42 PM

      If it is euthanasia by single malt then I volunteer.

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    4. The Britnat si is getting ideas above the station the Tories perceive it at. After Brexit single malt will be reserved for rich oligarchs and princes whom the Tories are trying to impress. It will be Buckfast and meths as usual for the Britnat si.

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    5. Glasgow Working Class 2October 1, 2016 at 9:27 AM

      'You Guys', whit is that you sound like a Yank nancy bhoy.

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    6. An elementary knowledge of economics would tell you that the Scottish Pound (SCP) will appreciate rapidly against all other currencies due to having NO debt and a vibrabt economy. The difficulty will be trying to stop it appreciating. Scottish GDP is marginally lower than the Australian GDP on a per capita basis. Once you get a reasonable infrastructure spend this will catapult the GDP.

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    7. Gwc - keep dribbling into your bib. Matron will be along shortly to dispense your medication.

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    8. Sorry, Steven, but did his descent into dribbledom not peak in the previous thread when he produced :-

      "Glasgow Working Class 2September 30, 2016 at 9:53 PM
      Me no racist you Nat si chanty anti English rastlers, you racist knob ends."

      You simply cannot argue with such high level of discursive artistry!!! gwc2 Britnat si lives OK!

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    9. Glasgow Working Class 2October 2, 2016 at 10:13 PM

      Look knobend you Nat si Fash are braindead camp followers of a right wing Nat si government more to the right of the Tories and UKIP. Knickerless is a Thatcher glove puppet impersonator.

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    10. What a shrill, petulant rant. We've hit a sore spot with the Britnat si. The angrier the Britnat si gets, the funnier it is.

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    11. "Look knobend you Britnat si Fash are braindead camp followers of a right wing Britnat si government more to the right of the SNP. Auntie Cruella is a Thatcher glove puppet impersonator."

      There. Fixed that for him.

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  4. GWC is yesterday's news folks - and doesn't he know it.

    Never seen so much panic.

    Laugh at , feel pity for and ignore.

    End.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2October 2, 2016 at 9:38 PM

      You respond and say ignore. Are you keeping well you auld former socialist now Nat si!

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    2. The Britnat si is 13 years old and sneaks onto the computer when his parents are out or asleep. It's the only way to explain the juvenile nature of its posts.

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  5. Gwc - you really are an odious turd. It's great that you still come on this site. Can you not hear the ticking though ? It's your time coming to an end. The days of your union are in its final hours. As every day passes old Tories of the blue and red variety die off. It's only a matter of time that the day comes when you will be in the minority. Your wailing and whining will last an eternity and will eat away at you for the rest of your life.

    Tick tock. It's almost time.

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  6. The nats are looking into their crystal ball again. Any chance of the lottery numbers for next weekend? Then I can get the hell out of this toilet.

    Aldo

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    1. Did you just call Scotland a "Toilet"?

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    2. I think he means the Tory party.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2October 3, 2016 at 11:48 PM

      Is that the Tartan Tory Yellow Nat sis or the Blue Tories. Hard to work out who is more right wing! Yawn.

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    4. Oh dear. Junior's vomited all over the page again.

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    5. I assume that was a spoof poster. Aldo surely wouldn't have the nerve to make fun of other people's predictions.

      "The UK will vote to stay in the EU and that will be the end of it. No referenda + no elections of note, for 4 years."

      "The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign."

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  7. Hey, Britnazi GWC2, fancy meeting up to have a chat face to face?

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2October 3, 2016 at 11:45 PM

      Are you sure you can get out of your scratcher and join the real world?

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    2. Ironic, since the Britnat si has, at best, a semi-detached relationship with reality...

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2October 4, 2016 at 8:47 AM

      Like all Nat sis you are totally detached from reality. You actually think the working classes can prosper in a little Nat si narrowback state.

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  8. Oh really? I didn't see the tories or Labour save the steel industry in Scotland or Ferguson shipyards which the Scottish Government secured contracts for both and will go on for quite some time. You carry on living your bubble!

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2October 4, 2016 at 10:18 AM

      At taxpayers expense and temporary. So why do you want to throw away 11000 jobs dependent on Faslane and lose Royal Navy contracts at Yarrows with your Nat si agenda ya knob. And what about losing banking and insurance head offices to England ya knob. You cannot even come up with a currency ya knobs. I suppose the Scottish stock exchange will be based in Frankfurt!

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    2. What a spectacularly ill-informed rant. The Britnat si is angry, and that's hilarious. Long may it continue with its Dreary Heil type ravings, they're so funny.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2October 4, 2016 at 4:20 PM

      Some non reply but usual Nat si gibberish. Me angry, naw still laughing at you fash Nat sis. Do you realise how funny you are.

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    4. Trouble is the gwc2 Britnat si is out of bed too early and his medication hasn't kicked in yet.
      In his deluded Britnat si world they are (in his view) the Masters, and everyone else should just listen to his "ya knob" ravings. Pity that Britnat si group aren't able to articulate properly or people might even think they are sane!!!

      But gwc2 the racist, juvenile, blethering Britnat si does provide such good entertainment for us - long may he avoid his nurse.

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    5. Oh my God, here gwc2 the Britnat si goes again:-

      "Me angry........." from the Britnat si - I suppose it soon will be " Me very angry and I'll scweem and scweem until I'm sick".
      Could I proffer an opinion that you already are?

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    6. He's not sick, just pathetic, juvenile and easily wound up.

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  9. UKGov are getting rather bold, aren't they? In July Mundell was saying there could be a separate Scottish arrangement with the EU; now he says we'll eat whatever shit sandwich the UK feeds us. Perhaps they're being emboldened by the lack of dramatic movement in the indy polls.

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    1. Bold??
      Never disturb your enemy when they are making their errors!!

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    2. I suspect Snackbeard had his choke chain pulled after daring to raise the possibility. Auntie Cruella brooks no dissent.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2October 4, 2016 at 10:21 PM

      You really are full of shit like a bar full of Yanks.

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    4. Thus speaks a man privy to the inner workings of the Tory party. Did you make a decent job of Boris's shoes this time?

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  10. The poor racist Britnat si should do what he really wants and ask nurse for some comfort, living as gwc2 must be such a great trial having to think up childish drivel all the time.

    But Britnat si provides such joy to us- hope he keeps it going!

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2October 5, 2016 at 1:58 AM

      I spelt Yanks wrong.

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    2. Spelling and grammar are not as important as speeking yoor branes. Any fule kno.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2October 5, 2016 at 3:03 PM

      It takes wan.

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    4. Wan nation, wan party, wan Auntie Cruella?

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  11. Racist Tory Class 2October 5, 2016 at 10:51 PM

    Theresa May's Nasty Party just look like a bunch of poundshop Nick Griffin's now.

    Utterly repulsive.

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