Friday, August 12, 2016

Sturgeon sensation as swanky SNP surge ahead of lousy Labour in two local by-elections

I was a bit disconcerted last night when I heard that Labour had "gained a seat from the SNP" in a local by-election, but as is so often the case with STV by-elections, things weren't quite as they seemed.  The SNP were "defending" the seat in the spite of having lost the popular vote in the ward last time around, and they actually moved ahead of Labour to win the popular vote yesterday.  They then perversely lost the seat anyway due to Tory voters breaking almost four-to-one in favour of Labour on lower preferences.  So, other than the fact that the "Auld Alliance" from 2014 is alive and well, and the fact that Irvine West will now have to put up with a Labour councillor rather than Nicola Sturgeon's dad, the nominal "Labour gain" is of very little significance - the underlying trend is still the familiar one of Labour support draining away in former heartland areas.

Irvine West by-election result (11th August) :

SNP 37.5% (+0.7)
Labour 33.1% (-7.1)
Conservatives 20.6% (+8.6)
Socialist Labour 4.2% (+2.6)
Greens 3.0% (n/a)
Liberal Democrats 1.5% (-3.2)


Swing from Labour to SNP = 3.9%

Much the same trend was seen in yesterday's other by-election in Renfrew South and Gallowhill - except here, the SNP built up enough of a first preference lead to actually gain the seat from Labour, even allowing for the "Tories for Corbyn" factor.

Renfrew South & Gallowhill by-election result (11th August) :

SNP 47.8% (+6.9)
Labour 36.9% (-8.5)
Conservatives 13.4% (+9.1)
Liberal Democrats 1.9% (+0.1)

Swing from Labour to SNP = 7.7%


So the average pro-SNP swing yesterday was around 5.8%, and of course that's measured from the 2012 result, when the SNP were already slightly ahead of Labour nationally. Certainly there's nothing in these results that would call into question the sense of inevitability about what will happen next May - Labour remain firmly on course to lose their remaining local government strongholds, including most obviously Glasgow, which will be a landmark moment on a par (almost) with the fall of Byzantium.

68 comments:

  1. Hi James,

    What was the turnout and numbers??

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  2. 20.9% in Irvine West.

    I agree with James' analysis. Things are ticking over nicely but no room for complacency.

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  3. Glasgow Working Class 2August 12, 2016 at 4:32 PM

    This will of course mean a raising of the standard of living and better education for the working classes. How long have the Nat sis been in charge at Holyrood! Council Tax freezing has been great for whom? The rich are getting richer Nat si bhoys.

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    Replies
    1. What rubbish, the yoons are still around I see.

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    2. G(W?)C2 = don't you ever get tired of being a tube?

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2August 12, 2016 at 6:21 PM

      The majority voted for Unionist parties. However do enjoy yerself with the plastic mac on! Is that Bruce Hosie related to the Hon Hosie?

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    4. Keep sniffing that wee blanky ,,,#RELIC

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  4. I wouldn't bet on anything as it is pretty obvious that the anti Scottish Yoons are in a collective Brit Borg mode of stop the SNP at all costs even if it means sleeping with the satanic Tories.

    Oh and the anti Scottish and the little Inglander Tory loving Yoons might succeed as well if the usual levels of apathy apply at the Council Elections next May. The anti Scottish and incompetent Yoons at Council level are hoping for a high level of apathy and a very low turn out obviously.

    Will the SNP for one get its vote out in May, they failed abysmally in 2012 as far as I am concerned and thus handed control of the majority of Scotland's Councils to the Yoons with disastrous consequences for the 2014 Indy Ref.

    I fear I see history repeating itself.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2August 12, 2016 at 6:41 PM

      I assume 'yoons' is intended to be a racist term for those who are not true blood Scottish. Ma maw and her maws maws wis shagged by a true Scotsmen.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2August 12, 2016 at 10:23 PM

      Nah you Nat sis think yoons are a race. Knob.

      Delete
  5. Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2August 12, 2016 at 6:58 PM

      As John Cleese would say you are a sirry idiot. Look at Byzantium now. Woman now covering up. Thousands arrested and jailed. Islamic dictatorship on the accendancy. You jocks must be jealous.

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    2. So we r "Jocks" bit of a give away ya RELIC TROLL

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  6. It's this kind of analysis and comment that we can't afford to lose, there are few enough competent pro indy bloggers and James is definitely one of the better ones.

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    Replies
    1. Couldn't agree more. I was a bit disconcerted to see how it was portrayed in the MSM but it makes sense now.

      The continual problem of low turn out in council elections and general apathy for these elections are a worry though.

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  7. As we said before it’s now a straight fight between pro-indy and anti-indy forces until Scotland regains its independence.

    IndyRef2: There is now no way the bbc and others can repeat IndyRef1 in pitching three anti-indy politicians against one pro-indy politician in TV debates.

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  8. Exactly. There can be no 'Better Together' campaign when they are in the singular.

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  9. I would like to see "Cooncillur" Terry Kellys' analysis of the Renfrew South and Gallowhill result but so far he has remained strangely silent.

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    Replies
    1. Do we know if Trotsky Tel will be standing next year? I hope so - it'd be fun to watch him rail against the stupidity of his constituents after the result.

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    2. I find his replies on his blog quite amusing. He never gives an answer to a comment, merely resorts to insult. I think he actually lacks the intellect to formulate a constructive argument or riposte.

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    3. Councillor Kelly always provides good amusement value if bugger all else.

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    4. He has launched a number of comments now essentially just saying it wasn;t a landslide so SNP are failing...

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  10. teeth in the glassAugust 12, 2016 at 11:21 PM

    Yes. He seems to lack the genuine quick wit of that which he claims to be.Never will be a class act.

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  11. The Bitter Together mob know it's down to hand to hand combat from here on in.
    I never heard a peep about council elections till now when it's too late to make voters aware.
    Project Fear never stopped.
    They know they're in deep shit.
    Expect to get the whole kitchen sink thrown at the YES posse.
    SNP need to be on the ball more with this council stuff.
    Hit them where it hurts.
    Treat every council election with respect and awareness.
    BT sure are.
    All or nothing for the unionists now.

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  12. The Bitter Together mob know it's down to hand to hand combat from here on in.
    I never heard a peep about council elections till now when it's too late to make voters aware.
    Project Fear never stopped.
    They know they're in deep shit.
    Expect to get the whole kitchen sink thrown at the YES posse.
    SNP need to be on the ball more with this council stuff.
    Hit them where it hurts.
    Treat every council election with respect and awareness.
    BT sure are.
    All or nothing for the unionists now.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I share your sentiments, but how much compensation can we take from a continuing swing from Labour to SNP, if in one of the two cases the SNP did not take the seat. As you observe yourself "They (the SNP) then perversely lost the seat anyway due to Tory voters breaking almost four-to-one in favour of Labour on lower preferences"
    If we assume that most Conservatives will vote Labour to keep out the SNP, and that many (not at the same rate as Tories) will vote Tory to keep out the SNP, then it seems clear that the SNP need a substantial lead and/or a decent vote for another indy minded party whose voters will put the SNP as their second choice. If we compare Irvine to Renfrew then the SNP lead in the former was much less than at Renfrew - 4.4% to 10.9%.
    You and I crossed swords about tactical voting in the Scottish election this year, but my own view for the Council elections coming up is SNP1 and then, if you want, another indy party. Where there is a candidate for another indy party - Greens say - then if you are minded to support them then fine, but SNP 2 please.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2August 13, 2016 at 12:12 AM

      When Labour people realise the Nat sis are Yellow Tories who have no progressive or indeed any policies to advance the working classes then the END of this middle class Mafia is inevitable.

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    2. @ Glasgow Working Class 2 - indeed, there is something in that. However, I suspect the majority of those will have made the journey already, though there will be some who will make the journey yet (the kind of UK the Tories have in mind post-Brexit will help as well). But there is a clear strand of profound Unionism in Labour, and that would vote for the devil rather than the SNP, and certainly for independence.
      Point remains the same though - first round leads can easily be lost if the yoons get their support behind a single candidate (ie Tory + Labour vote). Wont always happen, but a danger.

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    3. "how much compensation can we take from a continuing swing from Labour to SNP"

      Quite a lot, because first preferences are usually going to be the most important factor. Even in Irvine West, the overwhelming majority of Tory votes were non-transferable.

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    4. "@ Glasgow Working Class 2 - indeed, there is something in that"

      ROFL!

      That's easily be the single thickest post on here in months.

      Not just for agreeing with the racist tory troll (did ye no ken whit he was dumbass? Well ye ken noo!) but for the hilarious notion that any of the small parties can run the same bullshit they did back in May after LYING THROUGH THEIR TEETH to scottish voters about an SNP majority being a sure thing, guaranteed, nailed on, etc.

      Nae fucking chance chum.

      Nobody trusts bullshitters.

      If the laughing stock RISE made of themselves wasn't already 100% proof of that then next May certainly will be for the bubble bullshitters and their media chums.

      Delete
  14. Stu Campbell said something interesting. STV is peculiarly unfavourable to parties which are not "transfer-friendly". It favours voters from smaller parties ganging up to keep the larger one out. If it were to be adopted for Holyrood it could see the SNP squeezed out big time.

    We need to think about that when people complain about AMS and d'Hondt.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2August 13, 2016 at 12:40 AM

      We need a voting system that allows the Nat sis to win even although the majority say NAW. That should do it.

      Delete
    2. Stu Campbell said something interesting. STV is peculiarly unfavourable to parties which are not "transfer-friendly". It favours voters from smaller parties ganging up to keep the larger one out.

      That's pretty much why it's the fairest system.

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    3. STV isn't a particularly proportional system. It's not as bad as FPTP in that respect, but it's less proportional than pure list or AMS.

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    4. James, Could you elaborate on that? I have always assumed that STV was the most proportional of all the different systems? I don't doubt that you are right, but can you explain why?
      Alex Birnie

      Delete
  15. It's becoming second nature to skip over the trolls comments unread.

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  16. It's becoming second nature to skip over the trolls comments unread.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Nice to see gwc2 still here. I look forward to the coming day when our country will stand on its own 2 feet. Meanwhile he/she/it will still be dribbling into a bib, while matron keeps giving out the pills. All the while wearing the jacket with the long arms and the soft walls wailing into eternity. Tick tock gwc2. Your time is nearly well and truly up.

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  18. "Will no one rid me of this turbulent Troll"??
    (with apologies to Henry II).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2August 13, 2016 at 3:19 PM

      Gled ma name isnae Becket you Nasty Nat si.

      Delete
  19. Glasgow Working Class 2August 13, 2016 at 3:10 PM

    Father of Knickerless fails in bid to join gravy train.

    ReplyDelete
  20. The news yesterday revealed that the inmates of Broadmoor have full internet access.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2August 13, 2016 at 5:07 PM

      Equality with Barlinnie.

      Delete
  21. Glasgow Working Class 2August 13, 2016 at 5:35 PM

    Jist listened tae that grovelling Nat si Derek Makay moaning about not getting enough dosh fae Westminster saying we wid get mair fae the EU..
    F,n embarrassing tae Scots.
    Does the idiot not realise we contribute more to the EU corrupt Mafia.
    Wake up Scots and rid us of the Nat sis.

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  22. Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2August 13, 2016 at 9:09 PM

      A tit is usefull. Better than being a crawling shameless Jock traitor. You lot are so far up Merkel's erse you can see Sturgeon's shoes.

      Delete
    2. You slaver some pish .

      I have no time for the snp u odious cretin. If you actually read the comments instead of dribbling into your bib you might realise that .

      Keep reporting back to your masters. There's a good chap.

      Tick tock. Your time is nearly up .

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2August 14, 2016 at 12:08 AM

      If you have no time for the Tartan Tories then why so silent Nat si bhoy. Yer maw widnae let ye near her tit. Ye probably surviived on dried milk.

      Delete
    4. A troll hopes to make your day a miserable one, and his a triumph of besting you and everybody. To feel superior he only needs to say he’s dealing with idiots. (History Woman uses that ploy.) Trolls like insult and abuse. Their opponents are made to feel impotent, thoroughly inadequate and uncomfortable. With trolling goes a great deal of narcissism.

      Delete
  23. It's automatic, now not reading any posts by gwc. Just instinctual not to read any yoon posts. She is farting against thunder. We are winning and she is on the losing side. When history is written she will be noted as just another yoon comparator.

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  24. Glasgow Working Class 2August 13, 2016 at 9:32 PM

    Another cycling Gold for British women including Katie Archibald. Makes you proud seeing the Union Flag and hearing God save the Queen.

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    Replies
    1. The opposite end of Billy Goat Troll is the sociopath. The internet has opened a fire door allowing every sociopath with a jerrycan and a box of matches to ignite a blast of napalm on all they see and detest in an effort to tell the world their personal situation is the result of everybody’s stupidity, never their inadequacy – and we must all pay!

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2August 14, 2016 at 12:08 PM

      You are clearly crying for help. Go back to the train platform with your notebook.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2August 15, 2016 at 12:18 AM

      No moaning and hard done tae stories fae the Nat sis lately. (Yawn).

      Delete
  25. Glasgow Working Class 2August 15, 2016 at 11:41 AM

    Sturgeon sensation, jobs for the Nat si bhoys in Holyrood. An here wis me thinking it wis only the Tories and New Labour that did this.

    ReplyDelete