Saturday, July 30, 2016

Journey into the bizarre as Herald describes an increase in support for independence as "the reversal of a surge"

A new YouGov poll on independence has been released, and in line with the other three credible polls to be published since the EU referendum, it shows an increase in support for Yes...

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 47% (+1)
No 53% (-1)

I regret to say that the Herald's reporting of this poll warrants yet another caution from the psephology police.  They've made a determined attempt to compare apples with oranges by claiming that the surge in support for independence in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote has been "reversed".  To state the bleedin' obvious, the polls that put Yes in the outright lead in late June were Panelbase and Survation polls - and tonight's poll was not conducted by Panelbase or Survation, but by a different firm with its own distinct methods.

It is quite possible that a Panelbase or Survation poll conducted now would show the Yes vote holding steady in the low 50s.  It is also quite possible that a YouGov poll conducted in late June would have produced an identical result to tonight's.  There is absolutely no hard evidence in this poll of a surge being reversed - and that is not an opinion, it is a fact.  The new numbers can only be compared with the last YouGov independence poll from well before the EU referendum - since when there has been a small 1% swing towards Yes. 

UPDATE : The datasets are now out, and the big question that immediately forms in my mind is whether the results have been weighted by EU referendum vote.  At first glance it looks like they have been, because 553 Remain voters in the unweighted sample have been reduced to 500.  But the note at the bottom of the datasets doesn't mention EU referendum vote as one of the factors that have been weighted for. 

The reason this matters is that there have been signs in other polls that some Leave voters falsely say they voted Remain, possibly because of embarrassment - meaning that there will generally appear to be too many Remain voters in unweighted samples.  As there is a strong correlation between voting Remain and supporting independence, any misguided downweighting of Remain voters could potentially lead to support for independence being underestimated.

I would also strongly urge people to pay only limited heed to supplementary questions that appear to show slightly worse results for Yes.  Respondents are already factoring in Brexit when they answer the headline question on independence, so that's the result that matters.  Questions with more exotic wordings will always produce slightly different results.

Nevertheless, as has been pointed out in the comments section below, it's striking that a significantly bigger minority of SNP voters seem to oppose independence when the question is posed as a straight choice between the UK and the EU.  That illustrates the potential danger of making retention of EU membership the lead campaign pitch in Indyref 2 - because it may alienate Yes voters from 2014 who have since voted Leave.  My own view is that we have to draw a distinction here - the issue of being dragged out of the EU against our will matters enormously, because it's the casus belli for calling a second referendum.  But once that referendum is actually underway, we'll need a more inclusive campaign that appeals to both Remain and Leave voters.

UPDATE II : I'll just quickly run through some of the other concerns that have been raised about the poll in the comments section.  Yes, absolutely, it's extremely reprehensible that YouGov haven't interviewed 16 and 17 year olds, given that it seems almost inevitable that the voting age for Indyref 2 will be 16 rather than 18.  The Yes lead among 18-24 year olds is a whopping 26%, so if you assume that 16 and 17 year olds would break in a similar way, it's perfectly possible that the headline result of this poll should really be Yes 48%, No 52%.  That's just speculation, obviously, but it's scarcely unwarranted.

In theory, there's no reason why the poll should be missing a pro-Yes surge among citizens of other EU countries.  YouGov weight by country of birth, and the 'born outside the UK' group is weighted to make up roughly 9% of the sample.  However, there's no way of knowing whether that group contains the correct proportion of EU and non-EU citizens.

It's true that the recalled EU referendum vote is slightly skewed in favour of Leave in the weighted sample - it's Remain 59%, Leave 41%, whereas it should be Remain 62%, Leave 38%.  For the reasons given above, I'm not sure that weighting by EU referendum vote is a good idea - but all the same, you'd expect to see too many Remain voters in the sample (because of the problem of false recall), not too few.  So there may be a small issue there - and if so, the poll may be slightly underestimating the Yes vote.

82 comments:

  1. 14% dont knows.
    I make that Yes - 54.7% NO - 45.3%
    @Yes-47 No-39 DK- 14

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yougov's tables show:
      Yes - 40
      No - 45
      DK - 10
      Won't vote - 4
      Binary results as James posted. No idea where you got 39% No from!

      Initially worrying me was that 46% prefer Scotland in UK/out EU to 37% preferring out UK/in EU. With DKs removed, works out at 55% to 45%, a distressingly familiar pair of numbers.

      That indicates the EU referendum may have had little to no effect on independence. But if we look at the DK numbers it's clear some voters may be wavering. That 17% certainly includes the voters who prefer in/in or out/out.

      Delete
    2. Boris Gump and the BrexitearsJuly 30, 2016 at 2:44 AM

      We're still in the EU to state the obvious. The tories still don't have a plan and sooner or later someone's actually going to notice that and the effects will not be pretty.

      When May and her 'cabinet' finally work out what they want to do, and when that is scrapped after the hardline Brexiteers and Remainers start fighting over it, things will look very different.

      The longer they delay the worse it will get.

      Most of the Brexiteers and kippers still seem to think Brexit and article 50 will happen shortly after the new year when even a barking mad anti-EU loon like Liam Fox is now talking about a 2019 Brexit.

      Meanwhile some of the tory remainers seem to think they can stretch this out beyond 2020 and use the next GE to get a 'mandate' for their particular flavour of Brexit-light.

      While some tories just want to kick the ball out of the playing field altogether and let someone else worry about it. Just like Cameron tried to.

      No way on earth that kind of tory mistrust and factionalism is going to result in anything other than utter chaos yet again at some point.

      Count on it.

      Delete
    3. I was going by the STV article, quoting 47% for yes, and 14% for don't knows. Didn't have the yougov figures, so I stand corrected.

      Delete
  2. FPP

    Trend is going the right way, but pretty strange polling data needing heavy weightings?
    A quarter of sample from outside Scotland?

    Birthplace:
    Scotland: 748
    Rest of the UK: 200
    Outside UK: 58

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. An incredible observation! Makes the entire poll result meaningless.

      Delete
    2. No, it doesn't, because YouGov now weight by country of birth. (They didn't in the past, but they do now.)

      Delete
  3. Bumblefuck tories for unityJuly 30, 2016 at 1:54 AM

    David SchneiderVerified account  ‏@davidschneider

    Oxymoron chart gets new no. 1:
    3. One nation government
    2. Compassionate Conservatism
    1. Liam Fox charm offensive

    "The US has rebuffed attempts by Liam Fox to open negotiations on a free trade deal, saying that meaningful talks before a Brexit were impossible."




    It's all going splendidly for the witless tory incompetents, isn't it?

    No wonder the US State Department laughed when Boris of the 3 stooges was announced as Foreign Secreteary.

    A joke of a government that will collapse into petulant Brexit factionalism and backstabbing as it becomes ever more clear they don't have the slightest fucking idea what to do or how they would do it even if they did.

    The inept directionless void of May's 'administration' of third raters is making the Cameroon's infamous short-termism look like a 1000 year plan.

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  4. "The YouGov poll, commissioned by the SNP, found that 47% of those polled would be in favour of independence following the UK's decision to leave Europe on June 23."
    "The number of respondents who said they would not vote or did not know also increased from 12% to 14% in the wake of the Brexit vote."
    http://stv.tv/news/politics/1362251-poll-shows-increased-support-for-independence-after-brexit/

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  5. Even STV aren't going for the Herald's ludicrous spin.

    "Poll shows increased support for independence after Brexit"

    http://stv.tv/news/politics/1362251-poll-shows-increased-support-for-independence-after-brexit/

    After the Herald lied through it's teeth before the May election and after it's pitiful Yoon trolling of indy supporters since then, you have to wonder why anyone is still buying a joke of a 'newspaper' like that.

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  6. "Yes 47% (+1)
    No 53% (-1)"

    The point is, it's not ^^^that.

    It's Yes - 55 No - 45, when the Don't knows (14%) are removed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, it's not. The numbers in the blogpost are correct. You can't remove Don't Knows twice!

      Delete
    2. How could removing Don't Knows make Yes and No switch places?

      Delete
  7. "The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign."

    Aldo

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  8. No 53
    Yes 47

    In UK, out of EU - 55
    In EU, out of UK - 45

    Sore elbow.

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  9. Looks like we're down to the wire and very little movement on this issue is forthcoming.
    No voters appear to see things through the prism of identity whilst indy supporters see it as a governance matter.
    We might therefore be asking the same question but because of the above nuance we get a polarised answer.

    How do we therefore get them onboard?

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    Replies
    1. With great difficulty. BT said their internal polling found that 40% of the population would oppose independence no matter what evidence was presented. If that's accurate, less than a third of No voters are actually open-minded about it.

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  10. Taken along with other polls it shows Scotland is split half and half.The will of the Scottish people is unsettled and so the status quo will continue.

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  11. The big difference in this poll is that it finds only 65% of 2015 SNP voters as supporting Yes. YouGov's last two polls (in April and May) had 74% in both. That makes a big difference because 9% of 2015 SNP supporters is worth about 4% overall. It wipes out almost all of the movement from No to Yes (or don't know) amongst 2015 voters of other parties, which the other polls picked up.

    I'm not sure whether the movement away from Yes in 2015 SNP voters is real or not. You would need further polling to confirm or refute it.

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  12. Iv'e said it before and I'll say it again:

    Support for indy will dip after the knee-jerk subsides, and then it will resume its painfully slow upward trajectory. Sorry, folks, indy is coming, but it ain't in a hurry, even with BREXIT. Most of the older NO voters would rather go down with the union than contemplate a different, brighter future. Forget the economic guff. This is about peoples' belief systems (formed over a lifetime of experience and brainwashing) and these things change very, very slowly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're absolutely right about a slow change.Independence will happen but later rather than sooner, unfortunately.

      Delete
    2. WeSaidNoToYesMen :-)July 30, 2016 at 1:06 PM

      And with the SNP's free prescriptions and old age care those older voters will be around longer than ever :-) Cheers Nicky

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    3. Could we PLEASE let the fantasy of slow demographic inevitability die a dignified death. Changes in public opinion on independence have not been glacial in the past, and there is absolutely no reason to suppose they will be glacial in the future. They have gone in both directions in the past, and there is no reason to assume they will be only in favour of Yes in the future. We actually have to go out and persuade people, not wait around for years on end, hoping for some sort of supernatural process to happen.

      Delete
    4. Sorry James, I disagree. I'm not advocating demographic dependence, but I still think this ain't gonna happen quickly. Yes there was a lot of fluidity prior to 2014, because folk had not really considered independence as a realistic possibility. Since then, however, positions have hardened, I mean really hardened. People may be frustrated with this - gentle persuasion may work but it will not work quickly. We can but hope that BREXIT will not happen or it will be delayed a few years. Only two things can change a person's belief system: gradual persuasion or one hell of a shock. The former takes time, lots of time. The latter, well BREXIT was not shocking enough - yet. You have your opinion, I have mine. We shall find out in time.

      Delete
    5. Your opinion is comprehensively disproved by polling over the last thirty years. Support for independence goes up and it goes down. At times, it goes up and down very, very fast. The idea that it was fluid and then hardened to the point of being immovable almost overnight is pretty hard to take seriously.

      I for one am not interested in twiddling my thumbs for the next twenty years and wondering why the polls are going backwards in spite of Demographic Inevitability.

      Delete
    6. Would it perhaps though reduce the 40% who would never vote for Indy under any circumstances. Just a thought.

      Delete
    7. Totally agree with Luigi. Polling over 30 years consists of 25 years of independence not seriously being on the table. Don't have a clue how that then disproves..well.. anything. We live in a post referendum environment and Polling pre 2011 is somewhat of a different populace with a very difference outlook. Completely different. Whether you want to twiddle your thumbs or not is irrelevant.

      Delete
    8. There what evidence is there that "positions have hardened" since 2014? How is it possible for anyone's position to harden, when such dramatic changes in the political landscape have occurred - even in the last few weeks? Just a few weeks ago, most people were of the opinion that Brexit wouldn't happen - couldn't happen (with an honourable exception in James, who was more wary). Nobody knows how opinion on independence is going to move in the next few weeks, never mind months or years. I sincerely hope that the SNP are ready to call for a referendum, as soon as the polls show a steady majority - not wait for some theoretical "safety margin".
      Alex Birnie

      Delete
    9. I don't have any evidence but after a two and a half year campaign I think it's more likely than not positions harden.
      I think independence opinions are likely to harden after a serious campaign than during 60 years of being ridiculed as a dream.

      I think there's more to holding a vote than when we have a steady lead of say 3-6 percent too. There would still need to be a campaign and it's at this point big changes in opinion could happen. Much has changed from Indyref1 and we need to change the argument. Fiscally we can't say we're a contributor anymore. Currency union with a non-EU country sounds more difficult.
      I think on balance it's more prudent to wait and formalise an argument, with demographic on our side, than rush in without serious answers to those questions.

      Delete
  13. Far too much stock is given to a paper that sells next to zilch it's readership has collapsed down to a paltry 20 odd thousand who cares what it or the Hoots Mon think they are Foreign owned anyway. Whee was this Labour supporting Pollsters poll conducted? In the Rangers supporters clubs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The poll isn't at fault, it's the Herald's angle on it which is dodgy.

      Delete
  14. Does YouGov not give extra weightings to significant No voting age groups that do not reflect the actual percentage of the Scottish population for that age group... that would skew the polls in the Unions favour?

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  15. There is no Union, only a Domination.

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  16. A run on the pound will clinch it. Failing that, we'll just have to wait for some more natural wastage....

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  17. Astonishing after all we have been through in the last two years to see no still in the lead. Perhaps it really is a generational thing.

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  18. Lets never forget what this editor Magnus Gardham did to stop Indy last time, his reward is now being employed by UKGov and very worrying this state controlled editor and paper is allowed to be called a freedom of press paper.Spread this link around to warn folk his articles will massively distort truth. This Englishman has a deep rooted hate for Scots who are not Brits http://www.prweek.com/article/1400515/uk-government-beefs-scottish-comms-team#WIq1v04thIkeXjqe.02

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  19. Looking at YouGov’s latest Scottish opinion polls; it is clear that although YouGov are reporting them as separate polls, the datasets make clear that both polls derive from the same fieldwork. Did anyone take part in this poll, or does anybody know the question order?

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/lbzcm2uume/ScotlandintheUnionResults_160725_ScottishIndependence_W.pdf

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ihg707zgux/ScottishTrackers_25-Jul-2016_Indy_W.pdf

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    Replies
    1. Seems that this body of fieldwork also produced YouGov's latest Trident poll. All in all the fieldwork seems to have found a very pro-British/UK policy support sample population.

      Delete
  20. Looks promising to me for the independence movement. And indyref2 hasn't really started yet, although the britnat propaganda continues its vile way.

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  21. First oddity is that the only weighing seems to be towards the yes/no in the independence referendum. Might be due to differences in who can vote but the GE result has over 50% saying the voted SNP. The EU referendum result is 60/40 rather than 62/38. Not sure if any of that's important but given EU citizens had a vote last time I find it odd.

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  22. Has to be one of the most disappointing results I have seen...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. lol it's one poll when polling was just shown to be shite when it comes to referendums

      let the westminster bubble fools think it has any deeper significance and pronounce indy 'stone dead'. we know how wrong they always are by now

      Delete
  23. The SNP must be concerned with this result, as their hand is somewhat being forced by Brexit and the resultant, expectation of the active Yes community.

    They seem to have had planned the slow persuasion/movement to indy, intimated above by Luigi.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Adding the qualifier 'within the EU nearly doubled support for Welsh indy in the latest YouGov. You'd expect a big rise in Scottish indy support if you clarified that aspect in the question.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Daily Mail removed simple post pointing out yes up, no down.

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  26. This poll is disappointing, although two things: first YouGov was the worst pollster for yes before the EU ref, and two, like the Survation polls immediately after the EU ref the weighting is a little strange.

    84% of YouGov's sample voted in the EU ref and 91% voted in 2014 - the real figures were 67% and 85% (and voter registration is lower now then it was in 2014).

    Among those who voted in the EU ref, 59% voted Remain and 41% voted Leave - so leave is over represented by a few %. Adjusting these to the right number would probably boost yes by a point or so.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Something else that leaps out at me is how big of a difference there is between age groups.

      16-24 Yes: 63% No: 37%
      25-49 Yes: 59% No: 41%
      50-64 Yes: 42% No: 58%
      65+ Yes: 24% No: 76%

      Delete
    2. The tables DO NOT show a 16-24 band. It's the 18-24 band that's 63% Yes 37% No.

      See my post below re the franchise used for weighting. It's Westminster 2015 not Holyrood 2016!

      I have no idea of their numbers but I'd bet money that 16-17 year olds and EU residents would be at least 63% Yes 37% No.

      Delete
    3. Oh indeed. Also, Panelbase and Survation used 2016 Holyrood vote.

      Delete
  27. A key reason why the YouGov poll may be overly unionist is that the weightings on p3 of the YouGov PDF show that it has their new "oldies" weightings [probably correct] but was based on Westminster 2015 voting [18+] and NOT Holyrood 2016 voting [16+ & EU residents].
    was ed

    ReplyDelete
  28. It does show the foolishness of those pushing a stupid 60% poll target, when the last campaign saw the YES vote increase substantially during the campaign.
    Like the Brexit vote, a vote on Scottish independence will always be a close run thing, and 52% on the day is still a win.

    Going by these figures the biggest obstacle is still the pensioner vote.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Us oldies are indeed likely to vote NO, but the poll would be more realistic if it was weighted on the Holyrood franchise rather than the Westminster one.

      Are EU residents likely to vote NO?

      Are 16-17 year olds likely to be similar to the 18-24s?

      Delete
    2. " a vote on Scottish independence will always be a close run thing, and 52% on the day is still a win."

      Indeed and the result was 55% No. The referendum's already happened unless you've forgotten. Your ship has sailed.

      Delete
    3. WeSaidLOLToTwatManJuly 30, 2016 at 12:30 PM

      A bunch of out of touch torys are going to stop the next one are they? like fuck they are. the tory remianers under May don't even have a plan for brexit yet. lol

      Delete
    4. WeStillSaidNoToYesMen :-)July 30, 2016 at 1:12 PM

      Lol, better to have no plan than a wrong plan. "We will be dead richest and that cuz oil wull be $200 a barrel aye and we'll be keeping the pound, telling the eu we're joining, joining nato but telling the nukes to get stuffed etc etc... *long wishlist of guff that would hinge on every other organisation on earth being telt what tae dae by an independent country of 5 million aye pal*

      Delete
    5. 'Better Together' :-DJuly 30, 2016 at 1:23 PM

      After the Cameroon Brexit Catastrophe there really are tories still that stupid. It's not an act.

      Delete
  29. One good reason to hold a referendum before concluding Brexit is that EU bationals living in Scotland will still get to vote. They'll not get a vote once we've left.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2July 30, 2016 at 1:27 PM

      A Scottish referendum surely should mean only Scots of birth living in Scotland should vote.

      Delete
    2. Why drag the English concept of nationality by birth in? Jesus was born in a stable; was he a horse?
      The last qualification was fine, people 16 and up resident in Scotland

      Delete
    3. Had the last referendum been conducted on the basis of only Scottish born residents being given the vote, figures show Yes would have marginally won. Interesting that Westminster however would never have allowed such a vote when not allowing EU nationals (or 16-17yo's) the vote could likely be a prominent factor in the Leave win.

      (Not arguing that this is how indyref1 should have been conducted but rather that EU nationals and 16-17yos should have been given the vote in EU ref)

      Delete
    4. Interesting that Westminster however would never have allowed such a vote when not allowing EU nationals (or 16-17yo's) the vote could likely be a prominent factor in the Leave win.

      We don't actually know whether Westminster would have allowed the franchise to be restricted to "birth" Scots. The SG (rightly) never suggested it to them.

      Delete
  30. What kind of question even is this?

    Do you think holding another referendum on Scottish
    independence would have a positive or negative impact
    on the following or would it have no impact?

    The Economy
    Scottish Business

    HOLDING another referendum?

    Such a Britnat question. Almost meaningless but aligns well with unionist rhetoric that the SNP and Sturgeon are distracting from the real work of governance, wasting time,money and energy on constitutional matters.

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  31. The Grauniad gets it even more wrong. They erroneously give the No vote as 57% failing to notice this gives a total of 104%.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/no-real-shift-towards-scottish-independence-since-brexit-vote-poll

    I have sent them a complaint and a cheeky request for the cause. Innumeracy for not noticing the error or an inherent Unionist bias thinking it an okay figure?

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  32. Agree with anonymous, i never believe any " unionist manipulated/engineered/ rigged poll."

    ReplyDelete
  33. I must admit, as a unionist it came as something of a relief that brexit hasn't immediately and decisively flipped public opinion in favour of independence. The Scottish people are giving the UK a chance, again, and hoping for a good EU deal and the continuation of 'business as usual'. If they get it, there is no reason to believe polling figures like this wont continue.

    From the SNP's point of view, it's bad. They are no further forward and the clock is ticking - 4 years and 9 months until they are required to go to the country again to seek a FOURTH term. Realistically, they have to wait until a brexit deal is reached before they can even think of holding a referendum. So that limits the time window to, what - perhaps two years or thereabouts? And what if the polls are still against them?

    All these dilemmas. But the clock never stops ticking.

    Tick. Tock.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign."

      Aldo

      Delete
  34. Agree with anonymous, i never believe any " unionist manipulated/engineered/ rigged poll."

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  35. No voters have the best of both worlds far as they are concerned. A competent government in Holyrood, who pretty much balance the books, against huge odds. No tuition fees for their kids and grandkids, no prescription charges, cheap housing, outsude if the city, good infrastructure and cheap, efficient transport.

    The SNP government are doing a good job, under the circumstances, mitigating the UK government's horrendous austerity attacks on the poor and vulnerable. The SNP are creating as many projects as possible to encourage business, and innovation in many areas. House building, decent houses, even the start up support for first time buyers. The lucky first time buyers are very likely middle class, that's ok, but many will have no voting parents.
    The no voters in Scotland, and the ones with second homes here, never had it so good, why upset the apple cart? You have your brit passport, all the perks, or benefits rather of living in a well run country. The free bus pass for those who turn 60, even if they are a millionaire, in NE england my bro has to wait until he is 65, having worked since he was 15. No free travel for him, even though he has health problems. In Scotland free care for the elderly, a good NHS, being improved all the time by the SNP. Look at england regards those things, it's a rip off country, benefitting the well off, the rich.

    The Scottish government are doing what they can, they are inclusive, not exclusive, in contrast to the UKok government. They could do so much more if we were independent, it's incredibly sad. It seems the no voters are too comfortable to want change for the better, and Scotland should be much better than it is, rather than stifled by Westminster, with those at the helm of a cruel and destructive government who keep the people subservient.

    . We don't want the kind of victorian society that Westmonster thrives on and promotes, no thanks. Scotland is moving rapidly into the 21st century, we can't allow the selfish to hold us back any longer.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well said.....

      Exactly....No voters have best of both worlds....While ignoring the fact that without independence, even the SNP support might fade and fail and they will be exposed to the full weight of Westminster politics....

      Delete
  36. It's not all bad. It's one of 4 polls (i think) 3/4 for independence. It's still an increase! Also, on the day of the EU ref, polling looked as if it was in the bag for leave and it never happened....

    Most importantly the campaign hasn't begun and the pain of leaving the EU isn't known yet.......

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  37. I now note that the Graun has changed the figure to 53% there is no note as to the amendment of the article as should be proper.

    I also had no reply to my email.

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  38. Now why would the poll exclude 16 & 17 Year old voters? https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ihg707zgux/ScottishTrackers_25-Jul-2016_Indy_W.pdf

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    Replies
    1. Laziness. Almost all YouGov polls are 18+, and they can't be bothered changing their procedures for a Jock Poll.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2July 31, 2016 at 9:03 PM

      James, If a 16yr old person can vote in Scotland then why do the Nat sis consider this 16yr old requires a named person. Maybe to show them where to mark the X!

      Delete
    3. I'm unfortunately familiar with 16 and 17 year olds through my line of work. They don't vote. They are all pro indy and pro SNP, of course, but they can't be arsed going and voting for it.

      Delete
  39. The Yoon quizzers at the Herald working over time on behalf of the Brit Nat Establishment, no surprise there then. UK GOV also doing what it is telt as well so nothing new there either. One of the most dishonest Opinion Polls put out yet though. Oh and Britannia TV this evening was all over this poll like flies on a deid fish. Blatantly orchestrated release on the day of an Indy rally in Glasgow. There is no end to the mendacity of the Brit Nat Press and Media.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2July 31, 2016 at 9:50 PM

      You have to ignore flag waving fashclosers who do not respect democracy.

      Delete
  40. Why is the SNP using this polling company if this type of bias is known?

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  41. It's a terrible poll. No 16-17 year olds. Weighted 3% in favour of Brexit voters. A lot of don't knows. It's an outlier almost manufactured. When is the next serious poll coming out!

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  42. They sampled 200 that were born Rest of UK and had to weight that by halve. This was Hardly a representative sample of Scots.

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