This is probably why the Leave campaign were downplaying the ORB poll last night. The new YouGov figures are actually comparatively good for Leave by the standards of the last three-and-a-half months, but if ORB had been bang on the money, you'd expect more than margin-of-error changes tonight.
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
Remain 42% (-1)
Leave 43% (+1)
Those numbers make it less likely that there has been very recent further movement towards Leave, because the Leave lead is actually three points lower than in the last-but-one poll from YouGov. It could well be that Leave's 'true' lead (according to the YouGov methodology) has been steady at around 1% or 2% over the last ten days or so, but that sampling variation resulted in Remain being slightly overstated in the last poll, and slightly understated in the last-but-one.
An Opinium poll tonight adds to the sense that nothing much has changed over the last week -
Remain 44% (+1)
Leave 42% (+1)
Although that's an online poll, it's not quite as good for Remain as it appears - Opinium made a methodological adjustment before last week's poll that effectively made their weighted sample much more similar to a phone poll sample. So it's not surprising that they're now producing the sort of results that you might expect from phone polls, ie. on the more Remain-friendly end of the spectrum.
Having said that, a 2% lead isn't all that great for Remain by normal phone poll standards, so what we need now is a real phone poll to see whether the gap really has narrowed to that extent, or whether the remarkable ICM phone poll of ten days ago was a fluke. Incredibly, there's only been one other phone poll since then - it was from ORB, and it wasn't much use because the turnout-filtered headline figures showed a completely different trend from the unfiltered figures.
The Telegraph are splashing on a separate YouGov question which supposedly shows huge support for Britain adopting the Norway model, ie. leave the EU, return to EFTA, remain in the EEA, and retain free movement of people and a fair chunk of EU regulation. However, yet another question produced a directly contradictory result, because the public were split 41-41 on whether a post-Brexit government should prioritise the retention of the single market or a reduction in immigration from the EU. Only the former option is at all consistent with the Norway model.
* * *
SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
50/50 ONLINE TELEPHONE AVERAGE :
Remain 45.0% (n/c)
Leave 45.5% (-0.3)
ONLINE AVERAGE :
Remain 42.9% (n/c)
Leave 44.9% (-0.7)
TELEPHONE AVERAGE :
Remain 47.0% (n/c)
Leave 46.0% (n/c)
(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last two weeks. The online average is based on nine polls - four from YouGov, two from ICM, two from Opinium and one from ORB. The telephone average is based on three polls - two from ORB and one from ICM.)