Thursday, June 30, 2016

Will Michael Gove's Scottish accent count for anything?

It's only a week since the betting markets (or rather the notion that they are some sort of predictive God) faced their Waterloo, but it looks to me like it could easily happen all over again.  As of this moment, Theresa May is the strong favourite on the Betfair exchange to become the new Prime Minister, with Michael Gove way back on 4/1 - the equivalent of a 20% probability of a Gove premiership.  Those look like crazy odds.  Gove should easily make the final two in the MPs' ballot, and I would then expect him to boss the head-to-head TV debates with May (assuming she is the other candidate).  Quite honestly, though, I think Gove would win a members' ballot even if it was held tomorrow.  Presumably the markets are going astray because punters are looking at Gove's very real unpopularity with the public and assuming that's bound to translate into members' votes against him - but it won't.  Remember this is the party that preferred Iain Duncan Smith to Ken Clarke, and by quite some margin.

That probably means we're going to have the third post-war Scottish Prime Minister - in terms of origin, I mean, rather than constituency.  I'm wondering if Gove's accent will count for anything at all north of the border?  After all, we're a country that will quite happily pick up the phone and vote for fairly nasty and horrible people to win reality TV shows as long as they talk like us.  Gordon Brown's accent may have been almost entirely responsible for Scottish Labour's dead cat bounce in 2010.  So surely having a Scot at the helm will at least add a couple of percentage points to the Tories' ratings, and perhaps even give a shot in the arm to the anti-independence forces?  Well, the polling evidence so far suggests otherwise.  A YouGov poll earlier this week reported that Gove had 5% support across Britain as the best new PM - but just 1% in Scotland.  Perhaps this is an example of the Michael Forsyth phenomenon - once someone is sufficiently associated with the worst extremes of Toryism, we cease to notice anything else about them.

My own favourite Gove moment (apart from the 'clean for the Queen' photo, obviously, which is everyone's favourite) was back in 2003, when he was still a journalist and pundit.  He appeared on STV on the morning after the Holyrood election, which had brought mixed fortunes for the pro-independence movement - the SNP had suffered losses, but the overall number of pro-independence MSPs had slightly increased.  Gove declared that, to his surprise, George Robertson had been proved right, and that devolution had killed Scottish nationalism stone dead after all.

For the Tories' sake, I hope his political antenna has improved since then.

59 comments:

  1. What Scottish accent? Give sounds like he's from Mars.

    Aberdeen my bum.

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  2. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 30, 2016 at 7:04 PM

    I must say I'm hugely enjoying the Cameroons retreat into head in the sand bubble mode by proclaiming May as the new Messiah.

    She spent a good chunk of her heavily rehearsed speech pointing out that she wasn't "showy" or "clubbable". An admission not to expect miracles from someone who clearly has the same kind of likeability factor as Gove. It was also a dig at Boris but tories all over westminster will be youtubing some of her past disasterous performances under pressure and wondering 'what on earth can be done?'

    Unite the country? She has zero chance of uniting the tories even if she bumbles her way into the top job by being the last one standing.

    Precisely what do the Cameroons think is going to happen when things get tough over Brexit?

    Are the Brexiteers going to take the blame or will they use the opportunity to settle the score? Yep, precisely.


    There is also still a fairly easy target for the Brexiteers to broach should they consider a leadership challenge to May at a future time of their choosing.

    Tory leadership rules have not changed. So if May even looks like having a SNIFF at those rules in the name of say, 'national interest' or 'modernising the stuffy old tory party' - then the tory party will reach maximum hysteria in record time. They'll try to boot her out on her arse out on her arse quicker than you can say "immigrant cat" LOL

    For that matter does May plan to cower in fear and hide for the entirety of a GE campaign like she did for the entire EU referendum campaign?

    She might be best advised to considering just how well the voters at large are going to react to her particular brand of shrill incompetence.

    Didn't see much sign of any leadership qualities when she completely fucked up on Border Controls, or when she made such a staggering mess of the child sex abuse inquiry.

    The reality is that this just sets the stage for a neverending powerstruggle between the Cameroons and the rest.

    Boris will be waiting for the dust to at least partially settle and then it's off to work again to plot his revenge and use the considerable clout he still has to undermine those who wronged him.

    If you think that's unrealistic then you clearly didn't understand why Boris laid out his leadership platform of running London and the Olympics and the campaigns he won to do so, BEFORE he refused to stand.

    He didn't just remember, "CRIPES! I'm resigning. Why did I just give my leadership speech?"

    Boris put his marker very firmly down before leaving so everyone in the tory party will remember that he had the experience but was forced out by treachery. (In his and his supporters view obv.)

    Something the Brexiteers are going to be incredibly receptive to when things go very, very pear shaped on May's watch.


    cont.

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    1. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 30, 2016 at 7:09 PM

      Now just marvel at what will likely be the incompetent Blair impersonator Cameron's biggest legacy inside the tory party. (Brexit calamity has primacy for everything else obv.) To set the tory party directly on the same course as Blair did with his party.

      With Blair it was Iraq and the Blairites Vs Brownites then everyone else to this very day with the result we can plainly see.

      With Cameron it used to be the EU, now it's Brexit but the effect is the same. Cameroons Vs Brosibackers/Brexiteers/ everyone else with any major split in the future falling into those categories.

      After Brexit, it will be immigration, believe it.

      Since the most staggering thing they do not yet realise in the tory party is that all they have done is replace one massive issue where the kippers outflank them with the other.

      There will be no blaming the EU for it after Brexit, remember. Then it's going to be squarely on the shoulders of the government with the Cameroons facing the same kind of numbers game that Cameron himself idiotically got involved in but with the extra complexities of points systems. (May in charge of a points system would be comedy gold were it not for the utter lack of humanity these new model Nasty Party tories have)

      Bottom line is that May represents the classic Cameroon strategy of papering over the cracks and praying to god nobody notices the laughably short term thinking and lack of any competent planning ahead.

      Good luck with that. I'm sure it's worked like a charm so far.

      (James has covered Gove so..)

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    2. Gosh I don't suppose you think May isn't up to the job?

      I agree she hid during the referendum. People are calling that "clever". But how long before people call it "too clever".

      As for Boris' speech. I think it's actually possible he was undecided whether to stand even when he started it and only decided at the end when he made the announcement.

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    3. Bumblefuck tories for unityJune 30, 2016 at 8:04 PM

      None of them are up to the job. If they were they would have realised long ago and tried to stop where this was all inevitably heading.

      Chaos.

      Brexit or no Brexit the decades old split in the tory party had been pushed to the side, stoked up, pushed to the side again and not tackled head on for way too long for this to end any other way.

      "I think it's actually possible he was undecided whether to stand even when he started it and only decided at the end when he made the announcement."

      Don't take this personally but, bollocks.

      He had every opportunity to cancel and postpone but instead went for the maximum impact he would get by shocking the tory party and indeed the political journos there.

      They will not forget that speech in a hurry. It will enter the political lexicon as one of "those" moments. Most of those who were at it still seem dazed by the sheer unexpected drama of it. Journos included.

      Boris has the same low base cunning for plotting he always did. It was why the Cameroons feared him so much and why Gove was so wary of throwing his lot in with Boris lest he become the fall guy.

      Boris is down now, and very funny it is too, but to think it's all forgive and forget is to fundamentally misunderstand how personal and poison filled the twits let these things become. Blair and Brown but with Etonian pompousness and arrogance.

      Boris could even pretend to bow out of politics altogether for now proclaiming a blessing of unity to those still in the lions den, but few would seriously believe it.

      Trust is all that matters when things get to this kind of clusterfuck and the blunt truth of the matter is none of the tory leadership hopefuls and 'big beasts' trust each other for a second.

      Nor do the Cameroons and the Brexiteers trust each other.

      Everything else is vanity politics and castles built on sand without that trust.

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  3. Oh please wouldn't a Scot in charge be such fun for all the little englanders.

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  4. You remember what Gove said on the morning following the 2003 Holyrood election? You sir, are truly an anorak.

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  5. Same here not a hint of Scots in that accent. May will win hands down.

    James would you be interested in doing a crowdfunder for a poll of Eu nationals in Scotland and how they might vote in indy ref 2? They could be crucial.

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  6. Scottish accent, really?

    Compare and contrast Gove's accent to his dad's in this BBC piece.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/36513412

    Gove has spent decades running away from his own background. And now his supporters are touting him on TV as the man who can speak to the kid from the council estate.

    ROFL

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  7. I do hope gove gets to be PM.
    I hope he gets to put in Article 50.
    I hope he gets to do the negotiating.
    Please EU give him everything he deserves.

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  8. The only difference between May and Gove is gender. They're two of the nastier members of the "Nasty Party" and whichever one gets landed with the poisoned chalice, the UK is still going to go down the pan.

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  9. It was May who put the nasty in the "nasty" Party----and how she has strived to live up to it!
    Gove, for someone regarded as a "brainbox" is giving a good impression of a thicko.
    But now the fun begins. Cameroon betrayed by Grove and Boris. Boris betrayed by Gove, who claims Boris cannot be trusted with the country. No one likes May, who would skin them all like 101 dalmations if she could.
    Meanwhile some jumptupling, from a council estate ----who's people were "trade", seems to think he can lead the Tories.
    Never been to Eton, nor is he a Bullingdon Boy----not "one of us"---oh no, sirree!

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  10. Gove's accent used to be common among people who were embarrassed to be Scottish. In Malcolm Rifkind's day, loads of Scots Tories sounded like that. Now it's really only Gove and Fraser Nelson keeping up the tradition.

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    1. That's it exactly! Couldn't quite remember who he reminded me of, but you've nailed it!

      Delete
  11. I don't wish to be unkind but he has the charisma of a corpse. May not much better.

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    1. Aiberdeen GoveserJuly 1, 2016 at 2:30 PM

      He's got the charisma of Teddy Taylor. And he's dead.

      Delete
  12. I've traveled all over Scotland, and, as yet, I've never came across that accent.
    Therefore, the answer is no.

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  13. Blairites of Mass DestructionJune 30, 2016 at 10:04 PM

    Evolve Politics ‏@evolvepolitics · 1 hour ago

    Angela Eagle’s leadership website registered before she resigned – by Blair’s PR man http://evolvepolitics.com/angela-eagles-leadership-website-registered-blairs-pr-man-2-days-ago/ …

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  14. Glasgow Working Class 2June 30, 2016 at 10:19 PM

    Kelvinside has a different accent from Glesga East End. The fact you Nat sis are lowering yourselves to talk about accents proves you are anti English Fash.

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    1. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJune 30, 2016 at 10:24 PM

      .

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 30, 2016 at 10:39 PM

      The poster above is attending a Nuremburg rally.

      Delete
    3. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJune 30, 2016 at 11:02 PM

      The poster above is a far-right racist troll from England
      Here is the proof. He wrote this. "Jock land the high dependency unit in the EU"

      Delete
    4. Essex Middle Class 2July 1, 2016 at 2:32 PM

      Glasgow Working Class 2 is a well-off lady from another country who drinks too many budget-price cocktails before dinner.

      Delete
  15. >>> profile completeJune 30, 2016 at 10:27 PM

    Fit? Alas not so much.

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  16. Looks like Lady MacGove has done for BoJo.
    Out out damned Bojo!

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  17. A Scottish accent hasn't held back Andrew Marr's career. Oh hang on........

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  18. Not with the Tory Party, erm wait a minute what Scottish accent? I suppose it might count for something with the Little Englanders at Disreporting Scotland and the STV Britannia branch in Aberdeen.

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  19. Glasgow Working Class 2June 30, 2016 at 11:55 PM

    A Scottish accent did not hold back all the business men that built industry in Scotland and across the world after 1707. Some Jokes would prefer eating mud and freedom. Wankers.

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    1. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJuly 1, 2016 at 12:11 AM

      ^

      Delete
    2. Hi Nadine! Shopping tomorrow at Whitewater. You up for it, my lovely?

      Delete
  20. A Scottish accent? Really? Well maybe a 'Scot trying hard not to be Scottish' accent.

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  21. The Great Westminster UltrashamblesJuly 1, 2016 at 12:47 AM

    Will the Blairites be big enough fools to force a leadership contest while Chilcott is on? They're fast running out of time.

    Well, going by just how dumb the tory establishment plotters are, you would have to say yes.

    Plenty of tories and Brexiteers are already pointing the finger at the cowardly Osborne for shoving poor little treacherous Govey over the top.

    Which begs the question. If it takes tory MPs a matter of hours for them to know who was behind it all, then what exactly was the point?? May at any price? Yeah, you've not really thought that one through, have you?

    Oh there are more than enough unscrupulous unprincipled careerists in the tory party to still slink off to May knowing the Cameroons are behind it all. But if you are aiming for any kind of stability in your party then running about cheering "Isn't George clever? He's biffed the Brexiteers!!" is something that's obviously going to come back and rip your 'stability' apart in an amusingly predictable manner down the road.

    If/When the Brexiteers decide they've had enough of May and have the numbers to hold another leadership contest, precisely what is going to stop them now? Loyalty?? ROFL A heartfelt plea from Cameron or Osborne? LOL Maybe not.

    No fucker trusts anyone in that party right now nor will that change for years. Enjoy trying to solve one of the most intractable problems imaginable in that atmosphere you silly twunts.

    'safe pair of hands' May is a blundering mega-shambles in waiting yet the twits are still struggling to comprehend just how much of a laughing stock they are and just how angry people are with their unbelievable westminster bubble self-indulgence and incompetence.

    If the plan was to make the westminster establishment look as inept and out of touch as humanly possible, then mission accomplished lads! Well done you! 'Jeeeesus! What a shower of complete twats!' is basically what everyone else is saying.

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  22. Third post-war Scottish PM? You're not counting Blair as Scottish-origin then?

    We've had Douglas-Home and Brown for sure, so if Gove would be a third, Blair's birthplace and Fettes and so on don't count?

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    1. Does he consider himself Scottish? I seriously doubt it. He spent relatively little of his childhood in Scotland. Yes, he was born there and attended Fettes AFTER spending years in Adelaide, South Australia and attending the Chorister School in Durham, England until 1966. As an adult, as far as I can tell, he has NEVER live in Scotland or been elected to any Scottish office.

      I would say that the Duke of Wellington's saying applies to Blair: Being born in a barn doesn't make you a horse.

      Delete
    2. Yes, I was just querying the " in terms of origin" part. I don't think Blair considered himself Scottish, but we've all had him cast up to us as "another Scot ruling England" by the right-wing little Englanders.

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    3. Yes, you're right, it was Blair I was leaving out. He doesn't consider himself Scottish, and his Scottish connections are a bit thinner than the others. I mean, Boris Johnson was born in New York, but "American" is not the first word that springs to mind about him.

      Delete
  23. Glasgow Working Class 2July 1, 2016 at 1:34 AM

    And your point? Just getting it aff yer chest!

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    1. The poster above is a far-right racist troll from EnglandJuly 1, 2016 at 2:53 AM

      .

      Delete
    2. I love the "Glasgow Working Class 2" persona. Is she Nadine Dorries in real life? Or just Kerry Katona?

      Delete
    3. Hi again Nadine. See you at Femme Fatale in Chigwell around 2 tomorrow afternoon, my lovely.

      Delete
  24. I think you're right about Gove's accent and origins not helping him in this country. His Uriah Heep persona seems to belong to the 1950s, like Teddy Taylor (Man of the People) or a bank manager/church of Scotland elder/primary headmaster. It seems to work in England, like that irritating patronising voice on TSB adverts, but Scotland has moved on from the Suez Crisis. Michael Gove sounds like he hasn't.

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  25. I was going to point out there have already been three Scottish-born PMs since WW2 but that's already been done.

    The other reason I'm writing is to question your arithmetic; odds of 4/1 represent a 25% probability, no?

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    Replies
    1. Scottish and Scots born are two entirely different things. There was nothing Scottish about Blair. English dad, Irish Mum, raised in Australia and sent to a quasi-English school which is based in Scotland but is not actually part of Scotland.

      Also he has never ever made any claim to be anything other then english.

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    2. 4/1 is a 20% possibility, I believe

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    3. I.e. four chances of losing, one chance of winning.

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    4. No, sorry, 4/1 means one chance in four. If you stake a pound you stand to win four pounds. That's 25%.

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    5. Nah, it's 20%. Evens (i.e. a 50% chance) is expressed as 1/1 - if you were right, it'd be 2/1.

      Delete
    6. Holebender : 4/1 is a 20% chance, not 25%.

      Delete
  26. I never tire of this cartoon, it has the man to a tee. http://aviewfromhamcommon.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/the-funniest-michael-gove-cartoon-youll.html

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  27. I don't think Gove is Human.

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  28. Finally somebody (it would be the Rev Stu) has reminded people of what was claimed in 2014.

    We were told constantly that when Scotland ended the 1707 treaty of Union that england would inherit all common assets, including membership of the EU. An outright lie that would have seen international sanctions and probably a declaration of war should they have maintained that stance.

    But now england is leaving the EU so by THEIR own rules Scotland must inherit the membership. They know that only two countries make up the UK. Both hold a joint membership of the EU.

    That is the reason why cameron and the rest of the project fear quislings never asked for a definitive ruling from the EU as to what would be the status of Scotland and england post independence. Because they already knew the answer.

    Either both remain members, even if under new terms.

    Both are kicked out and have to re-apply. Although no mechinism exists for that to happen.

    Or Scotland is just a colony of england illegally occupied by our greatest enemy that just uses us as slave, and the uk has no legal status in law.

    I hope that the FM managed to remind everybody she met about this rather important set of facts. Scotland is not catalonia, flanders, or any other region of pretend countries. Scotland is in a treaty based union. We can leave any time we like.



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    1. Hmmm, not sure about that.

      People seem to miss the rather obvious point, that anyone wishing to leave the EU must trigger article 50...thereby confirmation that the EU does not have the power to kick out sub-member states....or indeed eu citizens.

      In the event of independence in 2014, the EU would not have had the power to kick us out, that point seems to have been confirmed by recent events as if they wanted the UK, which by all comments they have made, then surely they would do so if they had the power.

      I am surprised more people haven't picked up on this.

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  29. What accent..?

    BTW. The other contender (Mrs May) is politically slightly to the right of one of her predecessors, Margaret Thatcher...!

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  30. But Ms May wears tartan! That surely means the britnat loves us, aye?

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  31. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/theresa-mays-child-abuse-inquiry-5038236

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  32. supporter of indepandent ScotlandJuly 1, 2016 at 3:51 PM

    Michael Gove's political antenna didn't improved :)

    http://stv.tv/news/politics/1353357-scotland-will-vote-to-leave-eu-claims-michael-gove/

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  33. "His political antenna" I hope its not improved.

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  34. I don't hear that accent as "Scottish",

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