Friday, June 24, 2016

We may be heading for a narrow Leave win - and for Indyref 2

There may yet be a joker in the pack tonight, as there was in the 1997 Welsh devolution referendum when the BBC briefly forecast No as the winners, only for Carmarthenshire to completely buck the national trend and carry Yes over the line with an overwhelming vote.  But at the moment, Leave appear to be the more likely winners.  We heard strong indications from Brian Taylor earlier (at a point when it still looked like Remain would coast to victory) that in the event of a vote to withdraw, Nicola Sturgeon would at least very quickly demand that Westminster gives Scotland the power to hold an early referendum if it so chooses.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I hope there's no backtracking on that plan - I think that's absolutely what's got to happen.  Voters were told in 2014 that if they voted No, they were voting to remain EU citizens.  They duly voted No.  Today, Scotland voted by a more than 'decisive' margin (to use the approved BBC word for anything north of 54%) to remain EU citizens.  We must now be allowed to remain EU citizens.  If that doesn't happen, it would be a democratic outrage - it's as simple as that.

UPDATE : I should point out that Remain are still the favourites on Betfair.  I can't say I remotely understand that given the numbers we're all looking at, but perhaps I'm missing something and the scenario I've just outlined isn't likely to happen after all.

UPDATE II :  I'll tell you another thing about what's happening tonight, and I know some of you don't want to hear this - it absolutely obliterates the myth that Yes would need to have a strong lead in the polls before it would have any chance of winning an independence referendum.  There isn't always a reversion to the status quo in constitutional referendums, and that must now be abundantly clear.

30 comments:

  1. I'm more minded that while the rhetoric should be bellicose towards the Tories at uk level and the BT parties in Scotland for their broken promise on eu citizenship, that the SNP should keep their powder dry on a second referendum.

    I'm more minded for waiting for the 2020 election and declaring that in the event of another Tory win that we're going for UDI.

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  2. Nicola would rather cut her own eyes out with a rusty razor blade than have IndyRef2

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    1. I've no idea if that's true, but a referendum is still very likely to happen in the event of a Leave

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    2. I just woke up and its a fuc*ing nightmare. I just hope Remain gets this by a handful of votes.

      I'm sick of voting - and that is one of the questions for Dave. We put our effort into Holyrood. Its very arrogant to expect us out again a few weeks later.

      The Scottish turnouts are surprisingly high. Given that the Ruth Party said little, Labour don't have any direction/purpose and we have clearly chosen not to allow the SNP to be subject to internal divisions.

      I hope YES Scotland gets a charismatic leader this time.

      Alba Gu Brath, Saor Alba!

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  3. When will Scottish voter be able to pass their verdict on the great Brian Taylor Strong indication/plan? Is he up for a councillor job in Glasgow next year?

    On a night when Labour blames the SNP for a thumping scottish remain it sadly does not seem out of place to be castigating Sturgeon for something Brian Taylor has said which hasn't even occurred anyway even if it was true.

    Do better.

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    1. Oh, don't be so daft. It was blindingly obvious that Brian Taylor had been briefed - he doesn't conjure something as specific as that from the depths of his imagination.

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    2. So you don't think there are previous examples of "blindingly obvious" rumourmongering involving the SNP/Sturgeon/Salmond that was just journo speculation?

      You might want to rethink precisely who is daft since that kind of thing might just have been slammed on here. Think back, you know it has.

      I'm not that long back from ballot sampling where the members and activists in our area worked pretty f**king hard on the IN campaign (with NO Labour/tory campaigns anywhere) so my patience for 'speculative' SNP bad/Sturgeon BAD is wafer thin right now.

      We're going to have a hell of a few months to manage if this goes how some of thought it was going for a long time. So maybe ease off on the 'How dare Sturgeon maybe nnot do something nobody but a jourtno has said' guff, till we know for certain this is Leave? Hmmm?

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    3. Oh, go away. I've no idea who you are, but my suggestion is that you show some dignity. I absolutely stand by what I said in the blogpost, and no, I do not agree with you that Brian Taylor was merely speculating. I am entitled to my own assessment and my own opinion. Sorry, but there it is.

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    4. "We heard strong indications from Brian Taylor earlier"

      "I do not agree with you that Brian Taylor was merely speculating"

      Strong speculative indications then. Better than tea leaves I suppose.

      Mebbes save your "go away" for GWC2 instead of someone who thinks you can do a great deal better than pre-emptively slamming Sturgeon for something she hasn't even done yet and which, at best, is a rumour passed on to a journo.

      If you don't like how she handles the Brexit fallout then feel free to hammer her/call for her to wehatever. But since we don't even have Brexit yet then ye might jist huv been a wee bit too eager to believe a bubble journo and jump all over the SNP/Sturgeon for a strategy which simply does not exist yet and is speculation.

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    5. Look, it's very late at night, and my patience with this nonsense is running very thin. I did not "slam" Nicola Sturgeon for anything. You know that, I know that, everyone can see that with their own eyes. There's very little prospect of us having a constructive conversation while you insist on inventing your own facts.

      I'm afraid you're going to have to accept this very painful and difficult truth - that people other than yourself are actually entitled to their own assessment and their own opinion, even if it differs wildly from your own.

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    6. Anon : for the avoidance of doubt, this exchange is closed.

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    7. Anon : Comment deleted. No, I cannot be here 24/7, but yes, any further abusive comments from you will be deleted as and when I see them.

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  4. I am hearing that Scotland Votes big to remain, but total # of votes is lower than expected and labor and SNP are arguing over whose fault. ....

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    1. Sorry Bill, you appear to have mistaken desparate lunatics in Labour blaming the SNP for a thumping remain win for SNP and Labour arguing.

      Nobody who can read a percentage thinks Labour are engaged in anything other than utter delusion and blaming everyone but themselves.

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    2. The turnout is much higher than I hoped. I would have argued Nicola had no mandate if the turnout was below 50%. So what if England has a higher turnout? I was scared from the level of enthusiasm I detected that we would get way under 40%. We are only a few points below England and they haven't had 4 ballots in 2 years.

      Its Nicola's call.

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  7. Why is the narrative so strongly that Leave have probably won, when the odds suggest the opposite? This is a really weird moment.

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    1. Leave are now marginal favourites on Betfair (probably because punters have heard what Curtice just said).

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  8. I am hearing that Scotland Votes big to remain, but total # of votes is lower than expected and labor and SNP are arguing over whose fault. ....

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  9. Leave 2/11 now. We're outta here.

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  10. Edinborough has voted leave

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    1. "Edinburgh backed Remain by 187,796 (74%) to 64,498 (26%), but results in England and Wales have been mu"

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    2. Edo 74:26 remain.

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    3. Perhaps he means Edinborough in Basildon.

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  11. In other news, I'm thinking Stephen Bush is a person to listen to.

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    1. He really is. Three absolutely massive calls in a row he's now got right, or very nearly right in the case of the general election.

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  12. Regarding Update 2, I don't think you can compare the campaigns.
    In this referendum, the media was split over which way to vote.
    In Indyref2, we will still have a united media against Independence.
    It is much easier to run a Project Fear campaign when you own the media.

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    1. That is actually not the case. There is the potential for some of the press to switch, not mention businesses heading to Scotland from England...

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  13. That's Scotland finished counting.

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