Saturday, June 25, 2016

Scotland now supports independence by almost two-to-one margin, says historic poll

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 59%
No 32%

This is a Sunday Post poll, and as far as I can see they haven't mentioned which firm conducted it yet.  I can't believe they'd be splashing on a voodoo poll, so it probably is a genuine one, but we'd maybe better be slightly cautious until we know the identity of the pollster.  Strictly speaking I'm not sure if we've even been officially told that the No figure is 32% (the front page of the paper just mentions the 59% Yes figure), but so many people are confidently quoting Yes 59%, No 32% that I presume that must be correct.

UPDATE : Peter Geoghegan saying there's a "very different result" in tomorrow's Sunday Times, which presumably means much less good for Yes.

UPDATE II : Another rumour on Twitter that the Sunday Times poll gives Yes a modest 4% lead.  No word on the polling firm for either poll as far as I can see.

UPDATE III : I'm hearing the Sunday Times poll is from Panelbase.  That may be good news - in the past, Panelbase polls have tended to be resistant to movement on the independence question, even at times when other firms have been showing big swings.  So what we really need to know now is whether the Sunday Post poll showing a big Yes lead is a credible poll.

UPDATE IV : This could be slightly disappointing news - the Sunday Post poll was conducted by ScotPulse.  On past form, that may mean it's a kind of 'half-breed poll' - not a voodoo poll, but not fully scientifically rigorous either.

44 comments:

  1. Wow... I was expecting this.

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  2. That's just below 65% when DKs are removed.

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    1. Who were polled? Does it include EU nationals who have been kicked in the teeth by Brexit and who were terrified into voting NO in 2014.

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  3. Impressive but am I the only one who thinks that Brexit will never happen. I appreciate and accept the democratic choice made on Thurs but my gut feeling is that the powers behind the scenes will orchestrate a situation where the question is put again.

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    1. My gut says that uk gov just won't sing section 50 and so ignore the results at least for a long time. Whether or not the electorate (or the EU) could do anything about it is anybody's guess.

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    2. This is possible, but will it matter for Scotland? I'm not so sure. Even if Gove/Boris want to drag it out they'll still have to commit to Brexit in principle and therefore there's little reason for Scottish voters to change their views on independence.

      I think we have to see how stable this is over the coming weeks, but on the face of it these are remarkable, game changing numbers. It should also be said that support for independence is a pretty fundamental issue for people at this point and therefore less prone to random spikes up and down (the way support for the EU was, for example).

      Therefore this kind of massive shift in attitudes could well be lasting and whatever the details of the second referendum end up being, it simply isn't tenable to continue to have a UK if Scottish voters split in such an extreme way in favour of independence. It would be a question of when independence happens, not if.

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    3. A referendum is a referendum - it is a done deal - it has happened.

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    4. No you are not. We have to kind of hope the French kiss off is the view of others. Angela is being cautious. David Lammy is suggesting Westminster ignore the vote ( and the Crown In Parliament is sovereign ).

      We are jumping guns a bit too. I have read all manner of comments that are actually remain bullshit. I saw one about the E111 card. This works in Iceland and umpteen other non EU jurisdictions already. Its not conditional on EU membership.

      The English may have imagined they were breaking away from the EU, but all they have voted for is to walk away from having any say in the rules and admin. They will still have to pay in. They will still get the migrants they despise, they will still be subject to all the rules. They will be allowed to deport Eurocrims, but we all know how efficient the justice system is at deporting the non EU ones.

      We need to prepare for the referendum. Reform Yes groups. Start designing literature. But its going to be a few weeks til the starting pistol is fired. So far Nicola wants talks. Unless and until the EU makes clear we are in, our status is unknown. Then there are the issues in other countries. Several have large pro-exit factions. The economy is not dynamic in large parts of Europe. There is no guarantee that this stupid choice wont be the first crack in a collapse of the dam.

      We would be wise to wait a week or so before we give the drafts to the printers.

      I so so want thgis to be it. The final battle. But there's no lines drawn yet. Best relax. And build your ammunition.

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    5. no the powers that be cant have it

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    6. Is there any way the public could get another vote on a final settlement?

      If the UK ends up having to accept freedom of movement, but has no influence in Europe, would people in England be happy with that ?

      The only way I could see it realistically happening is if the economy tanks, and then Labour campaigns to rejoin at the next general election.
      But it seems like many of their voters went for a Brexit, so would they do that. Corbyn isn't very committed it seems

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    7. you looking forward to the riots then Robert?.....

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  4. I would suspect theSunday Post of trying it on, trying to force the pressure to go for an early Ref. I'll be holding off for this one.

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    1. Trying it on to sell the nasty rag as well!

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  5. No false summits please Mr Kelly.
    If this is an extremely low number just picked to get a front page I will be disappointed. So I will just ignore it till you can confirm its a significant set of data worth notice.

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    1. Apparently the problem with its size isn't "too small". Sample size 1700, which is an odd number. Perhaps they wanted larger subsamples for certain regions or other variables.

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    2. I'm cautious about this poll, but not because of the sample size - sometimes you get a completely random number.

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  6. Never Trust Westminster Politicians or UK Media in any shape or form.

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  7. Come on, Scotland the brave! Yeh, it's time to say goodbye London!!!

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    1. London voted Remain.

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    2. A third of SNP support voted out Shhh......!keep that quiet. Of course they also opposed entry to the EU in the first place. Confused ???????

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  8. Come on, Scotland the brave! Yeh, it's time to say goodbye London!!!

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  9. Anecdotally, based on hearing from No voters I know, I'm not at all surprised by the Sunday Post figures. A 4% Yes lead sounds ridiculously small.

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  10. If the UK parliament ignores the result then UKIP would win the next election. What then?

    And for all the so-called "anti-democratic" nature of the EU, I actually don't think the EU would stand for the UK parliament ignoring the result of the referendum. They'd likely tell them to get lost.

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    1. I agree Donald, just as the independence referendum result was an extremely bitter pill to swallow, especially given that we lost not because of native born Scots a majority of whom voted yes. We all had to accept the result and move forward. Many voters probably a high percentage of the non-UK voters were misled by project fears lies about losing out on EU membership if Scotland voted yes { a tad ironic that one }

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    2. Difference is, the Scottish referendum was clear. Unless Glasgow/Dundee went off and declared independence from Scotland (which would undermine the whole point) there wasn't much debate about the result.

      The EU referendum is different. We have parts of the UK (Scotland, Northern Ireland) voting one way and the rest of the UK voting another. Scotland has now voted twice in favour of being part of the EU/EC, it has a clear majority for it in its own parliament and among all Scottish MPs. If we're going to recognise Scotland as a distinct democratic unit it's at best extremely troubling from that perspective to have the rights of Scottish citizens fundamentally altered against their consent.

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  11. Aye, but it shows why the First Minister and her team have to ca' canny. One over-excited poll result so close to a big event is no sound basis for a decision.

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    1. Agree, Simon. I think the important thing is that neither the idea that Brexit has (or will) happen nor the idea of Scotland becoming independent as a result has normalised yet. I think a lot of people are still in shock. This will change when it becomes clear how Westminster intends to handle things, and when people get an idea of how receptive European officials are to Nicola's overtures (ie if they are, people will become more confident that there is a place for Scotland in the EU if we were to vote Yes in an indyref 2). These things will be key to arriving at a steady picture of what people will want to do when the dust settles (at least somewhat!).

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    2. Agreed. Basically what has happened is that lots of soft NO's have become soft YES's overnight. They flipped quickly and they can quickly flip back. I do think hard support for indy will grow but it will take time. We must remain calm but be ready, however. Things are unravelling fast and as they say "events, dear boy, events". Th WM elites are running around like headless chickens, and we are certainly seeing lots of events (by the hour). Its a highly dynamic situation, so nothing can be ruled out.

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  12. Was the Sunday Post poll the one that Survation has been doing?

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  13. Not sure what ca' canny means.but sounds right.!!

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  14. I could only Hope.

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  15. "Ca' canny" = I say old chap, steady on a bit, what? :-)

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  16. I think even a 4% lead is enough to go on. With Boris in charge of Ukmagedon I see nothing to doubt support will build. I have detected a very different tone in the media.

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  18. Sindy 2 will be won very easily I think. Will be sad to see you go but Edinburgh can take alot of London finance services jobs as it will be in the finance passport area.

    Best of luck :)

    (Pulpstar from pb.com)

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  19. Will Europe require us to have an independence referendum in order for Scotland to remain in the EU? Maybe,maybe not.We might just continue in Europe and sort of just drift out of the UK.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 26, 2016 at 11:04 AM

      Scotland would require to be independent and apply as a seperate country.. Why did the Nat sis participate in the EU referendum if Scotland were entitled to remain in its own right. You Nat sis live in cloud cuckoo land. The sooner Scotland has a referendum the better.

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    2. Farage orders you to lie down. He needs to wipe his feet.

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    3. GWC having listened to the constant mantra 'accept the result of the referendum!' Trotted out by Yoons, it's rather sweet to see you criticise us for accepting matters and participating in the glorious democracy that is the kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (spot the deliberate mistakes). It's clear that Cameron and Better Together made promises that they weren't able to, or had no intention to, keep. If a central plank of their campaign was only the uk guaranteed being in the EU, and people are now saying it was one of their main reasons for not voting Yes, it is perfectly understandable for them to react to the pig in a poke that is WM. When the ex chair of the Labour Party in Scotland and some other significant labour apparatchiks announce that they would support Yes, I think the ball might be on the slates for the uk. Pressure looks to be coming from conditional No voters who are attached to the UK and believed the broken BT argument.

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  20. I notice the Herald is running its own online poll. Which should come with all sorts of health warnings, given its unscientific nature and the Herald's political stance. So it's quite amusing to see that 79% want to leave the UK. I guess the NAT voters wake up earlier in the morning than the yoons. That is surely the only explanation :-)
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14578842.Vote_in_the_Sunday_Herald_s_IndyRef2_poll/

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  21. Bear in mind only 41% of eligible Scots voted Remain. Another referendum, the thing we do daily now in Scotland sees us jump in and out if the UK and EU on a daily basis. At done point a politician will respect a referendum redult. There's already 2m on EU2 . If politician's don't start administering what they are elected to do, they have no point. Ok other than collecting 4 million if taxpayers money in Scotland.

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