Sunday, June 26, 2016

Decisive majority for independence in sensational post-referendum Survation poll

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Survation)

Yes 54% (+6)
No 46% (-6)

The percentage changes are from a Survation poll in April, which as far as I can see is the last time the firm polled on independence.

Although these figures are only a little better for Yes than we saw in the Panelbase poll last night, they're still significant because they substantially increase the chances that the pro-independence majority is really there.  The Yes lead in Panelbase was within the margin of error, but tonight's lead is not.

This is by some distance the best ever showing for Yes in a Survation poll - the previous high watermark was 51%, which was in the only previous poll from the firm to ever show an outright Yes lead (in March of last year).  There was one other which reported a dead heat, but other than that it's been wall-to-wall No leads.  Although there was a spell during the independence referendum when we regarded Survation as one of the three relatively Yes-friendly firms (alongside ICM and Panelbase), that changed radically as polling day approached, and Yes found it frustratingly difficult to make the sort of breakthrough in Survation polls that they were managing in polls from other firms.  48% was the best they ever did with Survation prior to the referendum, even at a time when ICM were putting them as high as 54%, YouGov were putting them as high as 51%, and TNS were putting them as high as 50%.  And remember that it's actually got harder for Yes to do well in polls since the referendum, because weighting by recalled referendum vote was introduced to correct a small systemic error.  So basically what I'm saying is that 54% in a Survation poll is a really big deal, even if some people might have been dreaming of something even better.

UPDATE : Much of what I wrote above was based on the assumption that this was an online poll, in line with the vast majority of past Survation polls on independence - in fact, it was a telephone poll, so the direct comparison doesn't work quite so well.  (Although it is directly comparable with the private Survation telephone poll for Better Together on the weekend prior to the indyref, which was only published because - like Survation online polls at the time - it was relatively unfavourable for Yes.)  And as Calum Findlay notes in the comment section below, Survation seem to be saying that this poll wasn't weighted by recalled referendum vote, because they found evidence of false recall - but they don't reveal in which direction.  Could that mean past vote weighting has slightly distorted the results of past polls?

UPDATE II : From the datasets, it's clear that Survation think that many people are wrongly recalling (or claiming to recall) that they voted Yes in 2014 when they actually voted No.  If Survation are wrong about that, this poll may have overestimated Yes.  But if they're right, it's possible that many previous polls since the indyref have underestimated Yes.  A third possibility is that false recall may have only emerged as a factor due to the outcome on Thursday, with some people now embarrassed to admit that they voted to keep Scotland in the UK.

Survation also seem to be assuming quite considerable false recall or embarrassment in relation to EU referendum vote, because the weighted figures have Remain winning in Scotland by 73% to 27% - way above the real figures of 62% to 38%.

72 comments:

  1. Rory Bremner ‏@rorybremner · 2 hours ago

    LATEST: Brexit appoint Lord Chilcot to look into arrangements for triggering Article 50.



    Stephen Moore ‏@steve_m10 · 4 hours ago

    Even Baldrick had a fucking plan.


    Dr Paul Monaghan MP ‏@_PaulMonaghan · 2 hours ago

    Bank of England has allocated £250,000,000,000 to prop up the pound. That's about £15,000 for each UK subject or 20 years #EU contributions.




    Liam Hoare ‏@lahoare · 3 hours ago

    The situation Boris is describing here is membership of the European Union

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/ …

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  2. As I'm sure many will have experienced, many Labour people of my acquaintance have been switching from no to yes, including one elected councillor.

    All hands to the pump now. I shall be visiting all my regional Labour MSPs to put the heat on. I shall also be having a LONG conversation with Professor Tomkins.

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  3. 54-46? And a majority opposed to holding another independence referendum, in the same poll?

    Not a good enough result for the separatists. The No camp remain very much competitive, even in the immediate, shocking aftermath of the brexit.

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    Replies
    1. I don't support another referendum right now, but I do support independence for Scotland. There's no need for a Scottish iref; it's E&W going independent from us and the EU. Scottish government should continue as they are, talking to the EU to ensure Scotland Remains and only hold an iref down the line if the rUK gets uppity.

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    2. I am not sure she will call it. I think she will let it play out, she knows whats at stake but we need to wait and see what brexit looks like.

      To be honest, if it was me, I wouldnt call one and let things stew and simmer....until after the now expected general election, where we can go for cleaning up again but then if as expected the right wing cleans up in england, we can use their total disregard for us to our advantage.

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    3. But Aldo you said there would not be a uk-wide vote to leave the EU. Indeed you were adamant about it and poured scorn upon those who suggested otherwise. Why should we take any notice of your comments from now on? You're as much of a laughing stock as the so-called united kingdom.

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    4. I failed to call the result. I had plenty of company in that, however - bookies, polling companies, financial institutions.

      We in the UK see ourselves as 4 different nations. But the rest of the world doesn't see it that way - they regard us as one unit. Also, the rules of diplomacy dictate that you don't interfere in the internal affairs of a foreign country. Expect Sturgeon to be ignored until such time as the UK has left the EU and Scotland has obtained its independence from the UK in the legitimate way.

      Just reality folks - don't shoot the messenger.

      Aldo

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    5. That's a fair comment,Aldo,but we are in an extraordinary situation.There are discussions going on right now.Nicola wouldn't have announced she was seeking talks unless she was sure someone would talk.This may be out with normal,official channels,but we are already hearing supportive messages from politicians on the European mainland.

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    6. At the very least, we would need to take the euro, austerity and an international border with England across which free trade would no longer be possible.

      People are angry. Their Scottish pride is hurt as they have been overruled by England. But when the dust settles and people examine the situation calmly and objectively, they will soon see that the better option is to stay in the UK and accept the negotiated settlement between Britain and the EU.

      Aldo

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    7. But, but, but the Daily Mail says it so it must be troo

      PMSL

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    8. @Aldo....I think the SNP moved too fast and too aggressively. I want independence but now think this second chance is blown apart.

      Boris is moving fast to the Norway Option which will have great support. Lets face it, why do many people like the EU? Its the idea that you personally have free movement something 99% will never use but they talk about it as if they will.

      The Norway Option greatly reduces EU net contributions by @ £7 Billion, makes low skilled inward immigration more difficult, brings back the fishing industry to Scotland, gets the UK back on the world stage negotiating agreements.

      If Boris is smart, since we already voted to leave the EU which must IMO be democratically respected, there will need to be another referendum to join the EFTA/EEA. How does the SNP lobby against that one?

      A second step referendum on joining the EFTA/EEA will gain large support in all four nations, it will reunite the Torries, neuters the UKIP fox, puts the SNP and Labour in a tight spot.

      It will not be supported by the fringes being the eurphile Lib Dems and by UKIP.

      The UK in EFTA/EEA puts all the UK back into being Global Britain whilst preserving the ever declining single market.

      Its not "perfect" and I did not consider it before but since we have voted to Leave and having looked at it, EFTA/EEA (Norway Option) looks very good for us and allows "rump EU" to get on with what they are doing.

      IF there was an indyref2, the question is Scotland better off in the UK and in the EEA/EFTA or is better off being independent and in the EU?

      George Stewart

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    9. @Chalks and @Scottish Skier, I recognize your online names fro indyref1 and they are kind of restoring some faith on cooler heads. We have been a given a gift but it is very fragile, we will not have another chance.

      But I honestly believe Indyref2 will fail under the UK EFTA/EEA option.

      As a nationalist I am very troubled that whilst the SNP rightly believes that Scottish law should not come from Westminster but on the other hand they believe it should come from Brussels. I believe that Scottish law should come from neither!!!

      Cheers, George Stewart

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    10. George, the question is. Would you still vote yes?

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    11. Anyone who thinks the next IndyRef is doomed to fail under Nicola Sturgeon's leadership do of course always have the option to find someone like RISE or Sillars and see if they will provide the leadership they seek.

      I don't think too many SNP members and voters are going to be too keen to seek other options after watching out First Minster's actions compared to the tory and labour westminster clusterf**k.

      But hey, I could be wrong. ;)

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    12. "I failed to call the result. I had plenty of company in that, however - bookies, polling companies, financial institutions."

      You didn't "fail to call the result". You stated, with the iron certainty that you continue to display, that Remain was a done deal and consequently the independence issue was dead (though now, apparently, the Leave vote means it's dead too). Which bookies and polling companies did that?

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    13. Many people thought it a done deal, anon. And I never claimed a remain vote would kill indy - just boot it into the long grass.

      However, this situation, depending on how it unfolds, has the potential to kill indy.

      George Stewart, I agree that a move towards an EU halfway house with single market access retained is now very likely - and will damage the independence drive if Scots subsequently find that settlement more favourable than the one we left.

      It's a hugely complex situation and will take absolutely ages to resolve. So the union of Scotland and England is safe for a long time to come - and may even be solidified.

      Aldo

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    14. The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty - fad.

      Aldo

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    15. One question, Aldo - how will Scotland adopt the Euro? Will the ECB allow us to bypass the ERM? Will it ignore its current policy of not even allowing any new countries to adopt the Euro until the economy is in a more stable position?

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    16. The EU are now pushing Scotland to call or try to call a referendum and to be honest, I do not know if that is a good idea.

      I might be thinking about it too much, but we need cast iron guarantees from the EU that we would be in it and maintain the UKs vetos.

      Only way people will go yes, and I do not mean some statement from merkels spokesperson, it isnt good enough especially not in light of the general distrust people have for politicians.

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  4. I kinda of like our First Minister. She seems to me to talk for Scotland, and that.

    Yup! A decent and intelligent leader. Thank goodness we have someone like that!

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  5. This is a little worrying ! http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_576faf9be4b0d2571149c8b9

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  6. There will still be plenty of No voters still progressing through the stages of grief. Lots will still be in Denial or Bargaining and not ready to reach the end stage. Once they get to Acceptance, then they too will turn to Yes as the only hopeful solution.

    I can see this growing. Also support for another vote was still only 52%, that will grow as well as Yes voters who still don't think we are ready realise just how much the polls are shifting.

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  7. James, what do you think about Survation's note that 2014 referendum vote shows signs of false recall? They haven't weighted into line with the 2014 because they say the rest of the sample appears to be politically accurate.

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  8. Its upto Messers Davidson,Dugdale,Rennie and Harvie to call for an indyref2 if they are unhappy about Scotland remaining in Europe.

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    Replies
    1. Could they all agree on anything? I am probably in the Harvie camp after independence. I am unaware of his antipathy to Europe? And did not the tank commander straddle a weapon whilst proclaiming her affection for Europe?

      I think it is a bit more complicated than you think.

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    2. "Messrs" is the plural of "mister".

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  9. This:

    http://news.sky.com/video/1717859/islam-there-is-no-brexit-plan

    No idea.

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  10. At end of a more general poll, YouGov asking if people willing to support the creation of a National Government while Labour and the Tories sort their sh*t out.

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    Replies
    1. The problem, is that the national government would have to be mostly SNP, because no-one else down there has a clue what they're doing. Since the biggest and second biggest parties are both in complete turmoil, it would have to fall to the third-biggest party - The SNP.

      Imagine the response in little england to an SNP-led national government.

      Though, I guess threatening that might just be enough to get one of the larger tory parties to get their act together...

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    2. I'm loving the fact that anyone is still paying much attention to the Blairites laughably inept 'coup'.

      Talk about missing the bigger picture.

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    3. That Benn and co are even mounting a coup at this point, at a time when the government has needlessly brought a total calamity upon us, shows what tiny, parochial, infantile men and women they are.

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    4. You add this to Chilcott and you have to say it's very hard to see how anyone could openly be a Blairite in Labour and expect anything other than utter contempt from Labour voters from here on in. Which they richly deserve.

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    5. As usual,when they say "national",they really mean England.
      We already have a stable national government here in Scotland thank you very much.

      Delete
  11. Glasgow Working Class 2June 27, 2016 at 1:14 PM

    I personally think Cameron wanted out. He was retiring at the next Gen Election. He is filthy rich and will not be affected. And he was a Thatcherite.

    Can any of you Nat sis explain why you want in the event of independence just to hand it away to the EU.

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    Replies
    1. Far-Right Racist Class 2June 27, 2016 at 1:23 PM

      You said Jo Cox's Husband was a fascist. So, again, who gives a flying f**k what a far-right racist like you thinks.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 27, 2016 at 2:18 PM

      How many Nat si liars are oot there in the bloggosphere. Since when did you fash give a toss about Labour.

      Delete
    3. You still called Jo Cox's husband a fascist. Sling your hook.

      Delete
  12. Paul Waugh ‎@paulwaugh

    No10 spkswoman on #indyref2

    "The last thing Scotland needs now is a divisive referendum".

    Looked offended when Lobby hacks laughed out loud

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  13. So what exactly does independence look like now?

    What exactly are the trade arrangements going to be between the UK and the EU. Nobody knows!! So we are really angry that Brexit is putting at risk something like 16-20% of our export market, so we are proposing to sort this by fucking up 64% of our export market instead.

    If the UK doesn't agree free movement of people with the EU Scotland wishes to have free movement with the rest of the EU but not the UK - are people being fucking serious here.

    So what is the currency to be. The pound I hear you say, it's ours too after all. Ask Greece what it is like to have a currency without fiscal and political union. So the Euro it is then - good luck with that.

    So Nicola knows what she is doing - really!! Other than make a valid point about the democratic will of the Scottish people being ignored on one political issue I see not one single pertinent idea as to what the fuck to do now.

    Calm the fuck down everyone, stop grandstanding and wait to see how this pans out.

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    Replies
    1. "I see not one single pertinent idea as to what the fuck to do now."

      You said it Boris. LOL

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 27, 2016 at 2:36 PM

      Sturgeon did not want the people to have a vote. Voting is only on the terms of the Nat sis

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    3. Far-Right Racist ClassJune 27, 2016 at 2:47 PM

      You said Jo Cox's Husband was a fascist. So, once again, who gives a flying f**k what a far-right racist like you thinks.

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    4. A currency union whether Euro or Pound would be a disaster. Sovereign Scottish currency is the only way forward. Really hope the SNP get their act together on the currency front this time.

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    5. Yeah that was my point.

      Independence just now without a proper currency solution is daft in my opinion.

      Look, an independence campaign requires people to sit and weigh up the arguments again. A brand new white paper if you will. The arguments are now changed drastically and some of the answers are completely up in the air. Nicola Sturgeon has admitted as much.

      I state again she has not come up with a single pertinent point as to how we move forward, not a criticism, just a fact. To be fair much of the way forward is completely out of her control.

      Hopefully I avoid the stupidity of the resident trolls on here. If you disagree at least have the decency to validate your argument.

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    6. Expecting Indyref next week are you? Then don't be so amusingly petulant demanding immediate answers for something everyone knows we WILL make all the appropriate preparations for.

      You are somehow confusing us with the rank amateurs and incompetents who ran this shambolic referendum. A schoolboy error to be sure.


      Nor will you get far on here having a hissy fit just because someone dares to contrast the complete and utter fucking chaos of those who SHOULD have had a plan with someone who is moving forward and has garnered mass support for her leadership and actions here in Scotland.

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    7. Armchair Revolution (with a lovely Bordeaux)June 27, 2016 at 7:06 PM

      Surely the answer is for RISE to form a drum circle and hash the currency question out between bong hits? They don't have to worry about all that peripheral 'running the country' stuff.

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    8. Nothing stopping RISE or any other pro-Indy party developing their ideas right now. Same thing obviously applies as last time though, Greens can't speak for SNP, SNP can't speak for Greens etc. That's how it works.

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  14. Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh · 2 hours ago

    Don't panic, Britain. We're in safe hands. Oliver Letwin is in charge of Brexit cross-Govt preparations, No10 says. Yes, Oliver Letwin.



    Chris Cook ‏@xtophercook · 1h

    From the team that brought you the NHS reforms! And the GOV.UK websites! And supervised Kids Company!

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  15. Oliver Nitwit to the rescueJune 27, 2016 at 2:35 PM

    Abi Wilkinson ‏@AbiWilks · 48m

    The Oliver Letwin plotline is what made me realise this can't be real life

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    Replies
    1. Cameron's clearly going for a scorched earth policy to make life even more of a nightmare for his successor. Good on him.

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    2. Foppocalypse NowJune 27, 2016 at 3:53 PM

      Cameron is still going down in history as one of the most incompetent and disasterous PM's in modern times.

      Particularly after his cowardly fucking off, hiding for days and having no plan for Brexit.

      Same goes for Osborne.

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    3. Credit where it's due, Cameron did at least show up to resign. Before going off to have a wee cry.

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  16. Jon ‏@ormondroyd · 18h18 hours ago

    Q: How many Brexiters does it take to change a lightbulb?

    A: We never said there was a lightbulb.

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  17. Glasgow Working Class 2June 27, 2016 at 2:59 PM

    Ex BofE Gov Meryvn King has talked some sense today. He also pointed out that you do not call people stupid when campaigning. Learn this lesson Natsi Bhoys

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    Replies
    1. Far-Right Racist Class 2June 27, 2016 at 3:05 PM

      You claimed Jo Cox's Husband was a fascist. So, once again, who gives a flying f**k what a far-right racist like you thinks.

      Delete
  18. @Nigel_Farage tells @susannareid100 it was a 'mistake' for Leave to claim there'd be £350M a week for NHS

    Days after Farage said it was a mistake Iain Duncan Smith distances himself from £350m NHS pledge

    Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage · 6h

    Establishment must accept the result. The British people voted to take back control of our borders & our democracy.

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    Replies
    1. Except they didn't vote for any such thing. The question was "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" Now that the answer is clear, we have to leave the EU. What happens afterwards is completely open to question. Do we opt for the Singapore model, or the Norway model. If the UK decides to go for the Norway model (the more likely option), then our borders will remain outwith our control vis-a-vis EU migration. We've been sold a pup.
      Alex Birnie

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    2. But it's not entirely up to Britain to decide whether to opt for the Norway option. If the EU decides that's not on offer (and it sounds like they will do), there's nothing Britain can do about it.

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  19. Replies
    1. And GWC is the left one.

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    2. A complete twat but a twat who can easily hold the incompetent Boris and the tory party to hostage from here on in on the immigration part of Brexit and Brexit itself.

      Which he will do.

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  20. Weird piece in the Express on the Survation poll, claiming that SNP voters are the most anti-EU of any party in Scotland, because they're ahead of Labour and the LDs. They literally appear to have forgotten about the existence of the Conservatives. Are these people actually being given money to write this stuff?

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    Replies
    1. Leaving aside dodgy reporting, I think there are two points here. The first is that for that section of Scottish society that hates the establishment, hates London, hates the "metropolitan elite" (whoever they are), bashes Guardian readers 24/7, and so on, both Brexit and independence have some kind of similar appeal in the sense that they're the exact opposite of what the establishment wanted. What percentage of SNP/Yes support these people make up is anybody's guess but it isn't actually that surprising that some Yes voters also backed leave.

      The second point, and the most damaging one for those who are hoping for a No vote in a second referendum, is that the mere fact these people support leaving the EU doesn't mean they're no longer going to support independence. The reasons why they supported independence haven't changed because of Brexit. The people Brexit has actually made a major difference to are the kind of middle class, pragmatic types who opposed independence in 2014 but now want no part in a post-Brexit UK.

      In other words, the net effect of Brexit on existing Yes supporters is likely to be limited, while the effect on No voters is likely to be far stronger. That would explain the swing in the poll we've seen.

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    2. According to Aidan Kerr on Twitter, the Survation poll said that SNP voters were two points more in favour of Brexit than their Tory counterparts.

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    3. "hates the "metropolitan elite" (whoever they are)"

      Turn on your TV. Can't miss em. Still flapping about like headless chickens.

      No point denying their existence since they did everything possible to irritate and annoy voters outside the westminster bubble and they did an incredibly good job. For Leave.

      "the mere fact these people support leaving the EU doesn't mean they're no longer going to support independence."

      See Keaton and the reply below.

      It's a complicated series of factors that merits further polling but in essence you are of course correct.

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    4. That can't be true. Every SNP voter is an automaton, slavishly following the party line. No debate or dissent is tolerated in Sturgeon's Scotland.

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    5. Why rely on Aidan Kerr on Twitter? The data tables are publicly available. 32.4% of Scottish Tories went Leave, and only 25.6% of SNP voters.

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  21. James in the tables it says unweighted 2014 past vote is 50/50, and the weighted numbers show the previous referendum result as Yes: 52% No: 48%.

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  22. When can we expect a poll on support for EU membership? That would be an interesting question to ask right now.

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    Replies
    1. The party % of the EU vote were broken down reasonably well by Ashcroft. Though that isn't be the same as your question. More factors also came into play than just the question on the Ballot. Things are also different now, to say the least. Which would indeed make it fairly interesting. Though it would also need to be qualified by priority since it is inevitable Indy would hold primacy in a lot of cases.

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  23. Lets get on with it.

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    Replies
    1. Why, is there something on? Cripes! I should have been in Parliament today. Crumbs! If that isn't a dashed nuisance.

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