Monday, June 6, 2016

Leave open up 4-point lead in dramatic YouGov poll

The psychology of the EU referendum race has certainly shifted rapidly.  It seems like no time at all since we were looking at opinion poll evidence of a potentially decisive swing to Remain, and weighing it up against other poll evidence suggesting that nothing much had changed.  Now the only realistic question is the opposite one - has there been a sizeable swing to Leave?  The biggest reason for thinking there may well have been is the most recent ICM telephone poll, which showed a completely unprecedented outright lead for Leave.  But there hasn't been any other phone poll since then to corroborate or undermine that finding, and the ORB phone poll that was conducted at more or less the same time was murderously difficult to interpret (mainly because the trend in the ORB phone series has been as mad as a bucket of frogs from the word go).

We've had a few recent online polls, which weren't particularly conclusive either.  ICM's own online poll and last night's Opinium poll both reported a swing to Leave, but not on the same scale as the phone poll, and in neither case were the headline figures outside the 'normal range'.  Last week's YouGov poll showed no movement in either direction, although that wasn't necessarily inconsistent with a swing to Leave, especially given that the previous poll from the same firm had shown a pro-Leave shift.  The standard margin of error can conceal a swing that is actually happening just as easily as it can generate a false impression of movement when everything is static.  Tonight's new YouGov poll would tend to support that interpretation, because it comes into line with ICM and Opinium by showing a 4-point boost for Leave.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain 41% (n/c)
Leave 45% (+4)

So just how good is that for Leave?  It's quite hard to say whether a 4% lead is within the 'normal range' for YouGov, because they certainly haven't reported a Leave advantage as big as that for several months, and yet if you travelled back in time to the winter or autumn, tonight's result would seem reasonably routine.  Strangely, the sudden boost for Remain that occurred towards the end of February appeared to be a YouGov 'house effect' - other firms weren't picking it up, so it's impossible to know for sure whether the fact that it's now being reversed is directly linked to the Leave surge that's been reported by other firms.  But it's hard to escape the impression that a pattern is emerging.

The case for the defence as far as Remain is concerned is that tonight's TNS poll doesn't show any movement to Leave (although it does show a modest Leave lead).  However, the fieldwork is ancient, so in reality it doesn't contradict other firms' findings at all.

I had a sort of epiphany tonight when I saw Doug Daniel's reaction to the YouGov poll.  This is what he said on Twitter -

"I remember back during the proper referendum when we would've thought this meant we were winning. 14% undecided."

"folk will s**** it just like they did in 2014."

It suddenly struck me that the outcome of this referendum is going to affect the chances of a second indyref in more ways than one.  As of this moment, there's a very strong assumption that there's always bound to be a substantial late swing against the change option in any constitutional referendum.  So if that myth is proved to be false over the coming weeks (I firmly believe it is false, but if it's very visibly proved to be false), it's going to affect people's thinking quite profoundly.  It's certainly going to be pretty hard to sustain the ultra-cautious line that we need an implausibly huge opinion poll lead for independence over a sustained period of time before we can even think of going to the people again.  On the other hand, if the Leave vote does collapse as polling day approaches, the Caution Faction will feel further emboldened (if that isn't a contradiction in terms).

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SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

We've reached a stage in the campaign where a three-week time-frame for the Poll of Polls seems far too long - polls are coming thick and fast, and public opinion may be changing very quickly.  To keep the sample as up-to-date as possible, from now on I'm only going to include polls that were at least partly conducted within the last two weeks.

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 43.9% (-1.7)
Leave 43.2% (+1.6)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 42.1% (-0.2)
Leave 43.3% (+0.4)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 45.7% (-3.2)
Leave 43.0% (+2.7)

(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last two weeks. The online average is based on seven polls - three from YouGov, one from TNS, one from Opinium, one from BMG and one from ICM.  The telephone average is based on three polls - one from ORB, one from ICM and one from Survation.)

34 comments:

  1. Getting worse for Remain by the day it seems. It kind of looks on first impression as if the undecided are falling to Leave.

    I am not at all surprised considering the woeful campaign that Stay/ Stronger in Europe has run. It just seems to be pissing off the little Englanders.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working ClassnJune 6, 2016 at 1:01 AM

      Time tae get rid of bloodsucking politicians. Get rid off the EU the fuckers are laughing at us. The sad thing is they will get their inflated pensions and pay affs.
      I am ashamed my party the Labour Party got involved in this dinner party.

      Delete
    2. Eat your cereal, 23. I only need to change one word in your rant to make it a pro-Scottish independence case (albeit a disgusting one).

      Delete
    3. To illustrate my previous point; "Time tae get rid of bloodsucking politicians. Get rid off the UK the fuckers are laughing at us. The sad thing is they will get their inflated pensions and pay affs.
      I am ashamed my party the Labour Party got involved in this dinner party."
      Here endeth the lesson.

      Delete
  2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 6, 2016 at 12:41 AM

    Hard tae believe the British are switching on. Makes ye proud that the not all Scots are Nat sis and crawlin tae the Herman Frog Empire.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 6, 2016 at 7:47 PM

      If we brexit you Nat si subsidy junkies will be crawlin tae Westminster. Herman and the Frogs will do to you as they did to the Greeks. Vote Oot?

      Delete
    2. Eat your cereal, 23, you racist troll.

      Delete
  3. Hard tae believe that 1 person thinks the EU is worse
    than the house of lords.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hard tae believe that 1 person thinks,period.

      Delete
    2. 23 follows his script. He isn't burdened by the need to think.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2June 6, 2016 at 7:52 PM

      The Lords can be abolished.

      Delete
    4. Not by your lot, 23. Your lot have been threatening abolition for a century, and still keep taking the rat-lined robes and expense accounts. Labour will never abolish the Lords.

      Delete
    5. Glasgow Working Class 2June 6, 2016 at 9:00 PM

      Seems you have the burden in thinking for your fellow Nat sis 48. The Lords can be abolished. Still waiting for the Nat sis to at least propose it in the Commons. The Nat sis will come round some day and one of them will enter the Lords.

      Delete
    6. Of course, you don't have to think, 23. You just follow your script and do as you're told, no matter who's doing the telling. And do knock off the Nazi drivel, there's a good little crayon chewer.

      Delete
  4. It splits 52/48 when don't knows are excluded. I think it's important to note that polls only cover Great Britain. Although Northen Ireland and Gibraltar have small electorates, they will likely add 1% to remain between them, which in a close contest could make all the difference to the result.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Its starting to look like England might actually have the balls to say "shove yer union, we'll do it our way". Wish we did.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Wonder if Cameron will ask Nicola for some Scottish troop reinforcements to help put down his Palace rebellion?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Have there been any Scottish subsamples recently? Everyone seems to just assume Scotland will vote strongly for remain. I worry in case there has also been a drift to leave in Scotland as a narrow remain win here would be less useful than a convincing one.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I would also argue there is a noticeable drift to leave in Scotland, it won't stop the majority from voting remain of course, but it is interesting.

    There is quite a lot of myths going round regarding the EU and it is being taken as fact by a fair number of floating voters who in many circumstances, that is the only thing they will consider. Whether they are looking for a reason to vote a certain way is for another day.

    The UK governments general approach to this has been awful and is turning off a lot of people from voting remain WHILST also switching people onto the debate and getting them to vote leave.

    I cannot believe how racist some are, I've also noticed ucockers to have uk ok then vote leave on their car windows....the hypocrisy is stifling.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I wonder if in the last week Leave shows it is set to win the EU jump in with a vow !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think a whole raft of new concessions will be offered by EU and a second Ref will happen with Cameron claiming victory; fully backed by MSM and BBC.

      Delete
  10. It would be interesting if the Scottish government started negotiations with the EU to remain, if Scotland voted Remain, and the rUK voted Leave. Sometimes you have to be bold!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would think that informal discussions have already taken place as Junkers has opined about such a scenario.

      Delete
    2. Can't fing Junker's article, so maybe just a 2nd hand opinion. However here is a discussion paper on possibilities
      written in 2014

      http://www.iuscommune.eu/html/activities/2014/2014-11-27/workshop_8_Tierney.pdf

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2June 6, 2016 at 11:21 PM

      Oh please Angela let us stay we will dae anything ye want hen. Grovel grovel.

      Delete
    4. "Oh please Boris let us stay we will dae anything ye want. Grovel grovel." Fixed that for you, dearie.

      Delete
  11. Whatever way this goes, it will be tight.
    If LEAVE wins, there will be an almichty upheaval to find a fudge between the EU/UK elite.
    Cameron has stated it could take a decade to disentangle the UK from its Treaty obligations ( Greenland took 2-3 years).
    That amount of time gives Scotland a BIG opportunity to find a new path---if we want to, that is.
    There could also be a lot of change within the EU if a LEAVE vote occurs---there are plenty of sceptics in other countries now---again, a BIG opportunity for Scotland.
    Interesting to see Brit Nat Gordon Brewer on the BBC trying to egg SNP supporters into voting leave---the exact opposite of what the SNP actually want; as big a point of difference between Scotland/England as can be managed.
    Same old BBC!

    ReplyDelete
  12. @james, the following from this morning looks like devo max 2.0. They have just made LEAVE a safe vote.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120

    Cheers, George Stewart

    ReplyDelete
  13. If you are saying that in order to hold the UK together after a controlled Brexit, Cammo et al will offer Devo Max, I agree.

    The problem with that cunning plan is that we cannot trust them to deliver never mind when.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They would bugger the pandas before giving us Devo Max. Oh wait a minute, it is the kind of thing those Pig Efffer Brit Nats might do. Then naturally blame the SNP for it.

      Delete
  14. Wait and see.

    Too many options to come before that could arrive

    ReplyDelete