Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Leave edge into the lead in new Survey Monkey poll

Hot on the heels of YouGov, we now have more apparent evidence that the tragic murder of Jo Cox has not affected public opinion on the EU referendum.  Today's new Survey Monkey poll was conducted entirely after the tragedy, and although the one-point increase in the Leave vote isn't statistically significant, there's certainly no sign of the swing back to Remain that many people seemed to be accepting as an established fact yesterday.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? (Survey Monkey, 17th-20th June)

Remain 48% (n/c)
Leave 49% (+1)

Like YouGov, this is an online poll, so there remains the possibility that phone polls will detect a pro-Remain swing that online firms can't.  The Survation poll at the weekend (which so far is the only phone poll to be entirely conducted after Ms Cox's death) showed changes that were consistent with that theory, but they were also perfectly consistent with a normal reversion to the mean after an unusually good poll for Leave last time around.  The next phone poll (which I gather is expected to be another Survation poll in a matter of minutes from now) could tell us quite a lot.

UPDATE : And right on cue, here is the Survation phone poll -

Remain 45% (n/c)
Leave 44% (+2)

Again, the improvement for Leave is not statistically significant, but we now have reasonably compelling evidence from a series of polls (including both online and phone polls) that there has not been a substantial drift towards Remain in recent days.  So the Leave campaign are entitled to breathe an enormous sigh of relief - although opinions differ on whether their current position is strong enough to withstand what may be coming their way over the next 48 hours, I don't see how anyone can seriously deny that they are very much still in the game.

One detail from the Survation poll that will be of some concern to the Remain campaign is that undecided voters don't break for Remain when pressed - they're essentially split down the middle.  YouGov last night did find that the undecideds were slightly more inclined towards Remain, but even if those people had been added into the headline figures, Leave would still have had a very slender advantage.

We've heard a lot about the similarities between this referendum and the indyref, but given the closeness of the race it's worth reminding ourselves of one of the crucial differences.  In September 2014, it always seemed likely that any sort of differential turnout was going to favour the No campaign.  They were doing better among both older voters and affluent voters - two demographics that are disproportionately likely to drag themselves to the polling station.  This time it's a much more mixed picture - older voters have consistently shown themselves to be far more likely to vote Leave, while the affluent are backing Remain.  Those factors may cancel each other out, although if anything the rumours about how the postal voting is going suggest it's conceivable that Leave could even enjoy a net benefit from differential turnout.  So certain commentators may be barking up the wrong tree when they point to the divergence between the final indyref polls and the actual result, and suggest that the current polls are bound to be underestimating Remain for that reason.

*  *  *

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 45.5% (+0.1)
Leave 45.8% (n/c)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 44.1% (+0.6)
Leave 46.1% (+0.4)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 46.8% (-0.4)
Leave 45.5% (-0.3)

(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last seven days. The online average is based on seven polls - three from YouGov, two from Survey Monkey, one from Opinium and one from BMG. The telephone average is based on six polls - three from Survation, one from ORB, one from BMG and one from Ipsos-Mori.)

73 comments:

  1. Thanks for all these reports. I can't seem to access this up-to-date- info anywhere else.
    great job.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Best place (apart from here of course!) is just to search on twitter for "brexit poll" https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&vertical=news&q=brexit%20poll&src=typd

    ReplyDelete
  3. Why are you only analyzing polls that show a bounce or lead for Leave? I enjoy your site, but I take it you are hoping for a Leave win?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I've absolutely no idea what you're talking about, Kevin - I've covered pretty much all of the polls. (The Survey Monkey poll last week was a rare exception - I didn't get round to that one because of the timing. But it showed a dead heat, and therefore wasn't particularly good or bad for either side.)

      Delete
  4. James has already covered the 'telegraph' poll....it's the ORB polls.....

    Anyway, it's funny, but the media seem to be only reporting that one, ignoring the others and ignoring the datasets....

    I assume ICM will have a poll result out tomorrow night...

    I noticed that hedge funds have tasked pollsters with carrying out exit polls, so we should have a fair idea of what the result is through the hedge funds leaking out information

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ICM said last week that they weren't expecting to conduct any more polls, which was a big surprise. (Although it's possible someone may have commissioned them to do one at the last minute.)

      Delete
  5. Looks like this race will be won by the most committed, and those who tend to vote as normal.
    This will favour LEAVE if the "older" voters go the way expected of them. Especially down south where the migrant issue dominates.

    ReplyDelete
  6. @James..the Survation poll in addition to Undecided has a catagory Refused.

    What do you make of that?

    George Stewart

    PS. Its great when you can compare and contrast this to indyref as lessons can and MUST be learned.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Unlike the Scottish Referendum you wouldn't know there was one going on as there seems no signs of an engaged electorate. Perhaps elsewhere there may be signs of one. I would expect turnout to be lower the UK General Election.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I've only seen one window poster for Remain here in Renfrewshire. I've also seen Leave out campaigning in Paisley town centre but they appeared to be totally ignored. As far as turnout goes, I expect middle class Scotland at the very least will come out in force to vote Remain. Also everyone I've spoken to who usually votes say they will vote in the referendum.

      Delete
    2. This election has entered an almost eerie stage on who will actually vote. In the Midlands I have seen a moderate amount of Leave signs but no remain signs.

      I can "understand" how in indyref there would have been "passion" to stay in the United Kingdom because of a multi-century history in particular the 20th Century where Scots, Irish, English and Welsh all bled together in the great wars. But I can not see that kind of passion with supporting the EU. Lets face it, there is nothing passionate to love about the EU even if you are in favor of remain. You may like some factors but there is no passion.

      With polls in a dead heat at the end of the race and the thirty day momentum of the polls, I think the side with passion wins.

      Cheers,
      George S.

      Delete
  8. I think at this stage we are looking at a brexit. The older Eurosceptic voters will turn out in force, the younger generation (nominally pro EU), wont. In Scotland, voter fatigue will keep many people at home - hurting remain even more.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we wake up on Friday to a leave landslide (57-43 or thereabouts).

    The old folks took your independence and now they're taking your EU too.

    Aldo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And thus potentially giving us back our independence (indirectly). Life's full of little ironies.

      By the way, I'll eat my trousers if Leave win by 57% to 43%. If they pull it off, I suspect it won't be by much.

      Delete
    2. Potentially - but in reality there are many, many barriers to independence still, even with the brexit.

      Delete
    3. The fact is, Scotland being shut off from the rest of the world and totally dependent on England will help no one but the Unionists. Any person who would like I see Scotland independent one day should vote REMAIN and nothing else.

      Delete
    4. As far as Scotland goes, I'm not sure voter fatigue will help Leave. Polls show respondents in Scotland as likely to be certain to vote or more so than the rest of GB. Also, if voter fatigue has an effect it's most likely to be on C2DE voters (Leave's best demographic), ABC1 voters are more likely to vote anyway and overwhelmingly in favour of the EU in Scotland.

      Delete
    5. @Aldo

      Are you voting to Leave?

      Delete
    6. "The UK will vote to stay in the EU and that will be the end of it. No referenda + no elections of note, for 4 years." - Aldo, 27 May 2016

      Delete
    7. The fact is, Scotland being shut off from the rest of the world and totally dependent on England will help no one but the Unionists. Any person who would like I see Scotland independent one day should vote REMAIN and nothing else.

      Those facts sound awfully like opinions.

      I would posit that a Brexit would be slightly positive for Yes.
      Some people have already said they'd move from No to Yes because they don't want to leave Europe, and would prefer an Independent Scotland in Europe to a Union Scotland outside it. I doubt it's more than a percentage point or two though.

      I have not heard any arguments or chains of logical thought where anyone switches from Yes to No in the event of a Leave vote. I can't see any set of mental gymnastics that makes that work.

      Delete
    8. If the UK leaves the EU and Scotland subsequently leaves the UK to re join the EU, we will have trade barriers between Scotland and England (with whom we do more trade than with the rest of the EU combined). So it would make sense for someone to switch from Yes to No based on that reason alone.

      Aldo

      Delete
    9. I've went from strong remain to strong brexit to being utterly undecided. I'll probably make my mind up in the polling booth. I would like to be brave enough to vote leave, so I'll probably spend Thursday morning watching footage of Churchill while blasting out 'Jerusalem'.

      It does dismay that so many of my fellow Brits are entirely happy to break up / give away this great country that pretty much built the modern world. If I do vote remain it will be with a heavy heart and done so only to thwart more immediate and dangerous threats than Brussels.

      Aldo

      Delete
  9. What are the rumours about postal votes and how would anyone know?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Well I know of many young folk where I work who are not even registered. The turnout will be 75% at best. That favours the old little Englanders who want to protest about Hitler and Franco..........

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And in return those old little Englanders may give you another shot at independence. You may one day thank those little Englanders!

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 21, 2016 at 8:10 PM

      Bigoted white anti English Joke Nat sis.

      Delete
    3. Non-Glaswegian Blue Tory agent provocateur.

      Delete
  11. @James, a suggestion.....when you quote polls why not put in the margin of error and a lesson to explain what it means.

    Cheers, George S

    ReplyDelete
  12. Would it not be very amusing indeed if England and Wales vote to Leave, but the margin is very small, and the UK is kept in the EU because of the strong Remain vote in Scotland/Northern Ireland? Imagine the reaction from Johnson, Gove, Farage, Daily Heil etc?

    ReplyDelete
  13. If turnout is as low as 55% after the media bombardment of this campaign, it would tell a lot about self-defeating political disengagement. I reckon a turnout of nearer 70%, with the "undecideds" swinging it for Remain. Which would leave me disappointed, I cannot deny, although it would be the right result for the UK - because it would be the wrong result for the long-term goal. Would others here admit to this inner conflict? Come on now, be honest...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I get the feeling from talking to folk that are not political, that they are just pissed off with the whole thing. That is why I think turnout will be low.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 21, 2016 at 10:06 PM

      So you failed to inspire?

      Delete
  14. Addendum: The "Long Term Goal" being Independence for Scotland. Sorry, missed out that bit...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Inner conflict, yes.

      Totally for remaining in the EU. Totally for Indeoendence of Scotland, England, Wales and Ireland from City of London/Westminster

      Delete
  15. What are the rumours about the postal votes? And how come bookies don't seem to have heard them?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 21, 2016 at 8:18 PM

      It is a secret ballot and not run by the Scottish Nat sis.

      Delete
    2. Bookies odds are primarily based on the cash flow directed at a particular result. Big money bets have come in for remain, like the indyref oddly enough....

      Might just be rich bankers making some easy cash as they see it....

      Delete
  16. That would suggest inside information. The money men will have all the connections to know, inter alia, how the postal votes are going.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 21, 2016 at 10:04 PM

      Alec Jim Jung Eck is a betting man maybe he is key to the result.

      Delete
    2. I would discount all postal vote rumours as Returning Officers now make sure that the votes cannot be tabulated as the verification stage.

      Delete
    3. We have sampled some and the samples we took are very encouraging.

      Delete
  17. What is it about this forum that reminds me of swatting midges while trying to have a serious discussion?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 21, 2016 at 11:02 PM

      The Nat sis only have one serious discussion and that is independence and they lost the last discussion. The EU is a side issue but the Nat sis will crawl tae anyone who will provide a subsidy and now they are considering the failed euro. How they hate the English. Nat si fascists.

      Delete
    2. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanJune 22, 2016 at 7:45 AM

      No, you are insinuating that Scotland is a subsidy junkie which is not. That seems to be your only arguement. If you had any more brains you would be very thick.

      Delete
    3. That, and of course his usual sub-Spanneresque bile about Nazis. He's consistent on that, if on nothing else.

      Delete
  18. Re turnout. The SNP - and YES - made huge get out the vote efforts. My branch have not asked for volunteers, and indeed while I know some people have been campaigning for one side or the other, we have not had a general "call up". So I cannot see the turnout being that high at all.

    If the SNP - the largest party in the land - isn't organising GOTV, I suspect the V will SAH.

    I'm looking forward to Friday. Glad its over. Glad people can see how pathologically the bastards lie.

    ReplyDelete
  19. See the weirdo with the Nazi fixation / knicker fetish is back.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 21, 2016 at 11:36 PM

      Hard tae ignore the godess knickerless promoted by the Nat si media machine.

      Delete
  20. "I suspect the V will SAH."

    Oh come on, nobody's under such time pressure that they cannot type such things out in full. I understood GOTV - although there was no need for that either - but wat the Hell does " I suspect the V will SAH." mean?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry. Its late. I'm tired. Voters will Stay At Home.

      Delete
  21. Thanks..understand now. If that were to be the case in Scotland, it could be significant to the overall result.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He has a point. We've done very little here. Limited campaigning in the town with street stalls, nothing in the countryside at all. No leafleting. GOTV? Don't make me laugh. Not going to happen. People bust a gut for the elections just over a month ago and they aren't that keen to go out again.

      This evening saw an interesting spectacle. Two members outside the branch meeting, on their way home, discussing the proposed motion to Conference they'd been tasked with agreeing a revised wording for. The conversation broke up with each saying to the other, vote Remain - no, vote Leave. And they parted on perfectly good terms.

      Yes there is some minor ill-feeling (or maybe just exasperation) at the vote Leave guy, but he's said his piece and not many in the branch agree with him but he's only one vote and we're not going to fall out over it.

      We'll get on with whatever we have to get on with, once we find out what that is. It's a bit of a limbo feeling, as if the vote is in other hands and we're little more than spectators.

      Delete
    2. I think I know how you feel.I feel like shouting " you voted against independence.You voted for London rule.This is your mess.You sort it.You do the voting.You decide if you want to be little Englanders." But that's not going to help Scotland.And that's what we all need to do on Thursday.Vote what's best for our country.Scotland.Thats Remain in my opinion. Ruth Davidson believes Remain is in the best interests of her country.Britain.I think she's right.



      Delete
  22. Rolfe,

    Is that, perhaps, because the remain vote is in the bag? And attaching it to an SNP / independence bandwagon might actually reduce the remain numbers?

    Just asking.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think that has crossed anyone's mind.

      Delete
  23. What I do think, correct me if I am wrong is two things:

    Firstly that voting either way is a bit like being allowed a secret vote in a Conservative Party leadership election. My postal vote is away and choosing between the Eton Boys had me holding my nose.I had to go far away from the stink they create to decide.

    Secondly, there is a Loki in me that wants a Scottish pro-Europe vote to overturn a marginal English pro-exit vote. Whilst that is unlikely, it is not impossible. What fun!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 22, 2016 at 11:02 AM

      The joke Nat sis seem content to follow Thatcherite policies yet they do not stink!

      Delete
    2. I detect the stink of chewed crayon, thwarted entitlement and blue Tory masquerading as red Tory...

      Delete
  24. Dear James

    Would be very interested to know your reaction to latest blog by Lallands Peat Worrier in which he refutes your assertion that brexit could mean increased powers for Scotland?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm not sure he 'refutes' it. He makes a specific point about a fisheries reservation, but other than that I'd suggest he largely glosses over the issue.

      Delete
    2. ...and as always, there may be the common confusion here between "refute" and "challenge/contest" (said the resident pedant. I'll get me coat...

      Delete
    3. Any legal opinion can be taken with a pinch of salt. I argued with him about the Carmichael thing and look what happened, he was wrong about the decision.

      It's all about how the law is interpreted which is what people do not understand about some laws, some are black and white some aren't.

      Delete
  25. If you are a voter in Scotland who wants David Cameron and Boris Johnson to both lose tomorrow (rather than one to emerge triumphantly smug) . . .

    Vote Remain and if (as expected) Scotland returns a strong Remain vote while England (as is possible) returns a narrow Leave vote, Scotland will keep the UK in the EU

    . . . that way we wipe a smile off both their faces, secure our membership of the EU, and send the Tory party into the kind of factional infighting that can only lead to a Labour supported early election, and the potential for care to win through with a UK PM who is critical of the EU for not being democratic enough, rather than for not being bigoted enough

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This outcome cannot be guaranteed, though, amusing as it may be.

      Delete
  26. I see the newspaper endorsements from the same paper changes when they cross the border into Scotland. Biggest surprise is the Scottish edition of the Daly Hate Mail is telling it's readers to vote Remain to save the Union. Gosh. Is that a 2 for 1 referendum? :)

    ReplyDelete
  27. Brian Fleming: (I don't like posting anonymously, but that's the only usable option your site gives me. hence I've added my name.)

    James, I don't think it matters what people actually vote. I expect a narrow but convincing win for Remain, say 55% to 45%.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Care to call it for us, James? Which way do you think it's actually going to go?

    ReplyDelete
  29. Just wonder how different, this could look if 16/17 yr olds were given the chance to vote, this surely must be one of the most important referendums for thwir age group, by the time a brexit takes effect, they will be entering the jobs market, or already in it. They should have been given the vote on this, I think we know why they were not.

    Also, remember that in Scotland, our youngest voters, 16/17 year olds, were engaged and got out and voted. That could have been a game changer in this referendum. Hypothesising, but an important difference between the Scottish independence referendum. In Scotland you become an adult at 16, in england it's 18. Something doesn't match up there regarding rights and responsibilities, especially when it comes to voting rights.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Post financial crash, EU referendum have lost four out of six. They go against the general referendum trend to status quo.

    The biggest loss was last year in Greece when the polls showed 60% for austerity but instead it was defeated by 60%.

    The UK polls are not just tied within the margin of error but they are literally tied (average).

    This morning, I was in a working class area Tesco and randomly asked ten persons how they were going to vote. I can get away with that because of my "tourist accent" as they think I am a visitor on holiday and are happy to speak.

    This random unscientific working class poll showed eight out of ten leave, one remain and one had not decided.

    The Greek people were presented with Project Fear last year and they said no more at the voting both putting the polls on their head.

    Remain needed a lead in the polls to pull this off and they do not have it. James Kelly hits it with his comment on Survey Monkey (horrid name) how undecideds are not breaking to the status quo.

    The base vote for this referendum is 45% which IndyRef Leave UK received. There IS a deep love for the UK built on a 300 year history amongst many Scots. There is NO deep love for the EU by anyone. There may be things people "like" about the EU but its pretty hard to fall in love with the promise of reduced roaming rates.

    I am voting Leave and simply hope for a marginal win as I am inclined to hope for the Parliament Option of "leaving to remain in the EEA." However, based on prior EU Referendum and the eerie nature of the polls right now, and last nights debate, my fear is that Leave could run away with the vote which I believe is the greatest risk.

    Besides if Scotland was too wee for IndyRef and the UK is too wee for UKRef that can only equal NO INDEPENDENCE in any of our lifetimes. The people financing against leave on both referendum are not our friends.

    George S.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Note that my comments are based as someone in England...a lone SNP member.

      Delete